中国需求拉动型增长的动力变迁与方式转变

随着中国经济的快速增长,短缺经济转变为过剩经济,经济增长的动力也由主要依赖供给推动转变为日益依赖需求拉动.拉动经济增长的“三驾马车”的力量也在不断变化之中,力量的协调与否直接关系到经济增长的持续性.中国以投资和出口拉动的经济增长方式已持续数年,就中国所处的发展阶段而言,这具有一定的合理性.但中国近年来的经济增长有越来越依赖投资和出口拉动的趋势,消费率持续下降,“三驾马车”的力量分布出现了明显的失衡,削弱了中国经济增长的持续性,需要从多方面采取措施来恢复投资、消费和出口之间的协调.     

经济增长促进收入分配转型的中国式路径

库兹涅茨曲线表明,从传统农业产业向现代工业产业转变过程中,一国的经济增长与收入分配差距变化呈现一种"倒U"趋势.中国经济在改革开放后的三十余年里保持高速增长,但收入分配差距并没有达到"倒U曲线"的拐点,居民的收入差距还在扩大.是"倒U曲线"不符合中国的实际,还是中国的"倒U曲线"具有特殊性.借助于马克思生产与消费关系原理进行分析,可以发现中国经济持续高速增长之所以没有实现收入分配的转型主要决定于体制转型和转型方式这两个因素;而要实现中国经济增长促进收入分配转型必须改变初次分配中的劳动者地位,以及转变消费、投资和出口在拉动经济增长中的结构;为此还要有相应的政策予以大力支持.     

FDI在中国的对外贸易效应及作用研究

随着中国经济发展水平以及在世界经济格局中地位的不断提高,中国已成为发展中国家吸引FDI最多的国家,由FDI所产生的进口替代效应、进口创造效应和出口创造效应也体现得愈加明显.对FDI具体对中国进出口贸易结构及出口竞争力作用进行的实证分析也表明,随着中国经济发展水平以及在世界经济格局中地位的不断提高,FDI对中国工业制成品的进出口额有较明显的促进作用,而对初级产品的进出口作用不明显；FDI对劳动密集型产品竞争力的提高作用明显,并主要通过金融资源、丰富的劳动力资源和先进的技术与管理水平等渠道发挥这一促进作用.     

当前中国经济的重大转型

在复杂的国际经济形势下,中国的经济发展出现了很多新情况和新问题.中国改革开放已经进行了30年,应该认真回顾历史,总结经验,吸取教训,落实科学发展观,实现中国经济面临的三个方面的重大转型:一是经济发展由出口依赖型转向扩大内需型;二是经济增长由吃两个"红利"为主转向自主创新和结构调整;三是政府宏观调控由打压增速防过热转向保压结合防紧缩,以应对国内外经济形势的重大变化.     

中国经济可持续发展过程中的资源跨期约束

不可再生自然资源作为最重要的生产要素,具有极强的稀缺性和公共物品属性.随着中国经济的迅速崛起,发展与资源之间的矛盾日益凸显,并逐渐成为制约经济可持续发展的瓶颈.现阶段中国资源禀赋的特点是总量大、人均少、进口依存度过高.因此,通过市场机制和政府调节共同建立一种长效经济机制,促进资源的跨期优化配置,是实现经济可持续发展战略目标的必要保证.     

论提高农民消费水平是中国经济增长的根本动力

目前我国经济增长过分依赖出口和投资的拉动,消费对经济增长的拉动作用不足.而出口的拉动作用潜力有限,投资的拉动作用则需要消费来支撑,因此,消费需求不足尤其是农民消费需求不足就成为我国经济增长的最大症结.这种状况决定了提高农民消费水平应成为拉动我国经济增长的根本动力.而要提高农民消费水平.关键在于破解制约农民消费的"资金瓶颈"、"硬件瓶颈"和"软件瓶颈".     

经济体制改革:中国经济学发展的本土资源

本文以中国经济体制改革为基础,探索在这一基础上的中国经济学创新问题.通过分析中国经济体制改革成功背后蕴藏的巨大经济学资源.发现中国经济体制改革确是经济学发展的一个重要机遇,而且在中国经济体制改革的实践中确实具有发展经济学需要的丰富材料.同时也看到了这种经济学创新具有突出的世界性意义.     

