IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF CAUSAL EFFECTS WITH TIME‐VARYING TREATMENTS AND TIME-VARYING OUTCOMES*

We develop an approach to identifying and estimating causal effects in longitudinal settings with time–varying treatments and time–varying outcomes. The classic potential outcome approach to causal inference generally involves two time periods: units of analysis are exposed to one of two possible values of the causal variable, treatment or control, at a given point in time, and values for an outcome are assessed some time subsequent to exposure. In this paper, we develop a potential outcome approach for longitudinal situations in which both exposure to treatment and the effects of treatment are time-varying. In this longitudinal setting, the research interest centers not on only two potential outcomes, but on a whole matrix of potential outcomes, requiring a complicated conceptualization of many potential counterfactuals. Motivated by sociological applications, we develop a simplification scheme—a weighted composite causal effect that allows identification and estimation of effects with a number of possible solutions. Our approach is illustrated via an analysis of the effects of disability on subsequent employment status using panel data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study.     

YOUR LANGUAGE OR MINE? THE NONCOMMUNICATIVE BENEFITS OF LANGUAGE SKILLS

Do languages matter beyond their communicative benefits? We explore the potential role of preferences over the language of use, theoretically and empirically. We focus on Catalonia, a bilingual society where everyone is fully proficient in Spanish, to isolate linguistic preferences from communicative benefits. Moreover, we exploit the language‐in‐education reform of 1983 to identify the causal effects of language skills. Results indicate that the policy change has improved the Catalan proficiency of native Spanish speakers, which in turn increased their propensity to find Catalan‐speaking partners. Hence, the acquisition of apparently redundant language skills has reduced endogamy. (JEL C26, C78, I28, J12, J15, Z13)     

The causes of international labor migrations--a demand-determined approach

The author first studies the reasons why people migrate using a neoclassical approach concerning income differentials. He tests this approach empirically and demonstrates its limits. A demand-determination approach based on human capital theory is then outlined to overcome these limits and to take into account restrictive immigration controls. Migration from Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Turkey to the European Community destination countries is examined. It is concluded that "the demand for immigrants in the destination country is the decisive condition for the phenomenon of international labor migration, and the supply of migration-willing workers is only a necessary condition."     

IDENTIFYING THE LOCAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT EFFECTS OF MILLION DOLLAR FACILITIES

Using incentives to attract firms is the primary economic development policy for many local governments. Yet, relatively little is known about the local economic development outcomes induced by successful attraction of new establishments. The empirical challenge lies in correctly identifying the counterfactual outcome. This article tests for induced economic development in winning counties using a set of highly incentivized large plants. The article makes a methodological contribution by comparing difference‐in‐differences results from a natural experiment (in which counterfactuals are losers reported by Site Selection magazine) with a geographically proximate matching control by design strategy. Estimates are sensitive to identification strategy, with distributional and placebo tests suggesting geographically proximate matching as preferable to the natural experiment. The preferred estimates indicate successful attraction of a large new plant induces modest increases in new economic activity that does not generate fiscal surplus for winning counties. (JEL R11, R31, H71, O18)     

Graphical models for causation, and the identification problem

This article (which is mainly expository) sets up graphical models for causation, having a bit less than the usual complement of hypothetical counterfactuals. Assuming the invariance of error distributions may be essential for causal inference, but the errors themselves need not be invariant. Graphs can be interpreted using conditional distributions, so that we can better address connections between the mathematical framework and causality in the world. The identification problem is posed in terms of conditionals. As will be seen, causal relationships cannot be inferred from a data set by running regressions unless there is substantial prior knowledge about the mechanisms that generated the data. There are few successful applications of graphical models, mainly because few causal pathways can be excluded on a priori grounds. The invariance conditions themselves remain to be assessed.     

