Accuracy of the 1990 census and undercount adjustments

"In July 1991 the [U.S.] Census Bureau recommended to its parent agency, the Department of Commerce, that the 1990 census be adjusted for undercount. The Secretary of Commerce decided not to adjust, however. Those decisions relied at least partly on the Census Bureau's analyses of the accuracy of the census and of the proposed undercount adjustments based on the Post-Enumeration Survey (PES).... This article describes the total error analysis and loss function analysis of the Census Bureau. In its decision not to adjust the census, the Department of Commerce cited different criteria than aggregate loss functions. Those criteria are identified and discussed."     

人口普查净误差构成部分的估计

 人口普查误差,即普查登记人数与“人口数真值”之差,也叫净误差,实际上是普查遗漏人数抵消普查错误计数人数的结果。净误差掩盖了人口普查中所发生的错误计数和遗漏这两个方面的错误的真实情况。美国普查局决定,在2010年人口普查的事后质量检查中,除了像以往一样继续估计净误差之外,还将估计错误计数人数和遗漏人数。这是对人口普查事后质量检查工作的一项重大改进。本文在解读有关文献的基础上,讨论了估计错误计数人数和遗漏人数的途径、数据准备以及抽样估计的有关问题。     

Recent work with microcomputers for census processing in developing countries

The use of microcomputers to process census data in developing countries is discussed. Specifically, the authors describe the Integrated Microcomputer Processing System (IMPS) developed by the U.S. Bureau of the Census and focus "on the recent experience of Burkina Faso and Senegal in using microcomputers. A summary is given of the use of IMPS by an increasing number of countries. Additionally, this paper describes the latest enhancements and future plans for IMPS. It concludes with some thoughts on the use of microcomputers in the areas of data collection and processing, as well as in the use and dissemination of census data."     

The 1990 Post-Enumeration Survey: operations and results

The author assesses the 1990 Post-Enumeration Survey, which was "designed to produce Census tabulation of [U.S.] states and local areas corrected for the undercount or overcount of population....[He] discusses the process that produced the census adjustment estimates [as well as] the work aimed at improving the estimates.... The article then presents some of the principal results...."     

How increased automation will improve the 1990 census of population and housing of the United States

"The U.S. Bureau of the Census will increase significantly the automation of operations for the 1990 Census of Population and Housing, thus eliminating or reducing many of the labor-intensive clerical operations of past censuses and contributing to the speedier release of data products. An automated address control file will permit the computer to monitor the enumeration status of an address. The automated address file will also make it possible to begin electronic data processing concurrently with data collection, and, thus, 5-7 months earlier than for the 1980 Census. An automated geographic support system will assure consistency between various census geographic products, and computer-generated maps will be possible. Other areas where automation will be introduced or increased are questionnaire editing, coding of written entries on questionnaires, and reporting of progress and cost by field offices."     

On estimating census undercount in small areas

"Net undercount rates in the U.S. decennial census have been steadily declining over the last several censuses. Differential undercounts among race groups and geographic areas, however, appear to persist. In the following, we examine and compare several methodologies for providing small area estimates of census coverage by constructing artificial populations. Measures of performance are also introduced to assess the various small area estimates. Synthetic estimation in combination with regression modelling provide the best results over the methods considered. Sampling error effects are also simulated. The results form the basis for determining coverage evaluation survey small area estimates of the 1900 decennial census."     

Some coverage error models for census data

"Alternative models are presented for representing coverage error in surveys and censuses of human populations. The models are related to the capture-recapture models used in wildlife applications and to the dual-system models employed in the vital events literature. Estimation methodologies are discussed for one of the coverage error models." After a discussion of the theory underlying the methodology, "distinctions are made between two kinds of error: (a) sampling error and (b) error associated with the model. An example involving data from the 1980 U.S. census is presented. The problem of adjusting census and survey data for coverage error is also discussed."     

A three-sample multiple-recapture approach to census population estimation with heterogeneous catchability

"A central assumption in the standard capture-recapture approach to the estimation of the size of a closed population is the homogeneity of the 'capture' probabilities. In this article we develop an approach that allows for varying susceptibility to capture through individual parameters using a variant of the Rasch model from psychological measurement situations. Our approach requires an additional recapture. In the context of census undercount estimation, this requirement amounts to the use of a second independent sample or alternative data source to be matched with census and Post-Enumeration Survey (PES) data.... We illustrate [our] models and their estimation using data from a 1988 dress-rehearsal study for the 1990 census conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, which explored the use of administrative data as a supplement to the PES. The article includes a discussion of extensions and related models."     

Estimation of population coverage in the 1990 United States census based on demographic analysis

"This article presents estimates of net coverage of the national population in the 1990 [U.S.] census, based on the method of demographic analysis. The general techniques of demographic analysis as an analytic tool for coverage measurement are discussed, including use of the demographic accounting equation, data components, and strengths and limitations of the method. Patterns of coverage displayed by the 1990 estimates are described, along with similarities or differences from comparable demographic estimates for previous censuses....A final section presents the results of the first statistical assessment of the uncertainty in the demographic coverage estimates for 1990." Comments by Clifford C. Clogg and Christine L. Himes (pp. 1,072-4) and Jeffrey S. Passel (pp. 1,074-7) and a rejoinder by the authors (pp. 1,077-9) are included.     

Report of the ASA Technical Panel on the Census Undercount

"This report contains recommendations reflecting the views of the ASA Technical Panel on the Census Undercount concerning [U.S.] Census Bureau procedures and plans in the fall of 1982." The report consists of technical statistical advice on measurement and estimation problems. A response by Barbara A. Bailar, reflecting the views of the U.S. Census Bureau, is also included (pp. 257-60).     

