Communique on the one-in-one thousand sample survey of birthrate of China's population

To analyze the history of the marriage and birth of Chinese women and to inspect the results of family planning work, to do well the jobs of demographic forecasting and formulating demographic plans, to provide a reliable basis for strengthening the scientific management of family planning work, the state Family Planning Commission organized and carried out a nationwide 1-person-in-1-thousand survey of birthrates in 28 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions. The following are survey results: 1) 24.77% of the total survey population were women between 15 and 49 years of age; 2) among the women of childbearing age, 31.46% were unmarried, 64.53% were in 1st marriages, 2.89% were remarried; .19% were divorced but not remarried, and .94% were widows; 3) the average age of first marriage was 18.4 in the 1940s, 19 in the 1950s, 19.8 in the 1960s, 21.6 in the 1970s, and 23 in the late 1970s; and 4) the average number of births was 5.44 in the 1940s, 5.87 in the 1950s, 5.8 in the 1960s, and 4.01 in the 1970s. The survey reveals that education level and occupation have a strong relation to childbearing among Chinese women. The survey found that China and 170 million married childbearing aged women and that 118 million or 69.46% used birth control measures. 33 million couples had 1 child only, among them 42.3% has officially committed themselves to maintaining a 1 child family. The data reveal that major achievements in family planning work have been obtained, but the mission ahead is still arduous.     

Socio-economic and cultural differentials in contraceptive usage among Ghanaian women

Data from the Ghana Fertility Survey of 2001 married women in 1979-1980 were subjected to logistic regression to determine the factors influencing contraceptive use. In this Ghanaian sample only 22 women and no men were sterilized, 11% used an efficient contraceptive method and 8% were using an inefficient method. The most prevalent methods were abstinence by 6% and pill by 5%. The variables analyzed were birth cohort, age at 1st marriage, education, occupation, religion, ethnicity, rural/urban residence, northern/southern residence and number of children desired number of living children. All these factors were dichotomized, e.g., cohort: born before or after 1950. Factors positively significant for contraceptive use were younger women (20% more likely), married at age 20 or older (82% more), education (150% for any method, 67% for an efficient method), professional occupations, protestants, urban residence, southern residence, desire fewer children. Factors negatively associated with contraception were agricultural work (50% as likely), non-Christian religion, both traditional and Moslems (75%), desiring more children and living in the north. Unexpectedly, living in the northern undeveloped region was strongly linked with use of an efficient contraceptive. A factor without significant effect was ethnicity, Akan or non-Akan. These results were discussed with a general review of the literature on determinants of contraceptive use.     

What makes you stronger: age and cohort differences in personal growth after cancer

Using two waves of the National Survey of Midlife Development in the United States, I compare changes in personal growth over a 10 year period among cancer survivors and individuals without cancer. Moreover, I examine joint effects of age and cohort on personal growth after a cancer diagnosis. The theoretical framework of this study integrates impairment, resilience, and thriving perspectives. Findings reveal that, although personal growth declines with age for all individuals regardless of cohort and cancer status, cancer slows the decline in personal growth with age in 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s birth cohorts, yet accelerates the age-related decline in the 1920s cohort. I argue that a sociological perspective can enhance our understanding of the interplay of developmental and sociocultural influences on psychological adjustment to cancer. Seemingly idiosyncratic psychological reactions to cancer partly reflect macrolevel processes represented by cohort differences.     

Determinants of marital fertility in Pakistan: the impact of education,work and family planning

