Desired family size in Thailand: Are the responses meaningful?

Data for both rural and urban women in Thailand indicate that the large majority of respondents are able to provide numerical responses to questions on desired family size. Although there is evidence that some women tend to rationalize the number of children they have when stating the number they would want if they were recently married, the vast majority of respondents prefer a number which is different from the number of living children they had at the time of the interview. Women who had already reached or exceeded their desired number were almost universal in stating they wanted no additional children, whereas only a minority of women who had yet to reach their desired family size said they wanted no more children. Finally, the proportion of women who practiced family planning is substantially greater among women who had already achieved or exceeded their desired family size than among women who had fewer than their desired number. The results thus suggest that, in Thailand at least, responses to family size preferences need to be interpreted with caution but nevertheless can be of use to the population analyst.     

A note on synthethic cohort estimates of average desired family size

Abstract This note considers the problem of estimating average desired family size from parity-specific data on proportions wanting another child. Three procedures proposed in the literature are reviewed and shown to give seriously biased estimates, when women implement their fertility preferences. An alternative procedure is proposed which overcomes most of the deficiencies of previous methods. An example from Sri Lanka illustrates the fact that the differences among the methods may be quite substantial.     

The prediction of completed fertility

There has been considerable interest in the relation between familysize desires and completed fertility. Longitudinal data from the Princeton Fertility Study provide a unique opportunity to compare the number of children desired after the birth of a second child to the size of completed families. The average number of children desired by women after the birth of their second child predicts very well the average size of their completed families. The average family size desired at the first interview and average estimated completed family size some eight years later are identical for the total sample, and vary hardly at all within religious or education subgroups. One-third of the variance in the completed fertility of couples is "explained" by wife's family-size desires and the proportion of explained variance increases to two-fifths when we include the husband's first interview desires and the interval between marriage and second birth. Yet in spite of the relatively high correlation between desires and achievement, only 41 percent of these women achieved exactly the number of children they desired at the first interview, while 14 percent had two children more or fewer than originally desired. Nevertheless, data on contraceptive efficiency indicate that desires after the birth of the second child constitute meaningful goals in terms of which the respondents regulate their subsequent behavior-efficacy of contraceptive practice shows substantial improvement after the desired number has been achieved.     

Explaining son preference in rural India: the independent role of structural versus individual factors

Much research has been done on demographic manifestations of son preference, particularly girls’ excess mortality; however, there is less research that focuses on son preference itself. This paper analyzes the determinants of son preference in rural India. We separate the independent, relative effects of characteristics of individual women and their households, village opportunities for women and village development, and social norms. We look at both socioeconomic and sociocultural variables. Finally, we examine whether predictors of son preference differ by desired family size. Our data come from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) India, 1992–1993. We use an ordered logit model, with dummy variables for state of residence. Our analysis shows that women’s education, particularly at secondary and higher levels, is consistently and significantly associated with weaker son preference, regardless of desired family size. Once factors measuring social norms, such as marriage customs, caste and religion, are included, economic wealth and women’s employment at household or village levels are not significant. Media access remains significant, suggesting an influence of “modernizing” ideas. Among social factors, caste and religion are associated with son preference but, once state of residence is controlled for, marriage patterns and cultivation patterns are insignificant. The strength and significance for son preference of many determinants differs by desired family size. Our results suggest that policy makers seeking to influence son preference need to identify and target different policy levers to women in different fertility and social contexts, rather than try an approach of one size that fits all.     

On A Method for Studying Family Size Preferences

Demography - The concept of desired family size is widely accepted, and numerous studies have been undertaken to measure its level in certain population groups. The determination of desired family...     

Educational Differences in Desired Family Size and Attitudes Toward Childbearing in Latina Women

Attitudes toward childbearing and desired family size influence women's reproductive choices. This may be especially true in the Latina culture, where motherhood and large families are valued highly. To determine whether these attitudes differ by educational status, Latina women in an OB/GYN clinic (N=351) completed a survey assessing attitudes toward childbearing and desired family size. Attitudes of women with and without a high school education were compared. Respondents without a high school education desired a mean of 3.1 children, while those with a high school education desired a mean of 2.7. Women without a high school education endorsed more attitudes favoring large families. Among women without a high school education, those who wished to have a son to carry on the family name tended to desire larger families. Results suggest that the desire for large families among Latina women with low education may result from traditional cultural attitudes.     

