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1.
Barbara Wolfe Robert Haveman Karen Pence Jonathan A. Schwabish 《Journal of population economics》2007,20(1):73-100
We hypothesize that teen nonmarital birth events are influenced by adolescent girls’ perceptions of the consequences of their
choices. Two such consequences are explored: (1) a teen’s expected future marriage and cohabitation relationships and (2)
the present value of expected future income. We also measure the effects of the characteristics of the teen, her prior choices,
her family, her neighborhood, and the social and economic environment in which she lives. The results, based on the Michigan
Panel Study of Income Dynamics, suggest that teens place greater weight on the relationship consequences than the income consequences,
but that both consequences influence their nonmarital birth choices.
相似文献
Jonathan A. SchwabishEmail: |
2.
Suzanne Ryan Jennifer Manlove Sandra L. Hofferth 《Population research and policy review》2006,25(1):103-126
Using discrete time event history analyses of data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), we examine the association
between state-level welfare waiver policies implemented before the 1996 welfare reform legislation and the risk of a nonmarital
subsequent birth. Our study makes a unique contribution to the existing literature by using a national-level sample of unmarried
mothers who ever received welfare. This high-risk sample represents the women of most interest to policymakers, as it is the
exact group to whom welfare reform is targeted—welfare mothers at risk of having nonmarital additional births. The state policies
we study include: family cap, earnings disregard, work exemptions, work requirements, and sanctions. We conclude that, although
reducing the number of nonmarital births is a key goal of welfare reform, state-established welfare waiver policies do not
have any influence on women’s childbearing behaviors in this sample, net of women’s individual characteristics and state economic
environments. Even the family cap policy, which was designed for the sole purpose of reducing additional births, has no significant
association with nonmarital subsequent childbearing. Instead, personal characteristics, not public policies, are stronger
determinants of women’s childbearing decisions. Age, race/ethnicity, marital status, number of previous children, education
level, and welfare receipt are significantly associated with nonmarital subsequent births. Overall, this paper contributes
to an expanding body of research that shows minimal effects of welfare waivers on fertility. Our work suggests that more targeted
policies are necessary to be able to influence individual family formation behaviors. 相似文献
3.
Researchers continue to question fathers’ willingness to report their biological children in surveys and the ability of surveys
to adequately represent fathers. To address these concerns, this study evaluates the quality of men’s fertility data in the
1979 and 1997 cohorts of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79 and NLSY97) and in the 2002 National Survey of
Family Growth (NSFG). Comparing fertility rates in each survey with population rates based on data from Vital Statistics and
the U.S. Census Bureau, we document how the incomplete reporting of births in different surveys varies according to men’s
characteristics, including their age, race, marital status, and birth cohort. In addition, we use Monte Carlo simulations
based on the NSFG data to demonstrate how birth underreporting biases associations between early parenthood and its antecedents.
We find that in the NSFG, roughly four out of five early births were reported; but in the NLSY79 and NLSY97, almost nine-tenths
of early births were reported. In all three surveys, incomplete reporting was especially pronounced for nonmarital births.
Our results suggest that the quality of male fertility data is strongly linked to survey design and that it has implications
for models of early male fertility. 相似文献
4.
Joseph J. Sabia 《Journal of population economics》2008,21(1):111-134
While reducing out-of-wedlock childbearing is a central goal of welfare reform, most policymakers prefer achieving this objective
via a reduction in nonmarital pregnancy rates rather than through an increase in the incidence of abortion. Using aggregate
state-level data from 1984 to 1998, I estimate fixed effects models that allow for autocorrelated and heteroskedastic disturbances
to examine the association between the family cap and nonmarital birth, pregnancy, and abortion rates. I find robust evidence
that the family cap is associated with a reduction in nonmarital birth rates, particularly among black women. This reduction
is driven by a reduction in nonmarital pregnancy rates rather than through an increase in abortion or marriage rates. These
findings suggest that that the stigmatizing effect of the family cap may influence the nonmarital pregnancy decisions of black
women.
相似文献
Joseph J. SabiaEmail: |
5.
Aassve A 《Demography》2003,40(1):105-126
This paper extends previous work on premarital childbearing by modeling both the entry rates and the exit rates of unwed motherhood among young American women. In particular, I investigate the impact of economic resources on the likelihood of experiencing a premarital birth and then of subsequent marriage. Using a multiple-destination, multiple-spell hazard regression model and a microsimulation analysis, I analyze the accumulating effects of various economic variables. The results show that the economic resources are indeed important both for premarital childbearing and for subsequent marriage. However, the simulations show that large changes in these economic variables do not necessarily translate into large changes in nonmarital childbearing. 相似文献
6.
