America's baby boom generation: the fateful bulge

From 1955-64 nearly 42 million births occurred in the U.S., an unprecedented expansion. The roots of the baby boom lie in the universal rush to early marriage and favorable economic climate for the relatively scarce young men born of the Depression cohort. The impact of the boom interrupted a century-long fertility decline. Pro-marriage, pronatalist norms were revived by the Depression cohort who formed families of at least 2 children or more. During the 1960-70's schools, colleges, and universities were built to accomodate the boom and are now excessive for the baby bust cohort. Unemployment and crime rates rose and fell with the passing of the boom babies through late adolescence and early adulthood. In the 1980's, boom babies will be aged 20-30. Demands for housing will be high. Annual birth numbers will increase even if the rate of childbearing hovers below replacement level at about 1.8 per woman. Per capita earnings and overall labor productivity should improve as the boom baby cohort reaches middle age in the 1990s. However, chances for advancement will be fewer. As the cohort reaches retirement age, the over 65 population will double from 31 million in 2000 to almost 60 million in 2030. Although the burden will be somewhat offset by reduced proportions of under 18-year-olds, the ratio of active workers paying Social Security will fall drastically.     

The baby boom in New Zealand and other Western developed countries

The Baby Boom was undoubtedly one of the more emblematic events of the twentieth century. As it was a distinctly demographic phenomenon, it has been dissected by some of the most distinguished of demographers. Yet its greatest influence is not in demography, but in fields like marketing, pop-psychology, and even gerontology: the Baby-Boomers rather than the generation currently at reproductive ages are blamed for structural ageing. This paper questions aspects of Baby-Boom mythology. It asks how it has been measured: a boom suggests numerical volume, yet instead we measure flows. It questions whether the hegemonic model of the boom — the American one that has effectively delineated its parameters in Europe, Australisia and Japan, both among demographers and in the popular media — really does apply to other countries. It also asks whether or not Western Europes limited surges in births really qualify as booms in the strict sense of the term. Finally, it raises questions more in the field of the sociology of knowledge: the way the Baby Boom mythology has spread often in the face of counterfactual evidence. This paper is a revised version of the Australian Population Associations 2006 Borrie Lecture.     

The impact of minority group status on the projected retirement income of divorced women in the baby boom cohort

Using projections from the Social Security Administration's Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT1), we examine the characteristics and retirement income of white non-Hispanic, black non-Hispanic, and Hispanic divorced women in the baby boom cohort. Although we find significant differences in retirement income for divorced women of different racial and ethnic groups, the characteristics associated with higher or lower retirement income are very similar. That is, being college educated, owning a home, and having pension and asset income, for example, correspond to increased retirement income for all racial and ethnic groups. However, because black and Hispanic women are less likely than white women to be college educated, to own their home, and to have pension and asset income, their retirement income tends to be lower than that of white women. We conclude the paper by briefly discussing policy options to address the retirement needs of divorced women.     

从生育高峰出生同期群看我国农村养老模式的选择

第一次生育高峰期出生的人口,受到国家计划生育政策的影响,生育的孩子数目减少,是未来农村老年贫困的高发群体。国家应该对他们的老年生活给予资助。最后,对建立普享型老年津贴的可行性进行了分析。     

Echoes of the baby boom and bust: Recent and prospective changes in living alone among elderly widows in the united states

Today the great majority of noninstitutionalized elderly widows live alone, a striking increase from a quarter-century ago. A noticeable difference has occurred, however, in trends by age; the proportion of the young-old widows living alone is starting to decline. while that of the old-old continues to increase. We use a model suggested by earlier studies to explain the emergence of this difference, and assess the prospects of its continuing over the next three decades. We find that the recent differential change in the proportions of younger and older widows living alone is due primarily to a differential change in kin availability that has emerged as the baby boomers’ parents have begun to reach retirement age. Over the next decade, the same type of differential change by age in kin availability will continue; living alone is likely to become less common among young-old than among old-old widows, in a reversal of the pattern of the last quarter-century. In the first two decades of the next century, as the baby boom affects kin availability among the old-old, and as the subsequent baby bust affects that among the young-old, the age pattern of living arrangements among elderly widows will reverse once again.     

The formal dynamics of controlled populations and the echo,the boom and the bust

This paper analyzes the pattern of fluctuations of births in an age-structured population whose growth is subject to environmental or economic constraint. It synthesizes the traditional demographic analysis of age-structured renewal with constant vital rates and the economic analysis which treats population change endogenously. When cohort fertility depends on relative cohort size, or when period fertility depends on labor force size, fluctuations of forty or more years replace the traditional "echo" or generation-length cycle. Twentieth-century U. S. fertility change agrees well with the theory, as the "Easterlin Hypothesis" suggests; but the period model fits better than the cohort model.     

