World food resources and population: the narrowing margin

This bulletin examines the narrowing margin between global food production and population growth. Between 1950 and 1971, world grain production nearly doubled and per capita production increased 31%. During the 1970s, gains in output barely kept pace with population growth, consumption/person declined in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia, food prices were volatile, and over 100 food deficit countries came to depend on the exportable surplus of North America, now the only major grain exporting region. The world fish catch levelled off in the early 1970s and beef production, still dependent mainly on grassland grazing, levelled off in the mid-1970s. With little new land left to plow, satisfying increased food demand now depends on sharp increases in yields on existing crop land. Worldwide, this effort is hampered by loss of topsoil and irrigated land, conversion of cropland to nonfarm uses, rising energy costs, inefficient agrarian structures, particularly in the Soviet Union, the falling yield response to chemical fertilizers in agriculturally advanced countries, and the emerging competition between food and agriculturally based energy crops. Green Revolution successes in some developing countries deomonstrate that, given the right inputs, 3rd world farmers can increase crop yields dramatically. Feeding the world's poor also requires more equitable income and food distribution, including a reduction in the proportion of grain and fish consumed indirectly as livestock products by the affluent. Most important in meeting food needs on a finite planet is braking population growth. The author concludes that every effort should be made to stabilize world production at abour 6 billion by 2020, rather than 10.5 billion by 2110, as is now projected by the UN.     

Population, nutrition and agriculture

The human carrying capacity of the world or a country is considered as a function of food consumption per capita. A method of assessing carrying capacity is described, and it is shown that the world’s population currently exceeds the global carrying capacity, that the population of the less-developed countries (LDCs) exceeds their carrying capacity, and that this situation cannot be expected to change more than marginally in the period up to 2050. It is also shown that a major increase in the global consumption of nitrogen fertilizer will be necessary if world crop production per capita is to be maintained at the current inadequate level.     

Population and the energy problem

When energy is scarce or expensive, people can suffer material deprivation and economic hardship. When it is obtained in ways that fail to minimize environmental and political costs, these too can threaten human wellbeing in fundamental and pervasive ways. The energy problem today combines these syndromes: much of the world's population has too little energy to meet basic human needs; the monetary costs of energy are rising nearly everywhere; the environmental impacts of energy supply are growing and already dominant contributors to local, regional, and global environmental problems (including air pollution, water pollution, ocean pollution, and climate change); and the sociopolitical risks of energy supply (above all the danger of conflict over oil and the links between nuclear energy and nuclear weapons) are growing too. This predicament has many causes, but predominant among them are the nearly 20-fold increase in world energy use since 1850 and the cumulative depletion of the most convenient oil and gas deposits that this growth has entailed, resulting in increasing resort to costlier and/or environmentally more disruptive energy sources. The growth of world population in this period was responsible for 52% of the energy growth, while growth in per capita energy use was responsible for 48% (excluding causal connections between population and energy use per capita). In the United States in the same period, population growth accounted for 66% of the 36-fold increase in energy use. In the late 1980s, population growth was still accounting for a third of energy growth both in the United States and worldwide. Coping with global energy problems will require greatly increased investment in improving the efficiency of energy enduse and in reducing the environmental impacts of contemporary energy technologies, and it will require financing a transition over the next several decades to a set of more sustainable (but probably also more expensive) energy sources. The difficulty of implementing these measures will be greatest by far in the developing countries, not least because of their high rates of population growth and the attendant extra pressures on economic and managerial resources. If efficiency improvements permit delivering the high standard of living to which the world aspires based on a per capita rate of energy use as low as 3 kilowatts—about a quarter of the current U.S. figure—then a world population stabilized at 10 billion people would be using energy at a rate of 30 terawatts, and a population of 14 billion would imply 42 terawatts (compare 13.2 terawatts in 1990). Delivering even the lower figure at tolerable monetary and environmental costs will be difficult; each additional billion people added to the world population will compound these difficulties and increase energy's costs, making everyone poorer.Presented at the Symposium on Population and Scarcity: The Forgotten Dimensions.     

