The dynamics of credentialism: Ireland from bust to boom (and back again)

The relationship between educational qualifications and labour market outcomes has been perhaps the dominant theme in research on school to work transitions. A range of explanations has been offered for this relationship, but such explanations have often been quite static in nature or assumed that any trend is linear. This article explores the dynamics of educational credentialism using Ireland as a case study. Using data from the national School Leavers’ Survey for the period 1984-2007, it examines the way in which two dimensions of education - level and grades - have influenced early labour market outcomes over a period shifting from high unemployment to dramatic employment growth. The analyses presented point to both long-term and short-term changes in the education-employment relationship. An increase in the proportion of young people with upper secondary qualifications is found to result in a growing gap in employment chances between the more and less qualified. Furthermore, employers are found to rely on different educational signals depending on broader economic conditions, with grades assuming a more important role in accessing employment when jobs are scarce. It is argued that the Irish example points to a more comprehensive framework for understanding the dynamics of credentialism.     

Transitions from employment among young Norwegian workers

In a large representative sample of young Norwegian workers, we estimate gross transitions to unemployment, education, and other exits in a multinomial logit. In line with received literature, we find that individuals with high education, experience, and income have significantly lower probabilities of job exits. While female education rates have increased to surpass those of males, female labour market outcomes are still more responsive to family related background characteristics as compared with the outcomes for males. Received: 17 October 1996/Accepted: 5 March 1999     

The impact of local labour markets on investment in further education: Evidence from the England and Wales youth cohort studies

The paper focuses on the individual's choice of activity on completion of compulsory schooling – to remain in full-time education or to seek employment – and the factors influencing this decision. Information from the England and Wales Youth Cohort Studies, coupled with labour market data, is used to estimate of logit model of choice and assess the role played by social and market factors. The results show that labour market conditions play an influential role in determining outcomes, particularly in the case of young males with weaker academic qualifications. Consistent with the time-series evidence, we find that participation rates in further education for both males and females are positively related to the unemployment rate in the local labour market, the effects being greater at times of economic recession when unemployment rates are rising. Received: 5 May 1997/Accepted: 17 July 1998     

The Impact of Deviations from Desired Hours of Work on the Life Satisfaction of Employees

We estimate an ordinal logistic multilevel model to examine the determinants of the life satisfaction of employees in Europe. Data drawn from the European social survey reveals that deviations from desired hours of work (measured as the absolute difference between the actual and preferred weekly number of hours) reduce overall life satisfaction, but the effect is smaller in countries with higher unemployment rates. We interpret this finding as evidence that in environments where anxieties about job security are high, having a job brings about a certain level of life satisfaction regardless of the gap between the actual and preferred time spent in the labor market. We also find no statistically significant difference between male and female employees with regard to the impact of the work hours mismatch. This finding suggests that the gender differences which would have been expected in this context are already incorporated in the respondents’ subjectively determined desired hours of work. In fact, further examinations confirm that ‘desired hours’ are associated with both socio-demographic characteristics (in particular, gender) and preferences for labor market work.     

Do Values Matter? The Impact of Work Ethic and Traditional Gender Role Values on Female Labour Market Supply

This article aims to gain a better understanding of the explanatory value of work ethic and traditional gender role values with regard to variation in female labour market supply. Although women’s labour market participation has increased dramatically over the past decades, it still lacks behind that of men. A high female participation rate is desirable for several reasons, for instance to cover rising costs due to the ageing of society. The existing literature has mostly focused on micro-economic and macro factors to explain differences between women in participation rate. However, more recently it has been argued that women’s values may also play an important role in women’s labour market decisions. Work ethic, expressing the moral duty to work in terms of paid employment, is argued to positively affect women’s labour supply. However, it is argued that it can have negative implications too if women who hold more traditional gender role values interpret work and work ethic in terms of housework or in terms of paid employment for men only. This exemplifies the need to study both values at the same time. We used longitudinal Dutch data (LISS panel, 2007–2010) and estimated both cross-sectional and longitudinal models. Both types of models revealed a similar pattern: work ethic is positively associated with women’s labour market participation, but only if we take into account women’s gender role values, which negatively relate to women’s labour market supply.     

