A Study Of Differential Fertility In Bombay

This study is based on special tabulations of the "order of pregnancy," as reported on the birth certificate, according to mother's age, locality, and religion and father's state of birth and duration of stay in Bombay, India. The sample consists of 50 percent of the births registered in 1960 in Bombay (where birth registration has a fairly high degree of completeness).Despite the limitations of statistical information on the complex of factors influencing fertility, it wasfound that three indicators derived from the 1961 census could numerically account for 51 percent of the total variance of the parity averages in the sections of Bombay. Overcrowding (which is an indicator of the level of living) had the strongest influence and accounted alone for 44 percent of the variance. Knowledge of thereligious patternraised thepercentage to49, whileinclusionof theilliteracy measure added only another two to this percentage.An assessment of fertility differences by religious groups, as well as by place of origin of the father, is then carried out. The data show significant differences among religious groups, with Moslems and Buddhists having the highest parity averages, followed by Hindus and Jains. A considerably lower level is shown by Christians, but the lowest parity level is that of the small Parsi community. Mothers whose husbands were born in the south and east were found to show the lowest parity level, while those who have north-born husbands showed the highest level.Finally, the data show consistent increase in age-standardized parity averages with increase of the duration of stay in Bombay. This pattern is observed for each of the three main geographic regions of origin. While this increase is difficult to explain on the basis of the available data, the fact that the pattern of parity differences among regions persists from one duration group to the next lends support to the conclusion that little assimilation seems to have been taking place.     

应用队列累计生育率分析我国生育水平变动趋势——兼与郭志刚教授讨论

本文对反映生育水平的两个基本指标——总和生育率和队列累计生育率进行分析,肯定多年来多个调查所得到的队列累计生育率的数据质量。尽管队列累计生育率反映的是"过去"而不是"当前"的实际生育水平,但历次调查所反映出的1990年代以来生育水平变化趋势是持续下降,并推断近几年的总和生育率已经下降到1.6以下。     

Marriage Patterns And Cumulative Fertility In West Malaysia: 1966–1967

Differentials in age at first marriage and being married more than once are discussed for a probability sample of West Malaysian currently married women 15-44 years of age. Both marriage ages and the incidence of multiple marriages vary greatly by race, place of current residence, wife's education, and husband's occupation; and the marriage variables are shown to have significant effects on the cumulative fertility of West Malaysian women. Early marriage leads to higher cumulative fertility and multiple marriages lead to lower cumulative fertility. Since the social groups with the highest proportions of early marriages are also those with the highest incidence of multiple marriages, the marriage variables explain some but not all of the variance in cumulative fertility for West Malaysian social groups. After adjustment for the effects of the marriage variables, rural Indian or Pakistani women still have the highest cumulative fertility and urban Chinese women with more than five years of schooling still have the lowest cumulative fertility.     

Determinants of rural-urban migration in Ghana

Abstract In the 39 years between the 1921 and 1960 censuses, urban population in Ghana multiplied by nine while the population of the whole country only trebled. The major factor in urban growth was rural-urban migration and the reproduction of the migrants. In 1963 a survey consisting of a systematic sample of households in 45 rural centres, randomly chosen in Local Authority Areas selected in accord with the regional rural population distribution, reconstituted the rural population so as to include current migrants in the towns as well as those remaining in rural areas. For analysis 13,748 respondents were divided into 14 categories by ruralurban migration behaviour. At the same time a survey of urban population provided a check on rural-urban migration data. study of the propensity to migrate from rural to urban areas shows that this increases with the closeness of the rural area to a large town, the population size of the rural centre, the economic well-being of the rural household, the number of relatives already in the urban area, the individual's level of education, larger family size and probably lower birth rank, as well as exhibiting specific age and sex patterns. It is shown that only a minor role is played by occupation, conjugal condition and number of dependants. Various interrelations between these factors are discussed, and attention is given to the special importance of education in partially or wholly determining some of the other factors. Census data are used to demonstrate the effect of rural-urban migration in concentrating persons with certain characteristics in the urban areas.     

中国的低生育水平及其影响因素

中国已经达到低生育水平,但对真实生育率却一直迷茫,人口规划与宣传口径与实际调查统计长期严重脱节.为了推进低生育水平研究,文章综述了低生育率类型的划分口径,并对若干生育率或出生漏报率的估计从方法上做了简要评论.借鉴国外低生育因素模型,文章对中国具体情况的研究发现:推迟生育对总和生育率具有显著压抑作用;而子女性别偏好对生育率的影响方式已经从多生转向性别导向的人工流产,因而也会显著降低生育率.文章还通过示意性测算表明,在低生育率研究中忽视其他抑制因素便会导致夸大出生漏报对生育率的影响.此外,文章还对近年人口流动对流出地和流入地乃至全国生育率的影响进行了分析.     