中国未来人口发展的粮食安全与耕地保障

中国人口发展的粮食安全与耕地保证程度研究表明,随着人口增长和消费扩张,中国未来的耕地规模和人均耕地面积会进一步下降,人均粮食消费水平和粮食需求总量将进一步提高;2020年在人均粮食420~435kg的消费水平上,基于18亿亩耕地保证的粮食生产能力可以基本满足14.36亿人口的粮食需求;在人均450kg的消费水平上,中国未来耕地的粮食生产能力足以支持人口高锋时间的14.73亿人,但受耕地资源有限约束,人均粮食占有水平很难有进一步提高。从耕地、粮食与人口关系看,中国未来人口的粮食安全必须向食物安全转变,从耕地资源约束的粮食生产与人口增长驱动的食物消费两端着眼:一方面要重视耕地与粮食安全——藏粮于土,全面提高土地资源综合生产能力;一方面要关注食物与消费安全——倡导适度消费,建立动植物并重型食物结构;从生产与消费两方面来认识和解决中国中长期人口发展的食物安全与耕地保障问题。     

The Fiscal Cost of Refugee Immigration: The Example of Sweden

The world currently has more refugees and internally displaced persons than it has had since World War II. Yet the readiness of many wealthy countries to provide asylum to these refugees is waning, and a major reason for this is the fiscal burden that would result from larger refugee intakes. To evaluate the size of this fiscal burden, this study estimates the net fiscal redistribution to the total refugee population in Sweden, the country with the largest per capita refugee immigration rate in the Western world since the early 1980s. The total redistribution in 2007 corresponds to 1.0 percent of Swedish GDP in that year. Four‐fifths of the redistribution is due to lower public per capita revenues from refugees compared with the total population, and one‐fifth to higher per capita public costs.     

The outlook of China's population after the stabilization of birth policy

A professor of the Institute of Population Research of the People's University of China attempts to project the future population development of China so that stabilization of the birth policy can be assessed. He divides China into the economically developed and population-controlled area (29% of the population), the economically subdeveloped and population fairly-controlled areas (59% of the population), and the economically less-developed areas where fertility is high (12% of the population). China's population is expected to increase because of the baby boom to 1.25-1.3 billion by the year 2000. Between 1996 and 2000, the growth rate is expected to decelerate and reach zero growth. After 2010, if growth is held at the replacement rate of 2.1, the population will still continue to grow slowly. Around 2100, China's population should be around 1.45-1.59 billion. This would cause a decrease of 27% of arable land. With a decline in fertility rate comes a rise in the amount of the aged population (4.9% in 1982 vs. 5.5% in 1987). The proportion of aged citizens is expected to rise with the stabilization policy until around 2040 where it can be held at about 18%. China's GNP by the year 2000 is expected to be US$1183.8 billion with the per capita GNP about US$934 (providing the population is controlled). Compare this figure with the per capita GNP of the world (US$30,100) and of developed countries (US$10,700) in 1988, and one can see that China is far behind the rest of the world in economic growth.     

Apocalypse when? Population growth and food supply in South Asia

Food demands for staple grains are expected to almost double over the next 25 years in South Asia, due to population growth and increased standards of living. Trends in the mid-1990s suggest that neither pessimism nor optimism prevails in the region. There is wide diversity among and within countries. Trends suggest that population densities are already the highest in the world, and the amount of arable land is declining. Urban growth has moved onto farm land and farmers have been pushed onto more marginal lands or have become landless. Land intensification has produced mixed results. Cereal production per capita has increased since the 1950s in India, with about 75% of the region's population, but Pakistan's increases were not sustained into the 1980s. Average daily caloric intake per person in the region of 2214 is below the level in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Bangladesh, levels are particularly worrisome at 2037. The environmental impact has not been easily quantified, but experts have suggested that pressure on farm land has contributed to loss of soil fertility and water resource loss. Further intensification of farming is feasible, but difficult and more expensive than in the past. Regardless of production problems and solutions, there is also the very real problem of poor food distribution and lack of purchasing power. Farm management skills must be utilized, if environmental degradation is to be avoided. There is the added unknown of what climate changes will occur and how agricultural production will be affected. The policy implications are that increased food production must be made a political priority. Policies must support agricultural research into improved technologies and support distribution of technological advances to a wider number of farmers. Rural infrastructures such as roads, market outlets, and credit agencies must be established. Policies must be removed that disadvantage farmers, such as inappropriate subsidies for irrigation water, inadequate tenure agreements, and price setting. Slowing population growth provides time to adjust to expanding production and saving the environment.     

