Revisiting property crime and economic conditions: An exploratory study to identify predictive indicators beyond unemployment rates

Numerous researchers have questioned the use of the unemployment rate as an explanatory factor in econometric studies which address the relationship between the economy and crime. This paper presents the findings from an exploratory study which sought to test the efficacy of the unemployment rate for predicting reported property crime rates and to identify other economic indicators which may also prove to be useful for predicting crimes with economic under tones or motives. Specifically, larceny-theft, burglary, motor vehicle theft, robbery, fraud and embezzlement. Given the exploratory nature of the study seven stepwise regressions were computed with unemployment emerging as a significant predictor for only one of the criminal offenses. Findings identified other useful economic variables, such as average wage and salary disbursements, supplemental security income receipts, the consumer price index and per capita personal income which should be considered in lieu of unemployment rates.     

Revisiting property crime and economic conditions: An exploratory study to identify predictive indicators beyond unemployment rates—Comment

In a recent issue of this Journal, Yearwood and Koinis (2011) endeavor to identify predictive variables of property crime in addition to the unemployment rate. The focus is on reported property crimes rates in the form of property crime in the aggregate, larceny-theft, burglary, robbery, fraud, motor vehicle theft, and embezzlement in North Carolina. The study deals with annual time series data for the period 1977–2007. Unfortunately, the study suffers from potentially serious misspecification problems and from a number of potentially serious empirical/statistical problems. This Comment describes these problems, problems that compromise the validity and usefulness of the Yearwood and Koinis (2009) results, and in so doing to some degree helps to demonstrate how those problems can be ameliorated.     

Is Immigration Responsible for the Crime Drop? An Assessment of the Influence of Immigration on Changes in Violent Crime Between 1990 and 2000*

Objectives. The idea that immigration increases crime rates has historically occupied an important role in criminological theory and has been central to the public and political discourses and debates on immigration policy. In contrast to the common sentiment, some scholars have recently questioned whether the increase in immigration between 1990 and 2000 may have actually been responsible for part of the national decrease in crime during the 1990s. The current work evaluates the influence of immigration on crime in urban areas across the United States between 1990 and 2000. Methods. Drawing on U.S. Census and Uniform Crime Report data, I first use ordinary least squares regression models to assess the cross‐sectional relationship between immigration patterns and rates of homicide and robbery among U.S. cities with populations of at least 50,000. Second, I employ pooled cross‐sectional time‐series models to determine how changes in immigration influenced changes in homicide and robbery rates between 1990 and 2000. Results. In the ordinary least squares models, immigration is associated with higher levels of homicide and robbery. However, the pooled cross‐sectional time‐series models suggest that cities with the largest increases in immigration between 1990 and 2000 experienced the largest decreases in homicide and robbery during the same time period. Conclusion. The findings offer insights into the complex relationship between immigration and crime and suggest that growth in immigration may have been responsible for part of the precipitous crime drop of the 1990s.     

A Review of Car Crime in England and Wales

Summary With 21 per cent of offences recorded by the police in the 12months ending March 1999, and representing 1,077,700 theftsof and from vehicles, motor vehicle crime is the single mostcommon offence in England and Wales. Young males under 21 yearshave been found to be responsible for three-quarters of carthefts. Studies in the United Kingdom suggest the characteristicsof these offenders include those associated with socio-economicdeprivation and poor self-esteem; whilst for many, involvementin car crime is a means of seeking excitement. The requirement to identify the needs of car offenders, andthe establishment of intent and purpose within offending behaviourprogrammes, saw an increase in the number of probation-basedmotor projects from 1990. Access to the car, and opportunitiesto drive in controlled environments were present in some ofthe newer projects, although many had abandoned this principle.Whilst little empirical evidence exists to support their claims,a number of projects have boasted success in their efforts toreduce the risks of further car crime amongst offenders whohave completed programmes at motor projects as part of theirsentences. Eight motor projects that challenge offending behaviourare reviewed and the latest Home Office evaluation discussed.     