The relative impact of the indirect and direct determinants of fertility of Pakistani women was assessed using the 1990/91 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS). A total of 7926 households was selected and 5713 women of reproductive age (15-49 years old) who had at least one birth were interviewed. Several social, economic, and demographic variables were employed to assess the number of children ever born. Ordinary least squares regression was used to estimate four multivariate models of children ever born. The direct and indirect determinants and the control variable of current age were simultaneously entered for each of four models that differed by age: 15-49, 15-24, 25-34, and 35-49 years. There was a 0.5 child difference between children ever born (4.64) and living children (4.11) for the 15-49 age group. This indicates infant and child mortality: 26% of the women experienced at least one child death before the age of 2 years. The oldest group had the lowest percentage ever attending school: 19% vs. 25% and 26% (15-24 and 25-34 age groups, respectively). Education was nonsignificant for the youngest and middle-aged cohorts, but it was negative and significant for the older cohorts. For employment, only the 25-34 age group was negative and significant. Age at marriage and breast feeding were strong and negative for all models. Current use of family planning was positive and significant for the oldest age group and the total. The younger cohorts did not have a negative and significant relationship between education and fertility; and the 15-24 age group living in a major city had significantly higher fertility than their town and village counterparts. The variables that showed differential impact were education, employment, residence, and contraceptive use. Education did not significantly lower fertility for the younger groups, but it did for the older group. Employment significantly lowered fertility for the 25-34 age group. Contraceptive prevalence steadily increased from 7% in the 15-19 age group to nearly 21% in the 35-39 age group.     

Natural fertility in the Philippines

The hypothesis that modernization trends in the Philippines led to an increase in fecundity and natural fertility between 1953-1972 was tested, using data from the 1973 National Demographic Survey. More specifically, it was hypothesized that increases in education, income levels, urbanization, female labor force participation, and other factors exerted a positive influence on the population's health and nutritional status and increased the risk of pregnancy by diminishing the strength of sexual taboos and by decreasing the incidence of breastfeeding. These changes, in turn, had a positive impact on natural fertility. Natural fertility was defined as marital fertility in the absence of specific efforts to control fertility. The use of natural fertility instead of fecundity allowed for the influence of behavioral patterns, such as breastfeeding and sexual taboos, on fertility. Period analysis of age specific marital fertility rates for each 5 year period between 1953-72 and cohort analysis of age specific marital fertility rates for the birth cohorts, aged 55-59, 50-54, 45-49, 40-44, and 35-39 in 1973 were undertaken. The effect of fertility control was determined by using an index derived from an equation provided by Coale and Trussell. Findings of both the period and cohort analysis supported the hypothesis. Period analysis revealed that natural fertility increased between 1953-57 and 1969-72 by 10% and that the greatest increase occurred during the 1950s when Philippine society experienced major modernization changes. The increases in natural fertility were accompanied by corresponding increases in fertility regulation in each time period. These trends tended to cancel each other out and resulted in a relatively stable total marital fertility rate throughout the time period. Cohort analysis revealed that only the total marital fertility rate of the youngest cohort was influenced by fertility regulation. The level of natural fertility for all cohorts as a group increased by about 7.5% between 1953-72. The major increase occurred during the post war years. All of these occurred during the time period when the Philippines underwent major socioeconomic changes. Data on changes in socioeconomic indicators during the time period under observation were presented. For example, between 1948-70, the literacy rate increased from 62.8%-84.6% for males and from 56.9%-82.2% for females. The infant mortality rate declined from 125.5-67.3 between 1948-70, and breastfeeding declined from 64.2%-26.5% between 1958-74. The increase in the natural fertility level tapered off during the last few years, and in the future the impact of fertility control on the fertility rate should become stronger.     

The Decoupling of Marriage and Parenthood? Trends in the Timing of Marital First Births, 1945–2002

Family formation changed dramatically over the 20th century in the United States. The impact of these changes on childbearing has primarily been studied in terms of nonmarital fertility. However, changes in family formation behavior also have implications for fertility within marriage. The authors used data from 10 fertility surveys to describe changes in the timing of marital childbearing from the 1940s through the 21st century for non‐Hispanic White and non‐Hispanic Black women. Based on harmonized data from the Integrated Fertility Survey Series, the results suggest increasing divergence in fertility timing for White women. A growing proportion of marriages begin with a premarital conception; at the same time, an increasing proportion of White women are postponing fertility within marriage. For Black women, marital fertility is increasingly postponed beyond the early years of marriage. Evaluating the sequencing of marriage and parenthood over time is critical to understanding the changing meaning of marriage.     