中国生育率转变的因素分析

阐述了中国生育率由传统的高出生率向近代的低出生率转变的原因,利用邦加兹生育率模式和多元回归分析分别对生育率转变的避孕、人工流产等生物人口学因素,以及都市人口比率、计划生育率等社会经济的因素进行了论述。     

The Determinants of Low Fertility in India

Using a conceptual framework focusing on factors that enhance or reduce fertility relative to desired family size (see Bongaarts 2001), we study fertility variation across time (1992–2006) and space (states) in India. Our empirical analyses use data from three waves of the Indian National Family Health Surveys. We find that this framework can account for a substantial portion of the variation in the total fertility rate (TFR) over time and across states. Our estimates focus attention on the critical components of contemporary Indian fertility, especially desired family size, unwanted fertility, son preference, and fertility postponement.     

中国妇女生育意愿与生育行为的差异及其影响因素

生育行为与生育意愿背离现象广泛存在。在发达国家,普遍的情况是实际生育率大大低于意愿生育率。发展中国家同样出现了生育行为与生育意愿背离的现象,但更多呈现出与发达国家相反的规律。中国也出现了生育行为与生育意愿背离,且实际高于意愿的情况。根据中国2001年全国生殖健康调查,基本完成生育的40~49岁妇女,其平均理想子女数为1.8,而平均实际生育子女数为2.2。利用2001年全国生殖健康调查数据,考察中国妇女生育行为与生育意愿背离的特征和影响因素,并考察个体背景(个人特征和社会经济背景)、生育政策和生育孩子情况(包括孩子的性别结构和存活状况)对生育意愿与生育行为的差异产生的影响。结果表明,这些因素都对生育意愿与生育行为的差异产生显著影响,但性别偏好是造成生育行为大于生育意愿的主要因素。     

Determinants of Natural Fertility in Rural Bangladesh reconsidered

Recent work by Sandra L. Huffman and her colleagues on the determinants of the length of amenorrhoea in Bangladesh is examined. It is shown that the data on which their work is based are contaminated by an important period effect: the 1974–75 famine in Bangladesh. The famine is described and its possible effects on Huffman's results examined. Huffman argues that breastfeeding behaviour is a more important factor in prolonging amenorrhoea among lactating women than is the mother's nutritional status. It is shown, however, that measures for the key variables used by Huffman - nutritional status, breastfeeding behaviour, and length of amenorrhoea - were all affected by the famine, and that the famine effects may have biased her findings. This does not necessarily mean that her hypothesis is wrong, but does suggest that it must be tested in unbiased data.     

The Proximate Determinants of Fertility: Sub-national Variations

In this paper changes in the relative importance of the proximate determinants of fertility, as modernization increases, are analysed Educational attainment and type of place of current residence are used as indicators of modernization. We concentrate on the three most important proximate variables: marriage, contraception and breastfeeding, and the analysis is performed on 29 World Fertility Survey countries. Bongaarts's multiplicative model is used for the analysis but the primary data tapes make it possible to construct more refined estimates of the three indices than is usually possible. The patterns of the indices among the two sets of socio-economic sub-groups are considered, as well as the interrelationships of the indices. Fertility differences among the sub-groups are also decomposed to assess the contribution of the separate proximate determinants to sub-group variations in fertility.     

Integrating Theory and Research on the Institutional Determinants of Fertility

This article links recent conceptual theories regarding the determinants of fertility with research designs appropriate for testing those theories. The most important causal factors in these theories--typically social or cultural institutions, occasionally emergent properties of the collective behavior of individuals--are properly conceptualized at the macro level. Research designs must therefore feature variation at this level and are at a minimum comparative. Noncomparative micro-level research designs will be misspecified from the standpoint of theory. A case is also made for continuing to incorporate the observation of individual-level behavior into any comprehensive research design. A focus on macro determinants of fertility does not imply that fertility outcomes are determined at the institutional level. Instead, there remains some process whereby systemic properties are translated into individual behaviors. Recommendations for comparative community-level studies are discussed. The multilevel analysis framework is reviewed as a paradigm for the conceptual features of cross-contextual analysis.     

