A new evaluation of United States census data on the extreme aged

Population and mortality data for the extreme aged have generally been considered subject to a large degree of error, particularly for nonwhites. In this study, estimates of the United States population 85 years of age and over in 1960 are devised through a procedure known as the "method of extinct generations," which permits the reconstruction of "extinct" population cohorts from a series of annual death statistics. Estimates of the total population by single year of age and of sex-color groups by five-year age groups are compared with the 1960 census. With some exceptions, the data for whites show remarkable correspondence; the tally for nonwhites developed from death records falls considerably short of the census count, indicating a greater overstatement of age in the latter source.     

A decomposition of trends in the nonmarital fertility ratios of blacks and whites in the united states, 1960–1992*

We use a method of standardization and decomposition developed by Das Gupta to update Smith and Cutright’s analysis of demographic factors responsible for increases in the nonmarital fertility ratio (illegitimacy ratio) among blacks and whites in the United States. We create standardized rates for each year between 1960 and 1992, and consistent, exhaustive decompositions of the nonmarital fertility ratio for any interval during this period in terms of four components: (1) the age distribution of women of reproductive age, (2) the proportion of women unmarried at each age, (3) the age-specific birth rates of married women, and (4) the age-specific birth rates of unmarried women. Nonmarital fertility ratios are much higher among blacks than among whites, but both increased monotonically from 1960 to 1992. During the last 10 years, each increased by nearly 10 percentage points. Increases in the proportion of women not married, at all ages, account for the preponderance of the increase in black nonmarital fertility ratios. Increasing rates of unmarried childbearing, however, have played a role during the most recent decade (1983–1992). For whites, from 1960 until 1975, declines in marital fertility were most important in producing increases in the proportion of children born out of wedlock. Since then, these proportions have increased primarily because of increases in unmarried women s birth rates, and secondarily because of declines in the proportion of women who are married. These trends are consistent with arguments that emphasize declining economic incentives to marry and reduced access to, and acceptability of, abortion.     

A vital statistics-based procedure for estimating conception rates

A method for estimating conception rates, using vital statistics data, is developed and applied to data on five-year age groups of California women for 1971. The approach is deterministic and allocates total exposure time to the known pregnancy outcomes of live birth, spontaneous abortion, and induced abortion. The population at risk is defined to exclude women who are known to be sterile or sexually inactive. Early fetal loss, premarital conception, and contraceptive use are taken into account. Estimates are made of the fecundability which would obtain ifno contraception were used.     

Underreporting of abortion in surveys of U.S. women: 1976 to 1988

Although research on reproductive behavior depends heavily on information from surveys, abortions are characteristically underreported in such data. Estimates of the level of reporting are made for each of the recent major surveys of U.S. women: the 1976, 1982, and 1988 cycles of the National Survey of Family Growth, the 1976 and 1979 National Surveys of Young Women, and the National Longitudinal Surveys of Work Experience of Youth. The estimates are based on comparisons with external counts of abortions taking place. We examine variation by characteristics of women, trends over time, and the possible effects of length of recall and of the way in which questions about abortion are asked. Abortion reporting is found to be highly deficient in all the surveys, although the level varies widely. Whites are more likely to report their abortions than nonwhites. Special, confidential questioning procedures hold promise for improving the results.     

Wife’s employment and cumulative family size in the United States, 1970 and 1960

Using a multiple classification analysis of the data from the I percent public-use samples of the 1960 and 1970 censuses of population, it is found that the negative relationship between wives’ employment and their cumulative family size is stronger among whites than nonwhites and is strongest among women married less than 10 years, with 12 or more years of schooling, and who have no relatives living with them. Moreover, although there are many similarities in the pattern of the employment status/fertility relationship between the 1960 and 1970 data, the relationship is weaker in 1970 than in 1960.     

