80年代以来我国少数民族出生人口性别比与生育水平变化的历史回顾

本文以“四普”、“五普”数据为基础,采用人口间接估计技术对20世纪80年代以来我国少数民族人口的生育水平和出生人口性别比变化的历史过程进行回顾,探讨生育水平下降过程中,出生人口性别比的变化趋势,并以蒙古族、回族和维吾尔族为例进行对比分析,结果表明当生育水平下降到较低水平时与出生人口性别比之间有明显的相关关系。     

基于出生队列的中国人口性别结构特征分析

一个国家的人口性别结构主要由出生人口性别比、死亡人口性别比、国际迁移人口性别比共同决定。中国并非移民国家,人口性别比结构主要由出生人口性别比和死亡人口性别比共同决定。本文利用各年普查数据进行估算和预测,构建连续的出生队列并以此数据对我国人口性别结构进行分析。研究认为中国人口性别比长期持续偏高,而在我国的生育文化特征下女性人口在低龄组更容易被瞒报,所以统计数据的瞒报、漏报在一定程度上夸大了低龄组人口性别比偏高的程度,但不能把瞒报、漏报认定为性别比偏高的主因。根据生物学一般规律,在同等客观条件下男性的死亡概率在任何年龄均高于女性,总体上同一出生队列的人口从出生到进入婚龄,男性死亡人口规模大于女性,所以婚龄人口性别比在没有国际人口迁移影响的前提下必然要小于出生人口性别比。低年龄组死亡人口性别比对于婚龄人口性别比具有重要影响,但由于科技进步和医疗水平的提高,死亡率不断降低,死亡人口性别比不会给婚龄人口性别比带来决定性的影响,不会改变出生人口性别比偏高会导致婚龄人口性别比偏高的基本事实。通过对2020年婚龄人口相应出生队列的分析,认为无论采用哪种数据来源和方法计算,持续偏高的出生人口性别比必然会导致婚龄人口性别比失衡,进而导致一系列的社会、经济以及文化问题。     

云南省出生人口性别比基本特征及治理对策分析

本文利用我国最近两次人口普查和2005年1％的人口抽样调查汇总数据对云南省出生人口性别比的基本特征进行分析后发现:我国出生人口性别比自80年代开始就一直处于失衡状态,但云南省出现了一定程度的滞后性,云南省出生人口性别比偏高在2000年以后才开始凸显出来,2005年之后一直处于110-113的水平之间,波动变化较小;出生人口性别比结构失衡的水平与全国相比有所降低,但失衡的程度却在不断加剧;出生人口性别比出现了随孩次的增加而升高的特征;另外,出生人口性别比的区域差异特别明显,这不仅表现在城乡之间,也表现在各州市之间.为了实现优化云南省人口结构以促进社会经济可持续发展的目的,我们提出了一些治理性别比偏高的治理对策和建议以供相关部门参考.     

浅析福建省出生人口性别比偏高的原因及治理对策

岀生人口性别比失衡的问题,已成为我国人口发展的重要问题,也是影响我国人口安全的重大隐患。本文试图通过对福建省出生人口性别比偏高的原因解析,为找到符合本地区情况的、有效的解决方法提供依据。福建省出生人口性别比的特征统计数据显示:2000年"五普"以前,福建省出生人口性别比与全国出     

对出生人口性别比偏高治理工作的再认识——以浙江省为例

我国出生人口性别比升高始于20世纪80年代,至今已长达20多年。"六普"显示,全国出生人口性别比为118.06,显著高于正常值上限107。出生人口性别比持续、普遍、显著偏高,已成为当前我国人口发展中的一个突出问题。浙江省出生人口性别比升高先于全国,在1990年"四普"时就高达118.09,为当时全国之最。后经全省上下积极努力,至2000年"五普"降至113.86。此后,全省的出生人口性别比一直徘徊在113左右。然而,近几年又出现了升高趋势,"六普"统计,全省出生人口性别比高达118,相当于全国的平均水平。面对出生人口性别比的     

中韩出生人口性别比偏高现象之审视

中韩两国在出生人口性别比的变化特点、出生人口性别比偏高产生的原因等方面有着极为相似之处,总结韩国应对出生人口性别比偏高的措施和做法．特别是通过促进妇女政策环境的形成和建立社会性别平等机制来治理出生人口性别比偏高的经验。对于中国具有十分重要的借鉴作用。     

