Characterizations of two power indices for voting games with r alternatives

In the first three sections of this paper we present a set of axioms which provide a characterization of an extension of the Banzhaf index to voting games with r alternatives, such as the United Nations Security Council where a nation can vote “yes”, “no”, or “abstain”. The fourth section presents a set of axioms which characterizes a power index based on winning sets instead of pivot sets. Received: 4 April 2000/Accepted: 30 April 2001     

Sophisticated voting and equilibrium refinements under plurality rule

In this paper we show in the context of voting games with plurality rule that the “perfect” equilibrium concept does not appear restrictive enough, since, independently of preferences, it can exclude at most the election of only one candidate. Furthermore, some examples show that there are “perfect” equilibria that are not “proper”. However, also some “proper” outcome is eliminated by sophisticated voting, while Mertens' stable set fully satisfies such criterium, for generic plurality games. Moreover, we highlight a weakness of the simple sophisticated voting principle. Finally, we find that, for some games, sophisticated voting (and strategic stability) does not elect the Condorcet winner, neither it respects Duverger's law, even with a large number of voters. Received: 16 March 1999/Accepted: 25 September 1999     

The C1 topology on the space of smooth preference profiles

This paper defines a fine C ¹-topology for smooth preferences on a “policy space”, W, and shows that the set of convex preference profiles contains open sets in this topology.  It follows that if the dimension(W)≤v(?)−2 (where v(?) is the Nakamura number of the voting rule, ?), then the core of ? cannot be generically empty. For higher dimensions, an “extension” of the voting core, called the heart of ?, is proposed. The heart is a generalization of the “uncovered set”. It is shown to be non-empty and closed in general. On the C ¹-space of convex preference profiles, the heart is Paretian. Moreover, the heart correspondence is lower hemi-continuous and admits a continuous selection. Thus the heart converges to the core when the latter exists. Using this, an aggregator, compatible with ?, can be defined and shown to be continuous on the C ¹-space of smooth convex preference profiles. Received: 3 April 1995/Accepted: 8 April 1998     

A Social Choice Lemma on Voting Over Lotteries with Applications to a Class of Dynamic Games

We prove a lemma characterizing majority preferences over lotteries on a subset of Euclidean space. Assuming voters have quadratic von Neumann–Morgenstern utility representations, and assuming existence of a majority undominated (or “core”) point, the core voter is decisive: one lottery is majority-preferred to another if and only if this is the preference of the core voter. Several applications of this result to dynamic voting games are discussed.This paper was completed after Jeff Banks’s death. John Duggan is deeply indebted to him for his friendship and his collaboration on this and many other projects.     

Aggregation of smooth preferences

Suppose p is a smooth preference profile (for a society, N) belonging to a domain P ^N . Let σ be a voting rule, and σ(p)(x) be the set of alternatives in the space, W, which is preferred to x. The equilibrium E(σ(p)) is the set {x∈W:σ(p)(x) is empty}. A sufficient condition for existence of E(σ(p)) when p is convex is that a “dual”, or generalized gradient, dσ(p)(x), is non-empty at all x. Under certain conditions the dual “field”, dσ(p), admits a “social gradient field”Γ(p). Γ is called an “aggregator” on the domain P ^N if Γ is continuous for all p in P ^N . It is shown here that the “minmax” voting rule, σ, admits an aggregator when P ^N is the set of smooth, convex preference profiles (on a compact, convex topological vector space, W) and P ^N is endowed with a C ¹-topology. An aggregator can also be constructed on a domain of smooth, non-convex preferences when W is the compact interval. The construction of an aggregator for a general political economy is also discussed. Some remarks are addressed to the relationship between these results and the Chichilnisky-Heal theorem on the non-existence of a preference aggregator when P ^N is not contractible. Received: 4 July 1995 / Accepted: 26 August 1996     

The sensitivity of weight selection for scoring rules to profile proximity to single-peaked preferences

Niemi (Am Polit Sci Rev 63:488–497, 1969) proposed a simple measure of the cohesiveness of a group of n voters’ preferences that reflects the proximity of their preferences to single-peakedness. For three-candidate elections, this measure, k, reduces to the minimum number of voters who rank one of the candidates as being least preferred. The current study develops closed form representations for the conditional probability, PASW(n,IAC|k), that all weighted scoring rules will elect the Condorcet winner in an election, given a specified value of k. Results show a very strong relationship between PASW(n,IAC|k) and k, such that the determination of the voting rule to be used in an election becomes significantly less critical relative to the likelihood of electing the Condorcet winner as voters in a society have more structured preferences. As voters’ preferences become more unstructured as measured by their distance from single-peakedness, it becomes much more likely that different voting rules will select different winners.A preliminary version of this paper was presented at the European Public Choice Society Conference in Berlin, Germany, April 15–18, 2004.     

