目标函数为∑和max的双目标最短路问题:算法和复杂性

本文研究了一个双目标最短路问题。在该问题中,一个目标函数是∑形式,另一个目标函数是max形式。首先给出了一个时间复杂性为O(m²logn)的算法产生代表有效解集合。然后研究了∑和max的组合目标函数最短路问题,对动态问题和静态问题,分别给出了一个时间复杂性都为O(m²logn)的算法。最后在字典序最优解的意义下,本文给出了两个时间复杂性都为O(mlogn)的算法。     

从单用户DSS到跨组织DSS的演化研究

本文通过对决策支持系统(DSS)发展历程的简单回顾,介绍了从单用户DSS到跨组织决策支持系统(Inter-Organizational DSS)的演化过程,特别是对跨组织决策支持系统(IODSS)的产生背景进行了分析,并尝试给出IODSS的一个新定义。     

中国区域文化地图:“大一统”抑或“多元化”?

中国文化到底是"大一统"抑或"多元化",历来争论不休。本研究试图探讨我国各个地区在文化价值观和文化习俗方面的异同,以及与造成这种异同的外部因素(如地理条件、历史过程、人口因素、宗教、语言、经济、政治和法律体系等)之间的关系。基于多学科的文献综述,我们提出了一个类似马赛克拼图式的中国区域文化地图模型。其中文化价值观和文化习俗在每个模块内部相对同质,而在模块之间则相对异质,但是,这些模块之间以一种耦合的方式在"多元化"的基础上构成了一个"大一统"的整体。根据影响文化的外部因素,中国的区域文化可以分为11种类型,分别是(1)黄土高原文化、(2)华北平原文化、(3)长江上游山地文化、(4)长江中游平原文化、(5)长江下游平原文化、(6)东南沿海海洋文化、(7)东北森林与农耕文化、(8)北方草原文化、(9)绿洲与沙漠文化、(10)雪域高原文化和(11)大都市文化。而根据与工作和管理有关的文化标准来划分(例如,GLOBE文化习俗),这11种文化类型又可以聚合为7种类型,它们分别是(1)黄河中下游文化圈、(2)长江中下游文化圈、(3)西南山地文化圈、(4)东南沿海海洋性文化圈、(5)北方农牧接壤文化圈、(6)西藏雪域高原文化圈和(7)国际性大都市文化圈。进一步地,如果根据更加抽象的、更加普适的文化价值观(例如,施瓦兹文化价值观)来分类,又可以进一步聚合成4种类型,分别是(1)黄河—长江文化圈、(2)海洋—都市文化圈、(3)森林—绿洲文化圈和(4)高原—山地文化圈。基于一个全国31个省、自治区、直辖市的大学一年级新生的样本(N=3690)和一个跨学科的专家调查,我们采用判别分析反复检验了所提出的理论模型,并得到了充分的支持。最后,我们简单地讨论了这种区域文化差异对组织管理研究和实践的影响和应用。     

一种考虑最终产品变质的供应商管理库存集成模型

同时降低供应链中处于不同阶段的物料(原材料、在制品以及成品)的库存水平已经成为供应链管理的一个研究焦点。其中供应商管理的库存VMI(vendor-managed-inventory)的策略不论在在理论还是在不同企业的实践中都到的了广泛的关注。本文给出了一个考虑一个供应商和多个不同的订货商,订货商有共同的订货补充期,并且所考虑的最终产品为易腐商品的VMI库存模型。最后,本文给出了算例加以说明。     

认识钟表

一、创情情景,谈话引入 (出示课件:播放森林公园举行运动会的动画场景)今天,森林公园举行运动会了,学校组织全校学生早上8时(出示8时的钟面贴在黑板上)乘车去森林公园.一个小朋友这个时候(出示6时的钟面贴在黑板上)来到了学校,一个人都没有看见,你知道为什么吗?还有一个小朋友这个时候(出示9时的钟面贴在黑板上)来了,也没有看见一个人,你知道又是什么原因吗? 师:一个小朋友来早了,一个小朋友来晚了,没看见一个人,是因为他们不认识钟表,如果我们学会了认识钟表,就会准8时到校乘车了,这节课我们就来学习认识钟表.     

欠发达地区乡镇(街)文化站现状与亟待解决问题

<正>党的十九大提出"文化自信",这是对文化工作的重视和提升,也是对文化工作的期望和要求。文化自信,是一个国家、一个民族、一个政党对自身文化价值的充分肯定,对自身文化生命力的坚定信念。"十二五"期间,党中央、国务院对文化工作制定了一系列的优惠政策,实施了电影放映1231工程,文化馆、图书馆、博物馆以及乡镇(街)文化站全面实施了免费开放,实现了乡镇(街)文化站综合文化楼、农村文化室、农家书屋、农村文化室电子阅览室等全覆盖。但综观乡镇(街)文化站的现状不容乐观,一些问题亟待解决。一是管理体制不顺。据调查了解,现在大部分乡镇(街)文化站沿用了双重管理、双重使用的模式:既受县(市)文化     

组织的行为过程动态模式研究

组织的行为是一个复杂的动态过程,本文首次提出组织的信息元素(简称信元)、组织的信息元素总体(简称信元总体)、组织的智能调度(简称智能调度)概念,并在Po-lung Yu模型基础上构建了将信元、外界环境信息、组织的行为三者统一起来的行为过程模式.最后,运用该模型分析了一个企业组织在市场经营中的案例.     

