Dairy Industrialization in the First Place: Urbanization,Immigration, and Political Economy in Los Angeles County, 1920–1970*

Abstract Rural sociologists are currently debating the pace and extent of industrialization in the dairy sector of the United States. We offer the perspective of historical sociology to this debate, arguing that time and place significantly determine the outcomes of processes such as industrialization. We present an historically‐grounded explanation for the rise of industrial dairying, which first occurred in Los Angeles County. Beginning with the immigration of Dutch dairy farmers to Los Angeles (L.A.) in the 1920s, a contingent and sequential process—embedded within the local/California political economy—of exploding population growth, rapid urbanization, and skyrocketing land prices led to repeated geographical relocations and expansions of large‐scale dairies during the next three decades. We conclude that agricultural industrialization is not inevitable but instead is the result of contingent factors (cultural and political‐economic) as well as the particular sequencing of events and processes. In thus historicizing the industrialization debate, we seek limited, rather than universal, generalizations.     

Meeting World Growing Energy Needs the Role of Nuclear Power

The 21st century will face an increased population with limited resources. The latest projection of the United Nations estimates an additional 1.65 billion people by 2030. The rising population should access to all modern services and welfare. Resources demand is expected to increase dramatically in the 21st century, especially in developing countries, where population growth is fast and billions of people nowadays have no access to these services. If no new, strong energy-policy interventions occur, the world’s energy needs will be well over 50% higher in 2030 than today. Fossil fuels will continue to dominate world fuel mix (IEA, International Energy Agency, in World energy outlook 2007, Paris, 2008). The consequent growth in energy-related emissions of carbon-dioxide is noteworthy. The challenge is to reach an energy system allowing this growth and assuring security, reliability, and environmental protection. With worldwide demand for energy expected to more than double by 2030, the need for safe, clean, reliable energy is essential. Much of greenhouse gasses emissions is due to the energy sector. Energy supply, generation and use (and its environmental consequences) is definitely the issue of our times and the coming. All technologies may be complimentary for fitting the demand. Known means exist to cut energy demand and change the fuel mix. In this paper, we will introduce the energy issue and show which role nuclear energy could have in reducing emissions.     

Demand Constraints on Agricultural Growth in East and Southern Africa: A General Equilibrium Analysis

This article analyses demand constraints on agricultural growth in seven countries of East and Southern Africa using an applied general equilibrium framework. It finds that both traditional and non‐traditional export crops have limited potential to raise incomes because of demand constraints (for traditional exports) or a relatively small base (for non‐traditional exports). The best prospects for agriculture‐led growth remain in the food sector, where domestic demand represents a large and growing market. Improvements in market efficiency and simultaneous growth in the livestock sectors can help spur demand further and avert falls in prices. Achieving rapid gains in farm incomes, however, also requires investment in rural infrastructure to reduce marketing costs, and demand‐ enhancing growth in the non‐agricultural sector to spur demand.     

Why Agriculture Remains a Viable Means of Poverty Reduction in Sub‐Saharan Africa: The Case of Ethiopia

Although there is much empirical evidence of the importance of agricultureled economic growth, there is a renewed emphasis in development circles on the industrial sector as the main driver of growth, even for the low‐income countries of sub‐Saharan Africa. This article applies a simplified model of agricultural growth linkages to illustrate the importance of agricultural growth for increasing employment and accelerating poverty reduction in Ethiopia. Achieving rapid agricultural growth, however, will require the engagement of small commercial farmers, large enough to adopt new technologies and produce significant marketed surpluses, but small and numerous enough to have spending patterns that drive a large, vibrant rural non‐farm sector.     

Millennium Development Goal Achievements and Policies in Education and Health: What Has Been Learnt?

This article reviews the effectiveness and efficiency of key policy instruments for MDG (Millennium Development Goals) achievement, focusing on the role of demand‐ and supply‐side factors in education and health‐service utilisation. It comes to the following conclusions. First, specific policy interventions can have a considerable impact on social‐service utilisation. Second, demand‐side policies have proved extremely effective in the education sector, but may need more consideration in the health sector. Third, policy effectiveness and efficiency are highly dependent on initial conditions and the specificities of the respective policy. Fourth, complementarities between MDG targets are likely to be very important.     

Linking jobs in global supply chains to demand

The expansion of global supply chains (GSCs) has increasingly disconnected the location of jobs from the demand supporting them, both geographically and in terms of sector. Using data from the World Input–Output Database, the authors examine these linkages across 40 countries over the period 1995–2013, expanding on earlier analysis published by the ILO, and provide evidence of the number of GSC‐related jobs in terms of job location–export destination combinations. Their findings point to changing patterns in demand and supply of GSC‐related jobs, increasing the role of China as a demand generator, reinforcing production linkages between emerging economies and increasing the number of service jobs dependent on manufacturing GSCs.     

