Forecasting Immigration in Official Population Projections Using an Econometric Model

Although substantial research has been conducted to quantify the determinants of international migration, most official population projections do not include such determinants in a formal migration model. Statistics Norway forecasts gross immigration to Norway using an econometric model based on standard migration theories. The main variables include income level, unemployment, and population size in Norway and the sending countries, and the number of immigrants already living in Norway. Projections of exogenous variables are drawn from international and Norwegian sources. Three different alternatives are specified for the income variables, leading to three different forecasts for gross immigration until 2100.     

The economic determinants of Greek return migration to the islands of the East Aegean

"The purpose of this article is to investigate the economic determinants of Greek return migration to the islands of the East Aegean, a region comprising hundreds of islands of different size in four administrative departments....[It] examines the sensitivity of return migration flows to changes in economic variables which influence decisions to return....The purpose...is to investigate the effect on return migration not only of economic development in the host country (push factors) but also of economic development in the islands of the East Aegean (pull factors), given their isolation from the mainland and their different economic structures." (SUMMARY IN SPA AND FRE)     

The Emerging Migration State1

Since 1945, immigration in the core industrial democracies has been increasing. The rise in immigration is a function of market forces (demand‐pull and supply‐push) and kinship networks, which reduce the transaction costs of moving from one society to another. These economic and sociological forces are the necessary conditions for migration to occur, but the sufficient conditions are legal and political. States must be willing to accept immigration and to grant rights to outsiders. How then do states regulate migration in the face of economic forces that push them toward greater openness, while security concerns and powerful political forces push them toward closure? States are trapped in a “liberal” paradox — in order to maintain a competitive advantage, governments must keep their economies and societies open to trade, investment, and migration. But unlike goods, capital, and services, the movement of people involves greater political risks. In both Europe and North America, rights are the key to regulating migration as states strive to fulfill three key functions: maintaining security; building trade and investment regimes; and regulating migration. The garrison state was linked with the trading state in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. The twentieth and twenty‐first centuries have seen the emergence of the migration state, where regulation of international migration is as important as providing for the security of the state and the economic well being of the citizenry.     

Real household income and attitude toward immigrants: an empirical analysis

Previous studies have analyzed the (aggregate) effects of unemployment on attitudes towards immigrants and on right-wing crimes. In this paper, we investigate the effects of economic prosperity on attitudes towards immigrants, focusing not only on unemployment status but also on real household income. Using panel data from the German Socioeconomic Panel on around 33,000 individuals over the period 1992–2004 we find a robust negative relationship between real personal household income and self-declared concern about immigrants, both in levels and first differences. Both job loss and income reduction concerns about immigration. Our findings document an interesting interaction between economic variables and social attitudes which does not depend on economic growth per se but on its capacity to generate higher economic wellbeing at individual level, not only for unemployed people but also for those in employment, who may face a fall in real income during economic downturns.     

The new hosts: the case of Spain

The author examines recent changes in the characteristics of immigration in Spain. Aspects considered include migrant origin, social and demographic characteristics, economic activity, unemployment, age structure, and educational level. The extent of illegal immigration is also discussed.     

Gruppenbedrohung oder Kontakt?

International-comparative research shows a positive relationship between the proportion of ??culturally distant?? foreigners and the extent of prejudice in countries. Contrary to these international results, there seems to be no positive relationship between the percentage of foreigners and prejudice in German districts. However, German studies do not discriminate between countries of origin to capture the relative size of culturally distant foreigners though this has shown to be important in international research. Additionally, the impact of the economic situation in a district has not yet been analyzed. This article considers the relative size of the culturally distant minority as well as economic indicators at the district level. Multilevel analyses are performed using the German General Social Survey (ALLBUS) and official statistics on the size of non-EU 15-nationals and the unemployment rate at level of districts. The analyses show that 1) prejudice diminishes with the relative size of non-EU 15-nationals and only increases after the relative size exceeds a high level, 2) the unemployment share has no effect on prejudice, 3) the impact of the relative size of non-EU 15-foreigners is mediated by interethnic contact, which in turn reduces prejudice, 4) the higher extent of prejudice in East Germany results from lower interethnic contacts and not from the higher unemployment share. The results of the analyses support contact theory and are not in line with group threat theories favoured by international comparative studies.     

The Effect of Unemployment Duration on National Suicide Rates: A Time Series Analysis, 1948–1982

Abstract

Periods of increasing unemployment are associated with increases in suicide rates. Unemployment increases suicide among laid off persons, new entrants, reentrants to the labor market, and groups indirectly affected—the underemployed, those fearing unemployment, the families of the unemployed, and even those suffering from falling real wages, a condition endemic in major recessions. The present investigation deals with a neglected unemployment measure: the duration of unemployment, a condition known to be critical to the generation of extreme behavior such as suicide. Controls are introduced from alternative perspectives on the problem including the incidence of divorce. The data analyzed refer to yearly measures of the variables over a 31 year period. The results of a Cochrane-Orcutt iterative regression analysis indicate that the greater the duration of unemployment the greater the suicide rate. Using ex post forecasting techniques it is estimated that increases in unemployment during the Reagan administration have been associated with at least 929 additional deaths from suicide. The duration of unemployment increases suicide rates for both males and females. The model explains between 59 and 88 percent of the variance in suicide.     

