Provident funds in Asia: Some lessons for pension reformers

As the British were dismantling their empire in the 1950s, they generally left behind a pension legacy consisting of two elements. One was a conventional defined benefit pension scheme for government workers, basically budget–supported. The other was a provident fund for those in the industrial and urban formal sector. Some components of the empire chose to ignore London's advice to create a provident fund — notably Hong Kong, which only recently has created an employer–based system for its workforce. Three features traditionally define state provident funds: central management (with some contracting–out exceptions), a formal structure of individual accounts, and lump sum withdrawals. The term has begun to migrate, however. In Hong Kong, the new mandatory system is called a mandatory provident fund, though it works on a very decentralized basis through employers and requires workers to make their own investment choices. The term is also used in Thailand to describe various schemes that apply to government workers and some private sector firms, along with an evolving pensions system. This paper will concentrate on the four "classic", colonial–era–derived provident funds of Singapore, Malaysia, India and Sri Lanka.     

The Social Development Summit and the developing countries

This article discusses some concerns of the 1996 UN Summit on Social Development. Conference organizers identified the three key conference issues as poverty alleviation, social integration of the marginalized and disadvantaged, and expansion of productive employment. The goal of a "society for all" means dealing with the increasing differences between rich and poor countries, the survival of weaker economies in a competitive market system, wide variations in consumption patterns between countries, attainment of political stability while respecting ethnic identity, the rise in social problems among countries with a high human development index, and increasing joblessness. The Human Development Report for 1994 emphasizes human security. Social development is not the equivalent of human resource development nor a side issue of economic growth. The integration of ethnic groups poses social and political problems. There remains a question about what political system and culture would be best for social integration. Developed countries define poverty as the inability of people and government to provide resources and necessary services for people's productive activity. Poverty in developing countries is blamed on colonialism. Globally, developed countries control 71% of world trade. Sharing resources to meet basic needs throughout the world is not an operational ideal. The highest 20% of income earners receive 83% of the world income. The culture of poverty is the strategy used by the poor to survive. Welfare is not an end in itself but does enable the poor to improve their conditions. Development that focuses on productive employment is uncertain. Developed and developing countries do not share similar perceptions of human rights. There is a question as to who should set the priorities for social development. Sustainable social development is related to preservation of natural resources, control of population growth, and promotion of social security.     

Estimating potential output in developing countries

This paper describes a parsimonious methodology employed by the World Bank for estimating potential output using the production function method. Despite the necessity of strong assumptions, sensitivity analysis suggests the reported estimates for 159 countries are robust to alternative specifications. Moreover, for the majority of countries estimated output gaps are positively correlated with inflation acceleration and negatively correlated with current account balances. An examination of estimated output gaps and post-crisis economic developments in several middle-income countries suggest that the methods can play a useful role in guiding macroeconomic policy.     

Modeling the welfare impacts of agricultural policies in developing countries

This paper presents a new model incorporating features of developing country agriculture likely to shape the welfare outcomes of alternative agricultural policies. The model features heterogeneous households linked through markets in a rural economy-wide structure, with endogenous market participation for farmers facing transactions costs. We use it to simulate the impacts on rural welfare of market price supports, production subsidies, input subsidies, and the removal of transaction costs. Applications to six countries demonstrate the diversity of potential impacts, exhibit some systemic differences compared with impacts in developed countries, and identify specific circumstances under which market interventions may be only slightly less efficient than direct payments at transferring incomes to rural households.     

Secondary school dropout and work outcomes in ten developing countries

This paper analyzes the impact of secondary school dropout on the work outcomes of young people in ten developing countries. Understanding such a phenomenon is important because it may affect work prospects, exacerbate income inequality and determine macroeconomic lasting effects given that the formation of a skilled workforce is a key element of economic development and growth.When accounting for endogeneity, we find that secondary school dropout decreases the probability of being employed in non-elementary occupations, suggesting that unskilled workers fail to meet the increasing demand for a skilled workforce. Secondary school dropout, indeed, hinders the accumulation of adequate levels of human capital and anticipates entry into the unskilled labor market.Thus, policy-makers should aim at the extension and efficacy of compulsory education to the secondary level to avoid future under-education problems to promote a skilled workforce and encourage economic development and growth in the long run.     

北京上市公司的融资结构与投资发展战略

本文对北京市上市公司的融资结构与上海、深圳两地上市公司的情况进行了比较研究 ,结果发现 ,北京市上市公司的负债率偏低 ,具有适当增加负债融资的潜在能力。并且 ,从资产负债率与净资产收益率 (R0E)之间的变化关系可以看到 ,适当增加负债有助于提高获利水平。此外 ,上市公司融资结构的优化与投资发展战略之间有着密切的关系。     

Coordination of social security programmes of developed and developing countries

The pattern of immigration to developed countries has changed dramatically. Immigrants are now predominately from developing countries. However, social security agreements, which coordinate programmes on a bilateral or multilateral basis and are designed to protect the social security rights of migrants, remain primarily restricted to the developed countries. The result is a lack of protection for many migrants. This is one of the major challenges facing social security programmes today, and one which must be addressed. A start to tackling this problem is to analyse the issues in the coordination of social security schemes of developed and developing countries. Four key elements are involved in this analysis: the existence of a technical basis for an agreement; reciprocity; the financial solvency of the schemes concerned; and the administrative capacity of the schemes to carry out the obligations inherent in an agreement.     