This article disaggregates change in adolescent fertility between 1971 and 1979 into four components: change in marriage patterns, in nonmarital sex, in pregnancy, and in birth. It also assesses quantitatively the relative contribution of each component to the change over time in two fertility outcomes: the probability of a nonmarital live birth and, given a live birth, the odds of its being nonmarital. The changes in the probability of sexual debut prior to marriage and in marriage patterns themselves are the two most important contributors to these changes. The influence on the change in adolescent fertility outcomes of the decreased likelihood of marriage following a nonmarital pregnancy was compensated for by the increased use of abortion to terminate the pregnancy. 相似文献
7.
Using retrospective union, birth, and education histories that span 1980–2003, this study investigates nonmarital childbearing
in contemporary Russia. We employ a combination of methods to decompose fertility rates by union status and analyze the processes
that lead to a nonmarital birth. We find that the increase in the percentage of nonmarital births was driven mainly by the
growing proportion of women who cohabit before conception, not changing fertility behavior of cohabitors or changes in union
behavior after conception. The relationship between education and nonmarital childbearing has remained stable: the least-educated
women have the highest birth rates within cohabitation and as single mothers, primarily because of their lower probability
of legitimating a nonmarital conception. These findings suggest that nonmarital childbearing Russia has more in common with
the pattern of disadvantage in the United States than with the second demographic transition. We also find several aspects
of nonmarital childbearing that neither of these perspectives anticipates. 相似文献
8.
Despite the dramatic rise in U.S. nonmarital childbearing in recent decades, limited attention has been paid to factors affecting nonmarital fatherhood (beyond studies of young fathers). In this article, we use data from the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort to examine the antecedents of nonmarital fatherhood, as compared to marital fatherhood. Overall, we find the strongest support across both data sets for education and race/ethnicity as key predictors of having a nonmarital first birth, consistent with prior literature about women’s nonmarital childbearing and about men’s early/teenage fatherhood. Education is inversely related to the risk of nonmarital fatherhood, and minority (especially black) men are much more likely to have a child outside of marriage than white men. We find little evidence that employment predicts nonmarital fertility, although it does strongly (and positively) predict marital fertility. High predicted earnings are also associated with a greater likelihood of marital childbearing but with a lower likelihood of nonmarital childbearing. Given the socioeconomic disadvantage associated with nonmarital fatherhood, this research suggests that nonmarital fatherhood may be an important aspect of growing U.S. inequality and stratification both within and across generations. 相似文献
9.
Our recent paper in Demography (Gray, Stockard, and Stone 2006) has attracted the close scrutiny of several prominent academics. Three sets of formal comments, authored independently by Ermisch, Martin, and Wu (EMW), appear in this issue of Demography. In this response we argue that the analysis and evidence of our 2006 paper have withstood the scrutiny of EMW. In particular, we find that a substantial part of the rising share of nonmarital births since 1970 is due to a selection effect associated with marriage. This same selection effect also explains how birth rates could rise in both groups, even though their combined birth rate did not. In sum, though we appreciate the opportunity to expand on several key aspects of our 2006 article, we see no reason to substantially revise any of our major conclusions based on the EMW comments. 相似文献
10.
Rachel M. Shattuck 《Demography》2017,54(4):1451-1475
Most young people in the United States express the desire to marry. Norms at all socioeconomic levels posit marriage as the optimal context for childbearing. At the same time, nonmarital fertility accounts for approximately 40 % of U.S. births, experienced disproportionately by women with educational attainment less than a bachelor’s degree. Research has shown that women’s intentions for the number and timing of children and couples’ intent to marry are strong predictors of realized fertility and marriage. The present study investigates whether U.S. young women’s preferences about nonmarital fertility, as stated before childbearing begins, predict their likelihood of having a nonmarital first birth. I track marriage and fertility histories through ages 24–30 of women asked at ages 11–16 whether they would consider unmarried childbearing. One-quarter of women who responded “no” in fact had a nonmarital birth by age 24–30. The ability of women and their partners to access material resources in adulthood were, as expected, the strongest predictors of the likelihood of nonmarital childbearing. Nonetheless, I find that women who said they would not consider nonmarital childbearing had substantially higher hazards of fertility postponement and especially of marital fertility, even after controlling for race/ethnicity, mother’s educational attainment, family of origin intactness, self-efficacy and planning ability, perceived future prospects, and markers of own educational attainment and work experience into early adulthood. 相似文献
11.