Parental imprisonment,the prison boom,and the concentration of childhood disadvantage

Although much research has focused on how imprisonment transforms the life course of disadvantaged black men, researchers have paid little attention to how parental imprisonment alters the social experience of childhood. This article estimates the risk of parental imprisonment by age 14 for black and white children born in 1978 and 1990. This article also estimates the risk of parental imprisonment for children whose parents did not finish high school, finished high school only, or attended college. Results show the following: (1) 1 in 40 white children born in 1978 and 1 in 25 white children born in 1990 had a parent imprisoned; (2) 1 in 7 black children born in 1978 and 1 in 4 black children born in 1990 had a parent imprisoned; (3) inequality in the risk of parental imprisonment between white children of college-educated parents and all other children is growing; and (4) by age 14, 50.5% of black children born in 1990 to high school dropouts had a father imprisoned. These estimates, robustness checks, and extensions to longitudinal data indicate that parental imprisonment has emerged as a novel—and distinctively American—childhood risk that is concentrated among black children and children of low-education parents.     

The dependent tax exemption,abortion availability,and US fertility rates

The impact of the personal income tax dependent exemption, abortion availability, and other factors on fertility rates is analyzed. US time series data for 1915–88 are used in the empirical model. The results indicate that greater abortion availability in the USA is associated with lower fertility. A higher value of the dependent exemption generally is associated with higher fertility, but the magnitude and significance of the effect is sensitive to specification choice. The results suggest that restricting abortion availability in the USA will increase the fertility rate, but a change in the tax value of the dependent exemption will have a less predictable impact on fertility.     

Business visits,knowledge diffusion and productivity

We investigate whether labor mobility can be a distinct source of growth by studying the productivity impact of business visits (BVs), vis-à-vis that of other well-known drivers of productivity enhancement. Our analysis uses an unbalanced panel—covering on average 16 sectors per year in ten countries during the period 1998–2011—which combines unique and novel data on BVs sourced from the US National Business Travel Association with Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) data on R&D and capital formation. We find that mobility through BVs is an effective mechanism to improve productivity, being about half that obtained by investing in R&D. This relevant finding invites viewing short-term mobility as a strategic mechanism and prospective policy tool to overcome productivity slowdowns and foster economic growth.     

Population growth,age structure,and age-specific productivity

Motivated by empirical evidence that fluctuations in age structure affect relative wages across age groups, this paper asks whether there is a steady-state age distribution that maximizes the lifetime wages of a representative worker. The paper proves the surprising result that in a pure labor economy with any constant returns technology, a uniform age distribution minimizes lifetime wages. Skewed age distributions, generated by either positive or negative population growth rates, generate unambiguously higher lifetime wages than a stationary population, in spite of possible reductions in per capita output in every period. The presence of non-labor factors complicates, but does not necessarily reverse, this result. The paper relates the beneficial effects of higher rates of population growth on lifetime wages in a pure labor economy with imperfect substitutability across age groups to the benefits of population growth that appear in overlapping-generation consumption loan models with intergenerational transfers.A previous version of this paper was presented at the Economic Demography Workshop at the 1988 meetings of the Population Association of America. Helpful comments from Mark Berger, Theodore Bergstrom, Ronald Lee, Hal Varian, and Robert Willis are acknowledged.     

The US Decennial Census: Political Questions,Scientific Answers

The US decennial census was initiated in 1790 to facilitate nation‐building tasks, especially that of reconfiguring political representation as the population grew and settled new territories. To this basic task of power distribution have been added other key governmental functions, such as the use of census data in guiding revenue sharing and in the enforcement of nondiscriminatory policies. Throughout its history the census has been the focus of partisan clashes. Following the identification of the “differential undercount” a measure of how census coverage differs across demographic groups and geographic areas–the partisan battles intensified, and in recent decades have come to focus not just on how the census counts are used but how the census data are collected. It has been argued that census methodology could be designed to predetermine given partisan outcomes, and for the 2000 census this charge shifted from “could be” to “is.” The Census Bureau has taken extraordinary steps to demonstrate that no partisan considerations have affected the design or implementation of the census, and that its decisions are based solely on the best technical judgment available.     

The dynamics of credentialism: Ireland from bust to boom (and back again)

The relationship between educational qualifications and labour market outcomes has been perhaps the dominant theme in research on school to work transitions. A range of explanations has been offered for this relationship, but such explanations have often been quite static in nature or assumed that any trend is linear. This article explores the dynamics of educational credentialism using Ireland as a case study. Using data from the national School Leavers’ Survey for the period 1984-2007, it examines the way in which two dimensions of education - level and grades - have influenced early labour market outcomes over a period shifting from high unemployment to dramatic employment growth. The analyses presented point to both long-term and short-term changes in the education-employment relationship. An increase in the proportion of young people with upper secondary qualifications is found to result in a growing gap in employment chances between the more and less qualified. Furthermore, employers are found to rely on different educational signals depending on broader economic conditions, with grades assuming a more important role in accessing employment when jobs are scarce. It is argued that the Irish example points to a more comprehensive framework for understanding the dynamics of credentialism.     

