Intergenerational income immobility in Finland: contrasting roles for parental earnings and family income

An intergenerational model is developed, nesting heritable earning abilities and credit constraints limiting human capital investments in children. Estimates on a large, Finnish data panel indicate very low transmission from parental earnings, suggesting that the parameter of inherited earning ability is tiny. Family income, particularly during the phase of educating children, is shown to be much more important in shaping children’s lifetime earnings. This influence of parental incomes on children’s earnings rises as the children age because the returns to education rise. Despite Finland’s well-developed welfare state, persistence in economic status across generations is much higher than previously thought.     

The long-term effects of time-dependent maternity behavior

Using the integral population model of Sharpe and Lotka, it is demonstrated that if the time variation of the maternity function is assumed to only affect the parent population, then standard methods of obtaining the long-term behavior may still be used. Further, if the net maternity function has explicit time dependence, in contrast to age dependence, only for time less than the minimum age of childbearing, the standard techniques still may be used. It is shown that the recent extensions of Cerone and Keane to include exponential time dependence may be applied, together with the above observations, to define piecewise time-dependent net maternity functions and to determine the resulting long-term asymptotic behavior of the population. The population management problem of determining the time path of change needed to approach a given population also is considered in some detail.     

Retirement patterns in Hong Kong: a censored regression analysis

This paper provides an overview of retirement patterns in Hong Kong on the basis of limited data. A censored regression model is used to infer the retirement age from people‘s current retirement status and their current age. This model is equivalent to a restricted probit model, and the interpretation of parameters is straightforward. The results clearly show a negative income effect on the retirement decision. The retirement age seems to be positively related to lifetime earnings but negatively related to the rate of decline of earnings with age. JEL classification: C24, J14, J26 Received May 6, 1996 / Accepted February 5, 1997     

人口活跃因素对区域经济增长影响的研究

从30多年我国各地区的社会经济发展历程可看到一个事实,较发达地区人口在不断流入、人口素质在提高、人口年龄结构较为年轻且负担小。以人口素质、人口流动聚集、年龄结构等为表征量的人口活跃因素对经济发展的影响是不可忽视的。为了准确判定这三个人口因素在经济发展水平中的具体作用和对要素效率的影响,本文从多维度将三个因素综合为一个指标——人口活跃度指数,并将此指标引入生产函数,通过计量分析发现人口活跃因素无论内生作用于资本,还是内生作用于劳动力,对区域经济增长均有较大影响。表明人口活跃因素对经济发展水平不仅仅总体上有积极作用而且对于生产要素的效率有着显著影响。因而在未来区域经济增长和发展中要充分利用年轻化的人口年龄结构,促进区域人口有效流动,提高人口素质尤其劳动力人口素质。     

Educational Homogamy and Gender-Specific Earnings: Sweden, 1990–2009

Several studies have shown strong educational homogamy in most Western societies, although the trends over time differ across countries. In this article, we study the connection between educational assortative mating and gender-specific earnings in a sample containing the entire Swedish population born 1960–1974; we follow this sample from 1990 to 2009. Our empirical strategy exploits a longitudinal design, using distributed fixed-effects models capturing the impact of partner education on postmarital earnings, relating it to the income development before union formation. We find that being partnered with someone with more education (hypergamy) is associated with higher earnings, while partnering someone with less education (hypogamy) is associated with lower earnings. However, most of these differences in earnings emerge prior to the time of marriage, implying that the effect is explained by marital selection processes rather than by partner education affecting earnings. The exception is hypogamy among the highly educated, for which there are strong indications that in comparison with homogamy and hypergamy, earnings grow slower after union formation.     

Income prospects and age-at-marriage

This paper provides an empirical investigation of a theoretical model of the marriage market. In the model, women are valued more for their ability to bear children and men are valued more for their ability to make money. Men cannot reveal their labor market ability to potential spouses until they enter the labor force. At the same time, the relevant information for evaluating females as spouses is revealed at a younger age. The model predicts that the income of males will be positively associated with age-at-first-marriage. We find empirical support for the model. However, we also find the association between male earnings and age-at-first-marriage becomes negative for those who married after age 30, which was not predicted by the model. Consistent with the model, we do not find a strong relationship between earnings and age-at-first-marriage among females. JEL classification: J1, J12 Received August 11, 1994 / Accepted August 10, 1995     

The Decomposition of Economic Outcomes as a Result of Changes in Brazil’s Male Age–Education Structure

In Brazil, the age and education compositions of the male labor force is changing with great regional variation. Based on Demographic Census microdata, results indicate that cohort size has a negative impact on earnings, but this effect is decreasing over time. In this study we consider the impact on earnings by age and education, as well as estimated income inequality reduction and racial differentials. Fertility decline and improve regarding educational attainment had a significant influence on the decline of income inequality in the country. Moreover, the non-white population has been experiencing less success in relation to educational achievement, compared to the white population.     

