Arima models of seasonal variation in U. S. birth and death rates

This paper applies methods of seasonal ARIMA time series analysis to U. S. monthly birth and death rates for January 1950–December 1978. For model selection, the conventional Box-Jenkins (1970, 1976) diagnostic checks are used in conjunction with some suggestions of Nerlove et al. (1979). This results in final models that contain significant second-order autoregressive components, as well as seasonal moving-average components, for both series. In addition, some evidence is found in the birth rate series for weekly periodicities. These findings imply the existence of a seasonal adjustment procedure that improves on the Census X-l1 program currently used by vital statistics agencies.     

Crude death rates in the U.S.S.R.: Comment on Grandstaff's remarks

Abstract My appraisal of death rates in the U.S.S.R. goes beyond the question whether a simple correlation really measures what the critic purports to measure. Normally, the crude death rates depend upon the age structure and the force of mortality. If one persists in assuming that a reasonably high correlation between the official death rates and their independent estimates should be the main criterion of validity, the best technique will be to relate the proportion of persons aged 60 and over to the official death rates recorded for some 109 observations. The force of mortality would be approximately reflected by a given proportion of survivors to the first or second year of age. But in the 1959 Soviet Census the latter data had been concealed within the 0 to 9 age group, possibly for no other reason than to prevent the curious few from tinkering with infant mortality.     

Living and dying in the U.S.A.: Sociodemographic determinants of death among blacks and whites

This paper examines the demographic and social factors associated with differences in length of life by race. The results demonstrate that sociodemographic factors--age, sex, marital status, family size, and income--profoundly affect black and white mortality. Indeed, the racial gap in overall mortality could close completely with increased standards of living and improved lifestyles. Moreover, examining cause-specific mortality while adjusting for social factors shows that compared to whites, blacks have a lower mortality risk from respiratory diseases, accidents, and suicide; the same risk from circulatory diseases and cancer; and higher risks from infectious diseases, homicide, and diabetes. These results underscore the importance of examining social characteristics to understand more clearly the race differences in overall and cause-specific mortality.     

Temporal trends in U. S. multiple cause of death mortality data: 1968 to 1977

An analysis is made of the mortality trends over the period 1968 to 1977 indicated by two types of cause-specific mortality data. The first type of data is “underlying cause” of death data—the data heretofore used in national vital statistics reports on cause-specific mortality. The second type of data is “multiple cause” data which contain a listing of all medical conditions recorded on the death certificate. A comparison of trends in the two types of data yields useful insights on mortality declines over the study period for two reasons. First, these declines were largely due to a reduction in the mortality rates of circulatory diseases. Second, the multiple cause data contain considerably more information than the underlying cause data on the role of circulatory diseases, and many other chronic diseases, in causing death. This additional information is especially useful in examining mortality patterns among the elderly, where the prevalence at death of chronic degenerative diseases is high.     

Correlates of divorce in the U.S.S.R.

The theoretical rationale of this study is that conditions associated with divorce reside outside the family within a broader social system where the family finds itself located. The absence of major differences in divorce law from one place to another within the Soviet Union makes it possible to explore this hypothesis by examining areal differentials in divorce rates. Crude divorce rates and crude marriage rates for 1960 have been published in Vestnik Statistiki for 109 political-administrative areas in the Soviet Union. Several indicators of modernization are available for the same areas from the 1959 U.S.S.R. Census of Population. About 80 per cent of the variation among areas with respect to the crude divorce rate is accounted for by six variables: the crude marriage rate, the percentage of urban population, and the employee-worker ratio in the labor force, each of which is positively associated with the divorce rate; and the proportion of poorly educated women, the ratio of children to adult males, and the mean household-family size, each of which is negatively associated with the divorce rate.     

Multi-Dimensional Deprivation in the U.S.

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of multidimensional deprivation in the U.S. since the Great Recession, from 2008 to 2013. We estimate a Multidimensional Deprivation Index by compiling individual level data on several well-being dimensions from the American Community Survey. Our results indicate that the proportion of the population that is multidimensional deprived averages about 15 percent, which exceeds the prevalence of official income poverty. Lack of education, severe housing burden and lack of health insurance were some of the dimensions in which Americans were most deprived in. Though deprivation increased during the recession, it trended towards a decline between 2010 and 2013. Unlike the official and the supplemental poverty measure which did not show any decline, the deprivation index better reflects the economic recovery since the recession. Overall, the prevalence of deprivation was higher in the southern and the western states and among the Asian and the Hispanic population. Importantly, there was not much overlap between individuals who were income poor and those who were multidimensional deprived. In fact, almost 30 % of individuals with incomes slightly above the poverty threshold experienced multiple deprivations. Our analysis underscores the need to look beyond income based poverty statistics in order to fully realize the impact of the recession on individuals’ well-being.     