Children's Homicide as an Indicator of Effective Child Protection: A Comparative Study of Western European Statistics

Correspondence to Colin Pritchard, Professor of Social Work Studies, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO9 5NH. Summary It is known that the extreme consequence of child abuse is adead child. Attempts to determine the success of services toprevent child abuse and subsequent deaths confront the problemsinherent in trying to prove a negative. The use of an epidemiologicalapproach resolves some of the methodological problems by measuring‘failure’ to protect in an examination of children'shomicides rates over time. Between 1973 and 1988 it was found that there was a substantialreduction in baby homicides in England and Wales, equivalentto a fall of 61 per cent and a 57 per cent reduction in Scotland.In a comparison with the other fifteen Western European countries,England and Wales topped the league of improvements in children'shomicide, and Scotland was fourth. Such improvements suggestadvances by the child protection services. Explanations forthe positive British results are considered.     

Drug Enforcement and Crime: Recent Evidence from New York State*

Objective. The objective of this article is to provide evidence about the effectiveness of drug law enforcement as a tool for reducing other types of crime. Considerable resources are devoted to enforcing our nation's drug laws, but existing research suggests that intensifying drug law enforcement may serve to increase, rather than decrease, crime. Method. Using data for 62 counties in New York State for 1996–2000, we estimate a set of models that evaluate the effects of recent drug arrests on reported rates of assault, robbery, burglary, and larceny. The estimated statistical model includes controls for fixed effects, time effects, autocorrelation, and heteroskedasticity. Results. The consistency of results is striking—there is no model in which drug arrests are found to have a significant negative relationship with crime. All crimes are positively related to arrests for the manufacture and sale of “hard drugs.” Increases in total per capita drug arrests and arrests for “hard drug” possession are accompanied by higher rates for all crimes except assault. Increased arrests for the manufacture or sale of marijuana are associated with increases in larcenies. Conclusions. The empirical findings raise serious questions about the effectiveness of drug enforcement as a crime‐control measure and suggest that significant social costs may arise from existing approaches to drug control.     

Hate Speech: Asian American Students' Justice Judgments and Psychological Responses

Two experiments using Asian American university student participants examined the distinctive characteristics of responses to racist hate speech relative to responses to other forms of offense. The studies varied the target of insulting speech (Asian, African, and Overweight person) or the nature of offence (petty theft vs. insulting speech). Participant variables included collective self-esteem and social identification. Results indicate that hate speech directed at ethnic targets deserves more severe punishment than other forms of offensive speech and petty theft. Hate speech also results in more extreme emotional responses and, in the case of an Asian target, has a depressing influence on collective self-esteem. Ethnic identification moderated punishment responses in study 1 only. The theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed.     

Replacement Cost Endorsement and Opportunistic Fraud in Automobile Insurance

Traditional insurance contracts do not offer protection against the replacement value of a vehicle. A replacement cost endorsement gives the opportunity to get a new vehicle in the case of a total theft or in the case of total destruction of the car in a road accident. This type of protection was introduced in Canada in the late 1980's. It is also offered in France and many insurers in the United States are going to move in that direction. We propose tests that separate moral hazard from adverse selection in the analysis of the effect of this additional protection on car theft. We show that holders of car insurance policies with a replacement cost endorsement have a higher probability of theft near the end of this additional protection (usually 24 months following the acquisition of a new car). Our tests indicate that this result is a form of ex post moral hazard or opportunistic insurance fraud.     

A Consumer Study of Young People's Views on their Educational Social Worker: Engagement as a Measure of an Effective Relationship

Correspondence to Colin Pritchard, Mental Health Group, University of Southampton, Royal South Hants Hospital, Brintons Terrace, Southampton, SO14 0YG, UK. Summary This, the first ever consumer study of education social workers(ESWs), uses qualitative material and quantitative analysisby examining the views of 110 users of a county ESW service.Most pupils belonged to families with long-standing disadvantage;e.g. 53 per cent had unemployed fathers; over 70 per cent hadparents with disturbed personal and social relationships, 39per cent had a single parent; 30 per cent plus had mental healthproblems; and 10 per cent of parents had been in care as children,i.e. more than ten times the national average. The young people also had considerable disruption in their lives:for example 78 per cent frequently missed school; over 50 percent had school and peer difficulties; 30 per cent offended;over 30 per cent experienced bullying; 5 per cent were the subjectof child protection enquiries, 10 per cent had previously beenin care and 2 per cent had had an incident of ‘attemptedsuicide’ (50 times the national rate). They averaged sixmajor difficulties each. Despite these antecedents, 91 per cent of the young people demonstratedan ‘engaged’ relationship with their social worktrained ESW, with many examples of practical psychosocial helpbeing received. The concept of ‘engaged’ was statisticallyvalidated in the comparison of views between the ‘engaged’and ‘non-engaged’ research participants. The resultsindicate the value and effectiveness of a supportive rapport/relationshipas a vehicle to reach and to be of practical assistance to disturbedand disturbing young people.     

