Economic and Institutional Context and Second Births in Seven European Countries

The extent to which mothers progress to a second child varies greatly between European countries. Although both institutional and economic context are believed to be partly responsible for these differences, available research on economic conditions and fertility mostly focuses on first births and studies on family policy and fertility have hitherto insufficiently addressed population heterogeneity. Combining longitudinal microdata from the Harmonized Histories with contextual data on labour market uncertainty and family policy, this paper uses discrete-time hazard models to analyse the impact of economic and institutional context on second birth hazards of 22,298 women in 7 European countries between 1970 and 2002. Particular attention is paid to variation in the contextual effects by level of education. We find that aggregate-level unemployment and temporary employment reduce second birth hazards, particularly for low- and medium-level educated women. Family policies are positively related to second birth hazards. Whereas family allowances stimulate second births particularly among low educated mothers, the positive effect of childcare is invariant by level of education.     

俄罗斯低生育率的成因及“母亲资本法”的成效评价

近年来俄罗斯人口数量的急剧减少与人口低生育率有直接联系,经济因素、社会生育观、宗教以及价值观差异、个人家庭状况都影响出生率动态,"母亲资本法"的出台对人口出生率的促进作用是毋庸置疑的,但这些社会家庭政策同时也存在迄待完善的地方。     

The Role of Spousal Income in the Wife’s Happiness

Few studies have examined spousal income in the context of happiness. This paper analyzes the Indonesia family life survey and finds a positive relationship between the husband’s income and his wife’s happiness. Specifically, a 100 % increase in the husband’s income is related to a 0.72 % point increase in his wife expressing very happy, which is about 11 % of the proportion expressing that response. Surprisingly, among the husband’s characteristics, only his income (along with health) is statistically significantly related to his wife’s happiness. This positive relationship is particularly strong among old, educated, and poor (in absolute and relative terms) urban residents.     

Husbands' and wives' relative influence on fertility decisions and outcomes

This research was supported by NICHD Center for Population Research Contract No. HD52807 and Research Scientist Development Award No. AA00002 from NIAAA to the author. The important contributions of Philip Bardsley to this research and to earlier drafts of this paper are gratefully acknowledged. Thanks are also due to Tom Day and Linda Moody Chilingar for their data analytic and statistical skills and to Cathey Heron for her assistance throughout the course of this project.When couples were in conflict about short-term fertility, wives had the same or somewhat greater influence over actual outcomes than did husbands, especially when the wife was the one who did not desire a child. Antecedent wife demographic, attitudinal and couple interactional variables had more influence on short-term fertility decisions made than did antecedent husband variables. However, inclusion of husband data as well as wife data increased discrimination between those deciding to have or not have a child.     

The effects of the age and structure of population on family change]

The age structure of a population is one basic factor of population research. It is not only affected by birth, death, immigration, and marriage, but it also reflected in changes of family size. The article analyzed it from two aspects: (1) the age structure of population acts on the size and structure of the family. The younger the age structure, the larger the family size. Otherwise, it is the opposite. According to the 1982 census, 35.4% of the population was 0-14 years in rural areas, and average family size was 4.6; but in urban areas 26.0% of the population was 0-14 years and family size was 3.9. The family was characterized as a nuclear family as industrialization in economic development increased and the population aged. In the 1982 census, 64.7% were nuclear family and 6% were aging population in China. Three- generation families (or more) have decreased dramatically. The change of family size and structure is affected by change of internal family age structure. The younger population (0-14 years) is dependent and 90% live with their parents. The adult population (15-59) years are more affected by marriage, birth and social economic action. Families are established in this age period and give much more effect to fertility. The aging population (over 60) years is facing changes. They appear to be a "Defect" family because the wife or husband has passed away. They change from independent to dependent. 78.3% population over 60 years were dependent on children or social welfare, only 21.7% were independent according to the survey in Beijing Changping County.     

Spousal agreement on the value of children and fertility behavior

The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between the level of spousal agreement on the value of children and fertility behavior. Interviews with 441 once married couples from a probability sample in Robeson County, North Carolina, provide the data for testing the hypothesized relationships. The results indicate that the level of spousal agreement on the value of children is significantly related to live births, family size expectations and fertility planning. The introduction of duration of marriage and wife's education as controls did not significantly alter these relationships. An important implication of the findings is the need for research on the family formation process to focus on both the husband and wife.Paper No. 11446 of the Journal Series of the North Carolina Agricultural Research Service, Raleigh, North Carolina. The research for this study was initially supported by a grant from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (1 ROLH005321-02).     