An investigation on rural birthrates in Hubei Province

In 1981, the Population Research Section of the Department of Economics of Wuhan University joined forces with personnel sent by family planning institutions of communes, countries, and prefectures of concern in Hubei Province to form a joint investigation group and went down for 4 months to conduct a representative survey of the rural birthrate in 15 production brigades. This paper states the results of the investigation. The marriage rate was 18.14/1000 when calculated on the basis of the 1980 average population. Since the new marriage law provides that women can get married when they reach the age of 20, at present the number of rural women applying for marriage certificates beginning at age 20 has been increasing day by day. 90% of the married women had a 1st birth within 4 years of marriage; the 2nd year of marriage is the peak period of reproduction during which 1/2 of the married women gave birth. Other results show that 1) on the basis of an average interval of 2 years between 1st marriage and 1st birth, the average interval between births from the 2nd through the 5th is about 3 years each; 2) the birthrate by age groups is 2.99395; 3) the gross reproduction rate was as high as 2.5 before Liberation and the net reproduction rate reached 1.7; and 4) among the 728 persons investigated, those who wished to have 1 child accounted for only 5% of the total, 2 children 51%, 3 children 28%, and 4 children 15%. The peasants' ideology of having many births is intricate; it is the comprehensive reflection of socioeconomic, ideological, and traditional factors. To guide the peasants' birth-related thinking onto a track in line with the family planning policy of the state calls for painstaking work and further improvement of the birth control policy.     

Associations of Childhood Religious Attendance,Family Structure,and Nonmarital Fertility Across Cohorts

This article considers associations among childhood family structure, childhood religious service attendance, and the probability of having a nonmarital first birth before age 30 for non‐Hispanic White women born 1944 to 1964 using data from the 1988 and 1995 waves of the National Survey of Family Growth (N = 5,995). We found that attending religious services weekly during childhood and growing up in a 2‐biological‐parent family were associated with lower odds of having had a nonmarital first birth. These associations were quite stable across cohorts, although religious attendance was less associated with nonmarital fertility for the youngest cohort. We estimate that changes in these childhood experiences account for 22% of the increase in nonmarital first births across these cohorts.     

How do sex ratios in China influence marriage decisions and intra-household resource allocation?

This article examines how imbalanced sex ratios influence marriage decisions and household bargaining. Using data from the 1982 Chinese census, the traditional “availability ratio” is modified to reflect the degree to which men tend to marry women from different cohorts. This ratio reflects the average tendency of men to prefer women who are close in age to women who are several years younger than them by weighting cohort sizes using the proportion of people in the population who marry someone born in a different cohort. Given that men generally marry younger women, this ratio varies independently of the size of one’s own birth cohort. Yet, the ratio fluctuates considerably across individuals, as the sizes of birth cohorts in China vary across time and regions. This enables us to examine how variability in such ratios may influence marriage decisions and household bargaining. The findings suggest that women exercise greater bargaining power once married. Results indicate that as women become scarcer in the marriage market, they have healthier sons. Men also delay marriage, and consume less tobacco and alcohol. This paper also highlights how sensitive findings may be to using this modified weighted availability ratio rather than a traditional unweighted availability ratio.     

Sibship size and educational attainment in peninsular Malaysia: do policies matter?

This study examines the effects of sibship size on secondary school attainment in Malaysia. Data were obtained from the 1989 Malaysian Second Family Life Survey among a sample of individuals aged 19-38 years in 1989 who were born during 1938-69. The sample included 1749 Malays, 1071 Chinese, and 523 Indians. Subsamples divided persons into those born during the period 1950-59 and those born during 1960-69. 98% of the sample had a primary education. Almost 66% had attained a secondary school education: 23% of Malays, 34% of Chinese, and 30% of Indians. 97% had at least one sibling. The percentage of non-Malays with a secondary school education (SSE) decreased with an increase in sibship size. Sibship size was unrelated to SSE among Malays. It is pointed out that the preferential policies were probably a stronger impetus for secondary attainment among Malays than sibship size. Finer analysis by cohort revealed that only in the cohort born during 1950-59 did sibship size have no significant effect on SSE. Sibship size had a significantly negative impact among children born during 1960-69 and the impact was greater for Malays than non-Malays. The magnitude of the effect for Malays was twice as large in the 1960-69 cohort as in the 1950-59 cohort, while the magnitude of the impact of sibship size for non-Malays was the same for both birth cohorts. Average sibship size for non-Malays declined sharply over time, while it remained stable for Malays. Logistic analysis revealed few differences between ethnic groups in the predicted probabilities for the 1950-59 cohort when individual and family factors were accounted for. Findings suggest that non-Malays' adjustment by decreasing their fertility or changing family resource allocations could not entirely compensate for increases in the cost of education or reductions in the return to education. The benefit was the closing of the gap between Malays and non-Malays with regard to children's likelihood of SSE.     

