桃花运还是桃花劫？

时代在变。开放的社会.快节奏的工作.数字化的生存.工作与生存环境的改变.使人们更多了彼此接近的机会。寻求理解与渴望渲泄,盼望着能交上桃花好运便也成了一些人藏匿在心底的美梦。当情感在婚姻与道德的夹缝中游离的时候.有的人在频繁的交友,联谊、网络和娱乐等等各种机会和场合还真的就和那“桃花女神”不期而遇美梦成真了。可人们期待的桃花运到底是什么?不乏有交了桃花好运的——一位出租车司机朋友曾非常得意地告诉过我.他说一天晚上他将一位女士拉到了目的地.可是那女士就是不下车.说是要请他吃饭。司机有点手足无措,可那女士坚持要请并说只要他肯答应.她会给司机一定的报酬.以赔偿司机的时间损失。司机何乐而不为?吃饭过程中2人海阔天空聊得很融洽.原来那女士的丈夫去国外工作已半年多了.女士寂寞难耐.看着司机英     

天价学区房是资源不均的现实标本

据中国之声《新闻纵横》报道，在北京市西城区的文昌胡同深处，一间小小的、不起眼的、甚至杂草丛生，可以说有点破败的房子，刚刚卖出了相当于20公斤黄金的价格。这处仅仅11.4平米的房产，卖出了530万元人民币的天价，每平米房价达到46万元人民币。卖出如此高价的原因，就因为它是北京最著名的小学之一实验二小的学区房。46万的单价，也创造了北京最贵学区房的记录。     

“维权女侠”李亚兰:从打工妹到大律师,帮弱势姐妹擎起法律之剑

不堪家暴省城闯天下,打工妹靠自学摇身变律师 1989年12月的一天,北国重镇哈尔滨街头,冷风如刀,呵气成冰.一个面容憔悴的女子走出车站,看着来去匆匆的人流,一时有些茫然. 这位女子便是李亚兰,时年26岁,来自黑龙江东部的一个小山村.因为兄妹多,家里穷,她读到初二便辍了学,跟着父母在田里劳作.李亚兰骨子里有股不屈从命运的犟劲儿,虽然不得不在家务农,却总不忘看书学习.有一次,李亚兰又在劳动间隙看起了书,一个邻居讥笑她:庄稼人就得有庄稼人的样子,干着活儿还看闲书,难道丑小鸭将来还能变成白天鹅?李亚兰看了邻居一眼,未作辩解,心里却暗暗发誓:“谁说庄稼人一辈子就只能是庄稼人,我就是要跟命运斗一斗!”     

传承柳编技艺弘扬工匠精神--湖北省襄阳市襄州区举办2016首届湖北（程河）柳编工匠技能大赛

残疾工匠赵书贤正在编织柳编花篮，十多年来，依靠编织的柳编的手艺，她不仅解决了家里两个大学生的读书费用问题，还盖起了的新楼房。近日，“2016首届湖北（程河）柳编工匠技能大赛决赛”在湖北柳编之乡襄阳市襄州区程河镇举办，现场96名柳编工匠同台展示柳编技能，比拼编织实力和创意工艺。     

朝外核心地段全精装小户型涉外私人国际公寓工体3号,不可思议?

近日在德胜门附近出现一个巨大的平面路牌,路牌上把整个室内的平面都立体化,家具,沙发,电视机成为垂直的装置,成为京城一道亮丽的风景,这咱实物路牌广告也是亚洲首创,成为人们意义的焦点.细看,原来是位于工体西路的工体3号项目,其诉求卖点是首付16万即可拥有朝外五在商圈财富生活首席居所.     

埃及外交政策新论

埃及是中东最重要的国家之一,优越的地缘位置使埃及在国际舞台异常活跃.本文分别对纳赛尔、萨达特和穆巴拉克时期埃及的外交政策作一回顾,对埃及外交的目标和主要大国关系进行了梳理,最后分析了制约埃及未来外交发展的三个重要因素.     