在校工作经验对教育投资回报的影响——以哈尔滨市劳动力市场问卷调查为例

传统明瑟收入函数中收入取决于个人受教育程度、潜在市场工作经验和潜在市场工作经验平方项,其中受教育程度由受教育年限代表,不包含在校读书期间工作经验,然而,学生在毕业前往往能积累一定工作经验.因此,教育收益估计值包含了在校工作经验收益,导致教育收益估计值存在偏差.为了消除教育收益率估计偏差,使用哈尔滨市就业市场问卷调查数据,估算了两个收入方程——含在校工作经验变量的收入方程和不含有在校工作经验变量的收入方程.估算结果显示,后者较前者在教育投资回报系数上高出28%-44%(取决于对能力偏差的控制程度),这些结果表明传统明瑟收入函数过分夸大了个人受教育程度对收入的影响.     

Effect of mortality change on stable population parameters

The stable population model is used to establish formulas expressing the effects of mortality change on population growth rates, birth rates, and age composition. The change in the intrinsic growth rate is shown to be quite accurately approximated by the average decline in age-specific death rates between age zero and the mean age at childbearing in the stable population. This change is essentially independent of the initial level of fertility in the population. Changes in birth rates and age composition are shown to be simple functions of the age pattern of cumulative changes in mortality rates relative to an appropriately defined “neutral” standard.     

广西人口与经济发展的互动分析

人口与经济的发展有着作用与反作用的关系。总体上,广西处于经济快速增长和人口低速稳定增长的态势。具体来说,广西经济的发展和人口增长具有一定的同步性,但它们之间并不是简单的线性关系;广西人口文化素质水平有了显著提高,对经济发展的推进作用也较为明显;广西人口年龄结构属于成年型,抚养系数较低,处于经济发展的“黄金时代”;广西的第一、三产业的劳动生产率相对较低,第二产业的劳动生产率相对较高,人口产业结构的变动相对滞后于GDP产业结构的变动;广西城镇化水平较低,已成为广西国民经济和社会持续发展的主要障碍因素之一。     

The analysis of linkages in demographic theory

Many seemingly different questions that arise in the analysis of population change can be phrased as the same technical question: How, within a given demographic model, would variable y change if the age- or time-specific function f were to change arbitrarily in shape and intensity? At present demography lacks the machinery to answer this question in analytical and general form. This paper suggests a method based on modern functional calculus for deriving closed-form expressions for the sensitivity of demographic variables to changes in input functions or schedules. It uses this “linkage method” to obtain closed-form expressions for the response of the intrinsic growth rate, birth rate, and age composition of a stable population to arbitrary marginal changes in its age patterns of fertility and mortality. It uses it also to obtain expressions for the transient response of the age composition of a nonstable population to time-varying changes in the birth sequence, and to age-specific fertility and mortality patterns that change over time. The problem of “bias” in period vital rates is also looked at.     

Southern Negro Migration: Social And Economic Components Of An Ecological Model

This paper considers social and economic correlates of age-specific 1950-1960 net migration of Negro males from a sample of 150 southern counties. A model is developed with five components: (1) economic activity and urbanization, (2) white traditionalism, (3) demographic and ecological pressure, (4) nonwhite poverty, and (5) nonwhite home ownership. The dominant migration forces, as evidenced by correlations with component indicator variables, are the "pull" factor of change in nonprimary industrial employment, the "push" factor of population pressure in the nonwhite rural-farm sector, and the "push" of white traditionalism. However, the significance of model components varied when analyzed along age and industrial development continua. In the younger age groupings, industrial employment growth, population pressure, and white traditionalism were dominant migratory forces while in the older age groupings, industrial employment growth and non-home ownership were most significant. For Negro males in agricultural counties, the major migration propellents appeared to be the "push" of population pressure in the rural farm sector and non-ownership of homes. On the other hand the statistical explanation for Negro migration in more industrialized southern counties rests primarily with the "pull" of increased employment in non-primary industries along with population pressure. The importance of the findings for migration theory is discussed.     

The increasing proportion of men with low earnings in the United States

This study has provided an examination of recent changes in the lower tail of the male earnings distribution. Data from the CPS for 1967 through 1978 were used to analyze the increasing proportion of male workers with annual and weekly earnings below a fixed low earnings threshold. Our central purpose was to assess the extent to which the growth in the probability of low earnings could be explained by the more salient changes in the structure of the male labor force over this period. To this end, logit analysis was used to examine the roles of education, experience, cyclical conditions, and cohort size in explaining variations in the probability of subthreshold earnings, conditional on experience and education. The estimates generally yielded the expected effects. However, the most important findings from our analysis concern the trends estimated net of education, experience, unemployment, and cohort size. These variables appear to explain satisfactorily the recent growth in the proportion of men with low earnings among those with at least sixteen years of education. For all other educational categories, our independent variables were unable to account for a major portion of the growth in the probability of low earnings. Our results supplement previous findings of positive trends for mean annual and weekly earnings net of a similar set of independent variables. Hence, we have provided substantial evidence of stagnation in the lower tail of the male earnings distribution--a stagnation not shared by the average worker nor fully explicable by education, experience, aggregate unemployment, or the entrance of the baby boom cohort into the labor market. Investigation of alternative explanations for this phenomenon, such as changes in female labor supply or the structure of labor demand, is clearly warranted.     