趣谈企业管理中的八大“自然”法则

企业管理是企业的关键所在。科学的管理将决定企业的兴旺与繁荣。本文通过大自然司空见惯的各种习性与法则,从一个独特的角度向大家阐释了自然法则在企业管理中的运用。从人才竞争(蘑菇定律)、以人为本(南风法则)、激励手段(鲶鱼效应)、从容沟通(踢猫效应)、团队合作(蚁群效应)、独立决策(羊群效应)、竞争决胜(快鱼法则)、细节成败(蝴蝶效应)这八个方面全方面立体化的展现出了企业管理的多元性,发人思考,耐人寻味,给企业管理者们开辟了一片新的视野。     

Excel小技巧:批量修改数据

在Excel表格数据都已被填好的情况下,如何方便地对任一列(行)的数据进行修改呢?比如我们做好一个Excel表格,填好了数据,现在想修改其中的一列(行),例如:想在A列原来的数据的基础上加8,有没有这样的公式?是不是非得手工的一个一个数据地往上加?对于这个问题我们自然想到了利用公式,当你利用工式输入A1=A1 8时,你会得到Excel的一个警告:“MicrosoftExcel不能计算该公式……”只有我们自己想办法了,这里介绍一种简单的方法:第一步:在想要修改的列(假设为A列)的旁边,插入一个临时的新列(为B列),并在B列的第一个单元格(B1)里输入8。第二步:…     

一代名相张九龄

正打通古代京广线在官场上,张九龄可不只是一个花瓶般的诗人,从当官那天起,他就是一位目光远大、注重实干的政治家。开元四年(716年),张九龄还只是唐玄宗跟前一个小小的拾遗(谏官,负责讽谏或举荐人才)。因为性子太直,得罪了当时的丞相姚崇,这年秋天,他主动辞官回乡,奉养母亲。途经南雄(今广东韶关南雄)和大余(今江西大余)交界处的大庾岭时,发现这     

基于拔靴滤波历史模拟法的黄金市场VaR测度研究

传统历史模拟法（THS，Tranditional Historical Simulation）和滤波历史模拟法（FHS，Filtered Historical Simulation）是国际商业银行使用最多的VaR预测方法。首先，论文在已有研究成果的基础上，构造了BHW（Bootstraped Hull and White）历史模拟法；然后，以国内黄金交易数据为样本，采用6种严谨的后验分析（Backtesting analysis）方法，对BHW方法及几种主流历史模拟法、GARCH模型方法的VaR预测精确性进行了实证分析。论文的主要结论包括：（1）综合论文所采用的几种金融风险测度方法来看，BHW方法表现出了相对较好的精确性，而实务界中广泛使用的THS方法则表现出了最差的精确性；（2）不同的历史模拟法受样本规模因素影响的程度显著不同，例如THS方法和HW方法均不同程度的受到了样本规模因素影响；（3）总体来看，BHW方法表现出了相对较好的风险预测精确性，可以作为测度黄金市场风险的选择之一。     

Integrating management judgment and statistical methods to improve short-term forecasts

The complementary strengths that management judgment and statistical methods can bring to the forecasting process have been widely discussed. This paper reviews research on the effectiveness of methods that are designed to allow judgment and statistical methods to be integrated when short-term point forecasts are required. The application of both voluntary and mechanical integration methods are considered and conditions identified where the use of particular methods is appropriate, according to current research. While acknowledging the power of mechanical integration methods that exclude the judgmental forecaster from the integration process, the paper suggests that future research effort should focus on the design of forecasting support systems that facilitate voluntary integration.     

Identification and Review of Sensitivity Analysis Methods

Identification and qualitative comparison of sensitivity analysis methods that have been used across various disciplines, and that merit consideration for application to food-safety risk assessment models, are presented in this article. Sensitivity analysis can help in identifying critical control points, prioritizing additional data collection or research, and verifying and validating a model. Ten sensitivity analysis methods, including four mathematical methods, five statistical methods, and one graphical method, are identified. The selected methods are compared on the basis of their applicability to different types of models, computational issues such as initial data requirement and complexity of their application, representation of the sensitivity, and the specific uses of these methods. Applications of these methods are illustrated with examples from various fields. No one method is clearly best for food-safety risk models. In general, use of two or more methods, preferably with dissimilar theoretical foundations, may be needed to increase confidence in the ranking of key inputs.     

