论人口素质在和谐社会发展中的作用

人口素质是社会历史发展的产物,它与社会的全面进步相联系,又给社会的全面发展以巨大的推动作用。和谐社会的发展离不开人口素质的提高。充分认识人口素质在和谐社会中的主导作用,将利于和谐社会的全面发展。人口素质的作用,可以概括为五个方面:人口科学文化素质有利于社会整体水平的提高,加速和谐社会的发展;人口政治素质能够调节社会矛盾,促进和谐社会的发展;人口身体素质能够推动经济进步,有助于和谐社会的发展;人口综合素质能够创造良好的人口环境,有利于和谐社会的发展;提高人口素质观的认识,确保和谐社会的发展。     

长江三角洲人力资源的开发与整合

长江三角洲是中国人力资源新的积聚地,在人力资源上具备比较优势,但由于缺乏相应的一体化设计,长江三角洲的人力资源未能得到有效开发与整合,在人力资源日益成为第一性经济资源的今天,这种状况应尽快改变。进一步推进长江三角洲地区人力资源开发与整合须把握三个关键:即产业能级设置、城市功能定位及一体化的社会保障制度,人力资源在相应的城市环境中发挥迁移作用,而社会保障的一体化则为人力资源的流动提供软性机制。     

十六国暑期的河西人口

史书中关于汉唐时期河西走廊人口以西汉最盛、唐代次之、西晋最少的记载是错误的。十六国时期的河西人口已大大超过汉之盛时。但是,在此一百多年间,河西人口既不是固定不变的,也不是稳定增长的。前凉时期,由于中原人口的大量迁入和统治者的大力经营,河西人口出现了大幅度增长的势头;在此以后,先是后凉的残暴统治,接着是各霸主间的互相攻伐,使河西社会动荡不安,人口死亡、流失严重,许多人被迁出河西,河西人口出现了停滞和下降的趋势。     

乡-城转移人口的生育率水平问题

乡一城人口转移作为城市化过程,总体上有利于生育率下降或低生育水平的稳定。但是,由于乡一城转移人口的生育率水平具有既不同于城也有别于乡的差别特征,因此这种转移对城乡生育率的变化必然产生一定的差别效应。通常认为,乡一城转移人口的生育率水平介于城乡之间,即低于乡而高于城。但是,有关研究认为,我国乡一城迁移流动人口的生育率水平已经转变为低于城市。对此,很值得进一步深入探讨。本文首先分析我国城乡生育率的变化和区域差异,然后对乡一城转移人口的总和生育率进行尝试性的推算,最后聚焦讨论流动人口生育行为的流动性问题。     

西部人口转变探析

利用1969-1998全国分省人口的统计资料,描述了西部人口转变的过程,比较了西部与东部和全国人口转变的差异,以及西部内部人口转变的差异,总结出西部人口转变的三个特点,指出西部人口转变的彻底完成还有待于西部地区的全面发展。     

职业流动、人力资本对流动人口收入影响及其代际差异

基于2013年我国七个大城市“流动人口管理和服务对策研究”调查数据,使用OLS回归和分位数回归方法,实证分析了职业流动、人力资本对流动人口收入影响及其代际差异。结果显示：一是人力资本对流动人口收入水平有着显著正向影响。但人力资本对两代流动人口的收入影响不同,其中受教育年限、现职业工作年限对新生代流动人口收入的促进更大,在外务工年限对第一代流动人口收入的促进作用更大。二是职业流动与第二代流动人口的收入呈现显著相关性,然而并非线性的影响,而是呈现倒U型非线性模式;但职业流动对第一代流动人口收入影响不显著。文章最后结合研究得出的观点和结论,探讨了本项研究的政策启示。     

西北地区人才资本结构的现状及其成因分析

在工业革命时期人力资本是经济增长和经济发展的内生性要素和“引擎”。而在知识经济时代人才资本将成为经济发展的决定性因素。改革开放以来,西北地区一些省份人才的数量与质量都处于全国的前几位,但人才大省与经济穷省却相伴而随。其根本的原因是人力资本对经济的促进作用,不完全取决于人才的数量、甚至质量,在很大程度上取决于人才资本结构。文章以西北地区人才资本的“梯度流”与“逆梯度流”及“人才高消费”现象作为切入点,探索了西北地区的人才资本结构的现状及成因剖析。     

20世纪90年代我国丧偶人口状况分析

本文利用“四普”和“五普”资料,对我国20世纪90年代丧偶人口这一特殊群体进行分析。发现我国丧偶人口在年龄上出现一定程度的“老化”,在性别上呈现男性化的倾向。城乡丧偶率在不断扩大,农村丧偶老人较城市丧偶老人而言有更大的增长。女性丧偶人口的整体文化程度仍然低于男性,随着受教育水平的升高,女性和男性丧偶人口的差别越来越大,越来越多的女性丧偶人口处于文盲半文盲状态。不同职业的丧偶率差异较大,就业层次越低,丧偶率越高。随着社会的发展,不同职业人口的丧偶率差距渐渐缩小。不同年龄的丧偶人口在家庭规模分布上差异较大,丧偶人口居住的家庭在不断小型化。     