A study of Irish county marriage rates, 1961-1966

Abstract This article considers a group of models of Irish county marriage rates. Some of these models account for the major part of the inter-county variation in male and female marriage rates in terms of the influence of a limited number of socio-economic variables. The sex ratio of the unmarried population in the counties plays a key role in all of the models: the female marriage rate tends to be raised, and the male rate lowered, by a high ratio of males to females in the unmarried population. Male rates appear to increase under more favourable economic conditions, as measured by county income per person, while female rates appear to be lowered by increased female participation in the labour force. In addition to these separate influences on male and female rates, a recursive model in which there is a one-way influence from male to female rates, and a simultaneous-equation model, in which male and female rates are fully interdependent, were tested. The performance of the tested recursive model was particularly satisfactory.     

Public expenditures,population aging and economic dependency in Canada, 1921–2021

The slowing population growth and consequent aging of the population in Canada and elsewhere have raised questions of the ability of such populations to provide support to their non-working or dependent, particularly their aged, members. Previous discussions have often been focussed on demographic measures of dependency, but more recent research has shown that, in North American society, the per capita costs of providing public programmes to an elderly member are between two and three times higher than those to a younger member of society. However, these measures have made no attempt to take into account changing labour market conditions. This paper develops measures of dependency to incorporate these latter effects. Calculations with Canadian data (1921–2021) show that demographic and economic dependency in Canada are currently at historically low levels. The numerical results also suggest that the effects of the general increases in labour force participation rates, that have characterized the past two decades, have more than offset the effects of the general increases in unemployment rates, and that future increases in participation rates and, perhaps, decreases in unemployment rates could provide a significant alleviation of the impacts of population aging on government expenditures in the years ahead.     

The Quality of Life of Hong Kong’s Poor Households in the 1990s: Levels of Expenditure,Income Security and Poverty

This paper examines the changes in the quality of life of poor households in Hong Kong in the late 1990s by analyzing their levels of expenditure, income security and poverty before and after 1997. Though there have been significant increases in the levels of expenditure among CSSA recipients, the expenditure among these poorest households in Hong Kong is still below that of non-CSSA recipients. Increasing poverty in Hong Kong is the result of increasing housing costs borne by these low expenditure households, who have to squeeze their expenditure on food and other items in order to meet the rising cost of housing. De-industrialisation and mass unemployment have given capital and the state unchecked authority to restructure the economy and to deregulate the labour market. Many low-income households have been hit hard as they faced redundancy, unemployment and wage-cuts after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. What jobs have been created are mostly part-time, temporary and contract jobs, and there has thus been an erosion in both job and income security. The quality of life of poor households is devastating not only in the sense that their living standards are low, but also that they are socially excluded from the mainstream of society.     

The Quality of Life of Hong Kong’s Poor Households in the 1990s: Levels of Expenditure, Income Security and Poverty

This paper examines the changes in the quality of life of poor households in Hong Kong in the late 1990s by analyzing their levels of expenditure, income security and poverty before and after 1997. Though there have been significant increases in the levels of expenditure among CSSA recipients, the expenditure among these poorest households in Hong Kong is still below that of non-CSSA recipients. Increasing poverty in Hong Kong is the result of increasing housing costs borne by these low expenditure households, who have to squeeze their expenditure on food and other items in order to meet the rising cost of housing. De-industrialisation and mass unemployment have given capital and the state unchecked authority to restructure the economy and to deregulate the labour market. Many low-income households have been hit hard as they faced redundancy, unemployment and wage-cuts after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. What jobs have been created are mostly part-time, temporary and contract jobs, and there has thus been an erosion in both job and income security. The quality of life of poor households is devastating not only in the sense that their living standards are low, but also that they are socially excluded from the mainstream of society.     

Stepping stones for the unemployed: the effect of temporary jobs on the duration until (regular) work

Transitions from unemployment into temporary work are often succeeded by a transition from temporary into regular work. This paper investigates whether temporary work increases the transition rate to regular work. We use longitudinal survey data of individuals to estimate a multi-state duration model, applying the ‘timing of events’ approach. The data contain multiple spells in labour market states at the individual level. We analyse results using novel graphical representations, which unambiguously show that temporary jobs shorten the unemployment duration, although they do not increase the fraction of unemployed workers having regular work within a few years after entry into unemployment.     