Speaking fluency,writing fluency and earnings of migrants

This paper analyzes the determinants of language abilities of migrant workers and the impact of language proficiency on their earnings position. The analysis is based on data for West Germany. The first part presents an ordered probit analysis of the determinants of German speaking and writing fluency for both male and female migrants. The data allow not only to consider personal characteristics of the migrant as explanatory variables, but to analyze additionally the effect of the family context and of illiteracy on the migrant's German language fluency. In the second part, the effect of language on the migrant's earnings position is analyzed. It is shown that language abilities, and especially writing proficiency, considerably improve the earnings position of migrants.I would like to thank John Micklewright, Jörn-Steffen Pischke, Christoph M. Schmidt and two referees of this journal for useful comments and suggestions. All remaining errors, of course, are mine.     

Male labor force participation revisited

This paper evaluates hypotheses which incorporate designated socioeconomic variables and male age specific incidences of labor force participation. Salient independent variables include education, net migration, unemployment, and earnings. The multiple regression method of analysis is utilized with 100 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas comprising the basic units of a cross-sectional analysis. Regression results generally substantiate hypotheses and concur with the findings of previous investigators. But, in contrast to earlier studies, education and net migration emerge as leading determinants of areal labor force patterns; and regression results for men in central age groups are impressive both in terms of the frequency of statistically significant relationships and size of coefficients of determination. These departures from the results of past research are possibly due to the implementation of a more meaningful and rigorous methodology.     

Populations with constant immigration

"We consider a Leslie-type model of a one-sex (female) population of natives with constant immigration. The fertility and mortality schedule of the natives may be below or above replacement level. Immigrants retain their fertility and mortality, their children adopt the fertility and mortality of the natives. It is shown how this model may be written in a homogeneous form (without additive term) with a Leslie-type matrix. Reproductive values of individuals in each age group are discussed in terms of a left eigenvector of this matrix. The homogeneous form of our projection model permits the transformation into a Markov chain with transient and recurrent states. The Markov chain is the basis for the definition of genealogies, which incorporate immigration. It is shown that genealogies describe the life histories of individuals in a population with immigration. We calculate absorption times of the Markov chain and relate them to genealogies. This extends the theory originally designed for closed populations to populations with immigration." (SUMMARY IN FRE)     

Population changes and the cost of health care for the elderly in Poland

"The author...has attempted to measure the effects of population changes upon the costs of health care [in Poland] by applying a simulation model. In this model the total cost of health care is a function of the per capita cost of health care by age, sex, and place of residence (urban, rural) and population structure.... The paper includes...the results concerning population 60 years of age and over." Data are from several official health-related surveys carried out in 1989.     

The impact of wives’ earnings on income inequality: Issues and estimates

We estimate the extent to which rising family income inequality can be explained by changes in the earnings of married women. We develop a decomposition equation that separates single persons from married couples (decomposition by population group) and, for married couples, distinguishes the impact of wives' earnings from other sources of income (decomposition by income source). Despite the rising correlation between husbands' and wives' earnings, changes in wives' earnings do not explain a substantial portion of the increase in family income inequality. Our results contradict those of some previous analyses. The inconsistency of recent estimates can be traced to the use of a variety of conceptually different approaches in the previous literature. We clarify these approaches by explicitly distinguishing the conceptual issues, analyzing the empirical components, and providing comprehensive estimates.     

Effect of adjustment for sex composition in the measurement of fertility on intrinsic rates

The inconsistencies inherent in the one-sex models created a need for the construction of what are known as marriage functions, especially for the measurement of fertility. But attempts to develop marriage functions have been frustrated by the inability of the proposed functions to meet certain consistency conditions and also by difficulties in empiracally determining function parameters. Among several functions proposed so far, Das Gupta's (1972) "effective population" deserves special mention. He uses both sexes in its formulation, and has shown that the constancy of fertility rates based on such a function together with the constancy of survivorship probabilities of both sexes would result in a stable population. It is suggested in this article that the major source of the problem in a two-sex model seems to be the requirement that the model has to be specific both for sex and age. The ideal of incorporating the relative composition of one sex in the age-specific rates of the other, thereby creating a function dependent on both sexes, is advanced in this article. Such functions, defined explicitly for births, can be easily translated into age-specific birth rates. In addition to simplicity in the definition and form, the conditions leading toward stability can also be established. Interestingly enough, the intrinsic rate for this two-sex model lies in the interval determined by the rates obtained from the two one-sex models.