Can spouses be trusted? A look at husband/wife proxy reports

This paper examines biases that may occur when models of couple behavior are estimated using one partner’s report of own and of spouse’s desired family size rather than independent reports obtained from both partners. When estimates of random measurement error are incorporated in a model of couple fertility expectations, proxy reports are valid indicators of spouse desires. In particular, there is little evidence that proxy reports are affected by systematic errors arising from projection of own beliefs onto the spouse. For desired family size, random measurement error in both proxy and self reports is of far greater concern than is systematic error.     

Fertility and desired fertility: Longitudinal evidence from Thailand

Summary The validity and usefulness of 'desired additional children' and 'ideal family size' as predictors of fertility are analysed in this paper on the basis of longitudinal survey data from Thailand. First, the extent of measurement error in these variables is considered, and it is concluded that the error variance and the true variance are of similar orders of magnitude. Secondly, the changes in attitudes subsequent to births and deaths of children are investigated. It is found that the number of additional children desired is decreased by births and increased by deaths, but less than would be expected if 'desired additional children' represented an unchanging target family size. 'Ideal family size' is almost unaffected by births and deaths. Thirdly, the contribution of attitudinal variables to behavioural models is examined. It is found that desired fertility is explained no better than fertility in a standard economic model. A birth function separating desired children from identifiable physiological factors as explanatory variables indicated that the former was just significant. A model of contraceptive acceptance also found desired fertility to be a significant determinant. Thus, desired fertility can be successfully integrated into behavioural models. But on the whole, its explanatory power was weak, and it was concluded that the independent use of this variable does not significantly improve on models which relate fertility to socio-economic variables directly.     

Comparison and fairness in family planning]

There are two kinds of comparison in family planning (FP) practice. First, people compare the number of children they have with their desired family size. Second, people compare their number of children with other's. The extent of their satisfaction from the comparison often depends on their expectation. And people's expectation about their family size may have an impact on the level of fertility. One task in a FP program is to regulate people's objects for comparison and to reduce the number of children they expect to have. But, changes in people's desired number of children are largely dependent upon the socio economic charges which can not be achieved in short time. Therefore, it would be more advisable to direct people to compare their fertility behavior with those of couples who have only one child, rather than those who have 3 or 4. Satisfaction with family size also comes from a feeling of fairness. People not only look at what they get, but also at what others get. Fairness and justice in FP program implementation is important. If those who violate local birth control policies and regulations are not properly punished, other people would feel that the situation is unfair and they would regret that they did not do the same. The pressure brought by over-population to socio-economic development has been gradually felt by most people. But, it is still difficult to have them strictly observe the present fertility regulation policy. If restrictions of various kinds are enforced and education and publicity are used, people will feel that they are being treated fairly. This will facilitate the promotion of the FP program.     

Desired family size and its determinants among urban Nigerian women: A two-stage analysis

This paper proposes and carries out a two-stage analysis of the determinants of desired family size, using data gathered from a sample of women in the city of Ilorin, Nigeria. The analysis first focuses on differences between women who report numerical family size desires and those who report nonnumerical desires. Findings suggest that there are important differences between these two groups, but there is little variation in the actual number reported by those expressing numerical desires. Implications of these findings for survey design are discussed. In particular, the practice of forcing numerical responses by instructing interviewers to probe when women report nonnumerical desires is questioned.     

The Determinants of Low Fertility in India

Using a conceptual framework focusing on factors that enhance or reduce fertility relative to desired family size (see Bongaarts 2001), we study fertility variation across time (1992–2006) and space (states) in India. Our empirical analyses use data from three waves of the Indian National Family Health Surveys. We find that this framework can account for a substantial portion of the variation in the total fertility rate (TFR) over time and across states. Our estimates focus attention on the critical components of contemporary Indian fertility, especially desired family size, unwanted fertility, son preference, and fertility postponement.     

The need for family planning

The purpose of this paper is to examine the evidence on the need for family planning. The available evidence on current levels of unmet need for contraceptives, fertility preferences, and the non-contraceptive benefits of family planning is reviewed. I argue that expansion of family planning programs is still needed. These programs provide couples with tools to reach their desired family size; can significantly impact maternal and child mortality by decreasing fertility and optimizing child spacing; and by decreasing fertility, slow population growth. It is therefore imperative to continue to expand the provision of family planning services.     