Fertility Differentials In Early Postwar Malaya

During theearlypostwar years up to1957, the three main races in Malaya-Malays, Chinese, and Indians-experienced some differences in their levels of fertility. The lowest fertility was recorded among the Malays, with Chinese and Indian fertility about 5 percent and 10 percent higher, respectively. The comparatively low fertility of the Malays was owing to the exceptionally high rate of divorce, which meant unstable marriages and shorter periods of exposure to the risk of childbearing.A fairly well-defined pattern of state differences in fertility levels is found to exist in Malaya. Briefly, fertility was on the high side in the northern states of Johore, Malacca, and Negri Sembilan, and on the low side in the northern states of Penanq, Kelantan, Perlis, Kedah, and Trengganu, with the central states of Perak, Selangor, and Pahang in the intermediate position.The usual rural-urban fertility differentials are seen to prevail in Malaya as a whole and in the smaller units at state levels. Finally, the three main races registered higher fertility in rural areas, and the greatest gap between rural and urban rates prevailed among the Chinese.     

中国妇女生育率影响因素再研究--伊斯特林模型的实证分析

本文利用１９９７年全国人口与生殖健康调查数据，分析了影响生育率的社会经济因素，并通过伊斯特林模型将社会经济因素、中间变量和生育率相联系，探讨社会经济因素通过中间变量而影响生育率的途径与机制。伊斯特林模型在世界生育率调查的一些国家得到过应用，本文尝试将它应用到中国的数据中。     

Fertility In England: A Long-Term Perspective

This paper deals with two aspects of long-run fertility trends in England. First detailed and widely comparable fertility measures (Coale's indices) are reconstructed for England from the mid-sixteenth century to the present. Secondly the extent and nature of local and regional variation in those indices is discussed. The calculation of Coale's indices has never previously been attempted for so long a time span. Doing so requires the use of several different sources of information and a new method for combining them. The results provide significant insights into the development of the distinctive English demographic regime. The analysis of spatial patterns makes it apparent that local, rather than regional, variation was the main source of different fertility patterns in the nineteenth century. These patterns are obscured when counties or larger units are made the framework for analysis.     

Variations in Natural Fertility: The Effect of Lactation and Other Determinants

The analysis focuses on average waiting times to a fertile conception, as derived from non-contraceptive exposure in second and higher-order birth intervals. Life-table estimates are derived from exposure in the two-year periods preceding the survey, for 20 surveys in Africa, Asia and Latin America undertaken as part of the WFS programme. Differences in the waiting time to conception are examined as a function of the duration of lactation and post partum abstinence. In addition, the extent to which variations in waiting times are produced by country and regional effects, and effects due to age, duration of marriage and parity are examined. The analysis points out the dangers of deriving estimates of natural fertility from the sub-group of women who never breastfed.     

Consumer Confidence In Ghana And Its Implications For Survey-Based Economic Indicators In Africa

Social Indicators Research -     

山东省百年人口老龄化趋势前瞻

山东省是我国的人口大省,也是人口老龄化速度较快的省份。本文利用人口发展数学模型,得出五种预测方案,然后再根据山东省的实际形势确定了备选方案,分析了山东省百年人口老龄化总趋势,以及2005-2020年山东省人口老龄化发展特征,最后提出了相应的对策和建议。     

High Fertility and Children's Schooling in Ghana: Sex Differences in Parental Contributions and Educational Outcomes

This paper explores the linkages at the family level between sustained high fertility and children's schooling in Ghana, in the context of a constrained economic environment and rising school fees. The unique feature of the paper is its exploration of the operational significance of alternative definitions of “sib size” – the number of “same-mother” siblings and “same-father” siblings – in relation to enrolment, grade attainment, and school drop-out for boys and girls of primary and secondary school age. The analysis is based on the first wave of the Ghana Living Standards Measurement Survey (GLSS) data, collected in 1987–88. The results of the statistical analysis lead to the conclusion that the co-existence of high fertility, rising school costs, and economic reversals is having a negative impact on the education of girls, in terms of drop-out rates and grade attainment. Some of the costs of high fertility are borne by older siblings (particularly girls) rather than by parents, with the result that children from larger families experience greater inequality between themselves and their siblings by sex and birth order. Because fathers have more children on average than mothers, the inequality between their children appears to be even greater than between mothers' children, particularly given the importance of fathers' role in the payment of school fees. The paper concludes that the greatest cost for children in Ghana of sustained high fertility is likely to be the reinforcement of traditional sex roles, largely a product of high fertility in the past.