White-nonwhite differentials in occupational mobility among men in the United States, 1962–1972

Intercohort shifts between 1962 and 1972 in the occupation distributions of white and nonwhite men are analyzed and compared at ages 35-44, 45-54, and 55-64. Both white and nonwhite occupation distributions were upgraded over the decade, but among nonwhites the shifts away from the lowest-status occupations were expressed partly in increasing rates of absence from the labor force. There are indications of especially rapid shifts in the occupation distributions of nonwhite men at ages 35-44. Among whites and nonwhites intercohort shifts in the occupation distribution can be attributed primarily to changing patterns of movement from first full-time civilian jobs to current occupations, rather than to changing occupational origin distributions or patterns of movement to first jobs. The white and nonwhite occupation distributions did not show a clear pattern of convergence over the decade. They became less similar at ages 35-44 and more similar at older ages. White and nonwhite distributions were most likely to converge in those occupation groups where the share of whites was stable or declining, rather than in groups whose share of the occupation distribution was increasing. Later cohorts of nonwhites would have a much more favorable occupational distribution if they had enjoyed the mobility patterns of whites in earlier cohorts. In 1972, as in 1962, the inferior occupational chances of nonwhites are due primarily to their disadvantageous patterns of occupational mobility, rather than to impoverished social origins.     

Puzzles and further explorations in the interrelationships of successive births with husband’s income,spouses’ education and race

When fertility is examined in the detail of individual parity progressions and birth-order transitions, important interactions between the effects of income and education are seen. Among the findings are: the negative effect of education on fertility is stronger at all parities for less educated compared to more highly educated women. Additional income has a more positive effect for more highly educated than for less educated women. For women with 0-8 years of education the effect of more income is positive when the family has no children but negative thereafter, but for college-educated women the effect of more income is positive. And additional income has a less positive (more negative) effect on fertility among nonwhites than among whites.     

Homicide trends in the United States

Unlike most other causes of death, homicide has been increasing in the United States, especially since the mid-1960s. Its impact is greatest among nonwhite men. The elimination of homicide would add approximately one and one-half years to their life span. This analysis examines trends and differentials using vital statistics data about homicide victims. A decomposition of components of change reveals that almost all of the rise in homicide mortality among nonwhites and a substantial fraction of the rise among whites results from the increasing use of firearms to kill people.     

Marital dissolution,remarriage, and childbearing

Earlier models of fertility hypothesize that marital dissolution and remarriage influence subsequent childbearing. This issue is examined by comparing the fertility of those in disrupted marriages with that of those in stable marriages. The results indicate that, by transferring women into a nonmarried status, marital dissolution decreases childbearing. The data also suggest that discord reduces fertility even before separation occurs—separated women had reduced fertility during the two years just before separation. It was found that marital dissolution without remarriage operates to truncate childbearing, thus decreasing family size. Dissolution followed by remarriage, however, lengthens the childbearing span of whites and has no influence on average family size; remarrying white women are able to make up for the childbearing lost between marriages. For nonwhites, we found that dissolution and remarriage increase the average time to childbirth, but, even more importantly, these events greatly decrease the number of children born.     

Pregnant women's attitudes toward the abortion of defective fetuses

A survey asked 190 pregnant women their opinions on whether a hypothetical other woman would be justified in having an abortion under ten different circumstances, four of which related to abnormalities of the fetus. They were then asked whether they would be justified in having an abortion under these same circumstances. Also assessed were these women's views concerning the justifiability of abortion for a specific group of fetal abnormalities, neural tube defects. Respondents were more likely to view abortion as justifiable for a hypothetical other than for themselves. However, there was no evidence that pregnant women's views about abortion are more conservative than those of the general public. The majority of respondents considered abortion of a defective fetus to be justified, both for themselves and for others. The best predictor of abortion attitudes was respondent's views about the ideal number of children in a completed family.This research was supported by a grant from Maternal and Child Health Research, Bureau of Community Health Services, DHHS. Reprint requests should be sent to Dr. Ruth Faden at the Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health, Division of Health Education, 615 N. Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205.     