The Prevalence and Correlates of Multipartnered Fertility Among Urban U.S. Parents

Recent trends in marriage and fertility have increased the number of adults having children by more than 1 partner, a phenomenon that we refer to as multipartnered fertility. This article uses data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study to examine the prevalence and correlates of multipartnered fertility among urban parents of a recent birth cohort (N = 4,300). We find that unmarried parents are much more likely to have had a child by a previous partner than married parents. Also, race/ethnicity is strongly associated with multipartnered fertility, as is mothers’ young age at first birth, and fathers’ history of incarceration. To the extent that childrearing across households diminishes parental resources, multipartnered fertility has important consequences for children’s well‐being.     

Black Minority Racial Status and Fertility in the United States, 1970

Abstract

Reversal in the trend toward convergence of black and white fertility rates in the United States between 1940 and 1970 has given rise to the theory of independent effect of minority racial status. The 1970 Public Use Sample is used in this study to extract data on a 1/1000 sample of all black and white women (excluding Spanish Americans) ages 15 to 59 in order to analyze relationships between fertility and other census variables. The results tend to support the theory of independent effect of minority racial status on fertility. The relationship is more pronounced for women under 35 than for women 40 and over. Distinctive patterns emerge by race and age cohorts.     

Temporal dimensions of the fertility transition: an age-period-cohort analysis of frontier fertility

"This paper evaluates age, period, and cohort effects on marital fertility during onset of the Utah fertility transition (1880-1900). Computerized genealogies are used to derive age-period-cohort fertility rates for 49,842 once-married couples. Age, period and cohort effects on marital fertility are then estimated using Johnson's (1985) relational model. Declining marital fertility in Utah is shown to be explained by both lower fertility levels across periods and increasing age-specific limitation across cohorts. Direct cohort effects on fertility are insignificant. These results are consistent with prior research, and the view that fertility levels were adaptive (in part through birth spacing across ages) to immediate contexts of childbearing while age-specific fertility truncation increased across cohorts (in part through the more general diffusion of contraceptive innovations)."     

World population trends in 1960-70

The rapid rise in world population for the 4 periods 1950-1955, 1955 -1960, 1960-1965, and 1965-1970 is mainly due to a decline in the crude death rate from 24/1000 in 1950-1955 to 16.1/1000 in 1965-1970. 1950 was a turning-point in mortality rates because for the first time public health measures became widely available in less developed regions. These less developed regions contained 63.4% of the world population in 1930, 65.5% in 1950, and 70.0% in 1970. World population increased by 22% in 1960-1970, compared to 20% in 1950-1960, which was twice as much as the 20% registered for the 20 years 1930-1950. Developed regions contributed a 14% increase between 1950-1960 and 12% between 1960-1970; in less developed regions the increases were 23% and 27% respectively. Demographic conferences have begun to neglect mortality, but this is still a vital part of total population growth. Evidence is that the mortality decline in less developed countries is beginning to level off so that previous population projections may not be reached. What decline has been seen in crude birth rates in less developed countries is largely attributable to declines in East Asia, notably in the People's Republic of China, Republic of Korea, and other Chinese or Chinese culture-related populations, as well as some of the smaller Latin American countries and some small islands off Africa. Such demographic giants as India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and sub-Saharan Africa have shown little change. In areas with high fertility there are more mothers under age 20 and more births to women over age 35 while in low-fertility areas births are concentrated in the 20-35 year groups. An interesting example is Japan which has 50% of its births to mothers 25-29 years of age. Less developed countries have a larger proportion o f the population under age 14 while developed countries which have had lower fertility for a number of years have larger numbers in the older age groups. In less developed areas the greatest burdens are associated with child-rearing while welfare for the aged is the great concern in the more developed areas of the world. The great trend toward urbanization in all parts of the world means that the population problems commanding greatest attention are those associated with large and fast-growing cities.     