Ranking irregularities when evaluating alternatives by using some ELECTRE methods

The ELECTRE II and III methods enjoy a wide acceptance in solving multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems. Research results in this paper reveal that there are some compelling reasons to doubt the correctness of the proposed rankings when the ELECTRE II and III methods are used. In a typical test we first used these methods to determine the best alternative for a given MCDM problem. Next, we randomly replaced a non-optimal alternative by a worse one and repeated the calculations without changing any of the other data. Our computational tests revealed that sometimes the ELECTRE II and III methods might change the indication of the best alternative. We treat such phenomena as rank reversals. Although such ranking irregularities are well known for the additive variants of the AHP method, it is the very first time that they are reported to occur when the ELECTRE methods are used. These two methods are also evaluated in terms of two other ranking tests and they failed them as well. Two real-life cases are described to demonstrate the occurrence of rank reversals with the ELECTRE II and III methods. Based on the three test criteria presented in this paper, some computational experiments on randomly generated decision problems were executed to test the performance of the ELECTRE II and III methods and an examination of some real-life case studies are also discussed. The results of these examinations show that the rates of the three types of ranking irregularities were rather significant in both the simulated decision problems and the real-life cases studied in this paper.     

论管理学界的研究方法迷失——实践迷失、客户迷失、价值迷失的继续研究

管理学研究方法迷失的问题有:①一流期刊论文虽然比三流期刊论文所用方法严谨得多,但外部效度都不高,或者说两者都迷失了外部效度;②实证研究狭隘化,量化建模法占统治地位,其他实证研究方法受排挤;③生搬硬套美国构念,僵硬翻译英文概念。方法迷失是由价值迷失导致的,方法迷失又加剧了客户迷失和实践迷失。要走出"四大迷失",需要确立管理学研究"八荣八耻"价值观、改革学术评价体系、纠正实证研究的狭隘化、扶持非主流研究方法、避免量化与质化研究方法失衡。如果学术环境短期内难以改变,只能靠管理学研究者自我救赎。     

Methods for Uncertainty Analysis: A Comparative Survey

This paper presents a survey and comparative evaluation of methods which have been developed for the determination of uncertainties in accident consequences and probabilities, for use in probabilistic risk assessment. The methods considered are: analytic techniques, Monte Carlo simulation, response surface approaches, differential sensitivity techniques, and evaluation of classical statistical confidence bounds. It is concluded that only the response surface and differential sensitivity approaches are sufficiently general and flexible for use as overall methods of uncertainty analysis in probabilistic risk assessment. The other methods considered, however, are very useful in particular problems.     

基于流数据挖掘的网络流量异常检测及分析研究

网络流量异常检测及分析是网络及安全管理领域的重要研究内容.本文探讨了网络流量异常的种类、网络流量异常检测的方法,分析了基于传统检测方法在网络流量异常检测应用中存在的问题.并重点对基于流数据模型的网络流量异常检测进行了研究,综述了已有流数据挖掘研究方法在网络流量异常检测中的研究进展.最后,本文对现有研究工作存在的问题及未来的研究方向进行了探讨.     

基于一致性的动态组合评价方法研究

为了解决多种动态评价方法和动态组合评价方法评价结论非一致性问题,提出基于一致性的动态组合评价方法。确定相容动态评价方法集,应用几种动态组合评价方法对相容动态评价方法集中的单一动态评价结论进行组合评价,如果评价结论非一致,再利用这几种动态组合评价方法对动态组合评价结论进行组合或再组合,直到得到一致性的动态组合排序值为止。应用基于一致性的动态组合评价方法对东部地区区域自主创新能力进行动态组合评价,得到一致性的评价结论,通过实例说明本研究实际应用上的有效性。基于一致性的动态组合评价方法对解决多种动态评价方法评价结论非一致性问题提供了思路,是综合评价方法研究的有益补充,可以利用该方法进行应用研究。     

Comparison of Sensitivity Analysis Methods Based on Applications to a Food Safety Risk Assessment Model

Sensitivity analysis (SA) methods are a valuable tool for identifying critical control points (CCPs), which is one of the important steps in the hazard analysis and CCP approach that is used to ensure safe food. There are many SA methods used across various disciplines. Furthermore, food safety process risk models pose challenges because they often are highly nonlinear, contain thresholds, and have discrete inputs. Therefore, it is useful to compare and evaluate SA methods based upon applications to an example food safety risk model. Ten SA methods were applied to a draft Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp) risk assessment model developed by the Food and Drug Administration. The model was modified so that all inputs were independent. Rankings of key inputs from different methods were compared. Inputs such as water temperature, number of oysters per meal, and the distributional assumption for the unrefrigerated time were the most important inputs, whereas time on water, fraction of pathogenic Vp, and the distributional assumption for the weight of oysters were the least important inputs. Most of the methods gave a similar ranking of key inputs even though the methods differed in terms of being graphical, mathematical, or statistical, accounting for individual effects or joint effect of inputs, and being model dependent or model independent. A key recommendation is that methods be further compared by application on different and more complex food safety models. Model independent methods, such as ANOVA, mutual information index, and scatter plots, are expected to be more robust than others evaluated.     

基于方法集的综合评价方法集化研究

本文首先基于可能的综合评价方法给出关于可比方法集和相容方法集的定义,并运用模糊聚类分析方法确定相容方法集;然后以相容方法集为基础确定可能的组合评价集,建立评价方法集化模型,寻找一个最满意的组合评价,并对该评价结论进行相容性检验;最后用一个实例说明本研究实际应用上的有效性。