Fourier-cosine method for pricing forward starting options with stochastic volatility and jumps

This article provides an efficient method for pricing forward starting options under stochastic volatility model with double exponential jumps. The forward characteristic function of the log asset price is derived and thereby forward starting options are well evaluated by Fourier-cosine technique. Based on adaptive simulated annealing algorithm, the model is calibrated to obtain the estimated parameters. Numerical results show that the pricing method is accurate and fast. Double exponential jumps have pronounced impacts on long-term forward starting options prices. Stochastic volatility model with double exponential jumps fits forward implied volatility smile pretty well in contrast to stochastic volatility model.     

Extended binomial AR(1) processes with generalized binomial thinning operator

Abstract

In this article, we introduce an extended binomial AR(1) model based on the generalized binomial thinning operator. This operator relaxes the independence assumption of the binomial thinning operator and contains dependent Bernoulli counting series. The new model contains the binomial AR(1) model as a particular case. Some probabilistic and statistical properties are explored. Estimators of the model parameters are derived by conditional maximum likelihood (CML), conditional least squares (CLS) and weighted conditional least squares (WCLS) methods. Some asymptotic properties and numerical results of the estimators are studied. The good performance of the new model is illustrated, among other competitive models in the literature, by an application to the monthly drunken driving counts.     

Estimation with truncated inverse binomial sampling

Consider truncated samples taken from an infinite population with a fixed uumber n of observations recorded. A randon number X of items must be sampled in order to observe after trunca-tion. adified maximun liicel.ihooa estimators of X (assumed un-'mown) and of the population parameters are develo~cd, and a computing scheme is given for the exponential distribution. On the basis of asymptotu ,operties, some estimators are singled out and compared with the usual maximum likelihood estimators.     

Monitoring correlated processes with binomial marginals

Few approaches for monitoring autocorrelated attribute data have been proposed in the literature. If the marginal process distribution is binomial, then the binomial AR(1) model as a realistic and well-interpretable process model may be adequate. Based on known and newly derived statistical properties of this model, we shall develop approaches to monitor a binomial AR(1) process, and investigate their performance in a simulation study. A case study demonstrates the applicability of the binomial AR(1) model and of the proposed control charts to problems from statistical process control.     

One mixed negative binomial distribution with application

In this paper we do some research on a three-parameter distribution which is called beta-negative binomial (BNB) distribution, a beta mixture of negative binomial (NB) distribution. The closed form and the factorial moment of the BNB distribution are derived. In addition, we present the recursion on the pdf of BNB stopped-sum distribution, and make stochastic comparison between BNB and NB distributions. Furthermore, we have shown that BNB distribution has heavier tail than NB distribution. The application of BNB distribution is carried out on one sample of insurance data. Based on the results, we have shown that the BNB provides a better fit compared to the Poisson and the NB for count data.     

LAN property for an ergodic diffusion with jumps

In this paper, we consider a multidimensional ergodic diffusion with jumps driven by a Brownian motion and a Poisson random measure associated with a compound Poisson process, whose drift coefficient depends on an unknown parameter. Considering the process discretely observed at high frequency, we derive the local asymptotic normality (LAN) property.     

Bivariate zero-inflated negative binomial regression model with applications

Count data often display excessive number of zero outcomes than are expected in the Poisson regression model. The zero-inflated Poisson regression model has been suggested to handle zero-inflated data, whereas the zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model has been fitted for zero-inflated data with additional overdispersion. For bivariate and zero-inflated cases, several regression models such as the bivariate zero-inflated Poisson (BZIP) and bivariate zero-inflated negative binomial (BZINB) have been considered. This paper introduces several forms of nested BZINB regression model which can be fitted to bivariate and zero-inflated count data. The mean–variance approach is used for comparing the BZIP and our forms of BZINB regression model in this study. A similar approach was also used by past researchers for defining several negative binomial and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models based on the appearance of linear and quadratic terms of the variance function. The nested BZINB regression models proposed in this study have several advantages; the likelihood ratio tests can be performed for choosing the best model, the models have flexible forms of marginal mean–variance relationship, the models can be fitted to bivariate zero-inflated count data with positive or negative correlations, and the models allow additional overdispersion of the two dependent variables.     

An extended exponentiated-G-negative binomial family with threshold effect

In this paper, we formulate a very flexible family of models which unifies most recent lifetime distributions. The main idea is to obtain a cumulative distribution function to transform the baseline distribution with an activation mechanism characterized by a latent threshold variable. The new family has a strong biological interpretation from the competitive risks point of view and the Box–Cox transformation provides an elegant manner to interpret the effect on the baseline distribution to obtain this alternative model. Several structural properties of the new model are investigated. A Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure is developed to illustrate with a real data the usefulness of the proposed family.     

Estimation in zero-inflated binomial regression with missing covariates

We investigate inverse-probability-weighted (IPW) maximum likelihood estimation in zero-inflated binomial regression with missing-at-random covariates. Large sample properties (consistency, asymptotic normality) of the IPW estimator are established. Finite sample properties are assessed via simulations. The methodology is illustrated on a real data set.     

A transient analysis of Markov fluid models with jumps

In this paper, we consider Markov fluid models with jumps which are useful for e.g. insurance risk modeling and the performance analysis of high-speed data networks. Recently, Ahn and Ramaswami [Ahn, S. & Ramaswami, V. (2004). Transient analysis of fluid flow models via stochastic coupling to a queue. Stochastic Models, 20 (1) 71–101] provided a transient analysis of the Markov modulated fluid flow model using stochastic coupling to a queueing model. Here we extend their results and provide a transient analysis of Markov fluid models with jumps. We also present some numerical examples.     

