Food security, consumption diversification and foreign exchange balances in Indonesia: Results from a multi-commodity simulation

Many countries adopt economic development strategies, within which an important element is the maintenance of low and stable food prices. In Indonesia, this is achieved principally through government subsidies to consumers of imported rice, the total cost of which fluctuates considerably from year to year, depending on world price movements and domestic production performance. Higher and possibly less stable domestic food prices appear inevitable in Indonesia, however, as the spectre of reduced oil revenues increases the government's concern with the cost of its food policy. Results from a stochastic simulation model of the agricultural sector show that the food price risk to which consumers and producers would be exposed in the absence of the stabilizing component of Indonesia's food policy would be considerable, rendering this component an unlikely area for significant change. A viable policy option appears to be the continuance of rice and wheat price stabilization, but with a graduated increase in the relative price of rice, reaching a total of 10% by 1985. Such a policy could result in net self-sufficiency in foreign exchange from staple food trade by 1990 and an improvement in aggregate economic surplus, although the expected decade improvement in food-energy consumption per capita would fall from 10% to 8%.     

Welfare Rigidity,the Composition of Public Expenditure and the Welfare Trap

Welfare expenditure is characterized by rigidity, i.e., it goes up easily but is very hard to get down. We introduced welfare rigidity into an endogenous growth model that includes government expenditure to analyze the impact of welfare rigidity and the composition of public expenditure on economic growth and family utility. Our findings show that welfare spending and economic growth have a non-monotonic relationship that is negative or inverted U-shaped depending on cross-country differences. Higher welfare rigidity reduces long-term economic growth and household utility. According to the estimated optimal size of welfare expenditure, China, as a developing country with a large population, has to do all it can to improve people’s livelihood but must at the same time weigh its limited resources so that its welfare expenditure does not fall into a “welfare trap.”     

现阶段宏观工业经济效益基本理论探析

经济效益就是经济活动的所得与经济活动的所费的比值。现阶段宏观工业经济效益是指现阶段经济形态下整个工业部门实现的能够满足人民各种需要的所得与为取得这些所得而必需的所费之间的比值。宏观工业经济效益同其他部门经济效益联系密切,与社会效益在本质上并不矛盾。     

Winners and losers in Vietnam equitisation programs

This article develops a computable general equilibrium model of Vietnam to assess the long-run likely effects of the country's equitisation programs on its national economic outcomes and industries. Equitisation is found to be pro-growth as reflected in its contribution to increasing real GDP growth rate in the long run. In terms of industrial output growth rates, the winners include electrical, steel and other manufacturing, while the losers include rice and paddy, and oil, gas and petroleum. To achieve better economic outcomes, the coverage of equitisation should be extended to include medium to large state-owned enterprises across all industries.     

The impact of India’s food security policy on domestic and international rice market

Food security policy making in India is at crossroads. India has emerged as a leading rice exporter. The Government of India has introduced the National Food Security Act which requires 33.6 million tons of rice per year for its public food distribution system. In this study, we modeled India’s rice market and analyzed policy implications of the long-term impact of India’s food security act on domestic and international rice market. We developed a structural economic demand and supply model for India’s rice market and further added subsidy equations to trace the consequence of National Food Security Act on domestic rice consumption and on the international market. We specifically focus on three different scenarios: subsidy as price effect, subsidy as inelastic income effect, and subsidy as elastic income effect under the broader framework of National Food Security Act. We found that at the end of the projection period (2024–2025), as a result of rice subsidy program, the consumption of rice increases significantly in the case of price effect while the inelastic income effect has no or less impact on production, consumption, and export of rice. Hence, the policy implication of our study is that if the objective of the National Food Security Act is to increase consumption then it needs to be implemented as price effect.     

Trends in and determinants of technical efficiency of software companies in India

This paper attempts to discuss the trends in and determinants of technical efficiency of software companies in India during 1999–2008 by applying input-oriented DEA model. Based upon the PROWESS Database of CMIE, the efficiencies were estimated for the old and new companies and also for Indian, multinational and group companies. The estimations were made for a sample of 72 software companies, under VRS assumption, as dataset manifested large magnitude of differences owing to the presence of big and small companies in the sample. The sales revenue is taken as output variable, and employment, expenditure on computers and electronics equipments, operating expenditure, power, fuel, and water charges as the input variables. The results and analyses demonstrate that the mean overall technical efficiency of the software industry in India during 1999–2008 was low suggesting that software firms, on an average, were wasting 35% of their inputs. It was found that the number of companies operating on most productive scale size has declined during the period under reference. The results also suggest that Indian-owned companies were more efficient than the foreign-owned and group-owned companies. Contrary to the expectations, exports were not found to have exercised significant impact on the efficiency of Indian software industry.     

