Welfare programs and labor supply in developing countries: experimental evidence from Latin America

This study looks at the effect of welfare programs on work incentives and the adult labor supply in developing countries. The analysis builds on the experimental evaluations of three programs implemented in rural areas: Mexico’s Programa Nacional de Educación, Salud y Alimentación (PROGRESA), Nicaragua’s Red de Protección Social, and Honduras’ Programa de Asignación Familiar. Comparable results for the three countries indicate that the effects that the programs have had on the labor supply of participating adults have been mostly negative but are nonetheless small and not statistically significant. However, the evidence does point to the presence of other effects on labor markets. In the case of PROGRESA, there is a small positive effect on the number of hours worked by female beneficiaries and a sizeable increase in wages among male beneficiaries and a resulting increase in household labor income. Moreover, PROGRESA seems to have reduced female labor-force participation in ineligible households. These results imply that large-scale interventions may have broader equilibrium effects.     

Living with parents and educational outcomes in developing countries: empirical evidence from PISA Thailand

Family is a fundamental determinant of children’s welfare outcomes, not only in terms of good or bad behaviour, but also in terms of child development, comprising emotional, social, and cognitive skills. Family structure is even more important in a developing country in which educational achievement tends to lag. Using a national sampling from the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) conducted in 2009 and 2012 in Thailand as a case study for a developing country, this paper quantifies impacts the effects of family structure on cognitive skills and learning performance among Thai students. The findings reveal that family structure, especially for those living with both father and mother, can positively affect the academic achievement of Thai students compared to those who do not live with both parents. Thus, strengthening family structures should be another necessary policy to could promote positive educational outcomes in this developing country.     

Urban poverty and health in developing countries: Household and neighborhood Effects

In the United States and other high-income countries, there is intense scholarly and programmatic interest in the effects of household and neighborhood living standards on health. Yet few studies of developing-country cities have explored these issues. We investigated whether the health of urban women and children in poor countries is influenced by both household and neighborhood standards of living. Using data from the urban samples of 85 Demographic and Health Surveys and modeling living standards using factor-analytic MIMIC methods, we found that the neighborhoods of relatively poor households are more heterogeneous than is often asserted. Our results indicated that poor urban households do not tend to live in uniformly poor neighborhoods: about 1 in 10 of a poor household’s neighbors is relatively affluent, belonging to the upper quartile of the urban distribution of living standards. Do household and neighborhood living standards influence health? Using multivariate models, we found that household living standards are closely associated with three health measures: unmet need for modern contraception, attendance of a trained health care provider at childbirth, and young children’s height for age. Neighborhood living standards exert a significant additional influence in many of the surveys we examined, especially for birth attendance.     

Determinants of mortality transition in developing countries before and after the Second World War: Some evidence from Cuba

Few studies provide an insight into what factors contributed to declines in the mortality rates of developing countries before the Second World War. In this paper, statistics on causes of death from Cuba, particularly Havana, are used to investigate what may have been some of the principal determinants of mortality decline in the developing world before the arrival of modern drugs and insecticides. Trends in cause-specific mortality are examined in the light of Cuba's social, economic, medical and public health history. The Cuban experience strongly suggests that in this country public health and sanitary reforms and nutritional improvements were largely responsible for initial declines in mortality throughout the first half of the twentieth century. One important finding is that the impact of these reforms and improved nutrition was greatly influenced by prevailing economic conditions. Periods of economic prosperity facilitated declines in mortality; but in times of adversity, the reverse occurred. It appears that during prosperous periods the maintenance and expansion of public health and sanitary facilities were made possible by increased public and private revenues, and that individuals had access to a more abundant diet. The severe economic crisis of the Great Depression had the opposite effect. With the appearance of sulphonamides in the late 1930s, antibiotics, and residual insecticides and other specific measures at the end of the Second World War, the relevance of economic conditions as a determinant of mortality decline diminished. Although this analysis points to the aforementioned trends, the Cuban experience also suggests that other factors enter into the process of declining mortality and that this phenomenon can only be explained as the result of the complex interplay of many forces.     

The role of environmental perceptions in migration decision-making: evidence from both migrants and non-migrants in five developing countries

Research has demonstrated that, in a variety of settings, environmental factors influence migration. Yet much of the existing work examines objective indicators of environmental conditions as opposed to the environmental perceptions of potential migrants. This paper examines migration decision-making and individual perceptions of different types of environmental change (sudden vs. gradual environmental events) with a focus on five developing countries: Vietnam, Cambodia, Uganda, Nicaragua, and Peru. The survey data include both migrants and non-migrants, with the results suggesting that individual perceptions of long-term (gradual) environmental events, such as droughts, lower the likelihood of internal migration. However, sudden-onset events, such as floods, increase movement. These findings substantially improve our understanding of perceptions as related to internal migration and also suggest that a more differentiated perspective is needed on environmental migration as a form of adaptation.     

