Proposal for a Dynamic Composite Indicator: Application in a Comparative Analysis of Trends in the EU Member States Towards the Europe 2020 Strategy

This paper contributes, with a dynamic approach, to the research on the creation of comparable composite indicators by presenting a proposal for an exploratory factor analysis protocol to enable a comparative trend analysis. The originality of the study lies in the three dimensions of information for analysis: observations, variables and units of time. The proposal involves various stages of analysis with the ultimate, albeit not exclusive, aim of obtaining what is known as a Global Dynamic Indicator. The analysis process begins by structuring the data into a three-dimensional global matrix, thereby conditioning, while also, and primarily, enriching the later stages. A combination of multiple factor analysis and a clustering technique is the selected approach for successfully meeting the challenges involved. The appropriateness and versatility of the proposal are validated through the analysis of the trends of the EU member states towards the targets set by the 2020 Strategy. The study period runs from 2009 to 2018. The empirical work enables the visualisation and quantification of trend differences and similarities across member states collectively and individually, and across all the variables and years selected for analysis. The relevant findings will be quantified by means of a synthetic indicator for each unit of time and a global indicator for the period as a whole. Some of the conclusions reached by this paper are consistent with those already published by various authors.

     

Life satisfaction in persons with schizophrenia living in the community

Subjective well-being is an increasingly common indicator of adequacy of psychiatric services. An easy-to-administer assessment tool of subjective well-being that is conceptually sound, valid, and reliable is needed for use in persons with schizophrenia. The purpose of this paper was to validate the 5-item Satisfaction with Life Scale (SWLS)-Taiwan version for persons with schizophrenia living in the community. Specifically, the internal consistency reliability, construct validity and criterion-related validity were examined. Data were obtained from a total of 443 patients with schizophrenia at multiple areas of Taiwan. Item analysis and confirmatory factor analysis were performed. The results revealed that the SWLS had good international consistency reliability and suggested a single-factor structure in life satisfaction among this patient group. The SWLS has good criterion-related validity with the brief World Health Organization Quality of Life Assessment (WHOQOL-BREF). It is concluded that the SWLS is a sound measurement to be used with persons with schizophrenia living in the community.     

Problems in using birth-history analysis to estimate trends in fertility

Summary The problem investigated is the adequacy of birth-history analysis as a method for estimating fertility change. The analysis demonstrates that inaccurate reporting of the dates of birth of live-born children can, under reasonable assumptions, significantly distort cohort fertility schedules in such a way that estimates of change in fertility will be biased in the direction of exaggerating declines in fertility. This kind of bias is shown to exist in fertility estimates obtained from survey data in El Salvador and Bangladesh. An important implication is that birth history questionnaires should begin with the most recent, rather than the earliest, event in a respondent's experience.     

从再婚人口的性别差异看城市女性的再婚困境——以北京为例

随着我国婚姻解体数量的增多，再婚也日益普遍。基于北京市人日抽样调查数据和婚姻登记数据的计算结果表明，北京近年来失婚女性的再婚率只有男性的40％左右。通过对再婚人口的婚次、年龄、教育程度和户籍等方面的特征及其匹配特点的分析，可以看到女性在再婚过程中相对男性处于明显的弱势地位，而“男高女低”的婚配模式则是造成城市女性再婚困境的主要原因。     

Analysing International Student Mobility Flows in Higher Education: A Comparative Study on European Countries

The analysis of the factors pulling and pushing students in a foreign country to complete their higher education is key for the implementation of university policies aimed at increasing the number of credits gained by students abroad and hence the degree of internationalisation of institutions. Consistent with previous studies, the present contribution examines the roles played by countries in the Erasmus student mobility flows by considering a joint strategy of analysis based on social network analysis and exploratory data analysis. First, data on Erasmus student exchanges among countries are gathered at macro-level from the European Union Open Data Portal and network data structures are analysed. Second, educational indicators from the Eurostat website are collected to describe the investments in higher education. The main findings suggest the presence of a core-periphery configuration in the student mobility network with few central countries in which the economic benefits and the investments in education seem to act as key elements for university attractiveness.

     

A hazards-Model analysis of the covariates of infant and child mortality in Sri Lanka

The purpose of this paper is twofold: (a) to provide a complete self-contained exposition of estimating life tables with covariates through the use of hazards models, and (b) to illustrate this technique with a substan-tive analysis of child mortality in Sri Lanka, thereby demonstrating that World Fertility Survey data are a valuable source for the study of child mortality. We show that life tables with covariates can be easily estimated with standard computer packages designed for analysis of contingency tables. The substantive analysis confirms and supplements an earlier study of infant and child mortality in Sri Lanka by Meegama. Those factors found to be strongly associated with mortality are mother’s and father’s education, time period of birth, urban/rural/estate residence, ethnicity, sex, birth order, age of the mother at the birth, and type of toilet facility.     