Full Bayesian Analysis for a Model of Tail Dependence

The family of the asymmetric logistic copulas appears naturally in modeling tail dependence. Within this family, some well-known models, as independence and logistic dependence, define precise hypotheses, having zero posterior probability for an absolute continuous posterior distribution.

We show that the e-value associated to the Full Bayesian Significance Test has a good performance in non standard dependence problems, obtaining posterior estimates and predictive distributions.

The analysis proposed is illustrated with two examples: (1) monthly sea level maxima at Newlyn and Sheerness, England (1990–2005) and (2) AIDS rates related to an educational indicator in U.S. Census Bureau (2007 U.S. Census Bureau (2007). Persons 25 Years Old and Over with a Bachelor's Degree or More. http://www.census.gov/statab/ranks/rank19.html  [Google Scholar]). We validate the inferences obtained through simulated data.     

A Theory for Coloring Bivariate Statistical Maps

Consideration of some practical uses of statistical bivariate maps—for example, display of association between variables—leads to principles for making effective use of color to represent data values. Effective color schemes for bivariate maps are viewed as continuous transformations from color models to the unit square with appropriate restrictions involving hue, saturation, and brightness. Several schemes, including those used by the U.S. Census Bureau, are criticized on the basis of this theory.     

Adjusting the 1980 census of population and housing

"In 1980, several cities and states sued the U.S. Census Bureau to correct census results. This correction would adjust for the differential undercounting of Blacks and Hispanics, especially in cities. In this article, the authors, each of whom testified for New York City and State in their joint lawsuit against the Census Bureau, describe the likely pattern of the undercount and present a method to adjust for it." The authors describe available methods for data adjustment and introduce a regression-based composite method of adjustment, which is used to estimate the undercounts for 66 areas. "As expected, we find that the highest undercount rates are in large cities, and the lowest are in states and state remainders with small percentages of Blacks and Hispanics. Next, we analyze how sensitive our estimates are to changes in data and modeling assumptions. We find that these changes do not affect the estimates very much. Our conclusion is that regardless of whether we use one of the simple methods or the composite method and regardless of how we vary the assumptions of the composite method, an adjustment reliably reduces population shares in states with few minorities and increases the shares of large cities."     

Assessing between-block heterogeneity within the post-strata of the 1990 Post-Enumeration Survey

"The 1990 [U.S.] Post-Enumeration Survey (PES) stratified the population into 1,392 subpopulations called post-strata based on location, race, tenure, sex and age, in the hope that these subpopulations were homogeneous in relation to factors affecting the Census coverage....With block-level data from the PES for sites around Detroit and Texas, we are able to examine empirically the extent to which this hope was realized. Using various measures, we find that between-block variation in erroneous enumeration and gross omission rates is about the same magnitude as, and largely in addition to, the corresponding between-post-stratum variation." Comments by Joseph L. Schafer and Donald Ylvisaker and a rejoinder by the authors are included (pp. 1,125-9).     

非抽样误差视角下普查涵盖误差及其模型研究

根据普查数据生成过程,将实际普查汇总结果与目标总体真值的净误差定义为普查涵盖误差;从非抽样误差的作用分析,提出涵盖误差来源影响的三个假设,并论证采用净误差表现普查涵盖误差的合理性。在此基础上,将涵盖误差的产生机制和普查数据汇总模型结合,构建不同普查类型下计数与内容涵盖误差的模型与误差分解过程;以此论述了非抽样误差对涵盖误差的影响作用,以及计数涵盖误差和内容涵盖误差间的联系,为进一步研究普查数据质量评估与控制奠定理论基础。     

The first complete enumeration of Papua New Guinea--the 1980 population census

"The 1980 Population Census of Papua New Guinea was the first complete enumeration of the population of the country. It was also the first census to be designed and processed within the country. This paper gives the background to the census and outlines the development and implementation of the project, concentrating on the problems encountered and the procedures developed to overcome them in this (in many ways) unique environment. The census project was a thorough exercise and recommendations are also given for the future."     

Classification by race and Spanish origin in the 1980 census and its impact on white and nonwhite rates

A basic change concerning the racial classification of persons of Spanish origin used in the 1980 U.S. census is examined for its impact on white and nonwhite population counts, particularly in urban areas. "Arrest rates by race for central city Phoenix together with 1980 census data by race and ethnicity for Phoenix and 11 other central cities are used to illustrate the substantive effect of changes in the white and 'other race' counts produced by this change in procedure." The authors consider "remedies for the problems faced by those using published census data..., and one possibility for creating comparable rates is presented. Closely related complications created by the failure of the Office of Management and Budget to arrive at a single, logical statistical standard for the classification of U.S. residents by race and ethnicity are also identified."     

Topic selection for the Australian census of population and housing

"We describe how topics were selected for the Australian Census of Population and Housing. Australia has adopted an open assessment of topics submitted by users and the general public and then performed field tests of difficult or sensitive questions. For the 1986 Census, special attention was given to the development of a census question on ethnic origin."     

普查涵盖误差及其测量机制研究

 针对周期性普查的统计数据质量,本文在界定普查涵盖误差的基础上,从分析普查涵盖误差与抽样框误差的异同入手,以此为基础讨论普查涵盖误差的构成及分类,将普查涵盖误差特点概括为全面性、过程性和偏差性;将普查涵盖误差测量思路与重复调查技术假定相结合,论述基于抽样设计和基于双系统模型的测量机制,用于分析事后抽查对不同普查涵盖误差的测量技术假定,为进行我国普查事后抽查的后续研究奠定理论基础。