Relation of marriage and education to fertility in the U.S.S.R

Abstract One-half of the variation in Soviet fertility as measured by the child-woman ratio is attributable to the proportion of married women in the 20-24 age group. The familar sociological hypothesis of an inverse relation between human fertility and education also is fully substantiated with data for the 36 major ethnic groups in the U.S.S.R. The second and third best predicting variables fall into the two extreme age groups: (a) those 16 to 19 years of age with more than seven years of school completed and (b) those men and women aged 60 and over with the equivalent formal education. Results of this study support the modified hypothesis that complements previously publicized findings. It asserts that variations in fertility attributable to the traditionally religious values can be explained in terms of the age-specific marriage and educational differentials known to have existed in the past and still characteristic of the multi-national society in the Soviet Union.     

Socio-Economic Inequalities in Happiness in China and U.S.

Our paper studies the determinants of happiness in China and U.S. and provides a better understanding of the issue of inequalities in happiness beyond income inequality. Based on the two waves of nation-wide survey data on happiness collected by World Values Survey in 1995 and 2007, Probit and ordinary least square methods are used to estimate effects of various factors on happiness. Our findings show that socio-economic inequalities increase inequalities in happiness in China. The poor are the least happy even though the income effect flats out at the high end. Individuals with below high school education attainment are less happy than those with more education. Agricultural workers are the most unhappy and are becoming even more unhappy over time. However, in U.S., there is no systematic difference in happiness across income and education groups and between agricultural and non-agricultural workers. In both countries health is a major factor contributing to happiness. Our study implies that adequate provision of national health care services should be an effective way to improve social welfare. Besides, since the probability of being happy for agricultural workers is still considerably less after controlling for income in China, policies to improve their welfare should not be limited to enhancing current income.     

The status of women in the rural U.S.S.R.

Degree of sex equality in rural areas of the U.S.S.R. is assessed with reference to a multi-variable model which specifies demographic, technological, social, and ideological factors associated with sex stratification. Such analysis reveals that the emphasis in the U.S.S.R. on women's participation in production as the key to sex equality ignores other dimensions of sex stratification which are not changed using this tactic. In particular, rural traditions of higher birth rates, more authoritarian families, greater religious emphasis, and male scorn for women have kept the status of rural women even lower than that of their urban counterparts. Additionally, the agrarian techno-economic base and lack of institutional supports for childcare and housework help perpetuate sex stratification. Increasing sex differentiation is probably in store for the Soviet Union, because official pronatalist policies are likely to be facilitated by expanding the service sector, which will further increase the division of labor in the market.     

U.S. women at work

Women made up 43% of the U.S. labor force in 1980, up from 29% in 1950, and 52% of all women 16 and over were working or looking for work compared to 34% in 1950. The surge in women's employment is linked to more delayed marriage, divorce, and separation, women's increased education, lower fertility, rapid growth in clerical and service jobs, inflation, and changing attitudes toward "woman's place." Employment has risen fastest among married women, especially married mothers of children under 6, 45% of whom are now in the labor force. Some 44% of employed women now work fulltime the year round, but still average only $6 for every $10 earned by men working that amount. This is partly because most women remain segregated in low paying "women's jobs" with few chances for advancement. Among fulltime workers, women college graduates earn less than male high school dropouts. Working wives were still spending 6 times more time on housework than married men in 1975 and working mothers of preschool children are also hampered by a severe lack of daycare facilities. Children of working women, however, appear to develop normally. Equal employment opportunity and affirmative action measures have improved the climate for working women but not as much as for minorities. The federal income tax and social security systems still discriminate against 2 income families. Woman's position in the U.S. labor force should eventually improve with the inroads women are making in some male-dominated occupations and gains in job experience and seniority among younger women who now tend to stay in the labor force through the years of childbearing and early childrearing, unlike women in the 1950s and 1960s.     

Environmental Quality in the U.S. States

This analysis of data on environmental quality differentials in the U.S. states shows, first, that the many physical measures of the environment in the U. S. states form two coherent factors: pollution (which became the criterion variable for the study) and waste management. Likewise, budget allocations for the environment reduce to 'contemporary' and 'traditional' expenditures. The former type, along with per capita miles driven and the proportion of the population in metropolitan centers, were used as control variables in tests of three explanatory models: 'industrial capitalism', 'sectoral political economy' and 'sociological structuralism.' No one of these explanations was completely supported by the regression analyses. Therefore, a factor analysis of 16 measures of structure and environmental policy characteristics was run that generated three types of state structure: industrial, high-change and commercial. The first and third types proved to be strong predictors, positive and negative respectively, of pollution level. The major implication of these findings is that social structure, policy and pollution levels are inextricably intertwined.     