WHY CHINA INDUSTRIALIZED AFTER ENGLAND

Although industrialization first occurred in England, it is thought that China, not England, may have been the world leader in technology at the time. Yet, China did not industrialize until 150 yr after England and nearly a century after less advanced European countries. This represents a puzzle because two‐sector neoclassical growth models, such as Hansen and Prescott (2002) , that accurately match industrialization, require that more technologically advanced countries industrialize at an earlier date. I find that a model that accounts for cross‐country heterogeneities in population density accurately predicts the timing of industrialization in China. (JEL F43, N10, N30, O11, O14, O41)     

The new rural-urban labor mobility in China: Causes and implications

As the Chinese economy reforms, a huge new floating population of rural-urban migrants is transforming the urban labor force. This article explores some of the most important reasons for the emergence of the floating population in China. We argue that the neoclassical model alone is not adequate to explain the massive rural-urban internal migration underway in China. Instead, ideas drawn from both sociological theories of segmented markets and institutional economics are used to supplement the standard neoclassical explanation. We found that Chinese policy reforms in both rural and urban areas decreased the balkanization of labor markets and opened up employment opportunities for many rural-urban migrants. In rural areas, a set of agricultural market reforms, starting in 1978, increased farm incomes and simultaneously produced a large surplus labor supply. In urban areas, reforms beginning in the 1980s created an effective demand for rural migrants. Of particular importance was the development of a contract labor system and the emergence of a private sector.     

Alternative Gaming Machine Payment Methods in Australia: Current Knowledge and Future Implications

Abstract

This paper considers the advantages and disadvantages of cashless gambling technologies in the Australian gaming machine industry from supply and demand side perspectives. Exploratory interviews with key industry stakeholders formed the basis of the first stage of data collection, Analysis of these data led to the development of questionnaire items based on innovation models, which were administered to patrons (n =134) of two large gambling venues where card based gambling had recently become available. The supply side advantages of cashless technologies were strongly articulated, and include reduced venue overheads and operating costs. Regulators are primarily interested in the features that may encourage responsible gambling. All consumers acknowledge that the card is easy to use and convenient, although card and system reliability were strong concerns for non–users. These consumer disadvantages are offset where the venue and its management regime are positively perceived.     

Inflation and the misallocation of resources

This paper analyzes the effects of inflation on the resource allocation between the financial sector and the manufacturing sector. We develop a model with heterogeneous workers who can be employed either in the manufacturing sector, which produces a consumption good, or the financial sector, which provides liquidity services. A rise in inflation reduces the demand for labor in the manufacturing sector and increases the demand for financial services. This induces a shift of resources from the manufacturing sector to the financial sector and reduces consumption opportunities. An empirical investigation using 55 countries strongly supports the result that higher inflation increases the relative size of the financial sector.     

THE DETERMINANTS AND STRUCTURE OF IMPORT SUBSTITUTION

In Latin America, import substitution is a synonym for industrialization. Influences having an effect on this process range from the capacity to import (a supply influence) to the output-induced demand for import substitutes in production. Relative prices, changed through the exchange rate, may also switch demand from imports to import substitutes. A time-series “test” using measures of these three variables showed that the sectoral capacity to import was the most important determinant of the pattern and variation in Argentine import substitution (1951–65). Left unanswered was the relative influence that world-market conditions, home consumption of exportables, or factor movements to industry may have had on import capacity. With a mean R² of only .42, it is clear that influences other than the three used have played a role in determining Argentine import substitution. Using measures of backward (demanding) and forward (supplying) linkages, we sought to identify “key” import-substitute sectors in the industrialization process. According to Hirschman, if these sectors expand rapidly and bottlenecks are created, greater than “normal” profit opportunities may occur. The result would be that more private savings may be mobilized and investment decisions made more obvious. Although no such key sectors could be identified, this result is partly dependent on the degree of input-output aggregation, which, for Argentine data, is substantial.     

WAR AND PESTILENCE AS LABOR MARKET SHOCKS: U.S. MANUFACTURING WAGE GROWTH 1914–1919

This paper explores the effect of mortalities from the 1918 influenza pandemic and World War I on wage growth in the manufacturing sector of U.S. states and cities from 1914–1919. The hypothesis is that both events decreased manufacturing labor supply, thereby initially increasing the marginal product of labor and wages. The results reveal that states and cities having had greater influenza mortalities experienced higher wage growth—roughly 2–3 percentage points for a 10% change in per capita mortalities. World War I combat mortalities also had a positive, but smaller, effect on wage growth. ( JEL N62, N32, N92, I12)     

People as partners: Facilitating people's participation in public–private partnerships for solid waste management

Cities in developing countries are facing a double dilemma. On one hand, the urban population is growing rapidly, causing a huge increase in demand for waste management services. On the other hand, the traditional public sector is failing to respond to the increased demand for service. The public sector is constrained by resource and institutional limitations. It is often proposed that the solution lies in private sector participation. It is expected that the private sector, with its dynamism and flexibility, may fill in the service delivery gaps by forming partnership with the public sector. However, a third tier—the people—is often overlooked in the service delivery framework. Citizens can contribute significantly to service delivery. They can support the private sector with payment of service charges. But more importantly, they can play an active role in improving accountability and service quality of both public and private sector. This radical shift in people's role, from passive service receivers to active service partners, however, may not occur endogenously. External help from facilitating agencies may enable the public and private sector to form partnership with people for better service delivery. This article examines the role of facilitating agencies in developing tripartite partnership for solid waste management service in Bangladesh. The key lessons learned are: a number of obstacles prevented spontaneous partnership among the public sector, private sector and people; facilitating agencies were able to overcome the obstacles to form partnership of the three; and, the tripartite arrangement resulted in higher accountability and better service delivery.     