Searching for balanced development

It is significant in China, as the day of 5 billion is commemorated, that the Government has shown its full committment to a family planning program that has been internationally acknowledged as one of the most successful efforts in the world today. Since 1979, the annual population growth rate in China has gone down from 2.7% to an annual average of around 1.2%. In fact, because China makes up more than 1/5 of the world's population, the overall growth rate achieved worldwide has been reduced to about 2%. This is heavily due to the achievements of the Chinese family planning program. Even as China has lowered its birthrate, its rate of agricultural production has rapidly risen. At present, China is doing well in grain production. Although the per capita income in China is still comparatively low, the country is able to feed its citizens, and the famines that used to be a big problem are now but a bad memory. As the close relationship between population and development is observed, there is some controversy about the effects and impact of family planning on development. The belief is held that the more people there are in this world, the more progress there will be because more brains, hands, and energy will be harnessed for development. As has also been noted, however, a person is not just head and hands--a person has a mouth to feed, as well. Thus, there is a need to balance the number of people with the resources of the society. If the rate of population growth outstrips economic and social production, then hunger and poverty will result, as the fruits of development will be eaten up too rapidly.     

Uncontrolled growth of human populations,geological background,and future prospects

The geological history of the Earth is replete with examples of animals proliferating to numbers that exceeded the ability of their environments to provide support. Enormous numbers and widespread distributions of many animals sometimes have been followed by drastic reductions in numbers of individuals and even by complete extinction of species. Humans of many nations are following the same trend of population growth beyond the ability of resources to insure adequate food, clothing, shelter, safety, and transport and beyond the ability of Earth to accommodate the wastes. Human population is now 5.4 billion, with a present doubling time estimated at about 35 years. Is this uncontrolled proliferation also to be followed by severe reduction or even extinction? If not, how may human population be stabilized or reduced to a level commensurate with resources and waste disposal—more effective contraceptives, increased abortion, high taxes on procreation? An approach more effective than religion or political control may be through better education (increased percentage literacy) that is known to correlate with lower birth rates and increased national income per capita in the about 167 nations of the world. If leadership cannot soon rise to face this situation, human inhabitation of the Earth may become much more complicated in the not distant future.     

Malthus and the Philippines

Jose D. Drilon, Jr., president of Food Terminal, Inc., and a former undersecretary of the then Department of Agriculture and Natural Resources in the Philippines, attributes the widening gap between food supply and demand in developing countries to the high rate of population growth and to the inability of poor countries to produce more food. This situation, in which many countries are facing hunger, was predicted by Thomas Robert Malthus as early as the 16th century. The primary concern of Malthus was the problem of making the food supply keep pace with a constantly growing population. The question arises as to how reliable is Malthusian theory. According to Drilon, Malthus was correct in predicting that population would expand at a rate not previously imagined but that the other aspects of Malthusian theory might not hold true due to the intervention of human beings. For example, it is hoped that the imbalance between population growth and food production can be minimized in the future. In the Philippines there is good reason to be concerned about the validity of Malthusian theory. Although the country's growth rate has been reduced from 3.01% in 1970 to 2.6%, it is still quite high. However, the Philippines has actually been producing sufficient food to feed its population. To make the Philippines self-sufficient in rice, the government initiated the Masagana 99 program in May 1973. Technical and material resources from the public and private sectors were provided to aid rice producers. A nationwide information campaign was also launched to familiarize the farmers with the new methods of rice culture. Masagana 99 has been costly but effective. Since the launching of the program, rice production in the Philippines has been increasing at 7% a year. The government is now using the Masagana 99 formula to increase the production of other crops.     

Recent Trends in Food Availability and Nutritional Wellbeing

This paper notes that, despite a doubling of the world's population, the past half century has witnessed marked improvements in per capita food availabilities and nutritional wellbeing in most parts of the globe. Aggregate diet quality has gone up in most developing countries and the incidence of child malnourishment and infant mortality has declined sharply. For the two groups falling outside of these generalizations—those living in Sub-Saharan Africa and the more impoverished of the three countries of the Indian subcontinent—remedial action lies less with agriculture than in political reform (Africa) and more and better paying jobs (Asia).     

An objective criterion of coordination of population growth with economic development]

Coordination of population growth with economic development is the fundamental element for the development of society. Based on China's present condition and our future goal--to be a communistic society--per capita income was suggested to be the most important criterion. Because the primary requirements of a communistic society and the goal of our socialistic production are material abundance and a highly developed civilization, per capita income is also the best criterion to measure the level of our "Four Modernizations" program and the coordination of population with the economy. The economic development based on per capita income also has international significance, for it will indicate the excellence of our system and contribute our strength to world peace in the future. In order to continue increasing per capita income the primary goal is increased production. On the other hand, a rapid population growth delays economic development. A comparatively small difference in population growth rate (a decrease from 1.5% to .5%) leads to a large difference in total population and the investment in the population after many years (e.g. 20 to 40 years). For China's present condition the slower the population growth rate the better for our economic development and the faster the per capita income will increase.     