The relationship between migration and fertility in an historical context: the case of Morocco in the 1960s

The relationship between migration and fertility was explored on the basis of data collected in a 1966 survey conducted in the 9 largest cities of Morocco. Existing contradictory findings suggest the need to specify and analyze the conditions under which fertility differentials by migration status are observed. The 2 theoretically most interesting conditions were considered: the historical context of migration; and the type of migration. A stratified area probability sample was selected with different sampling fractions within each city and city-strata. In each sampled household, 1 married woman under age 50 and 1 50 years and over, as well as single women ranging in age from 15-24, were selected at random and interviewed by female interviewers. The present analysis was limited to data for ever married women under age 50. The following variables were used as controls in the analysis of the relationship between migration status and fertility: the intermediate variable of age at marriage; measures of socioeconomic status; labor force participation of women; and measures of exposure to the modernizing influence of the city. If the 2 conditions of historical context and migration typology had been ignored in the analysis of data for Morocco's cities in 1966, meaningful fertility differentials would not have been evident. It was only after migration typology and historical context were considered that a more noticeable pattern of differential fertility emerged. Migrants of rural or urban origin who moved to the largest cities of Morocco after independence in 1956 had the lowest fertility of any group. The highest fertility was observed for women who moved to these cities before 1956. The fertility of urban natives and of urban migrants who moved before 1956 was between the 2 extreme levels. Controlling for the effects of age at marriage and various socioeconomic factors reduced the fertility differentials but failed to change their pattern. It was hypothesized that the lower fertility of recent migrants may be explained by social mobility.     

Premarital Cohabitation and Direct Marriage in the United States: 1956–2015

Cohabitation rates and durations increased rapidly beginning in the late 1960s, and by 2011–2015, 70% of first marriages among women under age 36 began in premarital cohabitation lasting an average of 32?months before marriage. The National Survey of Families and Households (n?=?3,594) and the National Survey of Family Growth (n?=?9,420) are analyzed to estimate selection into direct marriage and premarital cohabitation from 1956–2015, and long- and short-term premarital cohabitations from 1971–2015. Early premarital cohabitors were more likely to be women of color and had the same education as direct marriers. Later cohorts of premarital cohabitors were less educated, from lower class backgrounds, more likely to have experienced a parental divorce/separation, less religious, and long-term premarital cohabitations were more common among women of color.     

Trends and incidence of childlessness by race: indicators of black progress over three decades

Patterns in childlessness rates for blacks and whites in the U.S. from 1950-1972 were examined using 1940, 1950, and 1960 census data and data from Current Population Reports for 1969 and 1972. Among ever married women, aged 15-49, the proportion of childless black women declined from 29.1%-13.6% from 1940-1972, while the porportion of childless white women declined from 22.9%-14.3% from 1940-1969 and then increased slightly to 15.6% in 1972. The decline in childlessness observed for both blacks and whites during this period was attributable, at least in part, to improved medical care. When age specific rates were examined 2 diverse patterns emerged. For females, aged 15-24, childlessness rates for blacks were lower than for whites throughout 1940-1972, and the differences between blacks and whites increased over time. However, for females, aged 30-39, childlessness rates were higher for blacks than for whites throughout 1940-1972, and the gap between white and black rates decreased over time. In general the data demonstrated a convergence in childlessness patterns for blacks and whites. Childlessness rates were viewed as an indication of social integration. Childlessness is not a norm in American society. The general decline in childless rates among blacks and especially among blacks over 30 years of age indicated that the wider society was serving as a reference group for blacks. Among blacks under 25 years convergence was less apparent and indicated that younger black women were less integrated into the larger society than older black women. On the basis of recent trends it was predicted that convergence between black and white childlessness patterns would continue; however, in view of the upturn in the childlessness rate observed for whites since 1969, it was expected that the childlessness rates for both blacks and whites would increase somewhat in the coming years.     

