Child Underreporting,Fertility, and Sex Ratio Imbalance in China

Child underreporting is often neglected in studies of fertility and sex ratio imbalance in China. To improve estimates of these measures, I use intercensal comparisons to identify a rise in underreporting, which followed the increased enforcement and penalization under the birth planning system in 1991. A new triangulation of evidence indicates that about 19% of children at ages 0–4 were unreported in the 2000 census, more than double that of the 1990 census. This evidence contradicts assumptions underlying the fertility estimates of most recent studies. Yet, the analysis also suggests that China’s fertility in the late 1990s (and perhaps beyond) was below officially adjusted levels. I then conduct a similar intercensal analysis of sex ratios of births and children, which are the world’s highest primarily because of prenatal sex selection. However, given excess underreporting of young daughters, especially pronounced just after 1990, estimated ratios are lower than reported ratios. Sex ratios in areas with a “1.5-child” policy are especially distorted because of excess daughter underreporting, as well as sex-linked stopping rules and other factors, although it is unclear whether such policies increase use of prenatal sex selection. China’s sex ratio at birth, once it is standardized by birth order, fell between 2000 and 2005 and showed a continuing excess in urban China, not rural China.     

Globalization and changes in Australian international migration

Australian international migration has undergone a massive transformation in the last decade, in part as a result of globalization. Although Australia has long been a country of immigration with a relatively high proportion of its residents foreign-born, the nature of international migration shaping the country has undergone profound change in the era of globalization. This paper outlines some of the major dimensions of this change in international migration. The links between globalization and migration are complex and two-way but there can be no doubt that processes which have accelerated international exchanges of goods, information, ideas, trade and finance and led to an internationalization of labour markets have been associated with shifts in Australian migration. This change has had a number of components which have increased the complexity of the international migration influencing Australia. The changes examined include the increasing significance of skill-related migration compared with other forms, increasing non-permanent migration, the increasing nexus between temporary and permanent migration, the increasing movement of Australians out of the country, the significance of student migration and the increasing significance of migration in influencing Australia’s relationship with its Asia-Pacific neighbours. These changes have profound implications for Australia’s contemporary and future demography.     

Estimating a Dynamic Model of Sex Selection in China

High ratios of males to females in China, which have historically concerned researchers (Sen 1990), have increased in the wake of China’s one-child policy, which began in 1979. Chinese policymakers are currently attempting to correct the imbalance in the sex ratio through initiatives that provide financial compensation to parents with daughters. Other scholars have advocated a relaxation of the one-child policy to allow more parents to have a son without engaging in sex selection. In this article, I present a model of fertility choice when parents have access to a sex-selection technology and face a mandated fertility limit. By exploiting variation in fines levied in China for unsanctioned births, I estimate the relative price of a son and daughter for mothers observed in China’s census data (1982–2000). I find that a couple’s first son is worth 1.42 years of income more than a first daughter, and the premium is highest among less-educated mothers and families engaged in agriculture. Simulations indicate that a subsidy of 1 year of income to families without a son would reduce the number of “missing girls” by 67% but impose an annual cost of 1.8% of Chinese gross domestic product (GDP). Alternatively, a three-child policy would reduce the number of “missing girls” by 56% but increase the fertility rate by 35%.     

Demographic Consequences of Gender Discrimination in China: Simulation Analysis of Policy Options

The large number of missing females in China, a consequence of gender discrimination, is having and will continue to have a profound effect on the country’s population development. In this paper, we analyze the causes of this gender discrimination in terms of institutions, culture and, economy, and suggest public policies that might help eliminate gender discrimination. Using a population simulation model, we study the effect of public policies on the sex ratio at birth and excess female child mortality, and the effect of gender discrimination on China’s population development. We find that gender discrimination will decrease China’s population size, number of births, and working age population, accelerate population aging and exacerbate the male marriage squeeze. These results provide theoretical support for suggesting that the government enact and implement public policies aimed at eliminating gender discrimination.     