发展慈善事业,破解老龄化困境

随着用于弥补养老金缺口的财政补贴逐年增大,我国未来财政不足将严重制约老龄事业的发展。受公共物品非效率性和道德风险的双重制约,仅靠政府独立负担养老金的政策已无法有效应对我国日趋严重的老龄化问题。结合慈善事业发展的特点和趋势,从"政民结合"视角探讨发展慈善事业对于解决我国老龄财政困境的可行性和必要性,并提出相应的对策建议。     

经济增长不等于发展——对全面、协调和可持续的科学发展观的认识和思考

发展是中国共产党执政兴国的第一要务。中国共产党坚持什么样的发展,能不能解决好发展问题,直接关系到人心向背、事业兴衰。当前存在的"发展才是硬道理"被曲解为"经济增长是硬道理","以经济建设为中心"被演化为"以GDP为中心"。但经济增长不等于经济发展,经济发展不能完全代替发展。     

Gender Pay Gap and Employment Sector: Sources of Earnings Disparities in the United States, 1970–2010

Using data from the IPUMS-USA, the present research focuses on trends in the gender earnings gap in the United States between 1970 and 2010. The major goal of this article is to understand the sources of the convergence in men’s and women’s earnings in the public and private sectors as well as the stagnation of this trend in the new millennium. For this purpose, we delineate temporal changes in the role played by major sources of the gap. Several components are identified: the portion of the gap attributed to gender differences in human-capital resources; labor supply; sociodemographic attributes; occupational segregation; and the unexplained portion of the gap. The findings reveal a substantial reduction in the gross gender earnings gap in both sectors of the economy. Most of the decline is attributed to the reduction in the unexplained portion of the gap, implying a significant decline in economic discrimination against women. In contrast to discrimination, the role played by human capital and personal attributes in explaining the gender pay gap is relatively small in both sectors. Differences between the two sectors are not only in the size and pace of the reduction but also in the significance of the two major sources of the gap. Working hours have become the most important factor with respect to gender pay inequality in both sectors, although much more dominantly in the private sector. The declining gender segregation may explain the decreased impact of occupations on the gender pay gap in the private sector. In the public sector, by contrast, gender segregation still accounts for a substantial portion of the gap. The findings are discussed in light of the theoretical literature on sources of gender economic inequality and in light of the recent stagnation of the trend.     

社会安全阀机制与贫富差距调适

当前,我国贫富差距较大已是一客观不争的社会事实。社会安全阀机制则起着调适贫富差距的作用,从而缓解了贫富差距所可能导致的利益和社会冲突,维持和促进了社会的稳定与发展。研究立足于贫富差距较大的客观现实,着重对现有社会安全阀机制进行分析,并指出在健全和完善相应社会安全阀机制的基础上消除较大的贫富差距。     

New household projections for the united states

This paper reviews the methods used to prepare the new household projections for the United States that were recently issued by the Bureau of the Census and examines the effect on the resulting number of households of the assumptions made about future marriages and future proportions of household heads in the population.One population projection series was used, since all series are identical for the adult population. Marriage assumptions were generated by assuming various outcomes of the marriage squeeze (defined as the excess of females relative to the number of males in the main ages at marriage in the next few years). Assumptions about proportions of household heads were generated by assuming, in varying degrees, continuation of recent trends in these proportions.Projected changes in marriage and in the proportions of household heads in the population account for one-fourth to one-third of the projected increase in the number of households; the remaining increase is attributable to projected changes in the size and structure of the adult population. Varying the assumed proportions of household heads produces greater differences in the projected total number of households than does varying the marriage assumptions used here. Nevertheless, the various possible outcomes of the marriage squeeze, as represented by the assumptions used, produce significantly different projections of increases in the number of young husband-wife households.The most striking finding is that by 1985, proportions of household heads among the population not "married, spouse present" may well rise to such a level that over the long term, the smaller the number of persons who marry, the larger will be the number of households.     

Afghan Migratory Strategies and the Three Solutions to the Refugee Problem

The present article proposes three main theses: the normalityof movements and the prior existence of transnational networksin and around Afghanistan; the resilience and inventivenessof the Afghan population, especially illustrated by the remittancesystem; the relevance of migratory movements and of transnationalnetworks for the reconstruction of the country and the stabilityof the region. In contrast to the migratory strategies developedby the refugees, the three solutions to the problem of the refugeespromoted by the UNHCR (voluntary repatriation in the countryof origin; integration in the host country; resettlement ina third country) are based on the idea that solutions are foundwhen movements stop. But mobility may be seen as a key livelihoodstrategy. A more comprehensive solution is needed, which takesinto account the full range of strategies and responses developedby the Afghan population, including the back-and-forth movementsbetween Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran and beyond.     