Interracial marriage: Data for Philadelphia and Pennsylvania

Our knowledge of interracial marriage in the United States is fragmentary, inadequate and fraught with contradictions. A major methodological finding of this study, discovered by a comparison of statistical records for Philadelphia (1960-1962 and 1965-1966) with marriage license applications, is that there has been a 32 percent error in reporting mixed race cases. The full significance of this as regards existing data can only be conjectured at present. In Pennsylvania, it would seem, areas of high concentration of nonwhites show the lowest intermarriage rates. In the state, excluding Philadelphia, about 3 out of 4 mixed marriages involve nonwhite males; in Philadelphia, the figure is 52 percent. To some extent nonresidents seem to be attracted to Philadelphia for their intermarriages; but, on the other hand, a considerable number of the 84 percent who are residents declare to having the same address. As measured by the interval from application to performance of the ceremony, they do not marry in haste, nor do they show a strong urge to use their license elsewhere in the state. There is no remarkable age disparity for these couples. They do marry somewhat later—about 2 years later for those who are entering upon their first (primary) marriage; and a large proportion of the couples show a prior divorce experience. These data for Philadelphia and Pennsylvania disclose a tendency, noticed also in other studies, for the rate of such marriages to increase, so that now about 2 percent of Philadelphia and nearly 5 percent of Pennsylvania nonwhites are marrying interracially.     

The Effects of Post-marital Childbearing on Divorce and Remarriage: An Application of Hazards Models with Time-dependent Covariates

In this paper we examine the effects of having a baby during a period of separation on the probability of divorce, and the impact of bearing a child while divorced on the likelihood of remarriage in the United States. Among whites, neither a first nor a second birth during separation had any significant effect on the probability of divorce. Among blacks, either a first or second birth significantly increased the chance of divorce. The function of post-marital childbearing among black women as an incentive to obtaining divorces (presumably to allow them to establish new unions formally) is important, because a large proportion remain separated indefinitely. Whereas the occurrence of both first and second births during divorce significantly increased the probability of remarriage among whites, only a second birth did so among blacks. Further analysis suggests that while the legitimization of births was an important factor among whites, there was little evidence of a comparable effect among blacks.     

Modelling Households: A Synthesis

The 1973 U.S. National Survey of Family Growth is used to examine the effects of removing number and timing failures from the reproductive histories of various cohorts of white and black married women. Blacks are more fertile than whites primarily because of their greater unwanted fertility. Removing number and timing failures from the past reproductive histories of American women would have reduced their fertility considerably. These reductions would have been greater for blacks than for whites and would be greater if some wanted pregnancies had continued to terminate in foetal loss.     

The differential attainment of family size goals by Race

Summary The 1973 U.S. National Survey of Family Growth is used to examine the effects of removing number and timing failures from the reproductive histories of various cohorts of white and black married women. Blacks are more fertile than whites primarily because of their greater unwanted fertility. Removing number and timing failures from the past reproductive histories of American women would have reduced their fertility considerably. These reductions would have been greater for blacks than for whites and would be greater if some wanted pregnancies had continued to terminate in foetal loss.     

The validity of survey responses on abortion: Evidence from Estonia

This paper presents results of a validation survey of abortion conducted in Tallinn, Estonia in April and May 1992. The sample was drawn from patient records in a maternity hospital. Women who had an abortion in that hospital in 1991 were asked about recent abortions as part of a survey about women’s health. More than 80% of the respondents reported having a recent abortion. Some respondents misreported their abortion as a miscarriage. Moreover, some variation in reporting was associated with respondents’ characteristics. Ethnic Estonians were less likely to report their abortion than were Russians, women over age 40 were less likely to report the abortion than younger women, and women who had the abortion late in the first trimester were less likely to report that abortion. There was some evidence that unmarried women were less likely than married women to report their abortion, and that women who had borne three or more children were less likely to report their abortion than women who had borne fewer children. These differences probably stem from the extent to which pregnancy or abortion is considered stigmatizing for women in different situations.     

Cohort Trends in Premarital First Births: What Role for the Retreat From Marriage?

We examine cohort trends in premarital first births for U.S. women born between 1920 and 1964. The rise in premarital first births is often argued to be a consequence of the retreat from marriage, with later ages at first marriage resulting in more years of exposure to the risk of a premarital first birth. However, cohort trends in premarital first births may also reflect trends in premarital sexual activity, premarital conceptions, and how premarital conceptions are resolved. We decompose observed cohort trends in premarital first births into components reflecting cohort trends in (1) the age-specific risk of a premarital conception taken to term; (2) the age-specific risk of first marriages not preceded by such a conception, which will influence women’s years of exposure to the risk of a premarital conception; and (3) whether a premarital conception is resolved by entering a first marriage before the resulting first birth (a “shotgun marriage”). For women born between 1920–1924 and 1945–1949, increases in premarital first births were primarily attributable to increases in premarital conceptions. For women born between 1945–1949 and 1960–1964, increases in premarital first births were primarily attributable to declines in responding to premarital conceptions by marrying before the birth. Trends in premarital first births were affected only modestly by the retreat from marriages not preceded by conceptions—a finding that holds for both whites and blacks. These results cast doubt on hypotheses concerning “marriageable” men and instead suggest that increases in premarital first births resulted initially from increases in premarital sex and then later from decreases in responding to a conception by marrying before a first birth.     