Child welfare and the challenge of causal inference

Causal inference refers to the assessment of cause and effect relationships in observational data—i.e., in situations where random assignment is impossible or impractical. Choices involving children in the child welfare system evoke core elements of causal inference—manipulation and the counterfactual. How would a child's circumstances differ if we changed her environment? This article begins with one mathematical approach to framing causal inference, the potential outcomes framework. This methodology is a cornerstone of newer approaches to causal inference. This framework makes clear the identification problem inherent in causal inference and highlights a key assumption often used to identify the model (ignorability or no unobserved confounding). The article then outlines the various approaches to causal inference and organizes them around whether they assume ignorability as well as other key features of each approach. The article then provides guidelines for producing good causal inference. These guidelines emerge from a review of methodological literature as broad ranging as epidemiology, statistics, economics, and policy analysis. These steps will be illustrated using an example from child welfare. The article concludes with suggestions for how the field could apply these newer methods.     

Die Sch?tzung von kausalen Effekten: überlegungen zu Methoden der Kausalanalyse anhand von Kontexteffekten in der Schule

This article discusses the problem of causal inference based on contextual peer effects in education. For this purpose, I first introduce the counterfactual approach to causality and the fundamental problem of causal inference. Subsequently, experiments and a number of statistical methods are discussed as possible approaches to estimate causal effects. In particular, conditioning on observables using common linear regression models as well as matching procedures (such as propensity score matching), fixed-effects models, the difference-in-difference approach, instrumental variables, and the regression discontinuity design are discussed. The introduction of these methods is neither focused on the mathematical background nor on the estimation procedure but rather on the general logic and the assumptions connected with a causal interpretation of the estimated effects. The paper closes with an analysis of compositional peer effects in German elementary schools to illustrate the adequate treatment of selection processes.     

ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF THE TIMING OF PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT FORMATIONS AND ENLARGEMENTS

Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) have proliferated over the past 60 years. While a small number of recent studies have examined empirically the economic determinants of the likelihood of a pair of countries having a PTA, this study explains empirically the timing of all PTA formations and enlargements from 1950 through 2006 using duration analysis. Our main and novel goal is to predict (in‐ and out‐of‐sample) a substantive share of these 1,560 PTA events using a parsimonious model with mainly economic variables, taking selection dynamics into account. Our analysis reveals that we can predict correctly in‐sample the actual year of entry into force for 26% of the 1,560 bilateral PTA formations/enlargements in the period 1950–2006 among 10,518 pairings of 146 countries using only a few economic and political variables. Moreover, we can predict correctly in‐sample 57% of these PTA events within a 10‐year window leading up to the event using this model. The model also performs well out‐of‐sample for the near term (82%), but not if the out‐of‐sample period is very long. We conclude with an evaluation of the model's ability to predict the timing of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the European Union's formation and enlargements, and the model's ten most likely post‐2006 PTA events. (JEL F14, F15)     

THE PROBLEM WITH PREDICTION: CONTINGENCY, EMERGENCE, AND THE REIFICATION OF PROJECTIONS

Here we assess the limitations of "social physics" methods for making predictions of future social conditions in order to contribute to the development of an alternative model of scientific sociology. First, we discuss the complexities inherent in causal analyses of social phenomena, where social organizing principles change historically and causal forces interact to generate outcomes. Second, we analyze the assumptions that underlie prediction in the social sciences by using the population projections of demographers as an illustrative example. Demographers typically make projections assuming the future will be the same as the (recent) past. This approach neglects the possibility of abrupt historical change, contingent events, and emergent social structures. Third, we argue that historical contingency is an essential and necessary consideration in any analysis of the world. A historical materialist approach provides the basis for better formulating nomothetic and idiographic modes of explanation and appreciates the important connections between the two. Sociological inquiry should be an attempt to distinguish between truly nomothetic processes and emergent historical background conditions that only appear nomothetic in a specific historical era. We close with an argument for the importance of developing a sociological science that runs parallel to nonmechanistic approaches in the biological sciences.     