生育率演变的生态学逻辑及人口增长的长期趋势

人口增长的长期过程一直是充满困惑与引发争论的话题,将人类复归到生态系统的普通成员,按照生态学逻辑构建一个由替代生育率内生引导、人口容量外生制约的人口增长新模型,以代替用具体社会经济因子解释短周期人口变动的传统思路,探讨生育率转变的一般模式及人口发展的长期趋势。工业革命以来,全球人口已经或正在经历着第一次、第二次生育率转变,全球生育率演变可以聚类为欧美、亚非拉、撒哈拉以南非洲和东亚四种区域模式;在计划生育政策的推动下,我国在短短的三十年内完整经历了两次生育率转变。极限替代生育率是生育率演变的长期目标,但当前已有一些国家跌破更替水平,这也许会成为各个国家的普遍经历,预示着人口容量约束的日益显性化;世界及主要国家的人口规模正在日益逼近其容量极限,并会在惯性驱动下突破容量限制,达到峰值后再以负增长方式趋近人口容量,同期的生育率也将向极限替代生育率递增复归。按趋势模拟世界和中国的可持续人口容量分别约为65亿人和12亿人。研究设计出测量人口增长惯性的新指标——人口增长惯性系数,它是生育率与实时替代生育率之比或出生率与死亡率之比,相比常用的人口惯性因子更为简便易行。     

World population growth and the food supply]

The general trend in the last several hundred years has been that the speed of growth in the food supply exceeds the speed of the population growth. For the time being, 2 major problems still exist. The 1st problem is that food production is still influenced by natural conditions. For example, abnormal weather conditions may cause regional food shortages. The 2nd problem is the imbalance of food consumption by the world population. This phenomenon exists between different social classes as well as between developed and developing countries. According to statistics released by the World Bank, 1 billion suffer from malnutrition today and most of them are in developing countries. In developed countries, about half of their increase in the food supply is for feed grains, and those countries follow the policy of reducing farm land for the purpose of maintaing stabl e grain prices. Up to the present time, grain prices have been unstable, and this has become a rather heavy economic burden for numerous developing countries. Many developing countries are trying to increase grain production by increasing their arable land and promoting their cultivating techniques. However, these countries are facing the problems of finding and adequate water supply, fertilizer, and pesticides. In addition, a rapid population growth in these countries has offset their endeavors in agriculture. In recent years, these counties have realized the necessity of birth control. The world population growth rate has decreased from 2% to about 1.7% in 1981. Birth control and an increase in the food supply will bring new hope to the world's problems of overpopulation and food supply.     

Resources,environment, and population: the nature of future limits

The balance between world supplies of resources and the demands presented by population growth in the recent past, during the period to 2025, and for the long term is examined. Focus is on the issues, the past in terms of socioeconomic indicators, past trends in market places, and specific evidence of depletion; future demands in terms of population projections and growth in per capita demand; resource supplies to 2025; ultimate resource production possibilities; environmental constraints and risks (problems capable of control at reasonable cost, other domestic environmental problems, and potentially severe global problems); and implications. Improvement in socioeconomic indicators, relatively stable resource market prices, along with evidence of resource and environmental changes suggest that thus far the world as a whole has been able to win the race between demand and supply. For the next 50 years, during which a slowdown is projected in population growth rates and resource consumption, the most important problems to be faced are associated with the unequal distribution of resources and the transition problems of moving from 1 resource regime to another in an orderly fashion. For the long term, a projected equilibrium population of 10-12 billion can probably be sustained at a decent standard of living by more equitable distribution of food and shifts from less to more abundant resources. Ultimately, environmental and security problems associated with growing energy production and use such as increasing atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and nuclear proliferation may be the most difficult to resolve. Although cessation of population growth would help, it does not by itself constitute a solution to the world's resource problems. Both the causes and the symptoms need to be worked on simultaneously. Understanding the true nature of the world's resource and environmental limitations is a 1st step in that direction.     