The present value of population growth in the western world

Abstract In conventional steady-state growth theory with technical progress exogenous, faster population growth causes lower consumption. This conclusion has influenced national policies. With technical progress endogenous, however, higher population growth causes higher consumption. Steady-state equilibrium analysis is not appropriate for policy decisions, though. Rather, appropriate analysis compares two or more growth rates beginning from equal initial positions, with comparison of the present value of consumption streams per person. In the paper the supply of and demand for knowledge is first analysed and the most plausible technical progress functions are derived. Various population growth rates are then simulated with different specifications and parameters. With virtually every variant, faster population growth shows better consumption with discount rates up to between five and ten per cent above the long-run adjusted riskless rate. With pensions included in the analysis, faster population growth would seem even more beneficial. Even at very high discount rates, lower population growth rates imply present values only a little higher than those for higher population growth rates. The advantage is overwhelmingly with higher population growth in this growth-theoretic analysis.     

The Relationship between Birth History and Current Fertility in Developing Countries

The aim of this research is to find a model of fertility in terms of ‘birth-history’ factors which is common to a diversity of developing countries. Data for nine WFS countries are analysed. The analysis is essentially a birth-interval life-table analysis with regression where factor effects are allowed to vary smoothly over time since previous birth. Strong evidence for a common model is found, with surprisingly similar patterns in the parameters emerging for each country. The main components of the model may be interpreted in terms of ‘tempo’ of previous reproduction, age-related infecundity, and birth-order-related fertility control.     

Effects of population policy and economic reform on the trend in fertility in Guangdong province,China, 1975–2005

An analysis of data mainly from China's 1990 and 2000 censuses and 2005 mini-census shows how fertility decline between 1975 and 2005 in the province of Guangdong has been influenced by both fertility policy and economic and social development. Guangdong's development since 1975 has been very rapid and has attracted huge numbers of migrants from other provinces. The analysis of the province's fertility trend from 1975 shows clearly the influence of fertility policy on the trend. The analysis also shows that economic development has brought about large changes in population composition by urban/rural residence, education, occupation, and migration status, which, together with large fertility differentials by these characteristics, have contributed substantially to Guangdong's fertility decline, in large part through changes in proportions currently married.     

Predicting the quality of life in the United States

A principal components analysis performed by David M. Smith on 47 U.S. state level indicators of social well-being yielded several components. The first two of these are socio-economic well-being and social pathology. Structural hypotheses are offered to explain state differences in these components. The structural variables condensed by a principal components analysis of state political, economic and social structure measures are differentiation, flexibility-rigidity, and progressive industrialization. These, along with several population measures, determine a substantial part of the variance in the two measures of social well-being.     

Demographic determinants of labour market in Poland in 1990-2000

The author examines factors affecting Poland's transition to a market economy, including changes in the age, sex, and spatial distribution of the labor force. Educational status is also considered. The analysis concerns the period 1975-2000, with emphasis on the years from 1988 to 1990.     

中国人口老龄化区域差异与收敛性研究

本文通过对中国人口老龄化空间分布特征的分析，得出各地区人口老龄化程度普遍加深且存在空间聚集性，呈现东部沿海－中部－西部内陆的扩张规律，形成了沿长江流域严重老龄化聚集地带。此外，全局和局部 Moran 指数显示我国人口老龄化存在显著的全局和局部空间正相关关系。于是考虑空间相关性，借鉴经济增长收敛性的研究方法，建立空间计量模型，发现我国地区间人口老龄化存在绝对β收敛，且收敛速度较快。     

Fertility in England and Wales: a fifty-year perspective

This paper provides a detailed account of fertility levels and trends in England and Wales since 1938, with a briefer coverage of a much longer time-span. The paper is concerned both with the measurement of fertility and with understanding the observed fertility behaviour. We lament and correct the failure of demographers to apply measurement tools available since the 1950s to the analysis of fertility in England and Wales, with a particular emphasis on adjustment of period measures and period parity progression ratios and show how some of the grosser errors of analysis and interpretation might have been avoided by earlier use of these approaches. We also relate these estimates to more recent ones. Once a clearer account of trends has been established, the paper goes on to reinterpret and explain the baby boom and baby bust. The conclusion looks at future prospects for fertility.     

Fertility in England and Wales: A Fifty-Year Perspective

This paper provides a detailed account of fertility levels and trends in England and Wales since 1938, with a briefer coverage of a much longer time-span. The paper is concerned both with the measurement of fertility and with understanding the observed fertility behaviour. We lament and correct the failure of demographers to apply measurement tools available since the 1950s to the analysis of fertility in England and Wales, with a particular emphasis on adjustment of period measures and period parity progression ratios and show how some of the grosser errors of analysis and interpretation might have been avoided by earlier use of these approaches. We also relate these estimates to more recent ones. Once a clearer account of trends has been established, the paper goes on to reinterpret and explain the baby boom and baby bust. The conclusion looks at future prospects for fertility.     