Relative humidity as an environmental factor determining the microhabitat of the nymphs of the rice brown planthopper,Nilaparvata lugens (St?l) (Homoptera: Delphacidae)

Summary Microhabitat of the nymphs and the adults of the rice brown, planthopper,Nilaparvata lugens is known to be the lower parts of rice plants. In this study, possible environmental factors determining the range of the microhabitat were experimentally analyzed by using the nymphs under laboratory conditions. Thirty individuals of the 1st or the 3rd instar nymphs were released to a potted rice plant covered with a transparent acrylic cylinder. When the top of the cylinder was kept opening (open condition), the temperatures in the cylinder were almost constant, and relative humidities in the cylinder decreased with the increase of the height from the water surface of the pot. In the open condition, most nymphs and all exuviae were found on the basal parts of rice plants where the humidity was more than ca. 90% r.h. When the top of the cylinder was kept closing with parafilm (closed condition), the temperatures in the cylinder were almost constant, and relative humidities in the cylinder were more than 95% r.h. In the closed condition, the nymphs and the exuviae were distributed sparsely to the whole parts of rice plants. In both of the open and the closed conditions, patterns of nymphal distributions on rice plants during the dark regime were the same as those during the light regime under 25±2°C and 16L∶8D. Four different temperatures ranging from 20°C to 35°C did not influence on the microhabitat in the open condition. It was concluded from the results that relative humidity is the important environmental factor to determine the microhabitat of the nymphs ofN. lugens which showed to prefer very humid condition more than ca. 90% r.h.     

20世纪90年代中期以来西北地区城镇居民收入差距波动研究

在西北地区经济持续高速增长,城镇居民生活水平提高的同时,他们的基尼系数也在随之发生波动．总的趋势较平稳,但稳中有降。通过运用基尼系数和泰尔熵指数为分析工具。发现该地区城镇居民的组间收入差距在总差距中占主导因素。统筹区域经济协调发展,中央政府应该在发展中逐步缩小地区间收入差距。     

简析西北五省区城镇化

随着我国现代化建设的发展 ,实施城镇化战略决策 ,加速城镇化建设步伐 ,对于促进经济结构的优化与调整 ,推动国民经济持续快速增长具有十分重要的意义。文章从分析城镇化的涵义着手 ,在对西北地区城镇化的现状及存在问题分析的基础上 ,对影响我国西北地区人口城镇化的主要相关因素、西北地区城镇化的预期及其发展优势等作了综合分析。     

东北老工业基地生态经济建设面临的问题与对策

党中央国务院关于振兴东北等老工业基地战略决策的推出,给东北三省带来了新的发展机遇。如何把经济发展和环境保护结合起来,走生态经济之路,是摆在我们东北人面前的重大课题。我们应当面对东北的发展现状,对存在的问题进行深刻的思考和综合分析,从而找出东北加快生态经济建设的对策措施。     

A New Generalized Variance Approach for Measuring Multidimensional Inequality and Poverty

The paper suggests a new generalized variance concept for measuring multidimensional inequality of a stratified society, based on multivariate statistical methods, where the members of society form a cloud in the oblique space of dimensions of inequality, such as income, expenditure and property. The cloud presents the multidimensional inequality capsulized in the cloud. The goal is to condense all the inequality information embodied by the cloud into a composite compact metric characterizing both the shape and the inner structure of the cloud. Contrary to the conventional literature that considers multidimensionality as a unidimensional weighted combination of the dimensions, our new composite index measures the inequality of the configuration of the points in the cloud. Our aim is twofold. First, we introduce the Inequality Covariance Matrix (ICM) assigned to the cloud, with elements measuring the correlations among dimensions. Having ICM, we propose the Generalized Variance (GV) of ICM to measure the composite Generalized Variance Inequality (GVI) level. Second, to evaluate the stratum-specific structure of the overall inequality, we suggest a new two-stage procedure. In the first stage, we divide the total GVI into between-groups and within-groups effects. Then, in the second stage the contributions of the strata to the within-groups inequality and, the contributions of the dimensions to the between-groups inequality are calculated. This GVI approach is sensitive to the correlation system, decomposable into stratum effects and, the number of dimensions is not limited. Moreover, including the log-dimensions in the analysis, GVI yields an Entropy Covariance Matrix giving a new Generalized Variance Entropy index. Finally, the GVI of censored poverty indicators means multidimensional poverty measurement. This special complex task is not yet solved in the traditional literature so far.

     

2000年以来中国城乡生育水平的比较分析

我国城乡生育水平、发展趋势及差异程度的对比研究对于人口发展问题意义重大。首先通过运算,得出了城乡总和生育率指标数值,呈现出2000年以来十年间城乡生育状况,然后对这些数据进行了细致的比较与分析。研究结果表明：尽管十年中生育水平呈现波动状态,但农村总和生育率一直都低于1．8,城镇则低于1．3,差异近几年有逐步缩小的趋势;城乡生育水平差异主要来自二孩生育率的差异,二孩生育率近十年来有微弱上升趋势;一孩生育率受民俗等因素影响较大,城镇波动大于农村;平均生育年龄推迟现象在城镇、农村一直都在缓慢持续。