Quaternary dichotomous voting rules

In this article, we provide a general model of “quaternary” dichotomous voting rules (QVRs), namely, voting rules for making collective dichotomous decisions (to accept or reject a proposal), based on vote profiles in which four options are available to each voter: voting (“yes”, “no”, or “abstaining”) or staying home and not turning out. The model covers most of actual real-world dichotomus rules, where quorums are often required, and some of the extensions considered in the literature. In particular, we address and solve the question of the representability of QVRs by means of weighted rules and extend the notion of “dimension” of a rule.     

Generic difference of expected vote share and probability of victory maximization in simple plurality elections with probabilistic voters

In this paper I examine single member, simple plurality elections with n ≥ 3 probabilistic voters and show that the maximization of expected vote share and maximization of probability of victory are “generically different” in a specific sense. More specifically, I first describe finite shyness (Anderson and Zame in Adv Theor Econ 1:1–62, 2000), a notion of genericity for infinite dimensional spaces. Using this notion, I show that, for any policy in the interior of the policy space and any candidate j, the set of n-dimensional profiles of twice continuously differentiable probabilistic voting functions for which simultaneously satisfies the first and second order conditions for maximization of j’s probability of victory and j’s expected vote share at is finitely shy with respect to the set of n-dimensional profiles of twice continuously differentiable probabilistic voting functions for which satisfies the first and second order conditions for maximization of j’s expected vote share.     

Endogenous Voting Agendas

Existence of a “simple” pure strategy subgame perfect equilibrium is established in a model of endogenous agenda formation and sophisticated voting; upper hemicontinuity of simple equilibrium outcomes is demonstrated; and connections to the set of undominated, or “core,” alternatives are examined. In one dimension with single-peaked preferences, the simple equilibrium outcome is essentially unique and lies in the core, providing a game-theoretic foundation for the median voter theorem in terms of endogenous agenda setting. Existence of equilibrium relies on a general characterization of sophisticated voting outcomes in the presence of “majority-ties,” rather than the standard tie-breaking convention in voting subgames in favor of the alternative proposed later. The model is illustrated in a three-agent distributive politics setting, and it is shown there that the standard tie-breaking convention leads to non-existence of equilibrium.     

The paradox of multiple elections

Assume that voters must choose between voting yes (Y) and voting no (N) on three propositions on a referendum. If the winning combination is NYY on the first, second, and third propositions, respectively, the paradox of multiple elections is that NYY can receive the fewest votes of the 2³ = 8 combinations. Several variants of this paradox are illustrated, and necessary and sufficient conditions for its occurrence, related to the “incoherence” of support, are given. The paradox is shown, via an isomorphism, to be a generalization of the well-known paradox of voting. One real-life example of the paradox involving voting on propositions in California, in which not a single voter voted on the winning side of all the propositions, is given. Several empirical examples of variants of the paradox that manifested themselves in federal elections – one of which led to divided government – and legislative votes in the US House of Representatives, are also analyzed. Possible normative implications of the paradox, such as allowing voters to vote directly for combinations using approval voting or the Borda count, are discussed. Received: 31 July 1996 / Accepted: 1 October 1996     

Criticality in games with multiple levels of approval

In this article, criticality within a voting game is rigorously defined and examined. Criticality forms the basis of the traditional voting power measures frequently employed to analyse voting games; therefore understanding criticality is a pre-requisite to understanding any such analysis. The concept of criticality is extended to encompass games in which players are allowed to express multiple levels of approval. This seemingly innocuous extension raises some important questions, forcing us to re-evaluate exactly what it means to be critical. These issues have been largely side-stepped by the main body of research as they focus almost exclusively on ‘yes/no’ voting games, the so called single level approval voting games. The generalisation to multilevel approval voting games is much more than just a theoretical extension, as any single level approval game in which a player can abstain is in effect a multilevel approval voting game.     

On the selection of the same winner by all scoring rules

Different scoring rules can result in the selection of any of the k competing candidates, given the same preference profile, (Saari DG 2001, Chaotic elections! A mathematician looks at voting. American Mathematical Society, Providence, R.I.). It is also possible that a candidate, and even a Condorcet winning candidate, cannot be selected by any scoring rule, (Saari DG 2000 Econ Theory 15:55–101). These findings are balanced by Saari’s result (Saari DG 1992 Soc Choice Welf 9(4):277–306) that specifies the necessary and sufficient condition for the selection of the same candidate by all scoring rules. This condition is, however, indirect. We provide a sufficient condition that is stated directly in terms of the preference profile; therefore, its testability does not require the verdict of any voting rule.     