新时期情怀营销应该怎么做

我们大概进入了一个充满情怀的时代。《美人鱼》借助“我们都欠周星驰一张电影票”的宣传促使观众走进电影院去怀念那个不一样的“至尊宝”，最终该影片刷新了华语影坛的多项票房纪录；NBA则是借助“科比将退役，每一场球赛都是谢幕演出”的话题促使观众走进球场去观看那个曾经无所不能的“黑曼巴”，其最终门票售价更是屡创新高。     

太古宙

地质,即地壳的成分和结构.根据生物的发展和地层形成的顺序,按地壳的发展历史划分为若干自然阶段,叫做地质年代."宙"、"代"、"纪"、"世"分指地质年代分期的第一级、第二级、第三级、第四级.地质年代分期的第一级是宙,分为隐生宙(现已改称太古宙和元古宙)和显生宙.本刊将按照太古宙--元古宙--显生宙(古生代、中生代、新生代)的顺序进行连载解释.     

激发信心凝聚力量

2016年10月16日,中国残联与国务院扶贫办在北京会议中心共同主办"2016扶贫日减贫发展论坛——残疾人精准扶贫平行论坛".本次论坛主题为"激发信心,凝聚力量",阐释了当前国家精准扶贫精准脱贫的工作形势和当前残疾人精准脱贫的有关工作进展情况.中国残联副理事长程凯和国务院扶贫办党组成员、行政人事司司长夏更生出席论坛并讲话.     

水，生命的呼唤

“中央提出到2020年确保我国现行标准下农村贫困人口实现脱贫，贫困县全部摘帽，解决区域性贫困问题。打赢脱贫攻坚战，必须加强水利扶贫工作，充分发挥水利的基础性、先导性、保障性作用，加快补齐补强贫困地区水利短板。”3月7日，省部级领导干部打赢脱贫攻坚战专题研讨班上，在介绍水利扶贫工作时，水利部副部长、党组副书记矫勇的发言令人振奋。     

全自动变频调速供水系统

介绍恒(水)压变(流)量与变压变量全自动变频调速供水系统及其节电机理等。     

FOUR USEFUL FINITE MIXTURE MODELS FOR REGRESSION ANALYSES OF PANEL DATA WITH A CATEGORICAL DEPENDENT VARIABLE

This paper describes and contrasts two useful ways to employ a latent class variable as a mixture variable in regression analyses of panel data with a categorical dependent variable. One way is to model unobserved heterogeneity in the trajectory, or change in the distribution, of the dependent variable. Two models that accomplish this are the latent trajectory model and latent growth curve model for a categorical dependent variable having ordered categories. Each latent class here represents a distinct trajectory of the dependent variable. The latent trajectory model introduces covariate effects on the composition of latent classes, while the latent growth curve model introduces covariate effects on both the "intercept" and the "slope" of growth in logit, which may vary among latent classes.
The other useful way is to model unobserved heterogeneity in the state dependence of the dependent variable. Two models that accomplish this are introduced for a simultaneous analysis of response probability and response stability, and the latent class variable is employed to distinguish two latent populations that differ in the stability of responses over time. One of them is the switching multinomial logit model with a time-lagged dependent variable as its separation indicator, and the other is the mover-stayer regression model.
By applying these four models to empirical data, this paper demonstrates the usefulness of these models for panel-data analyses. Example programs for specifying these models based on the LEM program are also provided.     

Nonresponse Effects on Relationships Between Variables

To examine nonresponse effects on variable relationships, datafrom a panel study of 1,870 older Iowa residents are reported.When data are accumulated by wave of response, differences areminor on variable distributions (percentage, mean, standarddeviation), bivariate relationships (correlation), and multivariaterelationships (regression), suggesting that the assumed impactof nonresponse bias on variable relationships has been overstated.     

Control variables and causal inference: a question of balance

A common motivation for adding control variables to statistical models is to reduce the potential for spurious findings when analyzing non-experimental data and to thereby allow for more reliable causal inferences. However, as I show here, unless all potential confounding factors are included in an analysis (which is unlikely to be achievable with most real-world data-sets), adding control variables to a model in many circumstances can make estimated effects of the variable(s) of interest to the researcher on the dependent variable less accurate. Due to this fact, in some circumstances omitting control variables, even those that affect the dependent variable and are correlated with the variable(s) of interest, may allow for more accurate estimates of the effect(s) of the variable(s) of interest.     

The Wider Benefits of Adult Learning: An Illustration of the Advantages of Multi‐method Research

This study presents a technique for enhancing causal validity in in‐depth interview research. The technique is based on the logic of control, as applied in various research contexts such as experiments and statistical analyses. According to this logic, to detect the real effect of an independent variable on a dependent variable, all other variables must be held constant. By using interview control questions (ICQs), this study applies this principle in in‐depth interviewing. An ICQ is a probe question that controls an independent variable in the participant’s thinking. Two modes are presented: simple control (neutralizing an independent variable to examine whether it is a necessary condition for an outcome) and parallel control (isolating an independent variable to examine whether it is a sufficient condition for an outcome). In both modes, the method allows for additional independent variables to surface. Applications in in‐depth interviews exploring attitudes toward victimless deviance are presented.     