The Flag or the Pocketbook: To What are Immigrants a Threat

An increasing number of immigrants and rising unemployment rates are widely thought to contribute to the electoral success of extreme right parties in Western Europe. However, no study explicitly posits the causal mechanism that links the aggregate level factors of immigration and unemployment to the electoral success of extreme right parties, and systematically analyzes whether and how this mechanism works. Thus, the causal connection between immigration, unemployment and extreme right success remains at best ambiguous. I argue that the causal mechanism linking immigration and unemployment to extreme right electoral performance is the development of anti‐immigrant attitudes at the individual level. In this paper, I examine how unemployment and immigration affect individuals’ attitudes toward immigrants. This examination furthers our understanding of the actual dynamics of how unemployment and immigration influences the electoral success of extreme right parties. I find that greater unemployment rates increase the probability that an individual will have an anti‐immigrant attitude only when immigration is already at a high level. Similarly, increasing immigration alone does not always increase the probability that an individual will have an anti‐immigrant attitude.     

Does the Association between Religiosity and Substance Use Vary between Adolescence and Early Adulthood?

The present study examines whether the association between substance use and two dimensions of religiosity—institutional and personal—changes as individuals transition from adolescence to early adulthood. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult (Add) Health, logistic regression models with interaction terms were run to test the hypothesis that the association between an individual's religiosity and his or her level of substance use is stronger during early adulthood compared to adolescence. This hypothesis is based on the observation that the shared family environment largely explains the association between religiosity and substance use during adolescence, while individual‐level characteristics largely explain this association during early adulthood. Overall, my findings support the research hypothesis, but only for the association between institutional religiosity and stigmatized types of substance use (smoking and marijuana use). This study highlights the fact that studies exploring the association between religiosity and substance use should consider potential variation between life stages.     

Moral Autonomy and Social-Political Activism among the Faculty and Staff of a West Coast University

In multivariate analysis, moral autonomy contributed to the explained variance for participation in politically Leftist social movements. On the bivariate level, "world view" variables besides moral autonomy were also related to social movement participation: (1) authoritarianism, (2) dogmatism, (3) efficacy, and (4) religiosity. In multivariate analysis, the effects of all the explanatory variables except moral autonomy almost entirely disappeared. Even after the addition of the subjects' general political ideology, multivariate effects of moral autonomy remained.     

Immigration Policies and the Factors of Migration from Developing Countries to South Korea: An Empirical Analysis

This study examines the impacts of immigration policies adopted by the Korean government, vis‐a‐vis other economic, social, demographic, and political factors, on labour migration from developing countries to South Korea using a modified gravity model. The model is extended to marriage‐related migrants to gain insights on marriage migration. The positive results in three out of the five immigration policies examined affirm that liberal policies are associated with increased migration, especially for preferred groups like ethnic Koreans, marriage migrants, and professionals. The positive effects of “push” factors such as population, unemployment, and inflation are generally similar to their effects on migration to the US, Canada, Germany, and the UK despite its more rapid transition from a migrant‐sending into a migrant‐receiving country. Political terror's non‐significance may be due to South Korea's limited asylum policy. Finally, the results of the extended model imply that marriage migration share plenty of similarities with labour migration.     

Demographic,organizational and economic determinants of work satisfaction: An assessment of work attitudes of females in academic settings

Using a sample of females employed in nonindustrial settings, a model of work satisfaction was proposed and tested using nonlinear iterative partial least squares (PLS). Included in the final model were three demographic variables (age, hierarchical level, and education); two organizational variables (routinization and size); and two economic variables (objective and perceptual measures of opportunity). Positive relationships were observed between age and work satisfaction and hierarchical level and work satisfaction. An inverse relationship between education and work satisfaction was detected also. Both of the organizational variables were negatively correlated with work attitudes. Objective measures of opportunity (e.g., the unemployment rate) were negatively related to perceived opportunity, and perceived opportunity was inversely related to work satisfaction. The model explained almost 33% of the variance in job satisfaction, although the objective measures of opportunity accounted for less than 2% of the variance in perceived opportunity. The best predictor of work attitudes was routinization. Perceived opportunity and size were the second and third best predictors, respectively. The implications of this research for organizational theorists and managers are discussed.     

The shaping of Australia's immigration and refugee policy

Since 1945, the objectives of Australia's immigration policy have been based at one time or another on security, self‐sufficiency, labour market considerations, economic growth, homogeneity, population building and social and humanitarian considerations. The scale of immigration has been influenced by the level of unemployment, general economic conditions prevailing at the time, the political party in government, the lobbying power of prospective interest groups, public perception and receptiveness, and foreign policy considerations. Australia's refugee policy (including intake), which was only formalized in 1977, has been determined by the resettlement needs around the world, foreign policy considerations and domestic politics.     