Crimes and violence in Mexico: Evidence from panel data

Drug-related violence is now an everyday occurrence in Mexico's northern border-states. While it often appears that all crimes are on the rise in the border region, the actual number of alleged offenders caught and brought to court differs significantly for different types of crime. Using panel data for Mexico's 31 states plus the Federal District from 2004 to 2008, it was found that there were more alleged offenders caught per 100,000 inhabitants involving theft, property damage, and carrying prohibited arms, in Mexico's northern border-states compared to interior states. The effects of other socioeconomic variables on crime in Mexico, such as GDP, incarceration rates, births to single mothers and expenditures on public security, were also examined.     

Income redistribution in 20 countries over time

In most OECD countries, the gap between rich and poor has widened over the past decades. The present study analysed whether and to what extent direct taxes and social transfers contribute to this trend. The study contributes to the literature by disentangling several parts of fiscal redistribution in a comparative setting. We used micro‐data from the Luxembourg Income Study to examine household market inequality and redistribution from transfers and taxes for 20 countries from the mid‐1980s to the mid‐2000s. The contribution of each programme was estimated using a sequential accounting budget incidence decomposition technique. We observed a sizeable increase in primary household inequality, but tax‐benefit systems have offset two thirds of the average increase in primary income inequality. The public old‐age pensions attributed 60 per cent to the increase in redistribution, while social assistance accounted for 20 per cent. Direct taxes slowed down redistribution by 16 per cent.     

Crime in Our Cities: A Comparative Study

Crime rates in New South Wales are compared with overseas figures. Comparisons are made between Sydney and eight American and two Canadian cities of similar size. Urban-rural crime rates are studied by relating Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong to the rest of the State. In both rural and urban areas the rates for homicide, sex offences and other offences against the person are relatively low when compared with American rates. The rates for property offences and car theft are similar to those which exist in America and, and in the case of Sydney, exceed the rate of these offences in the two Canadian cities studied.     

The cross-border portability of social security benefits: Status and progress?

The importance of the cross-border portability of social benefits is increasing in parallel with the rise in the absolute number of international migrants and their share of the world population, and perhaps more importantly with the much higher and rising share of the world population that for some part of their life is working and/or retiring abroad. This article estimates how the rising stock of migrants is distributed over four key portability regimes ranging from portability through bilateral social security arrangements to undocumented workers with no access to any scheme. The comparison of estimates for 2000 and 2013 indicate a modest but noticeable increase in the share of migrants under regime I (full portability) by 1.4 per cent, but the biggest change occurred under regime III (no access to social security but also no contributions required), which almost doubled to 9.4 per cent. Regime II (potential exportability without totalization) reduced by 3.0 percentage points but remains the dominant scheme (at 53.2 per cent). The estimates suggest that the scope of regime IV (informality) reduced by 2.9 percentage points, accounting for 14.0 per cent of all migrants in 2013. This trend is positive, but more will need to be done to progress on benefit portability and various potential solutions lie outside bilateral agreements that are difficult to establish.     

Lone-parent Families in Europe: A Variety of Economic and Social Circumstances

The third wave of the European Community Household Panel Survey (ECHP) shows that 12 per cent of European families were lone-parent families in 1996. Nine single parents out of ten are women, usually divorced or separated. The proportion of lone parents under 30 varies from 3 per cent in Italy to 20 per cent in the United Kingdom. Most lone parents are in work, and very often occupy a full-time job, but the employment rate ranges from only 40 per cent in Ireland and the United Kingdom to 75 per cent in France and Denmark. Lone-parent families benefit from social transfers more often than other families, and for higher amounts, but poverty is more common than in other households, except in Denmark, Greece and Portugal. The housing circumstances of lone-parent families vary widely from country to country. In the south of Europe, 25 to 40 per cent are lodging in a larger household, suggesting solidarity within the extended families. This paper classifies the nations of Europe into five groups in terms of the overall circumstances of lone-parent families. Anglo-Saxon countries have the highest proportion of lone parents, with the least labour market participation and lower incomes. In contrast, lone parents in Scandinavian countries are more often at work and no more affected by poverty than other types of households.     