We document a negative association between nonmarital childbearing and the subsequent likelihood of first marriage in the United States, controlling for a variety of potentially confounding influences. Nonmarital childbearing does not appear to be driven by low expectations of future marriage. Rather, it tends to be an unexpected and unwanted event, whose effects on a woman’s subsequent likelihood of first marriage are negative on balance. We find that women who bear a child outside marriage and who receive welfare have a particularly low probability of marrying subsequently, although there is no evidence that AFDC recipients have lower expectations of marriage. In addition, we find no evidence that stigma associated with nonmarital childbearing plays an important role in this process or that the demands of children significantly reduce unmarried mothers’ time for marriage market activities. 相似文献
12.
Labor migration profoundly affects households throughout rural Africa. This study looks at how men’s labor migration influences
marital fertility in a context where such migration has been massive while its economic returns are increasingly uncertain.
Using data from a survey of married women in southern Mozambique, we start with an event-history analysis of birth rates among
women married to migrants and those married to nonmigrants. The model detects a lower birth rate among migrants’ wives, which
tends to be partially compensated for by an increased birth rate upon cessation of migration. An analysis of women’s lifetime
fertility shows that it decreases as the time spent in migration by their husbands accrues. When we compare reproductive intentions
stated by respondents with migrant and nonmigrant husbands, we find that migrants’ wives are more likely to want another child
regardless of the number of living children, but the difference is significant only for women who see migration as economically
benefiting their households. Yet, such women are also significantly more likely to use modern contraception than other women.
We interpret these results in light of the debate on enhancing versus disrupting effects of labor migration on families and
households in contemporary developing settings. 相似文献
13.
We merge census microdata with vital statistics data to examine the effect of women's marriage opportunities on nonmarital fertility rates and ratios across 75 U.S. metropolitan areas. Measures of the quantity and "quality" of marriageable men simultaneously specific for women's age, race, education, and place of residence reveal especially poor marriage prospects for highly educated black women. The effect of mate availability on nonmarital fertility is generally modest. Among white women, marriage opportunities are associated inversely with the nonmarital fertility rate, perhaps reflecting an increased likelihood that a premarital conception will be legitimated. Marriage opportunities also reduce nonmarital fertility ratios for young black and white women. The nonmarital fertility rate is lower among women whose marriage pool includes a large percentage of nonemployed males. Only a small proportion of the racial difference in nonmarital fertility appears attributable to differences in the marriage markets of black and of white women. 相似文献
14.
Wu LL 《Demography》2008,45(1):193-207
Historical trends in U.S. nonmarital fertility have been compiled almost exclusively from vital statistics on births. This paper complements this historical record by providing cohort estimates of nonmarital fertility for cohorts of U.S. women spanning approximately 50 years of cohort experience. Life table estimates using retrospective marital and fertility histories in the June 1980, 1985, 1990, and 1995 Current Population Surveys reveal nonnegligible levels of nonmarital fertility historically. For women born between 1925 and 1929, nearly 1 in 10 had at least one nonmarital birth by age 30. For women born between 1965 and 1969, more than 1 of 4 had one or more nonmarital births by age 30, with roughly 1 of5 white, 3 of 5 black, and 1 in 3 Hispanic women having at least one nonmarital birth by age 30. Life table estimates reveal a twofold increase between ages 20 and 30 in the percentage of women with at least one child outside of formal marriage for all cohorts of white and Hispanic women, and an increase of roughly two-thirds for all cohorts of black women. I also document qualitative differences in nonmarital fertility by race/ethnicity, with the percentage of nonmarital births following a divorce or marital separation for white women approximately twice that for black or Hispanic women. Finally, I introduce a new measure, the cohort nonmarital fertility ratio (CNMFR), which provides a cohort complement to the standard period nonmarital fertility ratio. Conservative estimates reveal a roughly threefold increase in the CNMFR for women born from 1925-1929 to 1950-1954 for both whites and blacks, despite substantially higher levels of nonmarital fertility among black women. Overall, these findings reveal surprisingly high levels of nonmarital fertility for women born since the 1920s and confirm that nonmarital fertility has become an increasingly substantial component of overall U.S. fertility. 相似文献
15.
