Energizing utility brownfields

Brownfields currently represent an enormous amount of unclaimed potential for the utility sector. Ellen Quinn, Vice President-Administration of Yankee Energy Systems Inc. reveals how a company can increase real estate potential, reduce remediation costs, enhance public image, and abate present and future liabilities by utilizing municipal, state, federal, and corporate incentives to turn unproductive sites into marketable assets.     

Modeling auditor utility functions

Utility functions for profits and losses are obtained on 14 practicing auditors. Data were elicited through personal interviews with audit partners and seniors. The appropriate utility functions that describe the risk characteristics of the auditors and fit the certainty equivalent responses are found using a general summed exponential function and nonlinear programming to obtain its parameters. The richness of the summed exponential in assuming a variety of utility shapes and its mathematical tractability, for example, in manipulating models makes it attractive for expressing an individual's utility function. Use of the summed exponential mitigates the difficulties in assessing a utility function by simplifying the assessments and circumvents the need for the analyst to decide on the appropriate functional form. The empirical results show, for example, that a firm's seniors are less averse to losses than its partners. With respect to gains, a variety of utility shapes/risk preferences are exhibited with most being risk averse for large sums of money. The implications for an auditing firm are then discussed.     

不可分效用函数和经济增长的不确定性

基于Harrison(2003)的实证结果,建立一个仅在投资品部门存在外部性的两部门(消费品、投资品)增长模型,采用在消费和休闲之间不可分的效用函数,得到了具有轻度外部性的两部门增长模型产生不确定性均衡的一般条件,其不再依赖于单位替代弹性和较高的劳动供给弹性;同时结合参数校准经济,通过数值模拟证实了结论的可靠性.在此基础上分别考虑消费跨期替代弹性、劳动供给弹性对经济增长不确定性的影响.     

Missing consequences in multiattribute utility theory

This paper addresses how to deal with decision alternatives with missing consequences in multicriteria decision-making problems. We propose disregarding the attributes for which a decision alternative provides no consequence by redistributing their respective weights throughout the objective hierarchy in favor of a straightforward idea: the assignation of the respective attribute range as a default value for missing consequences due to possible uncertainty about the decision alternative consequences. In both cases, decision alternatives are evaluated by means of an additive multi-attribute utility model. An illustrative example of the restoration of radionuclide contaminated aquatic ecosystems is shown.     

Trade-offs and the precautionary principle: A lexicographic utility approach

The precautionary principle is often argued to be irrational because it cannot adequately explain how resources should be distributed across multiple possible catastrophes or between catastrophic and noncatastrophic risks. We address this problem of trade-offs by extending a recently proposed formal interpretation of the precautionary principle (PP) within a lexical utility framework and using it to prove results about which distribution of resources maximizes lexical utility when several catastrophic risks exist, given different assumptions. We also explain how our lexical utility interpretation of PP can recommend balanced distributions of resources between disaster prevention and other concerns.     

Expected utility expressed in terms of moments

Following a review of the problem of establishing a preference ordering over a set of distributions, the principles of Pascal, Bernoulli and Tetens are discussed. The second section of the paper outlines ways of expressing expected utility in terms of moments, thus combining the Bernoulli and Tetens principles. The paper concludes by suggesting that the Tetens principle contains some very strong—and unacceptable—behavioural assumptions.     

Estimating operational costs in an electric utility

Generation expansion planning in the electric utility industry requires consideration of uncertainties in both the demand and supply of electric power. The expected demand is usually expressed via a load-duration curve, while, on the supply side, each generating unit has a given nameplate capacity and a predicted reliability. This paper focuses on considerations of the supply-side uncertainties and their effects on estimating operating costs in electric utility planning. However, the methods and analysis developed in this paper may be applicable to a wider class of production planning problems which deal with any nonstorable product with time varying demand. Two methods for estimating the energy generation from each generating unit are compared. The first is the method of probabilistic simulation, while the second involves a heuristic technique usually denoted the derating method. A bias inherent in the derating method is examined by comparing it with a probabilistic simulation method. The bias is examined for various load curve shapes. In certain cases, a closed form expression for the bias is obtained. However, a closed form expression of the bias for an arbitrary load curve is difficult to achieve. In these situations some examples are studied in which the trend of the relative bias among plants in the loading order is examined. Finally, the bias is examined using actual 1977 load and supply data for some New England utilities.     

A computer-based modelling system for electric utility planning

This paper examines the development of a computer based modelling system for electricity planning within the South African Electricity Supply Commission. The system is a specialized computer based planning system, which enables the extensive analysis of a wide variety of problems to be undertaken.

This paper explains the methodology and progress of analysis through the system and describes in detail how the planners can progress from forecasting of demand and supply parameters to the proposals for a necessary expansion of generation, transmission and distribution facilities. Finally, the paper explains the analysis required to verify the proposed projects feasibility from the point of view of corporate financing.     

基于Cobb-Douglas效用函数的多属性采购拍卖

在多属性采购拍卖的实践中,利润和赢得合同对供给者来说具有不同的重要性.假设供给者使用Cobb-Douglas效用函数对利润和赢得合同的重要性程度进行权衡,在第一评分拍卖及第二评分拍卖下获得了供给者的均衡投标策略和采购者的期望效用,并对采购者的期望效用进行了比较.结果表明供给者对被采购物品的质量选择只与自己的成本参数和打分函数有关;当供给者越看重获取采购合同,采购者的期望效用越高;当采购者只能使用效用函数打分时,如果供给者更看重利润,采购者应该采用第二评分拍卖节约采购成本,否则使用第一评分拍卖.     