Maximum likelihood estimation for reflected Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with jumps

In this paper, we investigate the maximum likelihood estimation for the reflected Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with jumps based on continuous observations. We derive likelihood functions by using semimartingale theory. From this we get explicit formulas for estimators. The strong consistence and asymptotic normality of estimators are proved by using the method of stochastic integration.     

A model with long-term survivors: negative binomial Birnbaum-Saunders

Abstract

We propose a cure rate survival model by assuming that the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution and the time to the event of interest has the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. Further, the new model includes as special cases some well-known cure rate models published recently. We consider a frequentist analysis for parameter estimation of the negative binomial Birnbaum-Saunders model with cure rate. Then, we derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. We illustrate the usefulness of the proposed model in the analysis of a real data set from the medical area.     

Statistical inference for two Markov binomial models with applications

Disturbance models, involved in Engineering Process Control (EPC) and Statistical Process Control (SPC), take into consideration an additional parameter, the probability of a jump in the process parameter in any time period. Corrective actions are necessary to bring the process back on target. In a tuning procedure, one can deal with permanent corrective actions (settings), or with provisional ones (adjustments). Tuning r machines can be modeled through some binomial Markov chains, with the transition matrix depending on the probability that a disturbance occurs. Using two such models, we construct consistent estimators for the probability that a disturbance occurs at any period of time.     

Empirical bayes estimation of binomial parameter with symmetric priors

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the binomial parameter via the nonparametric empirical Bayes approach. This estimation problem has the feature that estimators which are asymptotically optimal in the usual empirical Bayes sense do not exist (Robbins (1958, 1964)), However, as pointed out by Liang (1934) and Gupta and Liang (1988), it is possible to construct asymptotically optimal empirical Bayes estimators if the unknown prior is symmetric about the point 1/2, In this paper, assuming symmetric priors a monotone empirical Bayes estimator is constructed by using the isotonic regression method. This estimator is asymptotically optimal in the usual empirical Bayes sense. The corresponding rate of convergence is investigated and shown to be of order n^-1, where n is the number of past observations at hand.     

Subject-specific odds ratios in binomial GLMMs with continuous response

In a regression context, the dichotomization of a continuous outcome variable is often motivated by the need to express results in terms of the odds ratio, as a measure of association between the response and one or more risk factors. Starting from the recent work of Moser and Coombs (Stat Med 23:1843–1860, 2004) in this article we explore in a mixed model framework the possibility of obtaining odds ratio estimates from a regression linear model without the need of dichotomizing the response variable. It is shown that the odds ratio estimators derived from a linear mixed model outperform those from a binomial generalized linear mixed model, especially when the data exhibit high levels of heterogeneity.     

Analysis of all-zero binomial outcomes with borderline and equilibrium priors

This article is concerned with the analysis of a random sample from a binomial distribution when all the outcomes are zero (or unity). We discuss how elicitation of the prior can be reduced to asking the expert whether (and which of) the so-called borderline or equilibrium priors are plausible.     

Mixture formulations of a bivariate negative binomial distribution with applications

This paper considers further mixture formulations of the bivariate negative binomial (BNB) distribution of Edwards and Gurland (1961) and Subrahmaniam (1966). These formulations and some known ones are applied (1) to obtain a bivariate generalized negative binomial (BGNB) distribution of Bhattacharya (1966), (2) to establish a connection between the accident-proneness models given by the BNB, BGNB and Bhattacharya's bivariate distributions, and (3) to compute the grade correlation and distribution function of the Wicksell-Kibble bivariate gamma distribution.     

Estimating the negative binomial dispersion parameter with highly stratified surveys

We investigate several estimators of the negative binomial (NB) dispersion parameter for highly stratified count data for which the statistical model has a separate mean parameter for each stratum. If the number of samples per stratum is small then the model is highly parameterized and the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the NB dispersion parameter can be biased and inefficient. Some of the estimators we investigate include adjustments for the number of mean parameters to reduce bias. We extend other estimators that were developed for the iid case, to reduce bias when there are many mean parameters. We demonstrate using simulations that an adjusted double extended quasi-likelihood estimator we proposed gives much improved estimates compared to the MLE. Adjusted extended quasi-likelihood and adjusted maximum likelihood estimators also give much-improved results. We illustrate the various estimators with stratified random bottom trawl survey data for cod (Gadus morhua) off the south coast of Newfoundland, Canada.     

Monitoring of zero-inflated binomial processes with a DEWMA control chart

Control charts are widely used for monitoring quality characteristics of high-yield processes. In such processes where a large number of zero observations exists in count data, the zero-inflated binomial (ZIB) models are more appropriate than the ordinary binomial models. In ZIB models, random shocks occur with probability θ, and upon the occurrence of random shocks, the number of non-conforming items in a sample of size n follows the binomial distribution with proportion p. In the present article, we study in more detail the exponentially weighted moving average control chart based on ZIB distribution (ZIB-EWMA) and we also propose a new control chart based on the double exponentially weighted moving average statistic for monitoring ZIB data (ZIB-DEWMA). The two control charts are studied in detecting upward shifts in θ or p individually, as well as in both parameters simultaneously. Through a simulation study, we compare the performance of the proposed chart with the ZIB-Shewhart, ZIB-EWMA and ZIB-CUSUM charts. Finally, an illustrative example is also presented to display the practical application of the ZIB charts.     

The relationship between double-exponential families and extended quasi-likelihood families, with application to modelling Geissler's human sex ratio data

The human sex ratio data, collected in Saxony in the 19th century by Geissler, are reanalysed by joint modelling of the mean and dispersion. Extended quasi-likelihood and the unnormalized double-exponential family are shown to lead to identical inference. The use of the unnormalized form is discussed. The relationship between multinomial and Poisson models is studied for overdispersed data.