综合治理出生人口性别比失衡促进社会管理改革创新

据第六次全国人口普查反映,我国出生人口的性别比是118.06,比2000年人口普查的出生人口性别比116.86提高了1.2个百分点。出生人口性别比偏高问题已经成为一个严重的社会问题。在全国许多地方出生人口性别比严重偏高的情况下,浙江省湖州市却连续24年保持了出生人口性别比的正常。     

出生人口性别比周期性波动研究——兼论中国出生人口性别比的变化趋势

在观察数据基础上,描述出生人口性别比周期性波动现象,并对其内在机理做出解释。研究发现,出生人口性别比的周期性波动是一个普遍规律,其波动周期与生育间隔相关。正常情况下,周期成分对出生人口性别比的变化影响较小并且稳定。中国出生人口性别比的周期成分明显大于其他国家,这与中国强烈的性别偏好有关。周期成分不是影响中国出生人口性别比的主要因素,性别选择行为是出生人口性别比失衡的主要原因。在实际工作中应该尊重出生人口性别比周期性波动的客观规律,关注出生人口性别比的中长期变化趋势。中国出生人口性别比的"拐点"已经出现,在继续加强综合治理工作的条件下,出生人口性别比将进入下降过程。     

八十年代福建人口性别、年龄构成的变化

我国在1982年和1990年进行了第三、第四次人口普查。各种人口现象在八十年代间的变化，基本上可以从两次人口普查资料的对比中反映出来。本文通过这一方法分析这一时期福建省人口性别、年龄构成的变化。一、人口性别比的变化1．八十年代福建总人口的性别比变动八十年代福建总人口性别比的变化幅度不大。根据第四次人口普查，1990年7月里口福建省总人口为30，048，275人，其中男性15，434，048人，占51．56％，女性14，614，227入，占4864％，人D性别比为10561。这一数字与“三普”福建总人口性别比105．92相比略有下降，也低于全国“四普”…     

出生人口性别比偏高问题刍议

20世纪80年代以来,我国出生人口性别比异常升高,这势必将成为威胁我国人口安全的严重人口问题和社会问题。一、影响出生人口性别比升高的多元因素许多人把出生人口性别比偏高的原因单纯归咎为推行计划生育政策,这种说法有失偏颇。如：即使在没有实行计划生育政策的一些较发达国家或地区也出现了出生人口性别比偏高现象。此外,虽     

Inheritance of sex ratio in the Kanzawa spider mite,Tetranychus kanzawai Kishida

Summary The frequency distributions in sex ratios of offspring from 4 fieldTetranychus kanzawai populations were examined. No significant difference was observed between average sex ratios of the 4 populations, although there was a great variability within each population, especially in the population fromPueraia lobata. Using the population fromP. lobata, inbred lines with high (H) and low (L) sex ratios were selected. Crossing experiments between H and L showed that sex ratio is determined by the genotype of mothers. It seemed that sex ratio is cointrolled by several genes, with no cytoplasmic factor involved.     

The pattern of changing trends and the regional differences in the sex ratio at birth: evidence from Korea and Jilin Province,China

"The main purpose of this study is to develop explanations for the pattern of recently changing trends and regional differences in the sex ratio at birth in Korea and for Koreans in Jilin Province and Yanbian Autonomous Prefecture, China.... The findings suggest that, since the mid-1980s, sex ratios at birth have risen remarkably in Korea.... This paper also highlights the recent increase in the sex ratio at birth for the Korean population in China, residing in urban areas densely populated with Koreans. As the key forces behind the regional differences in sex ratios at birth, the effects of son-selective reproductive behaviors, which in turn, are affected by the community characteristics, are stressed."     

Sex selection with biased technologies and its effect on the population sex ratio

Current biomedical research on sex selection techniques may soon offer couples the opportunity to choose the sex of their children with greater certainty. A technique planned for marketing by mid-1978 can increase the probability of bearing a son to as much as 0.90. However, couples who wish to improve their chances of bearing a daughter have no such opportunity. The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, a decision-making model is provided which describes how couples should choose among alternative sex-selection methods so as to maximize the probability of bearing their desired number of sons and daughters. Second, the effect of the widespread use of sex-selection techniques on the population sex ratio is explored. It is shown that even if populations have unbiased sex preferences, or sex preferences biased towards daughters, the use of biased sex-selection technologies may result in very high population sex ratios.     

The Old Old — or the New Old?