Work disability and migration in the early years of welfare reform

The inter- and intra-state migration of American families with work-disabled members is a neglected area of empirical study. Longitudinal migration and health status data from the 1996 Panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) are merged with state-level welfare policy indicators to investigate migration behavior under welfare reform’s emphasis on requiring work and encouraging reliance on social support networks. We use a nested discrete-choice event history model that incorporates the departure decision and interstate destination choice in a single model that tests the effects of state-level welfare policy and economic opportunity characteristics, with state fixed effects, plus family sociodemographic characteristics and social networks, as the basis for comparing migration of families with and without work disabilities. The results show that although families with disabilities and illnesses are less likely to migrate than other families generally, they are “pushed” to migrate if they live in states that do not exempt them from TANF activities requirements. Furthermore, in-migration is inhibited by stringent state welfare illness exemption rules and high state unemployment rates. Intrastate migration is more likely among families who received family and community social support, regardless of work-disability status.     

Migration, fertility, and state policy in Hubei Province, China

Despite China s one-child family planning policy, the nation experienced a slight rise in the birth rate in the mid-1980s. Many observers attributed this rise to the heightened fertility of those rural-to-urban migrants who moved without a change in registration (temporary migrants), presumably to avoid the surveillance of family planning programs at origin and destination. Using a sequential logit analysis with life-history data from a 1988 survey of Hubei Province, we test this possibility by comparing nonmigrants, permanent migrants, and temporary migrants. While changing family planning policies have a strong impact on timing of first birth and on the likelihood of higher-order births, migrants generally do not have more children than nonmigrants. In fact, migration tends to lower the propensity to have a child. More specifically, the fertility of temporary migrants does not differ significantly from that of other women.     

Temporary migration: a case study of Florida

Most migration statistics in the United States focus on changes in permanent residence, thereby missing temporary moves such as the daily commute to work, business trips, vacations, and seasonal migration. In this paper, we analyze temporary migration streams in Florida, focusing on moves that include an extended stay. Using several types of survey data, we examine the characteristics of non-Floridians who spend part of the year in Florida and Floridians who spend part of the year elsewhere. We develop estimates of the number, timing, and duration of temporary moves and the origins, destinations, characteristics, and motivations of temporary migrants. This study presents the most comprehensive analysis yet of temporary migration in Florida and provides a model that can be used in other places. It also points to a serious shortcoming in the US statistical system, namely, the lack of information on temporary migration streams. We believe the American Community Survey provides an opportunity to remedy this problem.     

Will They Stay? Foreign-Born Out-Migration from New U.S. Destinations

Immigrants living in new destinations in 1995 were 2.5 times more likely to have migrated to another labor market by 2000 as immigrants living in traditional places. The researchers look at two competing explanations for immigrants’ differential internal migration patterns, namely that immigrants prefer areas with relatively large nativity concentrations which provide them with social support versus immigrants are target earners who prefer robust labor markets with strong employment growth and high wages. Utilizing confidential Census data for 1990 and 2000, the authors develop new destination classifications for 741 labor markets that take into account the differential growth and composition characteristics of 24 Asian, Latin American and Caribbean immigrant groups living in those markets. The empirical analysis of labor market out-migration indicates that immigrants do not see internal migration as an either/or choice between economics and social support but prefer residence places that allow them to maximize both conditions.     

The Short-Term Impact of Involuntary Migration in China’s Three Gorges: A Prospective Study

The aim of this study is to measure the short-term impact of involuntary migration resulting from China’s Three Gorges Dam project on the 1.3 million persons being displaced. We focus on the social, economic, and mental and physical health impact using three sets of indicators. Using a prospective research design, we gathered information about these indicators from a sample of migrants first before they moved and then again after they moved. Changes in the migrants’ wellbeing during the period, when benchmarked to corresponding changes computed for a control group of non-migrants, are attributed to the impact of involuntary migration. Our results showed that although the displaced have enjoyed a relative gain in housing quality, most of the changes were in the negative direction and many of such negative changes were statistically significant.     

International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows

In this paper, I empirically investigate the determinants of migration inflows into 14 OECD countries by country of origin between 1980 and 1995. I analyze the effect on migration of average income and income dispersion in destination and origin countries. I also examine the impact of geographical, cultural, and demographic factors as well as the role played by changes in destination countries’ migration policies. My analysis both delivers estimates consistent with the predictions of the international migration model and generates empirical puzzles.     

