Replacement Migration Revisited: Simulations of the Effects of Selected Population and Labor Market Strategies for the Aging Europe, 2002–2052

This paper contains the selected results of research concerning the impact of international migration on population dynamics and labor force resources in 27 European countries over the 2002–2052 period. The study presents a set of simulations prepared under various assumptions on target population size and selected proxy indicators of population and labor force structures. The concept of “replacement migration’’ is used to illustrate the magnitude of the expected deficit and structural imbalance of the population and labor force in the first half of the 21st century. The results are the basis for making general recommendations for future population, migration, and labor market policy strategies in Europe, taking into account the long-term plausibility of the proposed solutions. It is argued that only a combination of policies aimed at increasing fertility and labor force participation, together with reasonable-level immigration, can help meet socioeconomic challenges posed by population aging.     

Long-term effects of family planning and other determinants of fertility on population and environment: agent-based modeling evidence from Wolong Nature Reserve,China

The practice of family planning has a long history, but its environmental implications have not often been considered. Using data from Wolong Nature Reserve for the conservation of the world-famous giant pandas in China, we employ a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate how family-planning and other fertility-related decisions may affect human population, household number, and panda habitat over time. Simulation results indicate that (1) population size has the shortest time lag in response to changes in family-planning decisions, and panda habitat has the longest time lag; (2) the amount of panda habitat is more sensitive to factors affecting number of households than those affecting population size; (3) although not large in quantity nor changing landscape fragmentation substantially, the associated changes in habitat are in good areas for the panda. This study offers a novel approach to studying long-term demographic and environmental effects of family-planning and fertility-related decisions across space.     

Household vulnerability and child labor: the effect of shocks,credit rationing,and insurance

In this paper, we use a unique data set for Guatemala to estimate the effect of idiosyncratic shocks and credit constrains on children’s labor supply and schooling decisions. We extend Rosenbaum and Rubin (J R Stat Soc B 45:212–218, 1983b) analysis to the case of a multinomial outcome by proposing an innovative sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of the estimates with respect to the presence of unobservables. The results show that credit rationing is an important determinant of school enrollment and children’s work. Exposure to negative shocks also strongly influences household decisions and pushes children to work, while access to coping mechanisms, like insurance, tends to increase education and to reduce child labor.     

Urban growth in China: past, prospect, and its impacts

Rapid growth and globalization of the domestic economy have dramatically accelerated urbanization in China, resulting in significant environmental impacts and challenges for sustainable development. Using a multistate model accounting for distributional aspects of age, sex, education, and migration in rural and urban regions, we estimate the magnitude of urbanization in China through 2030 and examine some major associated sustainability issues. Results indicate that: (1) for a range of assumptions, China’s urban population will nearly double from 2000 to 2030; (2) the labor force will constitute a larger share of total population in urban areas than rural due to internal migration of younger workers—this appears particularly true for the mega-urban metropolises of Beijing and Shanghai; (3) rural populations will experience more aging than urban; and (4) level of education among China’s rural labor force will remain low, which could pressure China’s industrial structural transition from an agricultural to a service-based economy.     

Relative Cohort Size,Relative Income,and Married Women's Labor Force Participation: United States, 1968–2010

Relative cohort size—the ratio of young adults to prime‐age adults—and relative income—the income of young adults relative to their material aspirations—have experienced substantial changes over the past 40 years. Results here show that changes in relative cohort size explain about 60 percent of the declines in women's starting wage—both relative and absolute—in 1968–82, and 97 percent of its increase in 1982–2001. Relative income is hypothesized to affect a number of behavioral choices by young adults, including marriage, childbearing, and female labor force participation, as young people strive to achieve their desired standard of living. Older family income—the denominator in a relative income variable—increased by 59 percent between 1968 and 2000, and then declined by 9 percent. Its changes explain 47 percent of the increase in the labor force participation of white married women in their first 15 years out of school between 1970 and 1990, and 38 percent of the increase in hours worked in the same period. The study makes use of individual‐level measures of labor force participation and employs the lagged income of older families in a woman's year‐state‐race‐education group to instrument parental income and hence material aspirations.     