The inverse Banzhaf problem

Let ${\mathcal{F}}Let F{\mathcal{F}} be a family of subsets of the ground set [n] = {1, 2, . . . , n}. For each i ? [n]{i \in [n]} we let p(F,i){p(\mathcal{F},i)} be the number of pairs of subsets that differ in the element i and exactly one of them is in F{\mathcal{F}}. We interpret p(F,i){p(\mathcal{F},i)} as the influence of that element. The normalized Banzhaf vector of F{\mathcal{F}}, denoted B(F){B(\mathcal{F})}, is the vector (B(F,1),...,B(F,n)){(B(\mathcal{F},1),\dots,B(\mathcal{F},n))}, where B(F,i)=\fracp(F,i)p(F){B(\mathcal{F},i)=\frac{p(\mathcal{F},i)}{p(\mathcal{F})}} and p(F){p(\mathcal{F})} is the sum of all p(F,i){p(\mathcal{F},i)}. The Banzhaf vector has been studied in the context of measuring voting power in voting games as well as in Boolean circuit theory. In this paper we investigate which non-negative vectors of sum 1 can be closely approximated by Banzhaf vectors of simple voting games. In particular, we show that if a vector has most of its weight concentrated in k < n coordinates, then it must be essentially the Banzhaf vector of some simple voting game with n − k dummy voters.     

In quest of the banks set in spatial voting games

The Banks set (1(4):295–306, 1985) is one of the more important concepts in voting theory since it tells us about the sophisticated outcomes of standard amendment voting procedures commonly in use throughout the English speaking world (and elsewhere as well). While the properties of the Banks set for finite voting games have been extensively studied, little is known about how to find members of this set for majority rule spatial voting games involving possibly infinite agendas. We look at this question for two-dimensional games where voters have Euclidean preferences, and offer a variety of new results that delimit areas of the space that can be shown to lie within the Banks set, such as the Schattschneider set, the tri-median set, and the Banks line set—geometric constructs which we show to be nested within one another.     

Majority voting rules and the union success rate in national labor relations board representation elections

This paper simulates how the union success rate in representation elections would be affected if the NLRB reverted from its current simple-majority voting rule to its original majority-in-unit voting rule. Such a rule change would have altered 21 percent of decertification and 16 percent of certification victories over the period 1977–81, resulting in the loss of 180,400 actual or potential bargaining unit members for the union movement. Abstentions play an important role in election outcomes. Under the present voting rule unions have no clear advantage to “get out the vote” in decertification elections, but a clear disadvantage in certification elections. Under a majority-in-unit rule unions hold an advantage when they “get out the vote” in all representation elections. I would like to thank Mike Bognanno, Jim Dworkin, Paul Schumann, two reviewers, and the editor for helpful comments and David Wilson for excellent research assistance. I would also like to thank the NLRB for providing the election data tape.     

On the manipulability of approval voting and related scoring rules

We characterize all preference profiles at which the approval (voting) rule is manipulable, under three extensions of preferences to sets of candidates: by comparison of worst candidates, best candidates, or by comparison based on stochastic dominance. We perform a similar exercise for k-approval rules, where voters approve of a fixed number k of candidates. These results can be used to compare (k-)approval rules with respect to their manipulability. Analytical results are obtained for the case of two voters, specifically, the values of k for which the k-approval rule is minimally manipulable—has the smallest number of manipulable preference profiles—under the various preference extensions are determined. For the number of voters going to infinity, an asymptotic result is that the k-approval rule with k around half the number of candidates is minimally manipulable among all scoring rules. Further results are obtained by simulation and indicate that k-approval rules may improve on the approval rule as far as manipulability is concerned.     

Top-Pair and Top-Triple Monotonicity

We say that a social choice function (SCF) satisfies Top-k Monotonicity if the following holds. Suppose the outcome of the SCF at a preference profile is one of the top k-ranked alternatives for voter i. Let the set of these k alternatives be denoted by B. Suppose that i’s preference ordering changes in such a way that the set of first k-ranked alternatives remains the set B. Then the outcome at the new profile must belong to B. This definition of monotonicity arises naturally from considerations of set “improvements” and is weaker than the axioms of strong positive association and Maskin Monotonicity. Our main results are that if there are two voters then a SCF satisfies unanimity and Top-2 or Top-pair Monotonicity if and only if it is dictatorial. If there are more than two voters, then Top-pair Monotonicity must be replaced by Top-3 Monotonicity (or Top-triple Monotonicity) for the analogous result. Our results demonstrate that connection between dictatorship and “improvement” axioms is stronger than that suggested by the Muller–Satterthwaite result (Muller and Satterthwaite in J Econ Theory 14:412–418, 1977) and the Gibbard–Sattherthwaite theorem.     

Negatively interdependent preferences

We develop a theory of representation of interdependent preferences that reflect the widely acknowledged phenomenon of keeping up with the Joneses (i.e. of those preferences which maintain that well-being depend on “relative standing” in the society as well as on material consumption). The principal ingredient of our analysis is the assumption that individuals desire to occupy a (subjectively) better position than their peers. This is quite a primitive starting point in that it does not give any reference to what is actually regarded as “status” in the society. We call this basic postulate negative interdependence, and study its implications. In particular, combining this assumption with some other basic postulates that are widely used in a number of other branches of the theory of individual choice, we axiomatize the relative income hypothesis, and obtain an operational representation of interdependent preferences. Received: 7 December 1998/Accepted: 24 August 1999