广东“80后”生育意愿及其影响因素研究

改革开放后出生的一代人的生育意愿和意愿生育数量将表现出与父辈们不同的特征。本文采用广东省人口和计划生育委员会支持的调研数据,并通过实证研究发现：个人受教育程度、家庭收入、户籍状况、家庭结构及财产状况等因素共同影响着初育年龄意愿、理想生育数和生育性别意愿。总体来看,教育程度与经济因素是影响“80后”生育意愿的主要因素。同时,家庭养老压力也在一定程度上影响到他们的生育意愿。     

Natural resource collection and desired family size: a longitudinal test of environment-population theories

Theories relating the changing environment to human fertility predict that declining natural resources may actually increase the demand for children. Unfortunately, most previous empirical studies have been limited to cross-sectional designs that limit our ability to understand links between processes that change over time. We take advantage of longitudinal measurement spanning more than a decade of change in the natural environment, household agricultural behaviors, and individual fertility preferences to reexamine this question. Using fixed effect models, we find that women experiencing increasing time required to collect firewood to heat and cook or fodder to feed animals (the dominant needs for natural resources in this setting) increased their desired family size, even as many other macro-level changes have reduced desired family size. In contrast to previous, cross-sectional studies, we find no evidence of such a relationship for men. Our findings regarding time spent collecting firewood are also new. These results support the “vicious circle” perspective and economic theories of fertility pointing to the value of children for household labor. This feedback from natural resource constraint to increased fertility is an important mechanism for understanding long-term environmental change.     

A computer model of family building based on expected values

A computerized probability model of family building is described. Called FERMOD, the model is designed to follow the changing distribution of children ever born and birth intervals of a large homogeneous population as it moves through the reproductive period. Use of the model presupposes assumptions about such factors as risks of fetal wastage, lengths of pregnancy, and postdelivery amenorrhea conditional to outcome of pregnancy, length of reproductive period, fecundability, desired family size, preferred birth spacing!, and effectiveness of contraception. Use of FERMOD is illustrated in a limited application to United States fertility. Relations to other models are briefly discussed.     

Attitudes toward family size and family planning in nairobi

In Nairobi, 352 married African adults, 152 men and 200 women, were interviewed on their attitudes toward family size and family planning. The respondents had, on the average, slightly less than three children at the time of interview and hoped to add slightly more than three children to this total. There was little difference in desired family size by sex.About one-half of both men and women had some knowledge of family planning methods, and there was a general interest (75 percent of the men and 90 percent of the women) in learning more. In addition, two out of every three men, and nine out of every ten women, approved of family planning, and even greater majorities of both sexes were willing to have the government of Kenya provide such services.In spite of their approval, however, only 13 percent of the men, and 2 percent of the women, had ever practiced family planning. These findings are broadly comparable to those found in other emerging nations and suggest that knowledge, interest, and approval generally precede use.     

Male sterilization as a contraceptive method in Canada an empirical study

Abstract In 1851-61, the crude birth rate in Canada was 45. In 1972, it was approximately 16. Not only have birth rates decreased but the average family size has declined from five or six children per family at the turn of the century to two or three children in the 1970'S. In addition, women are completing their childbearing at an earlier age. 50 years ago, it was not uncommon for a woman to have a child in her late thirties or early forties. To-day, this is a relatively rare event. In fact, it is estimated that approximately 80% of all families have the number of children desired before the woman is 30 years of age. This new demographic pattern creates an important and crucial situation for Canadian couples. At age 30, with all the desired children and 15 more years of potential childbearing ahead of them, what can they do to prevent the occurrence of additional pregnancies?     

中国已婚女性意愿生育数的影响因素分析

本文利用2004年中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）数据,分析了个人因素、家庭因素以及社会因素对中国已婚女性意愿生育数的影响。结果显示,个人因素如年龄、受教育程度、工作单位类型及月均收入水平对其意愿生育数的影响具有显著的统计学意义;社会因素如城乡、所在省份亦对意愿生育数有影响;但家庭因素,被调查者有无兄弟姐妹对其意愿生育数影响的统计学意义不显著。     

Labor force participation and family formation: A study of working mothers

Drawing upon a sample of 638 mothers aged 18 to 40, with at least some marital work experience, significant associations were found between the extent, kind, and timing of employment and a series of family formation variables. Generally lower fertility, longer first birth intervals, and earlier use of birth control were associated with the longest work durations, the highest status jobs, and work before the birth of the first child. The data failed, however, to differentiate desired family size.     

On the relation between economic status and family size preferences when status differentials in contraceptive instrumentalities are eliminated

Abstract In this paper an attempt is made to formalize the essential elements of a theory of reproductive motivation outlined by Judith Blake in a recent article. On the basis of the results of that exercise, it is argued that the theory, as it stands now, is not specific enough to 'predict' whether the affluent would choose to have fewer children than the poor, if contraceptive instrumentalities were to be equalized among the economic strata. It is also argued that the negative (though weak) association between ideal family size and economic status and the non-negative association between desired number of children and economic status, observed in survey data, are both consistent with the basic premisses of the theory under reference.