出口产业与内需产业的平衡发展

关于出口产业:一无资源、二无技术、三无资本的南朝鲜经济要实现现代化,选择发展出口的政策,本来无可非议。然而出口只具有手段价值而不具备目的价值,目的价值在于满足内需,在于扩大和加强占国民生产总值70%的内需产业,扩大出口只具有有限的重要性。我们在金融、税制、汇率等     

大陆与澳门经济发展模式比较

中国大陆经济经历了连续30年的高速增长,创造了"中国奇迹".大陆经济的成功与其采取的独特经济发展模式或战略有关.这些模式可以概括为四个方面:增长优先、沿海先行、投资驱动和出口鼓励.澳门在过去30年中也是全世界增长最快的经济体之一.澳门根据本地的情况,主要采取了博彩业带动模式、服务业主导模式和外向型发展模式.澳门经济发展...     

资源型产业低碳转型的影响因素及作用机理分析

研究资源型产业低碳转型对于推动我国实现2030年碳减排行动目标以及积极应对中国经济新常态、加快产业低碳转型具有重要意义。文章探究了资源型产业低碳转型的驱动因素和阻碍因素,并构建了资源型产业低碳转型"驱动—阻碍"作用机制模型,最后提出促进资源型产业低碳转型的相应对策。     

论消费者剩余的产生对资源配置的影响

消费者剩余是马歇尔在面对欲望及其满足问题时为了更好地处理价格与效用之间的关系而提出来的一个概念。以此概念作为理论切入点,通过对消费者剩余产生原因的探讨以及相关理论分析,进而讨论消费者剩余的产生对资源配置的影响,提出市场配置资源方式下的资源损耗由两部分所组成:市场价格机制内的和游离于市场价格机制之外的或者说被货币所衡量出来的和没有被货币所衡量出来的。当市场价格机制中存在着游离于价格机制之外的效用损耗时,完全竞争的资源配置方式及其理论充当了资源加速消耗的发动机和加速器。     

The impact of social heterogeneity and commodity price shocks on civil conflicts

Do exogenous economic shocks promote civil conflicts directly? Do they affect all the societies alike? The current approach presents a large sample panel data evidence not only on the effect of commodity export price shocks on conflict incidence, rather than onsets, but also on the joint impact of both ethnic and religious polarization and fractionalization on political instability. In this regard, we find out that in ethnically polarized societies, the commodity export price shocks increase violence. Nonetheless, in ethnically and religiously fractionalized societies (as well as religiously polarized), the effect of commodity export price shocks on civil conflicts depends on the type of income shocks and category of commodity. These findings contribute to the existing literature by illuminating the compound effect of both income shocks and social diversity on intrastate conflicts.     

The Capitalization of Space and Cultural Resistance

中国的城市化建设正在飞速进行。与经济进步相伴随，出现了众多的问题，如大 城市中的交通拥堵、空气污染、资源浪费与匮乏并存等——这只是可见的表面问题。 从长远的角度看，在城市化过程中，空间的资本化使用导致了城市文化、城市样态、 自然环境等差异性的丧失，这将使人的存在更为物化、功能化与功利化。本文认为， 指导空间生产的价值观念是促使上述问题出现的根本原因；只有改变以往的以“技术 和资本增殖”为核心的消费社会的价值观念，建构新的“以人为本”的价值观念，才 能对抗空间生产的资本化洪流。

关键词: 空间生产?城市化?资本?价值观念

Urbanization is proceeding at full speed in China. Economic progress has been accompanied by enormous problems in our big cities, such as traffic congestion, air pollution, the coexistence of resource abuse and scarcity, etc.—and these are merely the problems visible on the surface. The capitalization of space in the course of urbanization has meant loss of diversity in urban culture and configuration and in the natural environment. In the long run, this will make human existence more objectified, functional and utilitarian. This paper argues that the fundamental reason for these problems lies in the value concepts guiding the production of space. Only when we abandon the existing values of consumer society, which revolve around “capital and technology appreciation,” and establish new values “putting people first” will we be able to withstand the mighty torrent of capitalized space production.     

资源禀赋会转化为制造业竞争力吗？--来自空间面板杜宾模型的经验证据

推动“中国制造2025”的实现是提高中国制造业国际竞争力的关键。以影响区域制造业竞争力的因素为视角,分别选取储量、产量进行资源禀赋双维测度,并在利用显性对比优度指数探析区域制造业竞争总体分布态势的基础上,通过引入FDI溢出、单位劳动力成本构建空间面板杜宾数据模型,对资源禀赋与制造业竞争力之间的动态关系及溢出响应进行了系统估计。结果表明：区域制造业竞争力提升过程中存在“资源诅咒”效应,并会扩散及影响周边地区制造业的发展;而在单位劳动力成本产生负向外溢效应的背景下, FDI正向溢出效应作用发挥有限,且难以有效弥补由于区域资源的开发利用不当造成的制造业竞争力不足的困境。实施行之有效的破解制造业“资源诅咒”措施迫在眉睫。     

Coexisting principles and logics of elder care: Help to self‐help and consumer‐oriented service?

