对外直接投资、技术创新与经济增长的传导路径研究

本文选取了2003-2013年中国25个省市的面板数据,基于有向无环图方法对对外直接投资、技术创新与经济增长三者之间的影响机制进行了动态分析,在此基础上提炼出了对外直接投资、技术创新和经济增长之间的三条传导路径:①对外直接投资对经济增长具有直接作用效应,它显著且直接促进了经济增长.②对外直接投资能够通过逆向技术溢出效应实现技术创新成果的增加,进而间接促进了经济增长.③对外直接投资能够通过竞争效应带动研发经费的增加,进而间接促进了经济增长.     

中国财政性教育支出与经济增长关系研究

文章通过建立VAR模型,运用脉冲响应分析和方差分解实证分析了我国教育财政投入与经济增长之间的关系,检验结果表明我国教育投资支出的增加和经济增长之间存在长期的协整关系,并且国内生产总值的增长是引起教育投资增加的granger原因,教育投资支出仍然对GDP变化有一定的影响作用.经济总量的增长会给教育投资支出带来同向的冲击,经济增长对教育投资支出的冲击具有明显的促进作用和较长期的持续影响效应.但是教育投资支出的增加对经济增长的冲击影响较弱,我国教育投资利用率低,教育不公平现象导致的人力资本质量偏低,由此导致教育投资支出对经济增长的带动效应还未充分发挥出来.     

消费、投资是我国经济快速增长的原动力

近年来,我国经济在全球经济持续低迷的国际环境下依然保持了持续稳定的增长,甚至有中国经济“一枝独秀”之说。那么,是什么带动了我国经济的长期增长?作者认为居民的消费和投资是使我国国民生产总值持续增长的根本原因。本文旨在从动态经济学角度建立误差修正模型,说明GDP、消费和投资之间的动态协整关系,并提出扩大内需、多渠道增加投资的政策建议。     

外商直接投资、人力资本与经济增长关系研究

文章根据1989-2013年我国东部11个省份的统计数据,建立Panel-Data模型,运用固定效应分析方法,研究了外商直接投资对我国东部省份经济增长的影响,并对数据进行一定的处理后进一步回归分析得到更切实际的结果.实证结果表明:FDI本身并未给经济增长带来多大的益处,它需要与人力资本相结合,才能促进经济的增长.同时国内投资和政府支出促进了FDI对经济增长的带动作用.     

科技服务业经济带动效应测算

基于非竞争型投入产出局部闭模型,文章对部门的关联效应测算模型进行了改进,并构建了部门对消费和就业带动效应的测算模型,从经济内循环发展视角测算了科技服务业的经济带动效应。结果表明:科技服务业在供给侧和需求侧两个方向上对其他部门的带动效应呈增长趋势,尤其是前向带动效应增长速度较快;科技服务业对居民消费的带动效应较大,但对就业的带动效应较小,近年来的带动效应趋势显示,科技服务业单位投资对居民消费增加的带动能力逐渐增强。增加科技服务业的投资和提升科技服务业产品的行业认同度,将有助于激发各部门增长的新动能、加速经济的内循环发展。     

投资过快增长的钱来自哪里?

今年以来,国民经济继续保持平稳较快发展的态势,在价格较低上涨的同时,经济增长达到10%以上,但也出现了一些值得关注的问题,突出表现在固定资产投资增长过快。固定资产投资高速增长今年以来,我国固定资产投资在连续前几年高增长的基础上,继续呈现高速增长势头。一季度,国内生产总值增长10.3%,全社会投资增长27.7%,资本形成总额对经济增长的贡献率达43.1%,同比上升20.9个百分点,拉动经济增长4.4个百分点,经济增长对投资的依赖性显著增大。固定资产投资的适度增长,是带动经济增长、财政收入增加、就业规模扩大的重要手段。但增长过快会造成经…     

对我国固定资产投资方式转变的思考

 固定资产投资作为带动经济增长的重要因素，是经济增长方式转变的一项重要内容。立足经济增长方式转变这个大背景，对我国固定资产投资方式进行回顾和反思，并探索实现投资方式的目标及其外部环境，具有重要的现实意义。     

中国经济增长的经济计量分析

十一届三中全会以来 ,我国经济实现了GDP年均增长率接近 10 %的高增长 ,其中有10年的 GDP增长率超过了 10 %。在这 2 0年中 ,中国经济的增长主要由投资需求的扩张、消费需求的增长以及进出口额的扩大带动的 ,本文仅从投资需求和消费需求两方面进行分析。一、改革开放以来 ,消费和投资的发展状况1.消费需求的发展状况改革开放以来 ,消费对经济增长的贡献率基本都处在 6 0 %左右的水平 ,消费需求已经成为中国宏观经济波动的一个重要变量。中国拥有世界上最大的潜在消费市场 ,这是中国未来经济增长保持持续、高速状态的基本依托点。到目前为…     

西部大开发投资导向中的问题与对策研究

西部地区目前的经济增长主要是由国家和地方的财政带动的,而并不是由于各地区自身经济增长能力上升的结果.作为反映一个地区经济能力的指标--固定资产投资已经向我们展示了这种情况,虽然近几年西部地区固定资产投资有了明显的提高,但通过比较可以发现,这种增长很大程度是由政府的投入造成的,在我国加入WTO以及经济日益市场化的条件下,这种政府部门的大量投资很难长期持续下去,我们有必要对目前的投资进行深入的反思,在此,本文将尝试对以下问题进行探讨:目前的西部投资模式中主要存在什么问题?为了实现西部地区的自我持续增长,我们应该如何引导目前的西部投资?是继续目前的模式还是寻找新的出路?     