Social health insurance in developing countries: A continuing challenge

This paper addresses the issue of the feasibility of "social" health insurance (SHI) in developing countries. SHI aims at protecting all population groups against financial risks due to illness. There are substantial difficulties in implementation, however, due to lack of debate and consensus about the extent of financial solidarity, problems with health service delivery, and insufficient managerial capacity. The transition to universal coverage is likely to take many years, but it can be speeded up. Adopting a "family" approach to financial protection, sustained financial support from governments and donors, and deconcentrating the development of SHI may slash several years from the time needed to achieve full universal protection against healthcare costs.     

从全球生态危机看发达国家与发展中国家的合作

生态危机的全球性迫使各国认识到跨国合作的必要性 ,各国追求自身利益的强烈冲动与国际社会的根本特征决定了这种合作关系自始至终与其对立面———冲突交织在一起 ,合作是在冲突中实现的。国家间的能力差异对国际合作具有特别重要的意义 ,发达国家与发展中国家的合作关系是全球生态领域合作的焦点。伴随着冲突的合作关系表现在道德的价值取向、经济问题、政治问题和公平问题四个方面。     

A simulation model of infant feeding and family economics in developing countries

Malnutrition is one of the major problems in the Third World. Rooted in mass poverty. It has implications that seriously hamper the ability of poor countries to reach higher standards of living Malnutrition affects the biological development of human beings, which limits intellectual growth and therefore hampers social and economic betterment. At the same time the cultural fabric in many countries has been badly torn, with an increasingly large share of population moving into grossly underemployed and gravely underpriviledged communities within urban areas. This change has altered most traditional life styles: one of its major consequences has been the marked decline in the breast-feeding of infants. The nutrition and welfare of the family affected by new infant feeding practices, not only interact with the household economy, but affect and are affected by social forces and external conditions.This paper presents a model to address these issues and measure the extent by which the above mentioned interaction threatens economic growth and standards of living encouraging a vicious circle of worsening quality of life and declining economic potential. The model is applied to the economy of Malaysia on the basis of statistical information generated by random sampling techniques. The model is designed to provide a simulation mechanism which although bared on expectations and known input conditions takes into consideration random determination events within predetermined probable patterns. The basis of the procedure is a profile of areas occuring within a single family over a span of 10 years.     

Testing mobilization views of the relationship between international interdependence and political conflict in developing countries

This research examines mobilization conceptions of how international interdependence affects political conflict in developing societies. Two views are investigated. The factoral approach treats conflict as a product of the abundance or scarcity of specific factors of production, while the sectoral approach regards the competitiveness and export performance of a nation’s industries as the key to conflict. A sector’s size and strength also are viewed as important variables. A cross-national design is used to determine how a nation’s levels of manufacturing imports and direct foreign investments interact with factoral and sectoral variables to affect political conflict. The results suggest a consistent positive association between protest and the interaction between labor abundance and interdependence. Capital abundance was unrelated to conflict, and competitiveness, export performance, sectoral size, and sectoral strength all were positively related to protest.     

Universal age pensions in developing countries: The example of Mauritius

Mauritius, a small developing country located in the Indian Ocean east of Madagascar, has provided older residents with non‐contributory age pensions since 1950. The scheme became universal in 1958. Mild income tests were reintroduced in 1965 and again in 2004. Targeting proved to be unpopular, and universality each time was restored. Government added a mandatory, contributory tier in 1978 that does not replace the flat, non‐contributory pension. Instead, it promises participants (approximately half the labour force) an income‐related benefit to top up the universal pension. The author examines Mauritius's long experience, drawing lessons from it for other developing countries.     

Trade sophistication in developing countries: Does export destination matter?

We investigate whether exports to developed economies stimulate export sophistication (represented by UNCTAD’s index of export similarity) in developing countries. Results from fixed-effects estimations suggest that exporting to developed economies enhances the sophistication of exports in the exporting country but there are diminishing returns to this effect. We also find non-linear effects from FDI and income on export sophistication with the effect of income exhibiting diminishing returns which suggests that the gains from exporting to developed economies are higher for lower-income countries; i.e., as income increases, the gains taper off. We discuss the policy implications of these results.     

Saving-investment correlations and capital mobility: The experience of developing countries

This paper estimates saving and investment correlations for 58 developing countries in order to assess the degree of capital mobility in the Feldstein-Horioka sense for these countries. Using a new estimation technique, fully modified ordinary least squares, that simultaneously corrects for serial correlation, endogeneity, and sample bias (asymptotically), the study finds that many developing countries are financially integrated in the long run. Moreover, the estimation results do show that saving-investment correlations for middle-income countries tend to be lower than those for low-income countries.     

The employment effects of trade in manufactured products between developed and developing countries

This paper examines prospective changes in employment associated with the expected expansion of trade in manufactured goods between the developed and developing countries over the next decade. It appears that, on balance, the developed countries would experience net employment creation as a result of this trade, and there would be only relatively small decline of employment in their import-substituting industries. In turn, the developing countries would gain employment through increased export that would further contribute to their economic growth, with favorable indirect effects on employment.     

论发展中国家有效提高政府经济行为质量的途径

政府的作用十分重要,但政府经济行为未必都是高质量的。提高发展中国家政府经济行为质量应注重:加强政府决策的科学性和保持一个高效率的政府机构;适时地调整政府的经济职能;保持一定的权威;提高政治民主化程度;为政府行为提供一个有利的社会经济环境;引入适度的外部压力。     

Singapore: social development, housing and the Central Provident Fund

The high rates of economic growth and significant improvements in standards of living recorded in East-Asian nations such as Singapore in recent decades has attracted increasing attention from social policy scholars in the industrial countries. Many believe that the experiences of these countries offer useful lessons for the Western welfare states. This article examines social security and housing policies in Singapore and shows how both were an integral part of a wider commitment to promote economic development. The article suggests that Singapore provides a good example of a developmentalist approach to social welfare that successfully harmonises economic and social objectives.