The socio-economic status of migrant populations in regional and rural Australia and its implications for future population policy

The migrant population living in regional and rural Australia has been growing, partly because of the introduction and expansion of a number of state-specific and regional migration programs by the Australian Government over the period since 1995. The programs were created in response to both the skill shortages in regional and rural Australia and environmental and social critiques of urban migration. This study uses data from the 2006 Census of Population and Housing in Australia to compare five socio-economic measures: labour force participation, unemployment, income, educational attainment, and occupational status, between the migrant and Australia-born populations. The results reveal that the migrant population in regional and rural Australia now records similar values for the labour force participation rate, unemployment rate, median individual weekly income, and proportion in high skill level occupations to the Australia-born population. The most notable difference is that migrants have a substantially higher level of education, particularly university education. The differences between men and women on these socio-economic measures are wider for the migrant population than for the Australia-born. Recently-arrived migrants are significantly more educated, more highly skilled and higher paid than their longer-standing counterparts. The study also discusses the differences between the larger migrant groups living in regional and rural Australia. The improvement in the socio-economic outcomes experienced by the migrant population of regional and rural Australia and their broad similarity to those of the Australia-born living in these regions strengthen the case for increasing the proportion of migrant settlers going to these regions.     

Natives and migrants in the London labour market, 1929–1931

Migrants are sometimes regarded as marginal workers in metropolitan labour markets. London has long been a major destination for migrants from elsewhere in Britain and abroad. In this paper we examine the earnings and unemployment experience in 1929–1931 of male workers who migrated to London, or within London. We use data from the New Survey of London Life and Labour, a large survey of working class households, the records from which have recently been computerised. Our findings indicate that migrants were not marginal, in fact they enjoyed slightly higher earnings and lower unemployment incidence than native Londoners. Much of the advantage can be explained by differences in average skill levels and personal characteristics. Received: 2 November 1999/Accepted: 3 August 2000     

The labour supply of Indigenous Australian females: the effects of fertility and interactions with the justice system

Indigenous females are among the most disadvantaged groups in Australia; Furthermore outcomes for Indigenous Australians compare unfavourably with those for similar First Nations around the world. There appears to be a demographic transition under way in Indigenous Australia whereby declines in fertility and mortality are likely to lead to an increase in the number of Indigenous people supplying their labour in the near future. This paper examines the determinants of Indigenous female labour force participation with a particular focus on the role of fertility and interaction with the justice system. The analysis controls for the standard determinants of labour supply, but its main contribution is in taking into account the endogeneity of these potential interruptions to labour market participation. These findings are also important because Indigenous Australian females are 22 times more likely to be in prison than other Australian females and hence the analysis has crucial implications for the ability of policy makers to ‘close the gaps’ between Indigenous and other Australians. Once endogeneity of fertility with labour supply is taken into account, there is no significant independent effect on labour force participation and hence policy should focus on the other factors including education and training.     

Influences and Consequences of Well-being Among Australian Young People: 1980–1995

This paper investigates the determinants and consequences of subjective well-being. Although there is an extensive literature on well-being there are few panel studies which measure well-being frequently and over a long time period. The Australian Youth in Transition panel data is used to examine several aspects of well-being: the influence of sociodemographic and labour market characteristics, the dynamics of well-being and its determinants; the isolation of aging, cohort and contextual effects, and the effects of well-being on marital status and labour market outcomes. Women and those married or in de facto relationships show higher levels of well-being. The effect of being in a de facto relationship is sensitive to age. The presence of children decreases subjective-well-being and again this effect is age-specific. Income and occupational statusalso influence well-being with income having consistent effects and status effects declining. The unemployed consistently show substantially lower levels of well-being. Contextual effects were identified, increases in the national level of unemployment decrease average well-being levels in all but the youngest cohort. Controlling for lagged effects, subjective well- being has substantial effects on the odds of being married and unemployed, smaller effects on income and age specific effects on being in a de facto relationship.     

Unemployment and earnings for second generation immigrants in Sweden. Ethnic background and parent composition

This study sheds light on the labour market outcomes of children born to immigrants in the destination country, i.e. second generation immigrants. The study has the advantage of being able to (i) identify several different ethnic backgrounds and (ii) identify the parent composition, i.e. whether one or both parents of the individual are foreign born. The labour market outcomes of second generation immigrants mirror those of first generation immigrants in that we find heterogeneity in labour market outcomes to be associated with ethnic background. Moreover, these outcomes, especially for Southern and non-European backgrounds, are much worse than those for native-born with a Swedish background. Finally, the outcome is more favourable if one parent is born in Sweden compared to having both parents foreign born, especially if the mother is native born.All Correspondence to Dan-Olof Rooth. We are grateful for several helpful comments and suggestions from two anonymous referees. A research grant from the Swedish Council for Working Life and Social Research is gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editor: Christoph M. Schmidt.     