北京公共教育支出结构与调整策略分析

本文通过对北京1994年以来公共教育支出结构的系统分析,指出北京公共教育支出结构指标与北京经济发展,以及构建和谐社会的客观要求不完全相称,必须及时进行战略调整,确立公共教育支出的优先领域,并制定相应的调整策略。     

R&D in a post centrally-planned economy: The macroeconomic effects in Poland

Half a century of centrally planned policy in the Central and Eastern European countries resulted in outdated technologies, inefficient allocation of resources and low productivity. Following the end of communism there was a fifteen year process of transition which ended in 2004 with eight post-communist countries joining the European Union (EU) of which Poland was the largest. As part of the EU these countries now face the challenge of the common EU strategy Europe 2020, which has set the target of achieving R&D expenditure to GDP ratio (called the R&D intensity) of 3% by 2020 for the Union as a whole in an effort to increase the competitiveness of the region. Poland, like the other post-communist countries, faces a lower target of R&D intensity, set at 1.7%. Nevertheless, the challenge is immense, since the country is still at only half that level and has little experience in developing policies to help achieve it. In this paper we tested two possible policy options to achieve the target: (1) to increase government expenditures on R&D and; (2) to provide tax relief on R&D to businesses. The method applied to assess the options is a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Poland with an explicit link between productivity and R&D stock. The results show that achieving the R&D intensity target via the use of tax relief is 2.5 times more costly to the government budget, but it has a greater impact on the economy in terms of a higher GDP growth. Tax relief proved efficient in the short run while in the long run the government expenditure policy provides better value for money.     

The Making and Melting of the "Iron Rice Bowl" in China 1949 to 1995

The socialist regimes are commonly perceived as insensitive to the economic problems of overmanning and inefficiency arising from the iron rice bowl. This paper argues that the People's Republic of China, as a socialist regime, was not insensitive to these problems. However, the economic rationality of the planned economy was prioritized on macro-planning balances rather than efficiency at the unit level. The national economy was considered as a chessboard and the regime was the player to move labour from one square to another to maximize overall efficiency through strategic positioning. The iron rice bowl was a part of the national industrial manpower policy and it was considered more important than the growth and efficiency of individual enterprises. Even during the economic reform era, the regime guarded against the disruption of overall economic balancing, and measures were taken to protect workers from dismissal.     

Efficiency of spatial price discovery for U.S. rice under different farm policies and economic conditions

Changes in the discovery of U.S. spatial milled rice prices due to the shift from stable economic conditions and government policy of supply control in the 1960s to the more variable economic conditions and market-oriented rice farm policy of the 1970s are investigated. Efficiency of the markets was evaluated in terms of the magnitude and speed of price adjustments over three different time periods. The efficiency of the price discovery process is of concern to policymakers because firms must receive price signals quickly and accurately in order to use their resources optimally.     

Unification of the Urban Minimum Living Standard in China: Using a Consumption Expenditure Percentile Method

ABSTRACT. The Minimum Living Standard Guarantee (MLSG) system in urban China was established in the 1990s. As a national income benefit program, this system has huge regional differences as a result of regional variation in economic development and the methods used to calculate the benefit. This article uses a consumption expenditure percentile method to measure and evaluate the benefit level of the MLSG system. The analysis shows that the consumption expenditure replacement rates in central cities are decreasing, but in prefectural-level cities, by contrast, they are increasing. The regional differences in replacement rates when comparing central cities are considerable and are even larger among cities at a prefecture level. Per-capita consumption expenditure is positively correlated with minimal living standards but negatively correlated with the replacement rate. Such variation in the value and operation of the MLSG system suggests an urgent need to implement a national unified scheme. The article proposes a single approach to calculating Minimum Living Standard benefits using a consumption expenditure replacement rate that would allow for local differences while providing national cohesion.     

Social protection in Europe: A European trade union perspective

Governments and social partners in the European Union (EU) look for ways and means to adapt welfare systems to new needs, to keep expenditure under control, and to find alternative and supplementary financial resources in order to cope with future financial commitments. The EU is actively involved in the search for solutions to these common problems. It becomes more and more evident that only an active economic, budgetary, taxation and social policy mix can provide a solid base for safeguarding social systems. The author presents the most recent figures relating to actual and future social protection expenditure in the EU, disaggregated according to function and showing significant differences between gross and net figures. Attention is also paid to coverage and replacement rates of social benefits and to the availability of social infrastructures. The article then shows the shifts in implicit tax rates on labour in comparison with the rate on other factors. The conclusion outlines a European trade union view on the future of social protection in Europe and suggests possible issues for social benchmarking.     

Higher Education Policy,Enrollment, and Income Inequality*

Objective. The objective of this article is to examine whether public expenditure on higher education has an effect on income inequality by increasing enrollment. Methods. Combining data from the World Bank Development Indicators with data from the World Income Inequality Database version 2, we study the relation between government education expenditure and enrollment rates, as well as the relation between government education expenditure and the change in income inequality during the 1980s and the 1990s. Results. We find that public expenditure on higher education has no positive effect on enrollment. Increased enrollment is mainly explained by higher GDP per capita. Using carefully selected Gini coefficients to ensure comparability over time, we do not find a robust relation between higher education expenditure and lower income inequality, contrary to some previous studies. Conclusions. Government expenditure on higher education has very limited effects on enrollment and inequality. This finding, however, does not imply that there are no social benefits from such subsidies. For example, in countries where high marginal tax rates decrease the economic returns to education, governments may wish to compensate for this through subsidies.     