Transitions to employment from labour market enterprises in Norway

In this article we analyse a labour market programme for partially disabled workers that involves the transition from labour market enterprises to a job in the ordinary labour market. We found that the percentage of these people who found jobs after a maximum two-year programme period increased over time. In 1995, 28 per cent became employed in the ordinary job market after leaving the programme. Exit rates to employment increased to 36 per cent in 1998 and to 39 per cent in 1999. We also found heterogeneity in the job transitions. Employment ratios for men were relatively stable over time, varying between 30 and 40 per cent over the period 1995–1999. For women, however, we found a significant change in employment ratios, with 21 per cent finding a job in 1995 and 40 per cent in 1999. In 1995, employment ratios for female participants were below those of male participants, although there was no difference over the whole period studied (1995–1999). In 1999, the average transition rate to employment was higher for female than for male participants.     

Family Allowances in Australia for Children Under 16 Years of Age

Family allowances for children take two forms: uniform child endowment scheme cash benefits and uniform income tax concessional deductions. The benefit per child by child endowment is the same for all income groups, but that received by tax remission increases with income because taxation is progressive. Child endowment benefits have long remained fairly static, while tax remission benefits have increased substantially as incomes have risen. Hence the scheme best suited to meet the criterion of need— child endowment—having declined from 62 per cent of family allowances in 1959 to 55 per cent in 1966, has become a much smaller component of the dual scheme of family allowances. An outline is given of two schemes which, while costing the government no more than the present dual scheme, would achieve a significant redistribution of benefits better designed to meet the criterion of need.     

A new form of energy poverty is the hallmark of liberalised electricity sectors

The restructuring of electricity sectors has resulted in households paying significantly higher prices. Some European prices rose by more than 100 per cent between 2000 and 2010. NSW households experienced an 80 per cent increase during the period 2007 to 2012. Growing numbers of low‐income and vulnerable households are spending higher proportions of disposable income on energy bills and, we contend, suffer deprivation and social exclusion as a result. This phenomenon, we posit, is a new form of energy poverty driven by rapidly rising electricity prices which are directly related to electricity sector restructuring. The energy‐impoverished population is estimated at 150 million in Europe, and growing. Policy responses are ineffective and poorly targeted, while Australian policy makers rely on measures which significantly understate electricity price changes. This article explores the prevalence and consequences of the problem of energy poverty and outlines the extent of its occurrence in Australia, the country hailed as an exemplar of electricity sector liberalisation.     

A Study of a Total Social Services Care Population and its Inter-Agency Shared Care Populations

There are very few large population studies and little informationabout the characteristics of social services populations andthe inter-agency populations that social services departmentsshare with other agencies. This study fills this gap. It examinesa total social services adult care population, excluding residentialcare homes (N = 19,461) in the context of its general co-terminoushealth authority population (N = 646,239). Approximately two-thirds(61 per cent) of the social services population were women,compared to the health authority population of 51 per cent.Sixty-two per cent were over sixty-five years compared to 23per cent of the health authority. Age groupings and genderedpatterns of service use are then identified for different caregroups. The study then examines care populations shared betweensocial services and other agencies, identifying the amount ofshared care and the characteristics of specific shared caresubgroups. Forty-two per cent of the social services populationwere shared with the community health trust and 19 per centwith the mental health trust. The proportion of the social servicespopulation in contact with Criminal Justice and accident andemergency was nearly twice that in the overall health authoritypopulation. The limitations of these data are examined and thepotential of this method to inform inter-agency planning andshared care is discussed.     

The challenge of keeping Japanese older people economically active

Japanese society faces serious problems due to population ageing. Both the number and percentage of people aged 65 years old and over are increasing. The ratio of those aged 65+ was 17.3 per cent in 2000, but the estimate of the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research is that the ratio will become 28.7 per cent in 2025 and will reach 40 per cent in 2050. This article consists of four sections. In the first the characteristics of issues associated with population ageing in Japan are discussed. The actual situations of employment and lives of older workers are introduced. The second section analyses government policies to address the ageing of the population. The Japanese government is trying to address the issue through encouraging older people to work longer. The promotion of efforts to extend longer working lives is discussed. In the third section a rehiring system and two cases of Japanese firms are described. Those enterprises are effectively employing older workers. Their experiences would be interesting for those planning to hire older workers. The last section discusses how to resolve challenges associated with population ageing. It is shown that continuous training is one of the most important ways of keeping older people productive.