非等间隔动态面板数据模型：基于半差分的估计方法和应用

本文提出了非等间隔动态面板数据模型的估计方法,包括非线性最小二乘和最短距离估计法以及这两种估计方法的一步估计量,并且证明了这几个估计量的一致性和渐进正态性。我们使用数值模拟的方法验证了这些估计在有限样本中的估计精度,并且将这四种估计方法应用于实际的问题当中,最终得到了与以往的文献基本一致的估计结果。     

病态加权最小二乘混合模型的k-Liu估计解法

文章综合加权多源观测模型及最小二乘混合模型,组合两种有偏估计算法得到组合有偏估计算法。利用岭估计与Liu估计形成一种新的有偏估计——k-Liu估计,其可以抵抗法方程系数矩阵的病态性,同时可以有效降低参数估值的均方误差。通过构建目标函数导出k-Liu估计在病态最小二乘混合模型中参数的通用解式、均方误差式和协因数的计算式,推导出k-Liu估计中修正因子的计算式,通过广义交叉检核法确定岭参数。最后,通过多种估计法参与算例解算,得出k-Liu估计可以进一步提升混合最小二乘模型的解算精度。     

求解非线性多结构回归模型的加权最小二乘估计法

文章针对基于非线性多结构回归模型的参数估计问题,提出了带权值的最小二乘估计法;讨论并证明了最优加权的存在性和优越性;通过数值仿真分析比较,验证了此方法的精度.     

具有线性趋势的残差自回归模型的估计方法

为了探寻具有线性趋势的残差自回归模型的较为合适的估计方法,文章以残差AR(2)模型为例,对直接最小二乘法、两步法、非线性最小二乘法和化归法进行了Monte Carlo模拟,拟合和预测结果显示非线性最小二乘法和化归法的均方误差和平均绝对误差相同且最小.此外,还利用1980-2013年河南省人均GDP经济数据进行了拟合与预测实证分析,得到了与模拟比较相类似的结果,这说明非线性最小二乘法和化归法是较优的估计方法.进一步地,基于非线性最小二乘法,给出了河南省人均GDP的短期预测.     

协整平滑转移回归中的线性检验 ——基于完全修正最小二乘法的扩展

 在解释变量内生条件下,Choi,Saikkonen(2004)使用动态最小二乘法估计协整平滑转移回归模型,并基于动态最小二乘的估计结果构造 统计量检验协整向量的非线性。本文系统解析了 的构造并指出其不足,针对这一不足,本文将动态最小二乘法扩展为完全修正的最小二乘法,并进而基于完全修正的最小二乘法估计结果构造 统计量检验协整向量的非线性。本文的仿真试验表明,在有限样本下, 与 的检验势没有显著差异,但 的水平扭曲小于 。     

非线性回归模型参数估计方法研究——以C-D生产函数为例

通过理论分析和蒙特卡罗模拟,对C-D生产函数模型参数的估计方法进行比较研究的结果表明：当误差项满足经典假设时,非线性最小二乘估计量具有与线性最小二乘估计类似的、近似BLUE的特性,且当误差项存在异方差时,用加权非线性最小二乘法也能大大改善估计量的性质。     

非线性回归模型的曲率降低问题研究

文章在曲率立体阵的概念基础上,给出基于Cholesky分解的曲率立体阵的计算方法.对非线性回归模型的曲率降低的方法进行讨论,归纳和总结了参数变换法和增加采样法,列举出一部分通过参数变换可以完全转化为线性模型的非线性模型,最后提出一种加权最小二乘估计法,并通过数值仿真说明该估计法通过降低模型的曲率以达到高精度的本质.     

普通最小二乘法的几何分析

普通最小二乘估计法是在目标函数残差平方和的达到最小的条件下求得参数估计量,从向量的角度来说,普通最小二乘法将被解释变量分解成了相互正交的两部分,通过空间向量理论和几何分析方法,可以在欧氏空间内对普通最小二乘估计量进行求解,这种分析过程使普通最小二乘法变得更直观。     

空间门限随机前沿模型的构建与估计

基于空间计量视角拓展门限随机前沿模型,从技术效率时变和非时变两个层面分别构建空间门限随机前沿模型。模型同时考虑了生产单元的异质性和空间相关性,适用性较佳。分别使用两阶段最小二乘法和极大似然方法估计非时变和时变层面下的参数,使用JLMS法估计效率。蒙特卡罗结果表明:此方法的估计精度较高。随着样本容量的增加,估计精度增加;忽略空间效应或者门限效应,估计精度较低。     

最小一乘法与最小二乘法:基于例证的比较

最小一乘法和最小二乘法在估计思想上有着相同的渊源,而在实现路径上有所不同:最小一乘法属于中位数回归而最小二乘法属于均值回归。由此,两者在回归系数的计算、回归直线的性质和估计结果等方面均存在较大差异。文章在理论分析的基础上进一步通过例证,将两类估计方法在计算、优劣势和应用范围做出了比较和分析。     

Nonlinear semiparametric AR(1) model with skew-symmetric innovations

In this paper, we expand a first-order nonlinear autoregressive (AR) model with skew normal innovations. A semiparametric method is proposed to estimate a nonlinear part of model by using the conditional least squares method for parametric estimation and the nonparametric kernel approach for the AR adjustment estimation. Then computational techniques for parameter estimation are carried out by the maximum likelihood (ML) approach using Expectation-Maximization (EM) type optimization and the explicit iterative form for the ML estimators are obtained. Furthermore, in a simulation study and a real application, the accuracy of the proposed methods is verified.     