宏观税负、公共支出结构与个人主观幸福感 ——兼论“政府转型”

本文利用CGSS2006数据库,对政府转型下的宏观税负、民生财政支出和地区收入差距等与个人主观幸福感的关系进行实证检验后发现：（1）宏观税负对居民主观幸福感有显著负影响;（2）总体而言,政府公共支出增进了居民的主观幸福感;（3）从公共支出结构看,地方政府基建投资对于城镇居民的主观幸福感有显著负效应,政府用于科教文卫和社会保障的支出对居民的主观幸福感有显著正效应;（4）科教文卫支出与社会保障支出对市民与外来人员幸福感的影响存在显著差异。     

Social Policy in Harsh Times. Social Security Development in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden during the 1980s and 1990s

For the past two decades, Nordic social policy has been subject to a range of serious challenges, among which economic problems and critiques by neo-classical economists have been most prominent. This article raises the question whether Nordic social policy has significantly changed during this period of challenges. Based on an empirical analysis of social expenditure data and three central social security programs, this article provides evidence that changes in Nordic social policy over this period have, in fact, been relatively minor. Indeed, the four welfare states of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden have shown remarkable resilience considering the harsh challenges that they have been exposed to since the early 1980s.     

Improving educational resilience in the OECD countries: Two convergent paths

While equality of opportunity in education has been studied, the literature mainly focuses on academic performance and its determinants. Thus, to help fill this gap, this paper identifies the factors that contribute to improving equality of opportunity and the policies that should be implemented to achieve it. This work is novel in various ways. First, it defines student resilience in a new way using multilevel models applied to two groups of countries. Second, it analyses the determinants of equality of opportunity in the OECD and makes economic policy recommendations. Using the PISA waves from 2003 to 2018, our results show that uniform economic policies should not be pursued across all OECD countries. While countries in the relatively poor group need economic policies that boost per student expenditure, countries in the richer group should prioritise human capital via teacher salary. In other words, in the richer countries, it is not the level of expenditure that matters but how it is spent. Our results also demonstrate the importance of soft skills for the equality of opportunity of students in all cases. Thus, we recommend designing education policies aimed at developing these skills.     

A computable prototype model of economic development

Economic development models need to advance beyond the two-gap type capital-output models of growth. This paper presents a prototype model of economic development where development is defined more broadly than aggregative output growth in terms of four objectives, namely, income, consumption, distribution, and employment. It is in keeping with the basic needs approach recently developed by the World Bank and other international organizations.The model formulation is based on the dualistic theory of capital formation and structural change. The specification is on the supply side. A novel aspect of the model is that it incorporates the role of education, health, and nutrition in economic development. Further it makes use of cross section data, which is unusual in model building.The model is put to illustrative use to generate dynamic policy multipliers of education and health expenditure. The results do not support the Malthusian fears that increased health expenditure would cause massive unemployment and reduce the standard of living in LDCs.     

Poverty among households in Estonia

Estonia was occupied by the Soviet Union for 50 years. Now she has restored her independence and extensive transformation has started, creating acute social problems. The economic survival of the whole society has become a main goal. The authors examine different poverty lines using the family budget data of 239 households surveyed in May and August 1992 for comparison. The analysis reveals that, whereas the wages and expenditure are low compared with unregulated prices, the share of households living under the poverty line does not reflect the real situation. The poverty among Estonian households reveals a skewed structure of expenditure that indicates exclusion from the consumption-centered way of life. Empirical evidence is given that single-earner households and households with 3 or more children face the danger of falling into deep poverty.     

Concepts of poverty and exclusion in Europe

Using subjective materials, the article examines variation in the concepts of poverty and social exclusion in Europe, the aim being to examine both general and individual opinions. According to our first hypothesis, the higher the welfare expenditure is as a percentage of gross domestic product, the less subjective poverty and social exclusion there is. With the exception of Finland, subjective poverty did correlate inversely with social welfare expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product, thereby supporting our hypothesis. Higher social welfare spending does not seem to affect perceived exclusion as much as perceived poverty. Our second hypothesis was that people in countries with low welfare expenditure are more optimistic that both poverty and social exclusion can be reduced. According to the respondents, exclusion and poverty had increased least in the Mediterranean countries and most in countries with high welfare expenditure. The same trend would appear to continue in the expectations for the future.     

我国国债的挤出效应分析

财政以发行国债方式为扩大政府支出筹集资金,在我国现阶段产生的挤出效应是不明显的,其经济效应是在一定程度上有利于社会总需求的扩张和经济的增长.根据我国现阶段国债对非政府部门投资和消费的挤出效应的特点,笔者进一步分析了其对我国宏观经济调控政策的启示.