EFFECTS OF CARBON REDUCTION LABELS: EVIDENCE FROM SCANNER DATA

We investigate the effects of carbon reduction labels using a detailed scanner data set. Using a difference‐in‐differences estimation strategy, we find that having a carbon label has no impact on detergent prices or demand. We also investigate possible heterogeneous effects of carbon labels using the synthetic control method. We find no evidence to indicate that the prices for the counterfactual detergents without the label would have been any different from the prices of the carbon‐labeled detergents. We investigate the reasons for these results and conclude that the specific design of the carbon label is responsible for its lack of success. (JEL D12, D83, L15, Q54)     

On the Need for an Ethical Understanding of Health-Care Accountability

Abstract

In Sweden, as in many other Western countries, public health care is challenged by increasing demands for care and continuing budget deficits. Person-centred care (PCC) has been introduced as a new strategy to ameliorate the perceived fragmentation in care and is expected to decrease treatment time, reduce the need for return visits, as well as increase patient satisfaction. However, the changing clinical practices necessary for the PCC approach are assumed to require new accountability practices. This article is primarily an attempt to provide a conceptual analysis of ethical accountability, i.e. a type of accountability that takes into account the human relational responsibility, partial incoherence, and power of reflection. On the grounds of this characterisation, the article aims to provide a basis, among other things, for a discussion of the possibilities of identifying and empirically studying the multimodal expressions in communication that are relevant for this type of accountability. After an initial discussion of the debate on the limits of viewing accountability as transparency, we then turn to our methodological approach and introduce a conceptual analysis of accountability. Next, we discuss some additional features of accountability. Finally, we discuss the possibilities of empirically studying the institutionalisation of ethically informed accountability within person-centred health care.     

Beyond property or beyond Piketty?

Capital and Ideology represents a significant further statement from Thomas Piketty. The arguments made by the “New Piketty” are largely compatible with those of his previous Capital in the Twenty‐First Century, but reflect broadening of scope and deepening of causal analysis, most markedly through the adoption of a world historical perspective. The result is a fuller offering for understanding inequality's pattern in the world, why it exists and how we can best respond to it. The book presents a wide range of arguments, which do not on first glance appear unified. This review essay distills these into six propositions, describes and evaluates each in turn, and identifies some threads that link them. In the process, it provides a critical assessment of Capital and Ideology.     

Exploring the consequences of a recalibration of causal conditions when assessing sufficiency with fuzzy set QCA

The use of Charles Ragin’s Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) is increasing in the social sciences. However, some of its characteristics, especially those of its fuzzy set variant, are still not well understood by users. QCA, a set theoretic method, aims to describe, in a Boolean form, the configurations of conditions that are necessary and/or sufficient for some outcome. The calibration of set memberships is a central feature. We discuss how two alternative calibrations of a condition affect the assessment of consistency with sufficiency. Using first an abstract example and then an empirical one from the sociology of education, we explain why “stricter” calibration of conditions results in higher consistency with sufficiency. We demonstrate that conventional truth table analysis is not an ideal way to compare the analytic consequences of alternative calibrations and therefore employ an alternative which allows a more direct comparison of consistency indices while keeping comparative configurational contexts intact.     

Farmers' Contribution to Agricultural Social Capital: Evidence from Southern Spain

Social capital is the whole set of shared norms, values, attitudes, and beliefs that promote cooperation among individuals within the community and that has proved to be a key factor in explaining development processes. This article aims to provide an analytically reliable notion of social capital within the farming sector and a methodological tool for empirically measuring how social capital is accumulated at the farmer level. The theoretical framework proposed is based on the multidimensionality of the complex concept of social capital. Thus, to develop a comprehensive index for social capital, we identify three dimensions of the concept, structural, relational, and cognitive social capital, each one also comprising several subdimensions. This integrative approach permits creation of a composite indicator of the agricultural social capital accumulated at the farmer level, further identifying socioeconomic factors that influence its accumulation at that level. We empirically apply this methodological approach to farmers in Andalusia in southern Spain as a case study. This research provides an interesting starting point for informing policymakers about social capital and helping them implement the necessary programs to facilitate sustainable development in the agricultural sector.     