Adjustment failures in an immigrant population: Finns in Sweden

Using data sets from both Sweden and Finland, which have been linked at the individual level, we analyse whether Finnish immigrants who lived in Sweden in 1990 were employed, non-employed, return-migrated, or dead by 2001. The aim is to see how they interrelate with socio-demographic characteristics, and to compare Finnish-speaking and Swedish-speaking immigrants in this respect. Multinomial logistic regression models reveal that there is great variation in the level of outcomes between the two language groups, but that the interrelation between socio-demographic factors and each outcome is fairly similar across outcomes and across language groups. It is foremost the Finnish-speaking male immigrants who experience problems, having on average two times higher odds of being either non-employed, return-migrated, or death, as compared with Swedish-speaking male immigrants. Social disadvantage may consequently not only take the form of poor labour market position, but also return-migration and death. The paper illustrates the need for separating subgroups of immigrants when one is interested in integrational success. Comments from seminar participants at the Turku Centre for Welfare Research and anonymous persons are gratefully acknowledged.     

Residential location and youth unemployment: The economic geography of school-to-work transitions

In response to increased international policy attention to youth unemployment this study investigates post-secondary school transitions of school leavers. Multinomial logit models are estimated for male and female German youth. The models control for individual, parent, and household characteristics, for those of the youth's region of residence and local labor markets. The findings suggest that immigrant youth has particularly low participation rates in continued education, and that youth unemployment is centered in high unemployment states and metropolitan areas. More generous academic benefit policies seem to be correlated with increased academic enrollment, and men's transitions to the military do reflect recent changes in defense policies. Received: 30 November 1999/Accepted: 3 August 2000     

Unemployment and consumption near and far away from the Mediterranean

We study the insurance mechanisms employed by households to absorb unemployment shocks using comparable data for four countries: Italy, Spain, Great Britain, and the US. Results on family transfers when the male household head becomes unemployed suggest that family networks are the weakest in Britain, while unemployment benefits there are instead the most generous across the four countries. Despite these differences, food consumption losses induced by unemployment of the male household head are similar across countries. These findings are consistent with the view that family support and the Welfare State substitute each other in mitigating the consequences of unemployment shocks. The first author is also affiliated with CEPR and CESifo, the second author with EUI, CEPR, CESifo, and IZA.     

Are there Geographical Variations in the Psychological Cost of Unemployment in South Africa?

Are certain groups of unemployed individuals hurt less by unemployment than others? This paper is an attempt to test the hypothesis that non-pecuniary costs of unemployment may vary between societies with different unemployment rates. Using cross-sectional data from the SALDRU93 survey, I show that households’ perceptions of life satisfaction are inversely related to household unemployment for South Africa as to be expected in richer countries. Reported well-being levels are shown to be associated negatively with others’ unemployment at the geographical cluster level for the employed. However, unemployment appears to hurt less for the household if unemployment rates in the local labour market are high.     

Transitions Between Compensated Work Disability,Joblessness, and Self-Sufficiency: A Cohort Study 1997–2010 of Those Jobless in 1995

Associations between unemployment, work, and disability have been researched in many studies. The findings are often based on cross-sectional data and single outcomes. The present study analysed multiple outcomes over a period of 15 years among long-term unemployed individuals. Based on all individuals aged 20–40 living in Sweden in 1995, prospective cohort analyses were conducted. Individual annual labour market proximity 1995–2010 was estimated and categorised into three mutually exclusive categories: “Jobless”, “Self-sufficient” (i.e. main income from work), or “Disabled”. Individuals in the category “Jobless” (n = 638,622) in 1995 constituted the study population. Using autoregressive multinomial logistic regression, transitions between the three states during 1997–2010 were analysed. Socio-economic factors, previous inpatient care, and national unemployment rates in different time periods were included in the regression models. Among those “Jobless” in 1995, 17 % were also “Jobless” in 2010, while 10 % were “Disabled” and 61 % “Self-sufficient”. The transitions were stable over time periods for transitions into “Self-sufficient” and “Disabled” but less so for “Jobless”. Previous state was the best predictor of subsequent state. “Jobless” individuals with previous morbidity had a higher transition probability into “Disabled” and a lower transition probability into “Self-sufficient”. The transition rates into “Self-sufficient” were higher in periods with lower unemployment levels. The study supports the interpretation that return to work was affected both by the individuals’ previous health status and by the national unemployment level. Transition from being “Jobless” into “Disability” may be influenced by previous ill health and by negative health effects of being “Jobless”.