农村地区外出务工潮对义务教育阶段辍学的影响

文章利用中国综合社会调查数据与县级主要社会经济统计资料,分析了20世纪80年代以来中国农村地区外出务工现象对义务教育阶段在校学生辍学的影响。研究发现,农村地区同龄人外出务工现象对义务教育阶段在校学生辍学具有吸引与示范作用。一个区县同龄人外出务工的比例越高,在校学生义务教育阶段辍学的可能性越高;与完成义务教育者相比,初中辍学者更有可能外出务工。与同龄人外出的影响不同,家人外出有助于降低农村中小学生辍学的风险,促进其接受较高的教育。     

Control of insecticide resistance in a field population of houseflies,Musca domestica, by releasing susceptible flies

Summary Susceptible houseflies,Musca domestica, were released at a waste disposal site to control insecticide resistance in a field housefly population. In the first experiment, a total of 163,000 pupae of the susceptible Takatsuki strain were released in October–November 1977. LD₅₀ values to fenitrothion and diazinon decreased to about one-sixth in April 1978, five months after the releases, of those before the releases. For the second experiment, a susceptible colony was derived by cross and backcross between a white-eyed substrain of the Takatsuki and a field colony. This susceptible colony consisted of whiteeyed flies with low activity and normal-eyed flies bearing no or one white eye gene. The results of large cage experiments suggested that the normal-eyed males of the susceptible colony had half the mating competitiveness of wild males. Approximately 31,000–46,000 susceptible pupae were used in each of five releases from October to November 1980. The population number of each sex, estimated by a mark-release-recapture method, increased from 12,000 in late September to 35,000–43,000 in middle November and then decreased to 5,000–8,000 in early December. The frequency of field-collected males bearing one white eye gene and those bearing one male determining factor, which were characteristics of the susceptible colony released, increased gradually during the period of releases. The susceptibility of the field population to fenitrothion and diazinon was examined five times in the period from September to December 1980. With time, the dosage-mortality regression gradually shifted towards that of the susceptible colony after starting the releases. LD₅₀ values to fenitrothion and diazinon decreased to about one-sixth and one-fifth, respectively, in June 1981, six months after the second series of susceptible fly releases, of those before the releases. Ratios of the wild flies to the released fiies were estimated to be between 4.7∶1 and 9.8∶1 in males and between 3.0∶1 and 3.9∶1 in females by taking the quality of the released colony and the population parameters of the field houseflies into consideration. Under several assumptions, the manner of resistant phenotype reduction was discussed, based on the dosage-mortality regressions and the ratios of released flies. These results showed that the releases of susceptible flies were successful in suppression of insecticide resistance in the field housefly population.     

Safety and Home–School Relations as Indicators of Children Well Being: Whose Perspective Counts?

Recent attention to children’s well being has generated research showing that safety and home–school relations are two of the most important indicators of children’s well being. Recent studies have also demonstrated the consistent differences in perspectives between children and teachers and between parents and teachers in regard to home–school relations and between children and parents in regard to children safety. This paper reports findings from an exploratory study, conducted as part of the “Strong Communities” initiative in South Carolina, comparing between the three perspectives of children, parents, and teachers in regard to children both home–school relations and safety. The findings show significant differences regarding almost all items between the three groups. For example, teachers felt school and the way to and back from school were safer for children than how the children themselves felt. However, other patterns were found with regard to home–school relations. The article concludes with a discussion of the apparent weight given to each of these perspectives, possible explanations for the gaps found and its practical implications for social indicators usage.     