OLIGARCHIES AND DEVELOPMENT IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY: A TALE OF TWO ELITES

This paper studies how comparative advantage and the political elites' endowments shape long‐run performance in economies with imperfect political institutions. The trade regime interacts with industrial policy and regulations on capital mobility in governing capital accumulation. In a capital‐scarce economy, capitalist oligarchs striving for import substitution industrialization (ISI) initially shelter the economy from trade, while promoting industrial policies that promote total factor productivity growth in the manufacturing sector. This gradually shifts the comparative advantage toward manufacturing and renders the economy attractive to foreign investors. Allowing for trade and foreign capital inflows are thus complementary policies that spur growth in the capital oligarchy. By contrast, landed oligarchs in a capital‐scarce economy favor openness to trade at an early stage of development, neglect industrial policies, and block foreign capital to maximize extractable rents. The policy mix causes the economy to stagnate. Consistent with the experiences of South Korea and Argentina in the postwar era, the model predicts that the success of ISI policies depends crucially on the conditions governing the incentives for capital accumulation. (JEL F10, F20, P40, P50, O10, O24)     

上海旅游装备制造业发展对策研究

一直以来,旅游业都被界定为服务业,以提供旅游服务为主,但是随着需求和产业的不断升级,旅游业与制造业融合的趋势日益凸显,特别是对旅游装备的需求不断增长。国务院《关于加快发展旅游业的意见》中明确提出要积极发展旅游装备制造业,从而使得这一新兴产业的地位得到肯定。上海具有装备制造业的良好基础,又具有大量潜在的旅游市场需求,因此,应将旅游装备制造业作为促进装备制造业转型升级、旅游业提升发展的突破口之一。     

THE DEMAND FOR EXCESS RESERVES, LIABILITY MANAGEMENT, AND THE MONEY SUPPLY PROCESS

Commercial bank behavior is not adequately dealt with in existing macro models of the financial sector. The central role of a demand for excess reserves (or free reserves) function in models of the money supply process is particularly suspect. In this paper, it is argued that changes in commercial bank behavior induced by alterations in economic and financial conditions and various banking regulations, along with the central bank's approach to policy, have combined to alter the excess reserve function and the relationship between bank reserves and the money supply. Empirical work presented suggests that the "demand" for excess reserves has indeed undergone structural change. Thus, the study indicates that conventional approaches to commercial bank behavior and the demand for excess reserves need to be reworked.     

城乡一体化背景下上海农业人口发展趋势探索

城乡一体化发展中的上海新农村建设,除了加快农业现代化、改善农村公共管理与服务外,农业人口自身的发展问题不容忽视。目前,上海城乡的人口格局发生了根本性的变化,农业人口已越来越少,本地农业就业人口面临数量和质量弱化等问题。展望上海农业人口发展方向与具体发展目标,在重视农业剩余劳动力转移的同时,必须进一步发挥农业科技对提升农业产业水平、转变发展方式的引领作用,实现生产者素质的稳步提高,培养有文化、懂技术、会经营的新型农民。     

ESTIMATION OF THE DEPRECIATION RATE OF PHYSICAL AND R&D CAPITAL IN THE U.S. TOTAL MANUFACTURING SECTOR

Numerous studies on production and cost, the sources of productivity, and endogenous growth have recognized the pivotal role played by physical and R&D capital stocks. Analysis of the contributions of these capitals often requires measures of the stocks of physical and R&D capital, which in turn requires measuring their depreciation rates. In this paper we specify a model of factor demand that allows us to estimate the depreciation rates of both physical and R&D capital jointly with other model parameters. The model is estimated for the U.S. total manufacturing sector.     

Sector Programme Approaches: Will They Work in Agriculture?

This article explores why sector‐wide approaches, in which donor funds support a single sector plan under government leadership, have performed less well in agriculture than in the social sectors. Many problems stem from the more limited, more contested and shrinking role of the state in the agricultural sector. It is also argued that sector programmes have worked best where the key constraints on sector development are the responsibility of a single ministry, whereas agricultural development requires co‐ordinated interventions across sectors. The sector approach may have a limited role in delivering better focused agricultural services, but fundamental policy questions need to be resolved first. This is more likely if support for reforms is channelled through central economic ministries and other bodies outside the agriculture ministry.