空间回归模型估计中的最小二乘法

空间回归模型由于引入了空间地理信息而使得其参数估计变得复杂,因为主要采用最大似然法,致使一般人认为在空间回归模型参数估计中不存在最小二乘法。通过分析空间回归模型的参数估计技术,研究发现,最小二乘法和最大似然法分别用于估计空间回归模型的不同的参数,只有将两者结合起来才能快速有效地完成全部的参数估计。数理论证结果表明,空间回归模型参数最小二乘估计量是最佳线性无偏估计量。空间回归模型的回归参数可以在估计量为正态性的条件下而实施显著性检验,而空间效应参数则不可以用此方法进行检验。     

Penalized least absolute deviations estimation for nonlinear model with change-points

This paper studies the asymptotic properties of a smoothed least absolute deviations estimator in a nonlinear parametric model with multiple change-points occurring at the unknown times with independent and identically distributed errors. The model is nonlinear in the sense that between two successive change-points the regression function is nonlinear into respect to parameters. It is shown via Monte Carlo simulations that its performance is competitive with that of least absolute deviations estimator and it is more efficient than the least squares estimator, particularly in the presence of the outlier points. If the number of change-points is unknown, an estimation criterion for this number is proposed. Interest of this method is that the objective function is approximated by a differentiable function and if the model contains outliers, it detects correctly the location of the change-points.     

A SIMPLE VARIABLE SELECTION TECHNIQUE FOR NONLINEAR MODELS

Applying nonparametric variable selection criteria in nonlinear regression models generally requires a substantial computational effort if the data set is large. In this paper we present a selection technique that is computationally much less demanding and performs well in comparison with methods currently available. It is based on a polynomial approximation of the nonlinear model. Performing the selection only requires repeated least squares estimation of models that are linear in parameters. The main limitation of the method is that the number of variables among which to select cannot be very large if the sample is small and the order of an adequate polynomial at the same time is high. Large samples can be handled without problems.     

Non-asymptotic sequential confidence regions with fixed sizes for the multivariate nonlinear parameters of regression

In this paper we consider a sequential design for the estimation of nonlinear parameters of regression with guaranteed accuracy. Non-asymptotic confidence regions with fixed sizes for the least squares estimates are used. The obtained confidence region is valid for finite numbers of data points when the distributions of the observations are unknown.     

Fitting linear regression models to censored data by least squares and maximum likelihood methods

Several approaches have been suggested for fitting linear regression models to censored data. These include Cox's propor­tional hazard models based on quasi-likelihoods. Methods of fitting based on least squares and maximum likelihoods have also been proposed. The methods proposed so far all require special purpose optimization routines. We describe an approach here which requires only a modified standard least squares routine.

We present methods for fitting a linear regression model to censored data by least squares and method of maximum likelihood. In the least squares method, the censored values are replaced by their expectations, and the residual sum of squares is minimized. Several variants are suggested in the ways in which the expect­ation is calculated. A parametric (assuming a normal error model) and two non-parametric approaches are described. We also present a method for solving the maximum likelihood equations in the estimation of the regression parameters in the censored regression situation. It is shown that the solutions can be obtained by a recursive algorithm which needs only a least squares routine for optimization. The suggested procesures gain considerably in computational officiency. The Stanford Heart Transplant data is used to illustrate the various methods.     

Score estimation in the monotone single‐index model

We consider estimation in the single‐index model where the link function is monotone. For this model, a profile least‐squares estimator has been proposed to estimate the unknown link function and index. Although it is natural to propose this procedure, it is still unknown whether it produces index estimates that converge at the parametric rate. We show that this holds if we solve a score equation corresponding to this least‐squares problem. Using a Lagrangian formulation, we show how one can solve this score equation without any reparametrization. This makes it easy to solve the score equations in high dimensions. We also compare our method with the effective dimension reduction and the penalized least‐squares estimator methods, both available on CRAN as R packages, and compare with link‐free methods, where the covariates are elliptically symmetric.     

Quantile regression for robust inference on varying coefficient partially nonlinear models

In this paper, we propose a robust statistical inference approach for the varying coefficient partially nonlinear models based on quantile regression. A three-stage estimation procedure is developed to estimate the parameter and coefficient functions involved in the model. Under some mild regularity conditions, the asymptotic properties of the resulted estimators are established. Some simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the finite performance as well as the robustness of our proposed quantile regression method versus the well known profile least squares estimation procedure. Moreover, the Boston housing price data is given to further illustrate the application of the new method.     

The assessment of tumour response to treatment

Summary.  A parsimonious model for treated tumours is developed as a continuation of our previous work on regrowth curve theory. The statistical model belongs to the family of marginal non-linear models since the only linear parameters of the model are tumour specific and random facilitating parameter estimation. An important feature of the model is that it enables the estimation of the fraction of cancer cells surviving the treatment in vivo having easy-to-obtain longitudinal measurements of tumour volume. We compare several methods of estimation, including Lindstrom–Bates, iterated reweighted least squares and maximum likelihood. The last two methods are computed via the total estimating equations approach and variance least squares. The theory is illustrated with a photodynamic tumour therapy example.