Determinants of individual fertility and contraceptive use: a review and synthesis of the literature

This discussion, which reviews the fertility determinants literature from a sociopsychological or individual perspective, summarizes literature addressing the determinants of individual fertility, i.e., an individual's decision to use or not use an effective contraceptive method. Complete or definite answers about fertility determinants do not exist, but enough is known to provide an overview. From the 259 articles, monographs, and books examined and classified, 6 main classes of determinants were formed and analyzed: demographic; sociopsychological; experiential or behavioral; informational, including knowledge about reproduction and birth control; husband and wife interaction; and environmental. Gaps in the existing literature about these determinants are identified and a sociopsychological model integrating existing knowledge is proposed. In general, the following groups of individuals have relatively high fertility and/or relatively low or ineffective contraceptive use: low socioeconomic status, adolescents and people aged 40 and older, Catholics and highly religious, rural, many siblings, unemployed women or working women who do not attach great importance to their careers; and ethnic minorities. Sociopsychological determinants of fertility and contraceptive use have been classified into 2 groups: personality traits and values and attitudes. In general, the evidence linking values and attitudes to fertility-related behavior is stronger than personality traits, but some promising work in the personality area is being conducted. In general an early age at 1st marriage related to higher fertility, and duration of marriage positively associated with fertility as is a younger age at 1st birth. In general, there is a positive correlation between contraceptive knowledge and contraceptive behavior. Certain aspects of the husband/wife relationship, including the allocation of roles and responsibilities between husband and wife and the scope and frequency of their communication--are related to their fertility and contraceptive use. The extent to which family planning programs contribute to fertility decline, over and above the effects due to modernization and development, remains unanswered empirically. The following gaps in the literature were observed: the need for more research on the role of the male partner in determining fertility and contraceptive use, the experiential or behavioral determinants of fertility and contraceptive use, employment history, environmental aspects, and integration of the area into theoretical framework(s) capable of empirical verification.     

Families in the future: the pursuit of personal autonomy

There have been substantial changes in the demography of the family since the early 1970s in Australia. Age at 1st marriage has risen substantially. In 1986, 6.1% of heterosexual couples in Australia were living together. In 1 in 3 marriages today, 1 or both partners have been married before. The percentage of marriages ending in divorce based on annual data increased from 14% in 1971 to 35% in 1986. The birth rate has declined substantially since 1971. In 1986,, 77% of all households were family households, 4% were group households, and 19% were 1-person households. Over 1 in 3 Australian children being born today will spend some time in a 1-parent family before they reach majority. The important measure, however, may not be family structure but the extent of support, both economic and emotional, that the child receives from his or her parents. Similar arguments may be applied to the aged. A 1982 survey showed that among persons aged 15-64 years who had a parent living elsewhere, over 50% had contact with that parent at least once a week. The same survey showed that among aged people requiring help, they were 5 times more likely to receive that help from a family member than from a government agency or from a voluntary agency. A focus on how families function draws attention to the changes in the lives of married women. Labor force participation rates for married women have been steadily increasing for over 50 years. Even in couple families with a child under 5 years old, 40% of the women were in the labor force in 1986. The family changes described above can all be interpreted in terms of the movement to personal autonomy which has characterized the last 20 years. This is especially the case with the increase in age at marriage, the decline of teenage pregnancy, and the rise in the divorce rate. The trend for young couples to live together rather than marry can be seen as an experiment in the pursuit of personal autonomy. The author hypothesizes that people choosing to live together before marriage are seeking personal autonomy, and it is the conflict between personal autonomy and family life that leads ultimately to their higher break-up rates.