A test and modification of zipf’s hypothesis for predicting interstate migration

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the accuracy of Zipf’s hypothesis in estimating interstate migration streams in the United States, and then to determine whether the predictive power of Zipf’s hypothesis can be improved by adding additional variables. The three independent variables in Zipf’s hypothesis accounted for 57 percent of the variation in interstate migration streams in 1935–1940, 61 percent in 1949–1950, and 68 percent in 1955–1960. The addition of per capita personal income of the states of origin and of destination increased the explained variance by only four percentage points in 1935–1940 and by less than one percentage point in 1949–1950 and 1955–1960. Then, the Petersen-Greenwood hypothesis that interstate migration streams in any period are a function of previous flows was tested by adding cumulative lifetime migration as an independent variable. Over 80 percent of the variation in interstate migration streams was explained by cumulative lifetime mobility, as reflected by state of birth data. The conclusion of the study is that the Petersen-Greenwood hypothesis provides a better estimate of interstate migration streams than does Zipf’s hypothesis. Nevertheless, the Petersen Greenwood hypothesis requires further evaluation to determine whether cumulative lifetime mobility is simply a proxy for some other underlying variable and whether it provides accurate estimates of migration streams for other geographic areas.     

Investigating Regional Disparities of China’s Human Development with Cluster Analysis: A Historical Perspective

This paper adopts both one-dimensional and multi-dimensional cluster analysis to analyze China’s HDI data for 1982, 1995, 1999, and 2003, and to classify China’s provinces into four tiers based on the three basic developmental aspects embedded in HDI. The classifications by cluster analysis depends on the observations’ similarities with respect to clustering variable(s), rather than subjectively predetermined threshold values adopted by major international organizations, like UNDP, to make their classification. By investigating the multi-dimensional clustering results, this paper describes the features of each of the four tiers based on their characteristics within the three developmental aspects, explores the patterns of cross-tier disparities, and tracks the evolutions from a historical perspective. Also found is that, in China, the overall regional disparities have been increasingly attributable to regional economic disparities.     

Men’s Migration and Women’s Fertility in Rural Mozambique

Labor migration profoundly affects households throughout rural Africa. This study looks at how men’s labor migration influences marital fertility in a context where such migration has been massive while its economic returns are increasingly uncertain. Using data from a survey of married women in southern Mozambique, we start with an event-history analysis of birth rates among women married to migrants and those married to nonmigrants. The model detects a lower birth rate among migrants’ wives, which tends to be partially compensated for by an increased birth rate upon cessation of migration. An analysis of women’s lifetime fertility shows that it decreases as the time spent in migration by their husbands accrues. When we compare reproductive intentions stated by respondents with migrant and nonmigrant husbands, we find that migrants’ wives are more likely to want another child regardless of the number of living children, but the difference is significant only for women who see migration as economically benefiting their households. Yet, such women are also significantly more likely to use modern contraception than other women. We interpret these results in light of the debate on enhancing versus disrupting effects of labor migration on families and households in contemporary developing settings.     

Family and neighborhood sources of socioeconomic inequality in children’s achievement

We examined family and neighborhood sources of socioeconomic inequality in children’s reading and mathematics achievement using data from the 2000–2001 Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Survey. To describe inequality in achievement scores, we used Gini coefficients and concentration indices and multilevel regression models. We found no inequality in children’s achievement by family income when other variables in the model were held constant. Mother’s reading scores and average neighborhood levels of income accounted for the largest proportion of inequality in children’s achievement. Neighborhood economic status appears to be strongly associated with children’s skills acquisition.     

Dual-earner migration. Earnings gains, employment and self-selection

This paper examines how spouses in dual-earner couples weigh each partner’s expected wage growth in the decision to migrate. Previous research suggests that husbands’ job prospects dominate the migration choice irrespective of their relative earnings potential. Based on British panel data, this paper employs an endogenous switching model and estimates wage differentials of migrating vs. staying for husbands and wives corrected for double selectivity of migration and employment. Dual-earner couples attach a positive weight to each partner’s expected wage gains when deciding to migrate. Moreover, migrant wives’ employment decreases temporarily, and there are significant selection effects in migration and employment amongst non-migrants.     

Center-Based Care in the Context of One-Child Policy in China: Do Child Gender and Siblings Matter?