The Resource-Infrastructure-Environment Index for Measuring Progress: An Application to Australia, Mexico and the US

The resource-infrastructure-environment (RIE) index was proposed as an alternative measure of progress which was then employed to: (1) compare the aggregate (single summary) index findings between Australia (mid-industrialised nation), Mexico (emerging economy), and the US (highly industrialised nation); and (2) compare the RIE index against the gross domestic product (GDP), human development index (HDI) and genuine savings (GS) measure. This paper builds on the previous work by assessing the seven themes and 21 dimensions which comprise the RIE index for the three aforementioned nations, as well as the associated policy implications. The results identified Australia’s strength in the human resource and infrastructure themes. For Mexico, strong contributions came from the natural and generated resource themes as well as the physical environment theme, while the US performed strongly in the infrastructure themes. The comparative results of the US and Mexico illustrated that it is possible to achieve high levels of progress without an excessive reliance on high levels of production and income.     

Rethinking productivity: The perspective of the Earth as the primary corporation

Productivity and its consequences touch everything. Its comprehensive embrace includes Wall Street and rain forests, automobile output, diminishing Earth stocks, satisfying insatiable consumerism, chemical toxins, increasing population, and loss of topsoil. We ride the postindustrial roller coaster with its upside and downside. Thus, economically, we can cheer as the stock market goes up, up, up. Ecologically, we can lament this trajectory as sending a message that the life systems of the planet are going down, down, down.A rising environmental awareness is recognizing that the Earth is in a deficit position. Hence, the logical warrant for rethinking productivity. Here, our metaphors become a powerful communication system; specifically, the justification for rethinking productivity from the normative perspective of the Earth as the primary corporation. Wearing such an accountability lens, the business person understands the language and the judgment that, if the Earth falls to bankruptcy, then everything else collapses.To explore this critical issue positively, a framework is used setting forth ten guiding principles toward an ecological consciousness. Immediately following each principle, specific connections are made to initiate the process of rethinking productivity. The purpose is to offer not only concrete thinking and creative alternatives but actionable ideas or applications in the workplace and in our industrial and commercial settings; and to stimulate the beginnings of dialogue with the business community. The proposal builds toward a potential commitment worth the full investment of our human energies.The guiding principles emphasize the shamanic attitude which sees all things swayed by sacred meanings; shifting from object-domination to the experience of a subject radiating an interior richness; experiencing the infinitely differentiated splendor of the Earth; taking time to listen to the voices of divine presence; recovering insights of the mind and insounds of the heart to live in compassionate harmony with the Earth; becoming passionately engaged with life as an experience of celebration, with human happiness rescaled to Earth needs; becoming educated to the genius of the Earth and the human as its most original mode of expressiveness; with the full substance of our humanity, relating in mutually enhancing ways to the entire Earth community; inspired by the Dream of the Earth, finding enterprises worthy of our human energy; in the unfolding of this New Story, putting on a new imagination, Re-VISION-ing the human and being shaped by an ecological consciousness as a way into the future.Corresponding to each of these guiding principles, actionable ideas and applications are offered: choosing appropriate quality of life indicators; energizing people in organizations through the systematic elimination of all forms of waste; building upon the George Winter model for installing an environmental business management system; addressing three strategic levels of listening; enlarging lessons of world-class manufacturing organizations to planetary scope; extending the insights of a "geologian" to Earth dynamics; drawing upon the power of storytelling; contrasting the Dominant Social Paradigm and the New Environmental Paradigm. In summary, an extraordinary future awaits business leaders whose vision of this new productivity paradigm is inspired by a Dream of the Earth.     

The quality of municipal service: Concept,measure and results

This article presents a systematic discussion of the concept of the quality of municipal services. Based upon the argument that service quality is a subjective and collective experience of the citizenry, the quality of municipal service is conceptualized is the interaction of two components: (1) the level of citizen satisfaction with the service and (2) the extent of variation in the distribution of service satisfaction across neighbornoods within a community. To measure these two components, Indices of Service Adequacy and Service Equality are constructed. The indices are employed in the analysis of survey data collected from three Illinois middle-size cities in order to assess and compare their service qualities in the areas of police protection, street maintenance and public education. The findings suggest that citizens of the three cities are less than highly satisfied with the quality of these public services.