Abortion in amsterdam

Abstract Mortality from abortion is low in the Netherlands to-day, and approximately equal to mortality at delivery. Calculations suggest that about 4,000 abortions occur in Amsterdam every year, of which about 2,100 are induced. The abortion rate shows a very gradual decline after the Second World War. An investigation of the social background of women with induced abortion showed no relationship between occupational group and the incidence of abortion, but a strong negative correlation between religion and abortion. Abortion was more common among women with disturbed relationships in their own or parental families. Induced abortion usually occurred in pregnancies resulting from failure of contraception; these failures were caused not by lack of knowledge of good contraceptives, but by ineffective practice of contraception. The inability to use contraceptive methods in an effective way is related to a lack of communication between the two partners, and to a negative attitude of the women towards sex. An attempt has been made to formulate a theory of the causes of induced abortion among the women interviewed in Amsterdam.     

Socio-economic correlates of fecundability in a sample of taiwanese women

Estimates of fecundability (monthly probability of conception) in the absence of contraception are derived from the frequency distribution of conceptive delays immediately following marriage, reported by 2,443 married women aged 20 to 39 included in the Taichung (Taiwan) Intensive Fertility Survey of 1962. Average fecundability of women is positively associated with their socio-economic status. These differentials are not accounted for by differences among socio-economic groups with respect to memory and truncation biases (associated with the marriage duration), wife’s age at marriage, or unreported premarital conceptions. A Multiple Classification Analysis suggests that among the socio-economic characteristics, husband’s education, rural background, and modern family type are the more important predictors of fecundability. The importance of genetic factors as opposed to cultural factors in producing these socio-economic differences in fecundability can not be evaluated systematically. Moreover, the relation of a couple’s privacy, their attitude toward family building, and patterns of mate selection to their socioeconomic status would have to be taken into account before the differences in fecundability could be attributed to factors such as nutrition, health, or infections which might directly influence their physiological ability to conceive.     

Estimation Of The Birth Rate For The Congo Through Nonconventional Techniques

This paper attempts to produce a set of alternative estimates of birth rates for the Congo and for its main regions through nonconventional techniques. The main body of data used for this purpose is supplied by the demographic survey undertaken during 1955-57. Two types of information on fertility are produced by this survey: (1) births to women by age during the 12 months preceding the survey and (2) children-ever-born to women by age. The available data, while reliable in certain respects, are deficient in others. Thus, the reports on children born during the year preceding the survey are acceptably accurate for the children who have survived but are insufficient for the children who have died.The task was to make the best possible use of various reliable pieces of information directly or indirectly related to fertility, in order to produce some reasonably acceptable estimate of birth rate. One procedure consisted of correcting the reported birth rate for the omission of infant deaths; another procedure involved the adjustment of the reported birth rate with reference to the mean parity of women. In addition to these, an estimate of birth rate was derived by means of stable population technique from the proportion of children under 5 years of age.Three sets of estimates of birth rate, then, have been produced. They yielded a high agreement for the country as a whole, as well as for the provincial and district levels. These estimates were then compared with the proportion of childless women and the proportion of children-the latter having been derived from the records of "continuous registration of inhabitants," a source of information which is completely independent of the demographic survey of 1955-57. Again, a reasonable agreement has been found among all these estimates.Statistical evidence examined in this paper supports a birth rate of about 45 per 1,000 for the Congo. The analysis reveals a high regional variation in birth rate: from 20 per 1,000 (Bas Uele) to 60 per 1,000 (Kivu). This variation is consistent with the variation in sterility level as evidenced by the proportion of women never having had a live birth. The proportion of childlessness varies from 5 percent (Kivu) to about 40 percent (Bas Uele) for women past child-bearing age.