The fecundability of U.S. women

Abstract In this note I shall define fecundability as the probability that a non-pregnant woman will achieve a recognizable pregnancy during a month of exposure to risk.     

The fecundability of U.S. women

In this note I shall define fecundability as the probability that a non-pregnant woman will achieve a recognizable pregnancy during a month of exposure to risk.     

Several recent Supreme Court decisions and their implications for political redistricting in Voting Rights Act context

This paper focuses on four recent United States Supreme Court decisions which have profound implications for political redistricting. These cases are Holder v. Hall, Johnson v. De Grandy, Shaw v. Reno and Miller v. Johnson. Each of these cases place limits on the scope of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act when conducting a political redistricting or fashioning a remedy for a Section 2 violation. These cases have resolved a number of important issues in redistricting while creating yet new issues to be resolved. Although demographers are not in the business of practicing law, they must clearly understand the legal requirements and often subtle nuances imposed by the case law. The paper concludes that the combined force of these cases does not yet spell the end of race conscious redistricting and therefore, effectively repeal the Voting Rights Act but does require that more weight be given to traditional redistricting criteria when designing districts that will withstand legal challenges.     

U.S. births and limit cycle Models

Lee's (1974) formal demographic feedback models summarize the implications for births and age-structure of neo-Malthusian theories of baby booms such as those of Easterlin. For some parameter values, such models imply sustained cycles, so-called "limit cycles", in births. Frauenthal and Swick recently reestimated a continuous-age version of Lee's basic cohort model with U.S. series and, contrary to Lee's original findings, concluded that "limit cycles oscillations have been occurring in U.S. births." This article disputes their conclusion, ascribing it to an inconsistency in detrending procedures. Furthermore, it corrects Lee's original conclusion by showing that his alternative period labor-force feedback model, estimated from U.S. series, leads to cycles of implausibly long period. This article thus reopens the question of whether any feedback model could account for the observed cycles in U.S. births.     

Religious involvement and U.S. adult mortality

We use recently released, nationally representative data from the National Health Interview Survey-Multiple Cause of Death linked file to model the association of religious attendance and sociodemographic, health, and behavioral correlates with overall and cause-specific mortality. Religious attendance is associated with U.S. adult mortality in a graded fashion: People who never attend exhibit 1.87 times the risk of death in the follow-up period compared with people who attend more than once a week. This translates into a seven-year difference in life expectancy at age 20 between those who never attend and those who attend more than once a week. Health selectivity is responsible for a portion of the religious attendance effect: People who do not attend church or religious services are also more likely to be unhealthy and, consequently, to die. However, religious attendance also works through increased social ties and behavioral factors to decrease the risks of death. And although the magnitude of the association between religious attendance and mortality varies by cause of death, the direction of the association is consistent across causes.     

Social Capital and Casino Gambling in U.S. Communities

This paper empirically analyzes the impact that the spread of casino gambling has on social capital in communities throughout the United States. Social capital is a networking process that translates into an individual’s effectiveness in the community and workplace, and binds communities together. Several recent studies have also demonstrated a link between higher levels of social capital and quality of life. In this study, social capital is measured based on six dimensions: trust, civic, volunteerism, group participation, giving, and meeting obligations of family and friends. Using data from the DDB Needham database for the years 1978, 1988, and 1998, regression analysis is conducted on over 300 Metropolitan Statistical Areas throughout the United States to determine the impact that the spread of casino gambling has on social capital. The results of the analysis indicate that the presence of casino gambling significantly reduces social capital when a casino is located within 15 miles of a community, suggesting that a casino’s location influences a community’s quality of life and should be a consideration when deciding on the merits of gambling legalization.     

Toward a U.S. population policy

The gratifying media results from a concerted national and local publicity effort when Zero Population Growth (ZPG) released its recommendations for a national population policy are reported. Support was received from 10 members of Congress and local leaders. 8 ZPG chapters and the Washington office held press conferences casting the meaning of increased population growth in regional terms. In Cincinnati, ZPG focused on the shortage of landfill space, in San Francisco the water shortage, and in Massachusetts the rapid urbanization of prime farmland. The Congressmen emphasized that the U.S. must have a comprehensive population policy before it can tell other countries they must. Among the ZPG policies recommended are: zero population growth by 2008, increased funding for family planning services and education, special programs for teenagers, greater public education on population dynamics, increased funding for contraceptive research, enforcement of existing immigration laws, comprehensive review of immigration policy, equal rights for women, and more equitable income tax policy.