Male-female differences in labor market outcomes during the early transition to market: The cases of Estonia and Slovenia

Changes in women's relative wages and employment are analyzed, using social security data from Slovenia (1987–1992) and a retrospective labor force survey in Estonia (1989–1994). Estonia adopted liberal labor market policies. Slovenia took an interventionist approach. Nevertheless, relative wages for women rose in both countries. Factors favoring women included: returns to human capital rose in transition, benefiting women; relative labor demand shifted toward predominantly female sectors; low-wage women had a disproportionate incentive to exit the labor market, especially in Estonia. However, women were less mobile across jobs in both countries, so men disproportionately filled new jobs in expanding sectors. Received: 27 November 1997/Accepted: 20 December 1998     

Is the German apprenticeship system a panacea for the U.S. labor market?

This paper explores the structure of incentives undergirding the German system of apprenticeship training. We first describe characteristics of the German labor market which may lead firms to accept part of the cost of general training, even in the face of worker turnover. We then compare labor market outcomes for apprentices in Germany and high school graduates in the United States. Apprentices in Germany occupy a similar position within the German wage structure as held by high school graduates in the United States labor market. Finally, we provide evidence that – in both countries – the problem of forming labor market bonds is particularly acute for minority youth. JEL classification: J24, J31, J60 Received: July 4, 1996 / Accepted February 4, 1997     

Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis

This paper develops a flexible framework for modeling population's role in economic growth by assessing and extending a rendering suggested by several Harvard economists. Our framework includes a ``productivity' model explaining output-per-worker growth and a ``translation' model translating that growth into per-capita terms. We specify a core economic model and several ``enriched' demographic variants that include dependency, size, and density. Regressions using a cross-country panel spanning the period 1960-1995 reveal that combined impacts of demographic change have accounted for approximately 20% of per capita output growth impacts, with larger shares in Asia and Europe. An earlier draft of this paper was presented at a conference on ``Population Change, Labor Market Transition and Economic Development in Asia,' Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan, 6–9 December 2002. A pre-publication version of this paper will be presented at a joint conference (by COE/JEPA) entitled ``Towards a new economic paradigm: Declining population growth, labor market transition and economic development under globalization,' held at the Awaji Yumebutai International Conference Center, Kobe, Japan, 17–19 December 2005. We have benefited from comments by Michelle Connolly, Andrew Mason, Pietro Peretto, Warren Sanderson, Alessandro Tarozzi, Jeffrey Williamson, and two anonymous referees. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Education Expansion, Educational Inequality, and Income Inequality: Evidence from Taiwan, 1976–2003

The expansion of higher education in Taiwan starting from the late 1980s has successfully raised the average level of education. Using the concept of the education Gini, we find that the educational inequality declined as average schooling rose during the period of 1976–2003. The impacts of a rising average schooling and a declining educational inequality are also tested empirically in this paper. The evidence supports that a higher level of average schooling will generate a lower income inequality. On the other hand, a lower educational inequality, as measured by education Gini coefficient, will also cause a lower income inequality. Skill-biased technological change that shifts the labor demand from unskilled workers toward skilled workers is the most likely cause for the rising income inequality in Taiwan. However, the trend of rising income inequality could be reversed due to possible future over-education and unemployment in the labor market.     

Age-structure,urbanization, and climate change in developed countries: revisiting STIRPAT for disaggregated population and consumption-related environmental impacts

We focus on three environmental impacts particularly influenced by population age-structure—carbon emissions from transport and residential energy and electricity consumption—as well as aggregate carbon emissions for a panel of developed countries, and take as our starting point the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) framework. Among our contributions is to further disaggregate population into three particularly key age groups: 20–34, 35–49, and 50–64, and by doing so demonstrate that population’s environmental impact differs considerably across age groups, with the older age groups (ones typically associated with larger households) actually exerting a negative influence. Furthermore, those age-specific population influences are different (in absolute and relative terms) for the different environmental impacts we analyze. Also, we find that urbanization, in developed countries, best measures access to a country’s power grid, and thus, is positively associated with energy consumption in the residential sector. Finally, we suggest some modeling and methodological improvements to the STIRPAT framework.     