This paper gives an account of the demographic trends that are bringing about changes in the population aged 80 years and older in Australia. The old old population of the future will differ in size and structure from earlier cohorts reaching advanced age: an examination is made of the contribution of the effects of past birth rates; recent changes in mortality at older ages; the impact of immigration especially on the cultural diversity of the old old; and changes in sex ratios and marriage patterns that result in changes in social circumstances. The indications are that a much more dynamic view of the old old is required. The present report is the first in a three-part study which mill cover social and health trends and discuss the implications of the newly emergent old old population for social policy.     

Sex ratio at birth: Values,variance, and some determinants

This paper examines the values, variance and some possible determinants of sex ratios for the first child and for all children in expected and desired families. For adults in Tallahassee, Florida, it was found that a large majority of respondents within sixty demographic categories chose males for their first child. Of those who actually had girls for their first child, a plurality would, nevertheless, prefer a first boy in their desired family. It was hypothesized and demonstrated that sex-role ideologies were a strong predictor of variance in first-child sex preferences. Sex ratios for all children in expected and desired families were 116 and 113, respectively. If people could choose the sex of their future children, these data suggest that several population parameters might be significantly altered; a preliminary model is outlined which might project some of these changes.     

Understanding the sex ratio in India: A simulation approach

The highly masculine sex ratio in India has increased substantially in the twentieth century, in contrast to most other countries in the world. Competing arguments alternatively posit under-enumeration, highly masculine sex ratios at birth, or excess female mortality throughout the life course as the factors underlying the level of the overall sex ratio; these arguments have not been resolved. Based on population projections that simulate population dynamics, our findings show that small differences in mortality at young ages, persisting over a long period, as well as a sex ratio at birth of 106 males per 100 females, result in a highly masculine population sex ratio.     

从"五普"地市数据看生育政策对出生性别比和婴幼儿死亡率性别比的影响

以"五普"数据为基础,分析全国"地市"的出生性别比、婴儿死亡率性别比与生育政策的关系.本文的分析表明实行"第1个孩子为女孩,间隔几年允许生第2个孩子"生育政策的人口比例越高的地区,出生性别比和婴儿死亡性别比失常越严重;实行较为宽松生育政策的地区比较接近正常.实行较为宽松的生育政策有利于解决目前出生性别比严重失常和女婴死亡严重偏高的问题.     

The Preliminary Demography of the 2001 Census of India

This note presents and comments on the provisional results of the 2001 census of India. For the first time since Independence in 1947 there is clear evidence that the country's intercensal rate of population growth has fallen significantly—from an average annual rate of 2.14 percent between 1981 and 1991 to a rate of 1.93 percent between 1991 and 2001. At the state level there has been little change in the rates of population growth in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, but there are signs of—often quite considerable—reductions in growth rates for most of the remaining states. The provisional census results suggest that there has been a decline in India's population masculinity compared to 1991. But the note contends that this decline is probably largely spurious because females were less fully enumerated in 1991 than they were in 2001. Indeed the sex ratios of the states of Punjab, Haryana, Maharashtra, and Gujarat have become noticeably more masculine, which may partly reflect the influence of sex‐selective abortion.     

Marital migration of the rural population in Beijing suburbs]

The recent increase in marital migration in China among the rural population of the Beijing suburbs is examined, with a focus on the impact of uneven economic developments in villages and of different rates of population growth and distribution, fertility, and sex ratios. Findings are based on a survey of 1981 marriage patterns in a number of Beijing suburban communes. It is found that slightly over 50 percent of the women married within their communes, less than 20 percent married men from other suburban communes, and the remainder married outside the communes. The author observes that more women than men have migrated into the Beijing area and that marriage has been a major determinant of this movement.     

Skewed Sex Ratios in India: “Physician, Heal Thyself”

Sex selection, a gender discrimination of the worst kind, is highly prevalent across all strata of Indian society. Physicians have a crucial role in this practice and implementation of the Indian Government’s Pre-Natal Diagnostic Techniques Act in 1996 to prevent the misuse of ultrasound techniques for the purpose of prenatal sex determination. Little is known about family preferences, let alone preferences among families of physicians. We investigated the sex ratios in 946 nuclear families with 1,624 children, for which either one or both parents were physicians. The overall child sex ratio was more skewed than the national average of 914. The conditional sex ratios decreased with increasing number of previous female births, and a previous birth of a daughter in the family was associated with a 38 % reduced likelihood of a subsequent female birth. The heavily skewed sex ratios in the families of physicians are indicative of a deeply rooted social malady that could pose a critical challenge in correcting the sex ratios in India.