The corporate planning process of the regulated utility companies

The utilization of corporate planning models has been increasingly important to the utility industry due to the uncertainty of energy prices, regulations, financing and the long lead time associated with the construction of power plants. This paper provides an overview of the concept, developments and how the corporate planning models are utilized by the regulated utility companies in the United States and benefits derived from utilization of corporate planning models by several electric utility companies.     

管理控制与和谐控制

本文指出由于委托代理理论的前提假设不合理,因此从这一角度研究管理控制存在着难以克服的局限性.然后在和谐理论的基础上提出了和谐控制的概念,指出了其与小团体控制的差异.最后阐明了和谐控制的意义及其与企业文化的关系.     

Compensation for inconvenience: The utility of shift systems

Abstract

This study is part of a larger study airned at the development of a system for quantifying the inconvenience of shift schedules and schedule characteristics. The results can be used to reduce inconvenience (counter-value compensation) and to compute the monetary (counter-weight) compensability of shift schedules. The results presented here show that consensus exists among subjects from different organizations and with different background characteristics on the utility of several features, e.g. working at inconvenient hours, the irregularity of a schedule, and working during the evening (which has a positive value). The opinions slightly differ with respect to some other characteristics, such as very long shifts, work during the weekend and the average sequence length. The differences are possibly due to job characteristics.     

General return contracts for style goods: expected utility approach

A return policy is commonly used by retailers to hedge for overstock risk. A number of research studies have developed models to identify when the manufacturer should accept returns. However, few of these studies consider the risk attitude of the decision maker, that is, existing papers assume that both the manufacturer and retailer are risk-neutral. Rather than ignore the risk attitude of the retailer and manufacturer, this paper relaxes this assumption and constructs a general returns model through the expected utility approach. An inventory theoretic model is developed and a menu of discount-return combinations is designed for the feasible solutions of a wholesale price discount and buyback price. It is shown that the decision to join a returns contact considerably depends on the utility functions for both the retailer and manufacturer. That is, the risk attitude is a core factor for the retailer and manufacturer to decide if to sign a returns contact, and without considering the factor in the model, the decision may be biased.     

基于秩依期望效用理论的鹰鸽博弈均衡解分析

运用秩依期望效用理论研究鹰鸽博弈模型,在考虑局中人带有情绪因素的条件下研究博弈均衡解的存在性条件以及局中人情绪因素对均衡解的影响规律.研究发现:局中人情绪因素虽然不影响纯战略意义下的博弈均衡解,但对混合战略纳什均衡解存在非常大的影响.如果博弈双方争夺的利益大于双方同时采取"鹰"策略时的总成本,则无论局中人情绪如何,博弈不存在混合战略均衡;如果博弈双方争夺的利益小于双方同时采取"鹰"策略时的总成本,则当局中人同为悲观情绪且情绪指数的倒数之和小于等于1时,博弈不存在混合战略均衡解;否则,混合战略均衡解存在.特别地,如果博弈双方争夺的利益等于双方同时采取"鹰"策略时的总成本,则无论局中人情绪如何,存在且有无数个混合战略均衡.此外,在混合战略均衡存在的条件下,各自的混合均衡战略是分别关于自身或对方情绪指数的单调函数.     

损失规避偏好下的定制件采购决策分析

讨论了有损失规避偏好的按单制造企业所面临的定制件采购决策问题. 由于采购提前 期较长,在产品设计完成之前提前采购,有助于保证顾客订单的按期交货,但是会造成大量呆 滞库存品;在产品设计完成之后进行关键件的采购,会减少呆滞库存量,但是会造成顾客订单 的延期交货. 如何权衡呆滞库存与延期交货,除要考虑各种成本与收益因素之外,还要考虑决 策者的风险偏好. 假定决策者具损失规避效用函数,而且顾客订单不能部分交货条件下,在建 立问题的数学模型之后,讨论了最优采购决策的存在性,分析了损失规避程度、部件需求不确 定性以及部件本身特性对最优采购策略的影响. 分析结果显示,损失规避制造企业的采购行为 在一定的条件下和风险中性、风险规避制造企业不同,也不同于直觉判断. 这将有助于采购策 略、供应契约的设计及供应链的协调管理.     

Solar energy in electric utility planning: A linear programming approach

This paper considers a multi-year capacity expansion plan for an electric utility with the option of investing in solar generation units. It is demonstrated how issues such as randomness on both the demand and supply side of the problem, as well as the varying availability of solar energy may be conveniently modelled under some plausible assumptions, to yield a large-scale linear programming problem. A brief discussion is provided relating to the evaluation of the capacity credit attributable to the solar generation units. Computational considerations, some possible simplifications, and an illustrative example are also presented.     

不同存贷利率下极大化终止时刻期望效用

假设投资者具有效用函数U(x)=xρ/ρ,0<ρ<1,基于贷款利率高于存款利率的实际,运用随机分析中的It公式,得到了个体投资者极大化期望终止效用的最优投资策略显式解,该策略易于投资者操作使用.