We examined the effects of child gender and siblings on center-based care enrollment in the context of China’s one-child policy and its tradition of preference to have many children, especially sons. Using data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) 2000 wave and multilevel logistic regression models, we found that children without siblings consistently had higher odds of receiving center-based care than those with siblings, while there was no evidence that child gender mattered. Further analyses did not show evidence that the effects of child gender and siblings were moderated by household and community resources or local one-child policy. However, we did find that the presence of male, older, or school-age siblings (as compared to female, younger, or preschool-age siblings) reduced preschoolers’ odds of receiving center-based care. This was possibly because parents valued formal education much more than preschools and thus focused more on boys when they entered elementary schools than on their sisters or younger brothers. These findings suggest that more attention needs to be given to the equal education opportunities for boys and girls as well as for children with and without siblings.     

Are Father’s or Mother’s Socioeconomic Characteristics More Important Influences on Student Performance? Recent International Evidence

Since the early 1970s the importance of mothers’ socioeconomic characteristics on their children’s educational and occupational attainment has been acknowledged. However, it is not clear if fathers’ characteristics have a stronger influence because men usually have stronger attachments to the labour market, or alternatively mothers’ characteristics are more important because of their greater role in children’s socialization. This study addresses this question by comparing the influence of father’s and mother’s education and occupation on student performance in literacy and numeracy using data from 30 countries. The impact of mother’s education is usually greater or comparable to that of father’s education. In contrast, substantially stronger effects for mother’s occupational status compared to father’s were rare. In most countries the impact of mother’s socioeconomic characteristics (education plus occupation) on student performance is comparable to that for father’s. Of the four indicators of socioeconomic background, father’s occupational status and mother’s educational attainment tend to have stronger effects, although many countries do not conform to this pattern. There are indications that the relative importance of mother’s characteristics have increased over time.

Changes in household formation and composition in China since the mid-twentieth century

China has experienced great changes in household formation and composition since the mid-twentieth century, and its mean size of households has fallen from 54 persons in 1947 to 3.1 in 2005. Many of these changes, especially those taking place in the early years of the People’s Republic, have not been systematically investigated. This paper examines the impact of China’s major political, social, demographic and economic changes on household formation and composition. The study shows that changes in Chinese households have not followed a simple linear trajectory, but shown, considerable fluctuations. A drastic increase in the number of households and a sharp reduction in the mean size of households were recorded after the land reform in the early 1950s. In the next twenty years, high fertility was promoted by a generally pronatalist environment, and the mean size of households increased. Since the early 1970s, the nationwide family planning campaign has led to a rapid fertility decline and great chanes in kinship structure. The recent rise in rural-urban migration has also resulted in many unprecedented changes, and they have become major forces affecting household formation and family life in contemporary China.     

Skilled temporary and permanent immigrants in the United States

The US temporary migration system is closely intertwined with the permanent system. First, this paper defines the various temporary and permanent admission categories. It presents available statistics on the occupations of temporary migrants upon admission and upon adjustment to permanent residency, especially since the Immigration Act of 1990 went into effect in 1992. There has been a sizable increase in the number of temporary workers over the past few years and those who adjust from specialty workers (H-1B) and intracompany transferee (L) have increased the overall skill composition of permanent immigrants. Secondly, the paper reviews the literature on the labor market impact of temporary migrants in academics and in the private sector. While there are marked concentrations of foreign-born workers among the college educated and especially Ph.D.s, the literature raises concerns but does not establish adverse effects (wage differentials, unemployment, etc.). There is, however, reason for some concern given trends in the postdoctoral labor market and for employersin `job shops' who undercut US workers with temporary workers.     

Sri Lankan female domestic workers overseas: mothering their children from a distance

Sri Lanka is one of three countries in Asia, along with the Philippines and Indonesia, where women migrants constitute between 60 and 70% of legal migrants; these female migrants are mainly employed overseas as domestic workers. Since the 1980s, the out-migration of Sri Lankan females for employment abroad surpassed that of males and the major destination has been countries in the Middle East. The majority of these women are married and have at least one child; they leave their children in the care of other family members in their absence. While they usually make arrangements to accommodate the spatial separation forced by migration, their migration poses many challenges to themselves and their children left behind. Recently, the issue of children left behind by migrant mothers has attracted growing attention from policy makers in Sri Lanka. Since the social and emotional ramifications of mothering from a distance and how these mothers cope with them are inadequately investigated, this article uses data collected from a 2008 survey of 400 Sri Lankan female migrant families to examine the effects of mothers’ migration on how they are mothering their children from a distance, and how they perceive the effects on their children. The article concludes with some suggested policy recommendations.