Quanbao Jiang Shuzhuo Li Marcus W. Feldman 《Population research and policy review》2011,30(4):619-638
The large number of missing females in China, a consequence of gender discrimination, is having and will continue to have
a profound effect on the country’s population development. In this paper, we analyze the causes of this gender discrimination
in terms of institutions, culture and, economy, and suggest public policies that might help eliminate gender discrimination.
Using a population simulation model, we study the effect of public policies on the sex ratio at birth and excess female child
mortality, and the effect of gender discrimination on China’s population development. We find that gender discrimination will
decrease China’s population size, number of births, and working age population, accelerate population aging and exacerbate
the male marriage squeeze. These results provide theoretical support for suggesting that the government enact and implement
public policies aimed at eliminating gender discrimination. 相似文献
16.
Ann E. Horvath-Rose H. Elizabeth Peters Joseph J. Sabia 《Population research and policy review》2008,27(2):119-138
An explicit goal of policymakers in drafting welfare reform policies was to reduce incentives for nonmarital childbearing.
This paper estimates the extent to which state welfare reforms have lowered age and race-specific nonmarital fertility. Using
state-level data from 1984 to 1999—a time period that includes the passage and implementation of national welfare reform—we
estimate fixed effects models corrected for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. We find evidence that the family cap,
a policy that decreases or eliminates the incremental increase in benefits for mothers who have an additional child while
on welfare, is associated with a decline in nonmarital birth ratios. However, we also find that the family cap is associated
with higher marital birth rates. Taken together with other research, our findings suggest evidence of policy endogeneity.
相似文献
Joseph J. Sabia (Corresponding author)Email: |
17.
Mate availability and unmarried parent relationships 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Harknett K 《Demography》2008,45(3):555-571
Theoretically, a shortage of males in a local marriage market may influence the formation, quality, and trajectory of unmarried parent relationships. To test these hypotheses, I combine city-level sex ratio data from the U.S. census with microdata on unmarried couples who recently had a child from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing study. A shortage of men in a marriage market is associated with lower relationship quality for unmarried parents. Male shortages are associated with lower rates of marriage following a nonmarital birth, in part because of the mediating influence of relationship quality. A shortage of men is not significantly related to the economic quality of male, nonmarital childbearing partners. 相似文献
18.
Karen Benjamin Guzzo 《Population research and policy review》2009,28(6):853-872
This paper uses the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth to examine paternity establishment among men’s nonmarital births.
Using births as the unit of analysis, I find that paternity establishment for first births (n = 661) is linked to race/ethnicity and relationship status at birth, and these characteristics are associated differently
with the timing and location of paternity establishment (in-hospital or at some later point). For higher-parity births (n = 429), paternity establishment for a particular birth is strongly related to prior paternity and fertility behaviors. Paternity
is less likely to be established for a higher-parity birth if the father failed to establish paternity for at least one earlier
birth, and third or higher-parity births are far more likely to have paternity established at a subsequent point than at the
hospital. 相似文献
19.
Standardization and decomposition are established and widely used demographic techniques for comparing rates and means between
groups with differences in composition. The difference in rates and means has heretofore been resolved in terms of the contribution
of variables to compositional effects for each variable and an overall rate effect. This study demonstrates that the resolution
of differences is attainable at the categorical level for both compositional effects and rate effects. Refinements to Das
Gupta’s equations yield a complete decomposition because of the additivity of categorical compositional and rate effects.
Other refinements allow the decomposition of polytomous variables. Extensions to the method provide for the decomposition
of the standard deviation and the multivariate index of dissimilarity. 相似文献
20.
Marcia Carlson Irwin Garfinkel Sara McLanahan Ronald Mincy Wendell Primus 《Population research and policy review》2004,23(5-6):513-542
We use data from a new longitudinal survey – the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study – to examine how welfare and child support policies, and local labor market conditions, affect union formation among unmarried parents who have just had a child together. We use multinomial logistic regression to estimate the effects of the policy variables along with economic, cultural/interpersonal, and other factors on whether (relative to being in a cohabiting relationship) parents are not romantically involved, romantically involved living apart, or married to each other about one year after the child's birth. We find that – contrary to some previous research – higher welfare benefits discourage couples from breaking up, while strong child support enforcement reduces the chances that unmarried parents will marry; local unemployment rates do not appear to be strongly associated with union formation decisions after a nonmarital birth. 相似文献