厦门市流动人口的居住方式及其影响因素分析

本文是对流动人口居住方式的实证研究 ,利用的是 2 0 0 3年厦门市流动人口婚姻家庭调查的数据资料。文章主要描述了厦门市流动家庭中夫妻的居住方式、与孩子的居住方式以及与双方父母的居住方式。尤其对影响流动人口夫妻居住方式的因素进行了深入探析 ,并建立了相应的Logistic回归分析模型。最后笔者给出了自己的研究结论和些许建议。     

Controlling population growth in Sri Lanka: perceptions,policies and strategies

Sri Lanka has been an oft-cited example in the demographic literature of developing countries over the past 4 decades. Despite its low level of per capita income, Sri Lanka has managed to achieve the lowest level of fertility in South Asia. Sri Lanka's population policies, especially with regard to fertility, have been rated as strong by some writers. The evolution of policies on population growth in Sri Lanka is described in the following sections: the problem of population growth, strategies for controlling population growth, the period of indirect government participation from 1948 to 1965, policy change during 1965-77, 1977 as the beginning of a new era of increasing government commitment to domestic population polices, and strategy changes from 1989 onwards. During this current, most recent, phase of population policy in Sri Lanka, the government has focused upon satisfying the demand for various family planning methods, demand which has been created by a well-promoted fertility control program during the preceding phases of policy implementation. Greater emphasis is simultaneously being given to improving reproductive health.     

Do husbands and wives agree? Fertility attitudes and later behavior

Analysis of the extent to which husbands and wives agree in their attitudes toward a number of key issues that may affect fertility behavior shows that although aggregate views of men and women are remarkably similar, marital couples are frequently in disagreement, particularly if measures discounting for chance agreement of responses are employed. In other words, we cannot accept either the husband or the wife as a surrogate respondent. These conclusions are based on data from cross-sectional surveys in a developing society, Taiwan, of 2000 couples in which the wife was of childbearing age. The impact on fertility of such marital disagreement varies with the attitude in question. Followup birth data over a four-year period indicate that, when there is disagreement, it is the wife's attitude that has more influence on fertility, particularly if she has the stronger belief about the future security and status to be derived from a large family and from sons.The data for this paper were collected by the Taiwan Provincial Institute of Family Planning under the direction of T.S. Sun, in collaboration with the University of Michigan Population Studies Center and with the financial assistance of the Population Council. Grants from the Center for Population Research of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development and the Ford Foundation provided support for the analysis. We wish to acknowledge the assistance of James B. Rogers in the computer work and of Ronald Freedman in comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

论稳定低生育水平

中国经济已进入以扩大内需为主的新发展阶段,从可持续发展计,保持经济持续、快速和健康发展,必须把已出现的低生育水平稳定住。我国已经是低生育率国家,但低生育水平还不稳定。从当前和今后的发展来看,稳定低生育水平,必须使人口政策和经济政策协调起来,积极寻求扩大内需与稳定低生育水平的政策结合点,增加计划生育的政府投入,完善计划生育利益导向机制,处理好稳定现行政策与人口与计划生育工作机制改革与创新的关系。     

A summary analysis of the 3rd inquiry

20 ESCAP member countries responded to the "Third Population Inquiry among Governments: Population policies in the context of development in 1976." The questionnaire sent to the member countries covered economic and social development and population growth, mortality, fertility and family formation, population distribution and internal migration, international migration, population data collection and research, training, and institutional arrangements for the formulation of population policies within development. Most of the governments in the ESCAP region that responded indicate that the present rate of population growth constrains their social and economic development. Among the governments that consider the present rate of population growth to constrain economic and social development, 13 countries regarded the most appropriate response to the constraint would include an adjustment of both socioeconomic and demographic factors. 11 of the governments regarded their present levels of average life expectancy at birth "acceptable" and 7 identified their levels as "unacceptable." Most of the governments who responded consider that, in general, their present level of fertility is too high and constrains family well-being. Internal migration and population distribution are coming to be seen as concerns for government population policy. The most popular approaches to distributing economic and social activities are rural development, urban and regional development and industrial dispersion. There was much less concern among the governments returning the questionnaire about the effect of international migration than internal migration on social and economic development.     