试论杭州桐庐县固定资产投资与经济发展的关系

近年来,桐庐县的固定资产投资呈现快速增长的态势,呈现出三大投资领域带动全社会投资快速增长、投资向制造业集中等特点,经济增长则呈现出块状经济特点明显、传统行业外向度高等特点.分析认为投资是经济增长的主要动力,投资是经济结构调整的主要力量,建议注意投资效果的递减现象,制定合理的投入产出考核体系,建立投资效果的长效机制等.     

Automatic repeated-loess decomposition of data consisting of sums of oscillatory curves

Repeated loess is a nonparametric procedure that uses progressive smoothing and differencing to decompose data consisting of sums of curves. Smoothing is by locally weighted polynomial regression. Here the procedure was developed so that the decomposition into components was controlled automatically by the number of maxima in each component. The level of smoothing of each component was chosen to maximize the estimated probability of the observed number of maxima. No assumptions were made about the periodicity of components and only very weak assumptions about their shapes. The automatic procedure was applied to simulated data and to experimental data on human visual sensitivity to line orientation.An erratum to this article can be found at     

A change of basis matrix and integrals of power of cosine

This work is based on the idea of Rogers’ (1997) who suggested to use the inverse of a change of basis matrix to find the antiderivative of a function. We use properties of the Chebyshev polynomial of the first kind to derive our change of basis matrix. We give the explicit entries for its inverse and apply it to achieve a formula for integrating the power of cosine.     

Table of percentage points of ratios of linear combinations of order statistics of samples from exponential distributions

A form of the distribution function of ratios of linear combinations of order statistics of samples from an exponential distribution is given. From the distribution, tables of percentage points of the statistic for α = .05, .95, and n = 3(1)50, and for censoring up to five observations are presented. Use of the tables is made to find critical values of the most powerful scale and location invariant test of exponentiality against uniformity, and also to find critical values for a test of outliers in an exponential population.     

Nonparametric estimation of the mode of a distribution of random curves

Motivated by the need to develop meaningful empirical approximations to a 'typical' data value, we introduce methods for density and mode estimation when data are in the form of random curves. Our approach is based on finite dimensional approximations via generalized Fourier expansions on an empirically chosen basis. The mode estimation problem is reduced to a problem of kernel-type multivariate estimation from vector data and is solved using a new recursive algorithm for finding the empirical mode. The algorithm may be used as an aid to the identification of clusters in a set of data curves. Bootstrap methods are employed to select the bandwidth.     

Graphical evaluation of the adequacy of the method of unweighted means

A graphical technique is introduced to assess the adequacy of the method of unweighted means in providing approximate F -tests for an unbalanced random model. These tests are similar to those obtained under a balanced ANOVA. The proposed technique is simple and can easily be used to determine the effects of imbalance and values of the variance components on the adequacy of the approximation. The one-way and two-way random models are used to illustrate the proposed methodology. Extensions to higher-order models are also mentioned.     

Some Aspects of Probability of Correct Selections

In an experiment of treatment selections, random samples are drawn from k populations with ordered means. The probability that a sample statistic from the population with the highest mean turns out to be ranked the highest is referred to as the probability of correct selection (PCS). An inequality was proved previously that shows the monotonicity of PCS with respect to change in variance of the samples. In this article, we first present a more general form of the probability inequality to be used to investigate PCS. An extension of the monotonicity of PCS to order statistics is considered. We show that the PCS of the smallest order statistic preserves the monotonicity. Additionally, a normal approximation method is used to further generalize the theory. The general order statistics will not enjoy the same properties, as we reveal the obstacles, and a numerical counter example.     

On the determination of sizes of markets

The number of specialized dealers is of interest to market research institutes. They need those market sizes to project sample results to the whole population of shops. A basis to get to know the size of such a population is given by address registers. These registers contain also dead addresses and they are incorrect as they do not contain all addresses of existing shops. We present an approach to deal with these two kinds of errors and derive an estimator with negligible bias.     

Estimation of non-parametric regression in the analysis of the anti-inflammatory activity of diverse extracts of Sideritis foetens

SUMMARY A procedure to choose the best non-parametric estimator from among all nonparametric methods to fit regression curves is described. The methodology that is proposed prevents a lack of fit at the edges of the regression curve. The method is summed up in a few steps to facilitate its application by researchers. The procedure is applied to the determination of various curves that explain the anti-inflammatory activity of diverse extracts of Sideritis foetens and phenylbutazone against the time elapsed from the application of the agent which provokes the inflammation. Discussion shows that it is possible to obtain valid conclusions about the effects of the different products and to establish comparisons between them. Such conclusions are not possible when starting from the classical statistics methods usually employed in pharmacology.     

Unbiased estimation of the variance of the Graybill-Deal estimator of the common mean of several normal populations

An identity for the chi-squared distribution is used to derive an unbiased estimator of the variance of the familiar Graybill-Deal (1959) estimator of the common mean of several normal populations with possibly different unknown variances. This result appears to be new. It is observed that the unbiased estimator is a convergent series whose suitable truncation allows unbiased estimation up to any desired degree of accuracy.     

Calibration of the estimators of variance

This investigation suggests new techniques to calibrate estimators of variance. Estimators of the variance of simple mean, ratio and regression estimators under different sampling schemes are shown to be special cases of the proposed calibration techniques. The approach has more practical use due to recent advances in programming techniques and computational speed. An empirical study has been carried out to address the properties of these proposed strategies.