Situational and Personality Variables as Influencing the Relationship between Attitudes and Overt Behaviour*

Cette etude s'interesse particulierement a la relation qui existe entre les attitudes verbales vis-a-vis la legislation de la marijuana et un aspect de la conduite explicite exprimee par rapport a l'objet de cette attitude. Plus precise-ment, nous voulons determiner dans quelle mesure la conduite se dissocie des attitudes lorsqu'on demande aux sujets observes de poser un geste concret en presence de deux temoins. II s'agit de savoir si la conduite individuelle se situe dans le prolongement de l'attitude lorsque cette contrainte sociale est operante dans la situation en tant que variable nouvelle. Cette recherche tente egalement d'apprecier les effets de deux autres facteurs: le besoin d'etre approuve (une variable psychologique) et la congruence (une variable liee a la situation). The reported study concerns the relationship between verbal attitudes toward the legalization of marijuana and one form of overt behaviour expressed toward this attitude object. More specifically, interest lay in determining how behaviour deviated from consistency with attitudes when subjects were asked to perform an overt act in the immediate presence of two other individuals. The main concern was to determine whether or not an individual's behaviour would remain consistent when this “social constraint” was injected into a situation as an intervening variable. The research also attempted to ascertain the effects of two additional factors; need for approval (a personality variable) and con-gruency (a situational variable).     

Alternative solutions to the problem of selection bias in an analysis of federal residential drug treatment programs

In an evaluation of prison-based residential drug treatment programs, the authors use three different regression-based approaches to estimating treatment effects. Two of the approaches, the instrumental variable and the Heckman approach, attempt to minimize selection bias as an explanation for treatment outcomes. Estimates from these approaches are compared with estimates from a regression in which treatment is represented by a dummy variable. The article discusses the advantage of using more than one method to increase confidence in findings when possible selection bias is a concern. Three-year outcome data for 2,315 federal inmates are used in analyses where the authors separately examine criminal recidivism and relapse to drug use for men and women. Statistical tests lead the authors to conclude that treatment reduces criminal recidivism and relapse to drug use. The treatment effect was largest when the inference was based on the Heckman approach, somewhat smaller when based on the instrumental variable approach, and smallest when based on the traditional dummy variable approach. Treatment effects for females were not statistically significant.     

Re-examining a Landmark Research Study: A Teaching Editorial

A landmark research study from the 1950s was reanalyzed. Part of the study's results were confirmed, but other parts were found to have been incompletely analyzed and therefore incorrectly reported. Subsequent scholars who reviewed the study often did not distinguish between the accurate and inaccurate parts of the study. Furthermore, two of the main hypotheses of the study were that one variable (A) was not related to another variable (B) and that variable B was not related to another variable (C). In fact, both null hypotheses, insofar as data could be reconstructed from the original study, could be rejected. A reanalysis is presented here to encourage students in the family field to be bold and not accept published reports “just because” but to evaluate them carefully, perhaps even reanalyzing the data when available. It is hoped that scholars who submit reviews of the literature to Marriage and Family Review will use similar care and attention to assessing the scholarly literature in their particular areas of interest.     

A NOTE ON ADJUSTMENT TO PRODUCTION UNCERTAINTY AND THE THEORY OF THE FIRM

This paper analyzes the impact of production uncertainty on the firm's optimal output decision. If uncertainty is introduced by an additive risk variable, then short-run optimal output is unchanged, but the owner-manager's expected utility can change causing long-run output effects. If uncertainty is introduced by a multiplicative random variable, then short-run output can change as well.     

Carrying Firearms for Protection: A Causal Model*

The authors develop a causal model of the determinants of carrying firearms for protection. It is argued that the examination of carrying a gun as a dependent variable is methodologically more advantageous than using gun ownership as the dependent variable. Through use of path analysis, the direct and indirect effects on gun carrying behavior are identified. The results suggest most crime specific variables, e.g. fear of criminal victimization, do not directly influence the tendency to carry a gun, although these factors had minor indirect effects on the dependent variable. The most important direct influences on carrying a gun were age, gender, and the belief that the presence of guns is an effective deterrent to crime.