2000-2010年中国育龄妇女生育完成度变化分析

新中国成立以来,妇女不论在社会活动领域还是家庭领域的地位都有了质的变化。妇女可以参与各种政治、经济、文化娱乐等活动,有的妇女在家庭领域的地位甚至超过了丈夫。尽管妇女受教育程度提高了,但与男性相比还有一定的差距。有研究表明:受教育程度和生育水平呈负相关,尤其是母亲的受教育水平影响更显著。由于教育的影响,妇女的生育水平和生育时间都发生了很大的变化。文章利用最近两次中国人口普查数据来研究育龄妇女的生育年龄的完成度变化情况,并对中国目前TFR很低的现象做了解释,据此推断中国在未来几年的时间,总和生育率会在一定程度上呈上升的变化趋势,但不可能在短期内回升到更替水平。     

Education,health and family size as determinants of labor market activity for the poor and nonpoor

The effect of head’s and wife’s educational attainment, health and the number of the head’s dependents under 18 on the amount of time spent in the labor force by white and black male heads of both poor and nonpoor families is investigated in this paper. The technique employed is multivariate regression analysis using disaggregated data from the 1967 Survey of Economic Opportunity. While educational attainment has a positive effect on the supply of labor of nonpoor heads, it has an insignificant effect on the black poor and a nonlinear effect on white poor heads. The health of head and wife has a very important effect on the ability of the poor to supply labor services while for the nonpoor the health effect is insignificant. For both the poor and nonpoor, there is a positive relationship between family size and the supply of labor. Evidence is also presented to indicate that the black husband’s and wife’s labor market activity are substitutes while they are complementary within white families.     

Sub-Saharan Africa: population pressures on development

The population of sub-Saharan Africa, estimated at 434 million in 1984, is expected to reach 1.4 billion by 2025. The birth rate, currently 48/1000 population, continues to increase, and the death rate, 17/1000, is declining. Rapid population growth has curtailed government efforts to provide adequate nutrition, preserve the land base essential for future development, meet the demand for jobs, education, and health services, and address overcrowding in urban areas. Low education, rural residence, and low incomes are key contributors to the area's high fertility. Other factors include women's restricted roles, early age at marriage, a need for children as a source of security and support in old age, and limited knowledge of and access to modern methods of contraception. Average desired family size, which is higher than actual family size in most countries, is 6-9 children. Although government leaders have expressed ambivalence toward development of population policies and family planning programs as a result of the identification of such programs with Western aid donors, the policy climat is gradually changing. By mid-1984, at least 13 of the 42 countries in the region had indicated that they consider current fertility rates too high and support government and/or private family planning programs to reduce fertility. In addition, 26 countries in the region provide some government family planning services, usually integrated with maternal and child health programs. However, 10 countries in the region do not support family planning services for any reason. Unfortunately, sub-Saharan Africa has not yet produced a family planning program with a measurable effect on fertility that could serve as a model for other countries in the region. Social and economic change is central to any hope of fertility reduction in sub-Saharan Africa. Lower infant and child mortality rates, rising incomes, higher education, greater economic and social opportunities for women, and increased security would provide a climate more conducive to fertility decline. Given the limited demand, great sensitivity must be shown in implementing family planning programs.     

女性健康风险冲击对配偶劳动供给的影响研究

不可预期的疾病是45岁以上中老年劳动者经常面临的健康风险冲击.个体的健康风险冲击将会对配偶的劳动供给行为带来两个方面的影响,一是配偶为了照护患病个体将会减少劳动供给;二是因患病消费增加,收入减少,配偶将会增加劳动供给.本文采用中国健康和养老追踪调查2011-2018纵向调查数据实证检验这两方面的效应.本文研究发现当女性...     

The influence of labour force participation and education on fertility in Thailand

Abstract Increasingly, discussion of the appropriateness and effectiveness of methods to limit population growth have focussed both on measures which seek to provide new and efficient contraceptives to an ever larger target population and on those measures which go beyond family planning to emphasize the need for adoption of policies 'expressly related to family roles and opportunities for legitimate alternative satisfactions and activities'.(1) Proponents of the latter course of action argur that such policies offer greater promise of reduction in family size because they directly assault the motivational framework of reproduction. Among the means suggested for limiting reproductioe within marriage as well as postponing marriage is modification of the complementarity of the rolen of men and women.(2) Of particular interest in this regard is the nature of the relation betweens female labour force participation and education and fertility, and the implications these relations may have for future fertility reduction, particularly in the developing world.     