中国省级人工流产的决定因素分析

利用省级数据对中国社会经济发展和计划生育对人工流产的影响进行了分析。因子分析将20个社会经济和计划生育变量合成了3个分别代表经济发展、社会发展和计划生育侧面的因子。多元回归分析的结果表明,经济发展和社会发展因素对各省各孕次人工流产比例都有显著而重要的影响,尤其是第1孕次人工流产比例与计划生育无关。而随着孕次升高,计划生育的独立作用不断增强。     

Demographic responses and socioeconomic structure: Population processes in England and Wales in the nineteenth century

This paper explores some theoretical and empirical aspects related to the theory of change and multiple response. The empirical analysis focuses on 600 relatively small and homogeneous geographical units of England and Wales for the period 1851-1910. These units are classified into six identifiable socioeconomic types and the analysis is male for each of them. Two interrelated tissues are studied. First, a set of explanatory variables, connected either with strain or with factors relieving strain, is constructed. The effects of these explanatory variables on nuptiality, marital fertility, and migration responses are examined for each socioeconomic type, with respect to their significance, intensity, and direction. The patterns of these effects show general consistency with multiphasic response considerations for all socioeconomic types. A significant finding in this part is that migration affects very strongly the intensity of the marital fertility decline response. The second issue deals with theoretically expected patterns of interrelationships among responses in terms of substitutability and complementarity. The theoretical interrelationships are compared with the empirical for each socioeconomic type; and in general, consistency is established. Moreover, these interrelationships can be interpreted for each socioeconomic type in a way that appears to be consistent with multiphasic response considerations. An important finding in this part is that emigration and marital fertility decline are substitute responses in agricultural-based districts. Implications of the findings are discussed.     

我国人口老龄化水平的区域差异及其分解研究

本文运用方差及其分解等区域差异研究方法,定量分析了我国人口老龄化水平在东、中、西部及省际问的差异,结果表明：我国的人口老龄化水平区域差异不均衡,东、中、西部区域对应人口老龄化水平的“高、中、低”。区际间的差异及东部区域的省际差异有减小的趋势但是总体省际间差异却在不断扩大．尤其是中部和西部区域的省际差异。为此,需要社会共同努力应对人口老龄化水平不均衡所带来的影响。在此基础上,提出了相关的对策措施。     

中国城市人口生活质量区域性量化研究

改革开放30年来,中国城市人口生活质量得到大幅度提高,但是,国内不同区域人口生活质量存在较大的差异。根据统计分析中因子分析和聚类分析的方法,构建评价生活质量的指标体系,运用社会统计学软件SPSS15.0对2005年中国31个地区16项反映城市人口生活质量的截面数据指标进行量化分析。同时,根据计算结果对中国东中西和东北地区4个区域31个地区城市人口生活质量水平进行等级划分和综合评价。     

The Role of Perceived Discrepancy in Satisfaction Evaluation

This study investigates if satisfaction measures involve an implicit have-want comparison by examining the relationships between direct have-want discrepancy, amount, and satisfaction, which vary in their degree of explicitness. The have-want discrepancy measure explicitly asks respondents to rate the discrepancy between what they have and what they want. The amount measure requires respondents to think about the amount of discrepancy between what one has and what one wants, but does not explicitly ask about that. Finally, the satisfaction measure is assumed to incorporate a component of the have-want comparison but does not ask respondents to consider such a comparison in the question. Three hundred and thirty undergraduate students at National Taiwan University participated in this study. Correlation analysis showed that satisfaction has a closer relation with amount than have-want discrepancy. In addition, a mediation model in which have-want discrepancy influence amount, which then influences satisfaction, was generally supported in conventional mediation analysis and multilevel path analysis. In brief, this study showed that satisfaction measures involve an implicit have-want comparison.     

Family size,schooling and child labor in Peru -- an empirical analysis

This paper analyzes the effects of being indigenous, number of siblings, sibling activities and sibling age structure on child schooling progress and child non-school activity. The analysis is based on the Peru 1991 Living Standards Survey. The analysis shows that family size is important. However, the analysis also demonstrates the importance of taking into consideration the activities of siblings. The number of siblings not entrolled in school proves to be an important control variable in at least one specification of the empirical model. However, more research is needed on the interactions between siblings, their activities and their age structure. In other words, an attempt must be made to find ways of taking into account the “life cycle effects” of one‘s siblings on their schooling performance and labor force activity. The analysis also shows that the age structure of siblings is important, but in conjunction with their activities. That is, having a greater number of younger siblings implies less schooling, more age-grade distortion in the classroom and more child labor. JEL classification: J22, J23, I21 Received August 1, 1996 / Accepted February 21, 1997