Unwanted pregnancies and preventive health care use in Thailand

Research on the consequences of unwanted pregnancies can offer useful perspectives on the need to improve and expand the range of family planning options available to women in developing countries. This paper investigates the use of maternal and child health services by women who have unwanted or mistimed pregnancies. The results of our analysis indicate that wantedness of births exerts a significant influence on health care use in Thailand, after controlling for other determinants of utilization. Women with unwanted pregnancies are less likely to seek prenatal care or receive tetanus toxide inoculations. Further, women from disadvantaged socioeconomic groups, women with high parity and those with lower educational levels have the highest proportion of unintended pregnancies. The study concludes by making suitable policy recommendations.     

Different features and conditions of the fertility transition in the developed countries and the developing countries]

Differences between the demographic transition experienced by developed countries and that currently being experienced by developing countries are first discussed. The author then stresses the need for developing countries to lower fertility in order to foster socioeconomic development, rather than waiting for economic development to bring about reductions in fertility.     

Family size and maternal health: evidence from the One-Child policy in China

In this paper, we examine the impact of family size on maternal health outcomes by exploiting the tremendous change in family size under the One-Child policy in China. Using data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey 1993–2006, we find that mothers with fewer children have a higher calorie intake and a lower probability of being underweight and having low blood pressure; meanwhile, they have a higher probability of being overweight. This would occur if a smaller family size increases the food consumption of mothers, leading underweight women to attain a normal weight and normal weight women becoming overweight. Robust tests are performed to provide evidence on the hypothesis that the tradeoff between children’s quantity and mother’s “quality” is through a budget constraint mechanism, that is, having more children decreases the resource allocated to mothers and affects their health outcomes.     

The demand for children in Arab countries: evidence from panel and count data models

This paper provides empirical evidence on fertility determinants in Arab countries. Adopting a macro and micro framework and exploiting panel and count data models the paper estimates the impact of cultural and economic factors on the demand for children. The results obtained strongly support the hypothesis that cross-country heterogeneity buttresses differentiated fertility and that female education mitigates high fertility. Child mortality and parent‘s preferences for sons positively affect fertility. By and large, demand for children is price and income inelastic. Received: 30 May 1995 /Accepted: 19 February 1998     

Population aging and environmental quality in OECD countries: evidence from sulfur dioxide emissions data

Recent literature has suggested that population aging may shape energy demand and related emissions. Recent scholarship also suggests that emissions play a role in contemporary climate change and, as such, understanding the effect of population compositional change has considerable environmental policy importance. The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the macro-level relationship between population aging and emissions of sulfur dioxide. We extend a standard macroeconomic estimation function by including the age composition of the population. In doing so, we separate, for the first time in the literature on aging and the environment, the life-cycle dimension of the age structure from its cohort dimension. We utilize data representing a balanced panel of 25 OECD countries during the period from 1970 to 2000. Consistent with our expectations, we find that societies with a low proportion of young and a high proportion of senior citizens emit more sulfur dioxide. At the same time, our results suggest that a high proportion of individuals born before 1960 is positively correlated to national sulfur dioxide emissions. Our study contributes to understanding of past emission patterns in OECD countries and the findings may allow for improvements in future emission projections.     

Population growth overshooting and trade in developing countries

This paper examines a developing economy using a family-optimization model in which the number of children is a normal good. Trade liberalization generates two effects: the income effect that increases population growth and the gender wage effect that, in the short run, increases, but, in the long run, decreases population growth. With higher income, families invest more in capital if the status of the capital is significant. Because female labor is complementary to capital, higher investment increases the relative wages of women and attracts them from child rearing into production. Ultimately, the population growth falls below the original level.      

Perspectives on family and fertility in developing countries

Abstract Two aspects of the family in relation to fertility in developing countries are discussed: set stratification within the family and extended family networks. As both these are central to J. C. Caldwell's theory of fertility transition, the paper is structured as a critique of his position. Drawing on examples and data from Asia, it is argued that the causal significance of sex stratification for fertility lies in the economic risks it imposes on women, deriving from their dependence on men, rather than, as Caldwell suggests, in the disproportionate gain that men derive from their dominant position within families. While Caldwell and others associate strong extended family networks of mutual obligation and support with persistent high fertility, it is argued here that such systems should, instead, facilitate fertility decline. Close-knit and strong kin networks can be viewed as alternatives to children as sources of insurance, and may facilitate fertility decline by preventing children from becoming the focal point of parental concerns for security.     

Family planning and population control in developing countries

This essay aims at a critical analysis of the major assumptions of the family planning movement and their implications for population and development policy in the less developed countries. A neo-Malthusian perspective, in which a reduction of the current high rates of population growth is considered to be a necessary condition for economic development in the less developed countries, is dominant among professionals in family planning. Population control has come to be regarded as a kind of“leading sector” in the development process. The position taken in this paper is that the contention that fertility reduction is crucial to short term economic development is not substantiated empirically and represents a distorted view of the economic development process. Nor is there good evidence that demographic modernization can move far ahead of other aspects of modernization. Skepticism about the success of family planning tends to lead to advocacy of alternative methods of population control which are generally beyond the economic, administrative, and political capacities of the less developed countries and are sometimes repressive in tone. The family planning movement, in overstressing the independent contributions of fertility reduction programs, has tended to underplay conditions such as improved health, lowered mortality, and altered opportunity structure which make these contributions possible at all.     