Strongly pressed by the task of population control

Today, the world population grows at an annual rate of over 80 million. The activities of "the Day of the 5 Billion" sponsored by the United Nations sounds alarm to the world: It is an emerging task to strictly control human reproduction. China, being a developing country, knows only too well the difficulties that over-rapid population growth brings upon economic and social development. Population control is a pressing task. China would like to make the nation prosperous by quadrupling the gross national product (GNP) to US$800 or US$1000 per capita, thus raising the people's living standard to the level of being well-off at the end of the century. The GNP would be quadrupled again to US$4000 per capita with the standard of living raised by the mid-21st century. In order to realize strategic goals, China must strive to control the total population of China at about 1.2 billion at the turn of the century, leaving a better population structure for the next century. At present, China has a population of 1.057 billion and is faced with a new baby boom. It is hoped that under the leadership of the Party's Central Committee and the State Council, governments at all levels, and the people of all nationalities will do a better job in population control by fulfilling the population plan for this year so as to lay down a good foundation for enforcing the plan during the 7th 5-year plan. Meanwhile, China will continue to make new contributions to the stabilization of the world's population together with the UNFPA and other international bodies and friendly countries who support China's population control policy.     

How the World Survived the Population Bomb: Lessons From 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History

The world population will reach 7 billion in late 2011, a demographic milestone that is causing renewed attention to the challenges caused by population growth. This article looks at the last 50 years of demographic change, one of the most extraordinary periods in demographic history. During this period, world population grew at rates that have never been seen before and will almost surely never be seen again. There were many concerns about the potential impact of rapid population growth in the 1960s, including mass starvation in countries such as India, depletion of nonrenewable resources, and increased poverty in low-income countries. The actual experience was very different. World food production increased faster than world population in every decade since the 1960s, resource prices fell during most of the period, and poverty declined significantly in much of the developing world. The article considers the economic and demographic explanations for the surprising successes of this important period in demographic history. It also looks at regions that have been less successful, especially Africa, and at the lessons for dealing with the important challenges that still remain.     

Utilitarian tradeoff between population growth and income growth

Utilitarian social welfare functions were devised for a world with a fixed population. With endogenous population, Edgeworth conjectured that the Benthamite principle of maximizing total utility (classical utilitarianism) would lead to a larger population size and a lower standard of living than the Millian principle of maximizing per capita utility (average utilitarianism). One objection to the Benthamite criterion was that its application to a world with finite resources often implied large population size in conjunction with an embarrassingly low average standard of living. In a static environment with altruistic parents, this may not be warranted. In a growth situation, this criticism is even less likely to be supported. This paper extends the comparison of classical and average utilitarianism from a static to a dynamic and endogenously growing economy. Using a stylised endogenous growth framework, it confirms that the Benthamite population growth rate exceeds the Millian growth rate. In terms of the rate of growth of per capita income, the reverse is true. Having the standard of living often increasing under the Benthamite criterion, our results thereby depart significantly from the repugnant conclusion levelled against classical utilitarianism.We would like to thank an anonymous referee for helpful suggestions.     

世界主要国家人口与经济的发展状况分析

2000年世界人口已经达到60.5亿,80.38%集中在发展中国家,而据预测,到2025年,这一比例会进一步上升到84%,2050年上升到87%以上.世界人口的60%集中在10个人口在1亿以上的人口大国中.发展中国家人口的快速增长,已经或正在吞食着其经济发展的成果,使得人均收入水平难以提高.     

Asia's population and development in retrospect and prospect

By 1989 Asia's population will reach 3 billion. That Asia's countries can change the course of population development has been shown by China, whose population growth rate has decreased to 1.2%. 58% of the world's population in 1985 was Asian, and 53% of it was concentrated in 11 Asian countries, of which 37.6% was accounted for by India and China. Asia's population density is 3 times the world average, and the number of persons sustained by a square kilometer of land in Asia is 2.5 times the world average. Asia's population is young (median age 20.3), which means a high dependency burden, a large number of women of childbearing age, and low quality of life, as measured by infant mortality, life expectancy, and literacy. Rapid population growth ensures a low rate of development. Asia's goals are to achieve a 1% growth rate by year 2000, zero population growth and replacement level by 2015 for East Asia and 2020 for South Asia. The World Bank estimates that Asia's population will not stabilize until the end of the 21st century, by which time it will have reached 6 billion. Asia must find a way of achieving both population control and economic development. 5 recommendations are made to the Asian Forum of Parliamentarians on Population and Development (AFPPD): 1) that the AFPPD sponsor the activities of "the Day of 3 billion"; 2) that seminars and conferences on population be held among Asian nations; 3) that high-fertility countries adopt late marriages, few births, and programs for maternal and child health; 4) that organizations for family planning be strengthened and given the resources to upgrade the status of women; and 5) that international cooperation in the area of population be intensified.