Kenya's record population growth: a dilemma of development

The causes and implications of Kenya's 4% rate of natural increase and fertility rate of 8.1 births per woman were examined. Attention was directed to the following: pronatalist pressures; inadvertent pronatalist impact of development; women's education and employment and fertility; population growth and pressures; mortality decline and population growth; fertility levels and differentials; fertility desires; the family planning program; and family planning knowledge, attitudes, and practice. Kenya's development success has worked to push up the population growth rate. Improved health care and nutrition halved infant mortality from 160 to 87 deaths/1000 live births between 1958 and 1977 and a marked increase in primary school enrollment may be factors in the birthrate increase to 53/1000 population. At this time fertility is highest among women with 1-4 years of education. The 1977-1978 Kenya Fertility Survey showed that only 5.8% of married women were using modern contraception, indicating that the national family planning program, established in 1967, has made little progress. Program difficulties have included shortages of staff, supplies and easily accessible clinic as well as an almost universal desire on the part of Kenyans for families of at least 7 children. Children are viewed as essential to survival and status to the rural population.     

The effects of social capital and social pressure on the intention to have a second or third child in France, Germany, and Bulgaria, 2004-05

This study investigates the importance of the effect of an individual's web of informal relationships with family and peers on the intention to have a second or third child. Drawing on sociological theories of social capital (help with childcare, emotional support) and social pressure, the study extends existing research by evaluating cross-national differences (between France, Germany, and Bulgaria) in the impact of personal network and institutional circumstances. It tests a non-linear relationship between social capital and fertility intentions. Social pressure and social capital are highly institutionally filtered, with the impact of personal network stronger where institutions are less family-supportive.     

Land,Fertility, and the Population Establishment

Attempts to demonstrate the dependence of fertility decline in the Third World on radical change have often depended on simplistic statistical analyses. Here some of the data used to explore the relationship between fertility, and land size and ownership, are re-examined. It is concluded that the land-fertility hypotheses of Stokes and Schutjer are not supported by the evidence, but that such analyses are inherently inconclusive and ambiguous. Instead, an understanding of the wider institutional context is called for. The Population Establishment – foreign and international donors supporting population programmes and research – recruits an intelligentsia to validate its activities. The philosophy of this intelligentsia is examined and rejected through an analysis of ideas it derives from the World Fertility Survey and the Matlab family planning project. It is concluded that the Establishment perpetuates rapid population growth by legitimizing unpopular and elitist governments, and by misleading them to believe that fertility decline can, indeed, occur in a political economy of inequality and injustice.     

The Catholic response to the population problem

A survey of efforts led or sponsored by the Catholic church in response to the population problem in the Philippines. These efforts stem from the Church's belief that population growth is related to the overall picture of development, and that priority must go to social and economic justice. The Catholic Church of the Philippines (to which 85% of the population belong) views it as a problem basically involving care of people, and directs its efforts primarily at internal human sexual control rather than external contraceptive control. Family Life Education began as a program in the church in the 1960s. Efforts by priests, nuns, and lay leaders in Mindanao eventually resulted in counseling in husband-wife relations, marriage commitment, human sexuality, parent-child relations, and responsible parenthood, and to the creation of college courses to prepare teachers in tackling sex education. A program offering natural family planning was also started, initially for employees of a packing firm and later expanding throughout the province. In 1975, the program was launched in Manila, and a year later had 3 family life centers. The ovulation (or Billings) method is offered -- an advantage to low income people because it does not require purchase of a thermometer. Success of this method requires a sense of responsibility on the part of both husband and wife. Widespread international interest in the ovulation method has led to formation of an International Federation for Family Life Promotion, to which the Philippine Federation for Natural Family Planning has applied for membership. The IFFLP is working with the WHO Human Reproduction Unit on 2 projects, part of one of them (a field trial for evaluation) being conducted in Iligan City, Iloilo City, and Manila. Among the concerns of the IFFLP-WHO collaboration is developing a standardized Natural Family Planning curriculum or educational package.