Sibling rivalry and the gender gap: evidence from child health outcomes in Ghana

When capital and labor markets are imperfect, choice sets narrow, and parents must choose how to ration available funds and time between their children. One consequence is that children become rivals for household resources. In economies with pro-male bias, such rivalries can yield gains to having relatively more sisters than brothers. Using a rich household survey from Ghana, we find that on average if children had all sisters (and no brothers) they would do roughly 25-40% better on measured health indicators than if they had all brothers (and no sisters). The effects are as large as typical quantity-quality trade-offs, and they do not differ significantly by gender. Received: 22 May 1996 / Accepted: 13 July 1998     

Ethnic and parental effects on schooling outcomes before and during the transition: evidence from the Baltic countries

This paper examines human capital gap between titular ethnicities and Russian-speaking minorities, which has emerged in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania during the transition and remains significant after controlling for parental education. For recent cohorts, unexplained gap is declining in Lithuania (despite absence of Russian language tertiary education) and in Estonia. Furthermore, we investigate intergenerational mobility in the Baltic countries. Parental education has a strong positive effect on propensity to obtain tertiary education, both in the Soviet era and post-Soviet period. Transition to the market has weakened mother’s education effect for titular ethnicities, while the opposite is true for minorities.

Household dynamics and fuelwood consumption in developing countries: a cross-national analysis

Previous research has suggested a link between household dynamics (i.e., average household size and number of households) and environmental impacts at the national level. Building on this work, we empirically test the relationship between household dynamics and fuelwood consumption, which has been implicated in anthropogenic threats to biodiversity. We focus our analysis on developing countries (where fuelwood is an important energy source). Our results show that nations with smaller average households consume more fuelwood per capita. This finding indicates that the household economies of scale are, indeed, associated with the consumption of fuelwood. In addition, we found that number of households is a better predictor of total fuelwood consumption than average household size suggesting a greater relative contribution to consumption levels. Thus, insofar as declining average household sizes result in increased number of households and higher per capita consumption, this trend may be a signal of serious threats to biodiversity and resource conservation. We also found further support for the ??energy ladder?? hypothesis that economic development reduces demand for traditional fuels.     

An analysis of the fertility transition in developing countries]

Most developing countries are in the demographic stage of early mortality, high birth rates and high rates of natural population increase. A characteristic of developing countries is that after World War ii, particularly since the 1960s fertility rates are on the decline, even though they still remain high. The fertility rate of developed countries fell from a 1950 rate of 22.9/1000 to 15/1000 in 1982, a decrease of 34.5%, whereas the fertility rate of developing countries hovered around 43/1000 between 1930-1950, 40.6/1000 during the 1960s and 33/1000 in 1982. Between 1950 and 1982 there was a decrease of 24.8%. But the main reason for this decrease is the decline in the last 20 years of the fertility rates of China and India, whose rates fell 34.9% from 1960-1980. Changes in fertility rates are influenced by the age structure of a country, as seen in the changing age structure of developing countries from 1960-80. For example, an increase in fertility rates was 1 consequence of an increase in the number of fertile women aged 15-45 from 42.6% in 1960 to 44.4% in 1980. Nevertheless, there exists some sort of birth control, whether conscious or subconscious, because the number of births per fertile woman is 3-4 fewer than the 14-15 children a woman can theoretically bear. The reason for changes in fertility rates in developing countries can be traced to marriage and family customs, and even more important, to social and economic factors. For example, Asian, African and Latin American cultures tend to support early marriages. When the fertility rates of developed and developing countries are looked at for a comparable period, then the rate of decrease for developing countries is slower than developed countries. But, if the comparison is made for a transitional period (i.e., industrialization), then the rate of decrease for developing countries is faster than for developed countries. Currently there are 25 developing countries that have attained a fertility rate of 25/1000 or lower, and 52 developing countries with a rate of 35/1000.     

Population problems in the economic development of developing countries]

The relationship between economic development and agricultural and urban population growth rates in developing countries is discussed. The author concludes that long-range economic planning must include population policies.     

Trade, population growth, and the environment in developing countries

We examine pollution in a developing country where fertility is endogenous and wealth increases welfare through status. When the country has defective environmental laws, it has a comparative advantage in capital-intensive “dirty” goods. Gains from trade due to trade liberalization then increase income and boost population growth. With strong incentives to save, they also stimulate investment, which hampers population growth. Because population growth crowds out labor supply, production of capital-intensive dirty goods first increases and then decreases. This yields a typical environmental Kuznets path: pollution increases at the earlier stages but decreases at the later stages of development.