An exploration of the impact of culture on the economy: an empirical study of unemployment

The role of culture in economic affairs was first recognized by Max Weber who attributed the rise of modern capitalism to the Protestant ethic. More recently, the contribution of cultural factors to economic success or failure in different countries or regions of the world has been documented. The present paper joins this effort by demonstrating the impact of culture on unemployment empirically. The national character traits of neuroticism and extraversion were added to a regression analysis of unemployment developed by Nickell (1998). The results showed that extraversion was significantly correlated with unemployment in 18 industrialized nations, and it also altered the original list of significant explanatory variables for national levels of unemployment.     

Lesbian,gay, and bisexual religiosity across the life span: Associations with group identification and identity salience

This study explores the intersection of sexual and religious identities in lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) individuals by looking at variables associated with religiosity in this community. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis was used to explore variables that are associated with religiosity in sexual minority individuals. Religious history, connection to the LGB community, and being a person of color were associated with higher levels of religiosity. Feeling that one’s LGB identity is an important part of their identity was associated with lower levels of religiosity. Implications for the LGB community are discussed.     

Immigration and unemployment in Australia

"This article is presented in two parts. The first contains a discussion of Australia's migration programme, its different categories and changes in intakes. It also deals with the contribution made by immigration to the size of the labour force.... The second part deals with the effect of immigration on the unemployment rate and concludes that its effect is negligible or, at best, slightly positive.... Against this background the paper discusses factors contributing to the employment and unemployment experience of migrants, for whom English language proficiency and the possession of recognized skills and qualifications are important in determining employability." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Cohabitation Transitions Among Low-income Parents: A Qualitative Investigation of Economic and Relational Motivations

At the intersection of the cohabitation and residential mobility literatures is an opportunity to better understand the factors that shape cohabitation choices for low-income couples. By investigating push and pull factors associated with cohabitation, this study aimed to identify linkages between cohabitation transitions and the broader socioeconomic context within which they occur. Collecting data from both members of low-income couples and carefully tracking all residential and cohabitation transitions made it possible to identify a wide range of push and pull factors that motivate couples to move. The findings suggest that cohabitation transitions were often motivated by economic necessity. Romantic partnerships, while important, were less frequently mentioned than other factors (i.e., interpersonal negotiations, finances, housing quality) in determining a couple’s living arrangements. These findings have important implications for understanding the complex relationship between economic and non-economic factors that shape romantic relationships.     

The effect of immigration on aggregate native unemployment: an across-city estimation

This study investigates the relationship between the rate of immigration into various cities in various years and the level and change in unemployment. In pooled regressions, immigration lagged one year does not show a statistically significant effect either by itself or when other lags are added. Individual regressions using the difference in unemployment rates over time show a slight, but statistically insignificant, positive displacement effect over two-year periods. The evidence indicates that there is little or no observed increase in aggregate native unemployment due to immigration, even in the relatively short run during which adjustment frictions should be most severe. We are grateful to Bryan Boulier, Charles Brown, Glen Cain, Robert Goldfarb, Allen Kelley, Mitchell Kellman, Wallace Oates, Albert Rees, and Edward Reubens for reading earlier drafts and generously giving us their criticism and ideas.     

The Global Welfare Economics of Immigration

We study the effect of immigration on global welfare. The world is modeled as consisting of two regions, South and North, the former populated by low-skill workers, and the latter by both low- and high-skill workers. Production in the North uses both labor inputs in a complementary way. A trade union in the North keeps the wage of low-skill workers above the Walrasian wage, generating unemployment of low-skill workers. Northern citizens fund unemployment benefits for workers through taxation. Immigration from South to North has two effects in the North: a mixed native-foreign working-class lowers union power, because of reduced solidarity among low-skill workers, and hence it lowers the mark-up on the Walrasian wage that the union is able to negotiate. It also lowers the solidarity between employed citizens and the unemployed (as the latter, now, consist in part of non-natives) and thus the unemployment benefit, set by a democratic process, falls. We calculate the optimal levels of immigration, from the viewpoint of an observer who maximizes global welfare, according to an egalitarian and a utilitarian social welfare function. We compare these levels to the open-borders-equilibrium level. We find that the optimal level of immigration for the cosmopolitan egalitarian is significantly less than the open-borders equilibrium level, while the optimal level for a global utilitiarian is significantly greater than the open-borders level.     

Determinants of Black Suburbanization: Regional and Suburban Size Category Patterns*

This study analyzes the movement of blacks to the suburbs of American metropolitan areas, using the framework developed by Taeuber and Taeuber (1965) for the analysis of racial transition in inner city neighborhoods. The data are consistent with their model and suggest that the rate of black population growth is a function not only of the characteristies of individual suburbs themselves, but also of the central cities of the metropolitan areas within which they are located. The units of analysis are all suburbs with populations of 10,000 or more in 1960 and 1970. Suburban size is a key characteristic because the independent variables affect black population growth quite differently in different size categories. While there are clear differences between southern and nonsouthern suburbs in average levels of the push and pull variables, as well as the rate at which the black suburban population grew in the 1960s, the effects of these variables on black suburban growth were the same in both regions.