Time use surveys,social practice theory,and activity connections

Social practice theory (SPT) represents a growing body of research that takes the ‘doings and sayings’ (social practices) of everyday life as its core unit of enquiry. Time use surveys (TUS) represent a substantial source of micro-data regarding how activities are performed across the 24-h day. Given their apparent complementarities, we ask why TUS have not been utilised more extensively within SPT-inspired research. We advance two contentions: (1) ontological tensions obscure the relevance of TUS data in addressing core SPT research questions, and (2) SPT concepts do not readily translate for application in TUS analysis. In response, we operationalise Schatzki's (2019) concepts of activity events and chains to explore types and forms of temporal activity connection. Using TUS data we examine three activity events: sleeping, reading, and eating. Two types of temporal activity connection (sequence and synchronisation) are identified, together with four forms of connectivity (degrees of uniformity/diversity, sequential directionality, time-varying connections, and symmetrical/asymmetrical relationships). While practices cannot be reduced to activity connections, we argue that this analytical approach offers a systematic basis for examining the ways in which activities combine to underpin the organisation of social practices. Further analysis to compare activity connections across practices, between different groups of practitioners, and over time would offer a valuable resource to empirically examine claims regarding core processes of societal change. We further contend that SPT approaches offer insights for time use research by providing a framework capable of recognising that activities are dynamic and variable rather than homogeneous and stable categories.     

The Virtuality of Virtual Worlds,or What We Can Learn from Playacting Horse Girls and Marginalized Developers

This article discusses the emergence of Habbo Hotel as a large‐scale virtual world and its changing versions through time. We consider how social events taking place within the hotel are conditioned by designed‐in symbolic resources and how, in turn, with creative processes of symbolization, novel social objects emerge out of particular interactions. We then discuss how the membership trajectories of hotel members are essential in understanding how these interactions are shaped and evolve. We also look at how the digital infrastructure and its evolution lends itself to being material for actualizing particular social worlds within the hotel and how the trajectory of the infrastructure reflects the relationship between the user and the developer communities of Habbo. Finally, we discuss why, to understand more fully what virtual worlds consist of at large, analysts should look into the mutually constitutive interactions among users, developers, and surrounding business models over longer periods of time in the constantly varying actualization of any given virtual world.     

The Heterogeneous Impact of International Migration on Left‐behind Households: Evidence from Bangladesh

This article investigates the heterogeneous effects of international migration on the expenditure of Bangladeshi migrant households. Adopting a counterfactual framework, we estimate the impact of migration on per capita expenditure of left‐behind households according to their position in the counterfactual expenditure distribution and the length of the migration period. The effects on households’ social mobility and on inequality are also assessed. The analysis indicates that migration has a positive impact on per capita expenditure and represents an important vehicle of social mobility, but may also be a source of inequality. We also find that only a tiny share of international migrants originates from households belonging to the lowest expenditure quintile and, since most of the characteristics which seem to influence the migration decision cannot be shaped by policy interventions, our results also suggest that pro‐migration policies might not be effective in lifting those most in need out of poverty.     

Focusing on Focusing Events: Event Selection,Media Coverage,and the Dynamics of Contentious Meaning‐Making

Despite the prevalent assumption among scholars of social movements and contentious politics that transformative contentious events are also the focus of public attention and discussion, there has been little attempt to substantiate this. After making a case for why to focus on focusing events and suggesting that these events should be thought of as products of a dialogical contentious meaning‐making process, we develop a coverage attribute‐based method for identifying focusing events. For illustrative purposes, we apply our method to the coverage of contentious events during the “first” intifada by Israeli‐Jewish, Jewish settler, and Palestinian newspapers. Findings from analyses of 11,868 news items reveal that newspapers are likely to strategically quiet contentious events that are strategically amplified by newspapers affiliated with opposing or targeted parties, and vice versa, depending on their interpretation of these events as political opportunities or threats. Analyses of variations across and within contending parties reveal the role of structure and agency in the dialogical seesaw‐like dynamics of contentious meaning‐making.     

A New Focus on Nonprofit ­Entrepreneurship Research

One distinctive contribution nonprofit entrepreneurship research brings to the broader domain of nonprofit studies is an explicit focus on the process of new nonprofit organizational emergence. This article asserts that in order for nonprofit entrepreneurship scholarship to continue to evolve, it is necessary to focus more on what happens before a new nonprofit is formally founded, during the so‐called nascent phase. Using conceptual as well as empirically derived arguments, this article illuminates why nascent nonprofit research is necessary and valuable to nonprofit entrepreneurship scholarship and highlights promising areas for future research.