Role of Parental Education in Schooling and Child Labour Decision: Urban India in the Last Decade

This paper uses household level data from National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) of India, the 55th (1999–2000) and the 61st (2004–05) rounds, to show that even with a significant wage incentive for schooling of urban children, the school drop out rate and child labour incidence are not small over this period. The parents’ level of education plays an important role in reducing this tendency; thus establishing the linkage between social and human capital outcomes in the family. We also look at the incidence of harmful and manual occupations among the child labour. Mother’s education appears as the more important factor in the recent round in curbing the manual work incidences; supporting earlier findings that women’s empowerment (one important indicator of which would be female educational level) is indeed becoming instrumental in increasing parental awareness. Using a pooled data set, we have also analysed the changes in the impact of parental education on these decisions between 1999–2000 and 2004–05.

Role of women in schooling and child labour decision: the case of urban boys in India

This paper uses household level data from National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) of India, the 55th round (1999–2000), to show that for urban male children there exists significant wage incentive for schooling, though school dropout rate and child labour incidence are not so small. The parents’ level of education plays an important role in reducing this tendency; thus establishing the linkage between social and human capital outcomes in the family. We also look at the incidence of harmful and manual occupations among the child labour. Mother’s education now appears as a very important factor in curbing these incidences; supporting earlier findings that women’s empowerment (one important indicator of which would be female educational level) is indeed instrumental in increasing parental awareness.     

流动人口外出对其家庭的影响

利用中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心2005年7月在四川南充的调查数据,对外出就业的流动人口及其家庭的情况等进行分析。调查结果显示,流动人口主要以单独或夫妻共同的形式外出,把孩子留给老家的父母抚养;他们大都会寄钱回家,这些收入对改善家庭的整体生活状况作用显著,在有家人外出的家庭中,对家人外出持支持态度的人数占据了绝对优势。但是,大量流动人口的外出也带来了一些负面影响,比如隔代抚养对留守儿童的教育不利;农村劳动力缺乏加重了留守成员的负担;以及农村社区贫富差距的扩大等。     

Children Living Without Their Fathers: Population Estimates and Indicators of Educational Well-being

This paper estimates the number of American children in grades K–12 who live without their biological fathers and examines the association of absent-father status with children’s well-being. The 2003 Parent and Family Involvement in Education Survey of the National Household Education Surveys Program (n = 12,426) shows that 28% percent of White students, 39% of Hispanic students, 69% of Black students, and 36% overall live without their fathers. In bivariate comparisons, absent-father status is associated with reduced well-being: worse health, lower academic achievement, worse educational experiences, and less parental involvement in school activities. When socio-economic factors are controlled, father-absence is associated with small deficits of well-being. The findings suggest that the conventional wisdom may exaggerate the detrimental effects of father absence.     

Who Stays? Who Goes? Selective Emigration Among the Foreign-Born

We investigate the level and selectivity of emigration from the United States among foreign-born adults. We use the CPS Matching Method (Van Hook et al. 2006) to estimate the probability of emigration among foreign-born adults aged 18–34, 35–64 and 65+ from 1996 to 2009 (N = 92,852). The results suggest higher levels of emigration than used in the production of official population estimates. Also, indicators of economic integration (home ownership, school enrollment, poverty) and social ties in the U.S. (citizenship, having young children, longer duration in the United States) deter emigration. Conversely, having connections with the sending society, such as living apart from a spouse, was associated with emigration, particularly among Mexican men. Health was least strongly related to emigration. Simulations suggest that selective emigration may alter the home ownership and marital status, but not health, composition of immigrant cohorts. The implications for public policy are discussed.     

Mother’s home time and the production of child quality

This paper deals with the effect of mother’s time spent out of the labor force, and presumably in the home, on the “production” of child quality, where child quality is measured by intelligence (IQ), level of schooling attained, and market earning power. The results indicate that mother’s home time is most effective in producing (male) child quality for mothers who have attained relatively high levels of schooling. The results suggest that education programs which devote equal school resources to all (male) children do not necessarily provide equal educational opportunity and that the influence of family background on economic success is indirect, operating through home investments in children.