Healthy and active ageing has become an ideal in Western societies. In the Nordic countries, this ideal has been supported through a policy of help to self‐help in elder care since the 1980s. However, reforms inspired by New Public Management (NPM) have introduced a new policy principle of consumer‐oriented service that stresses the wishes and priorities of older people. We have studied how these two principles are applied by care workers in Denmark. Is one principle or logic replacing the other, or do they coexist? Do they create tensions between professional knowledge and the autonomy of older people? Using neo‐institutional theory and feminist care theory, we analysed the articulation of the two policy principles in interviews and their logics in observations in four local authorities. We conclude that help to self‐help is the dominant principle, that it is deeply entrenched in the identity of the professional care worker and that it coexists with consumer‐oriented service and without major tensions in the logics identified in their practices.     

The wealth effect: A contemporary update to the age of affluence

At the end of World War II there was a great interest in estimation of reconversion prospects for the United States economy. A main question was: Would be the United States return to the conditions of the Great Depression of the 1930s or maintain a high level of employment and grow without inflation? Franco Modigliani and James Duesenberry independently proposed dynamic versions of the macroeconomic consumption function, and A.C. Pigou had recently suggested that the consumption function should include a term for real cash balances, a wealth effect which was relevant, given the accumulation of liquid assets during the austere consumer environment of the War. Also, from the original discussions of the mathematical models of the Keynesian system, there was consideration about the effects of the distribution of income on aggregate consumer spending. Those various lines of thought were discussed in a memorial conference for Franco Modigliani at the New School University in 2005. The present paper was on the memorial program, and examines the statistical content of the questions about reconversion prospects in the mid 1940s. It also extend the analysis through the rest of the 20th Century, with consideration of the macrodynamics of the early postwar period into the age of affluent consumer.     

Betting the farm on high food prices: A consumer based approach to agriculture protection

Our question is quite simple: If agriculture protectionism is a product of economic development, why is agriculture protected at such varying degrees by otherwise similarly developed countries? Previous attempts to fit agriculture into general models of trade policy formation have relied exclusively on producer demand for protection and merely assume the associated demand for lower prices that might come from consumers. Not surprisingly, these previous studies add only minimally to this strange phenomenon. Our method turns this approach on its head by modeling the political strategy of agriculture protection on the costs incurred by the consumer. Taking both producers and consumers into account more accurately reflects the intent of extant theoretical models of protectionism. Our results show that using the consumer as the dependent variable provides more robust results on common independent variables. Recent global events show that consumer disapproval of agriculture policies should not be underestimated by political scientists or politicians.     

出口退税政策效应研究

1994年我国税制改革后,按增值税暂行条例的规定,实行出口货物税率为零的优惠政策,亦即出口退税。实施出口退税政策是国际通行的做法,政策的初衷是鼓励出口,但客观产生了避免国际双重征税,体现国家税收主权独立,体现税收的公平与效率以及税收的国民待遇等政策效应。     

外商直接投资对广西出口竞争力影响的实证分析

通过外商直接投资对出口竞争力影响的效应分析,对广西FDI对出口竞争力进行了竞争实力与竞争潜力两方面的实证分析,即分别对国际市场占有率、出口促进、出口产品技术水平、TC指数、RCA指数、贸易创造指数、技术外溢效应等进行实证分析,提出了引入价值增值率更高的生产环节的外商投资,利用FDI培育内生技术能力的政策选择,形成贸易、外资与产业政策合力等对策建议,最大限度地利用FDI促进广西出口竞争力的发展。     

出口退税率的调整对我国钢铁出口的影响分析

我国是钢铁生产大国、贸易大国,同时面临着高投入、高排放等诸多问题。“十一五”期间,国家采取了调整出口退税率等措施来限制“两高一资”产品的出口。回顾我国钢铁行业1994年以来出口退税率的调整变化,运用计量经济学模型,采用月度数据分析2004年-2010年出口退税率的调整对我国钢铁行业出口的影响。研究显示,出口退税率的调整对我国钢铁出口量存在微小的长期正向影响,短期作用效果不显著;国外需求因素对钢铁出口的刺激作用最突出,无论在长期或短期影响都非常显著;汇率、价格因素对钢铁出口的刺激作用其次,只存在长期均衡关系。