The lambda model and “rule of thumb” consumers: An estimation problem in existing studies

Campbell and Mankiw's (1990) lambda model has frequently been used to estimate the fraction of rule of thumb consumers (i.e., consumers who do not smooth their consumption). However, the present note shows theoretically, as well as with a numerical illustration, that existing empirical applications of the lambda model imply a systematic underestimation of this fraction. The reason is that per capita values instead of aggregate values (which the model is designed for) are used.     

Evaluation in the community mental health centers program: A bold new reproach?

The Federal Community Mental Health Centers Program (CMHC)-from 1963 to 1981-was heralded as a revolution in mental health care. Championed by many, and severely criticized by others, the actual impact of the program on the nation's mental health remains unclear. The authorization to evaluate the CMHC Program came originally from congressional legislation (PL 90-174), and later from the policies and regulations of NIMH under a series of Federal laws, notably PL 94-63. From 1976-1980, two dominant evaluation strategies were prevalent: funds expended by NIMH each year for studies of CMHC services or program-wide evaluations, and a much larger expenditure by CMHCs to conduct their own, independent evaluations following federal guidelines. As the Center's Program was turned over to the states in the form of block grants (PL 97-35), a group of professionals involved with setting and carrying out federal CMHC evaluation policy of both varieties met in public forum to debate the impact of these two evaluation approaches. While some participants cited gains in evaluation technology and impact upon local management of CMHCs, others found the lack of a coordinated and systematic approach to evaluating the CMHC Program to have been an opportunity missed. The impact of CMHC evaluation efforts are also discussed in terms of their major contribution to the field of evaluation research as a whole.     

The Consequences of Parental Underestimation and Overestimation of Youth Exposure to Violence

This study investigated differences in parent and child estimates of the child's exposure to violence. Using data (N = 1,517) from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods, analyses related differences between parent and child reports of the child's exposure to violence to the child's psychosocial functioning. Most parents (66%) underestimated their children's exposure to violence. Further, parental underestimation was associated with the child's internalizing and externalizing problems and delinquent behaviors but parental overestimation was not. Family support partially mediated these associations. Parental underestimation of the child's exposure to violence, therefore, reflected lower levels of family support, which in turn led to more internalizing and externalizing problems and delinquency for the child.     

The roles of inflation and consumer sentiment in explaining Australian consumption and savings patterns

Qualitative and quantitative measures of inflation, unemployment and consumer sentiment are incorporated into traditional models of the allocation of consumers' income. Quarterly survey data collected by the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research are used. Both current and expected levels of variables are considered.Equations are estimated for expenditure on motor vehicles, household durabls and non-durable goods as well as for household saving. The non-traditional variables are found to be significant, although the traditional price and income variables still dominate. In several cases qualitative variables prove to be superior to their quantitative counterparts.     

Possible causes of tax evasion

Only a limited number of empirical investigations, into possible causes of tax evasion, have been carried out. Most of these have been conducted since 1970 and they have been carried out in countries other than Australia. Much of the published research was reviewed lo develop a set of hypotheses which were then tested with Australian data. The results of those tests are reported in this article. It appears that several things might influence taxpayer's behaviour and in Australia, the exchange indicator could be one of the important influences.     

An evaluation of school district guidance and counseling programs: Procedures and results

This evaluation examines the administrative history, staffing levels, and content of school district guidance and counseling activities. Case studies were made in a 50% random sample of a district's 45 elementary schools. Eight hundred teachers, parents, and students were interviewed. All school plans were reviewed. Five-year staffing patterns and staff changes were studied. All district staff with guidance and counseling responsibilities recorded characteristics of guidance and counseling contacts for 15 days. Schools with and without counselors were studied to estimate differences in who receives services and what is provided. Results show systematic differences in the level and kind of services provided secondary and elementary students. Approximately one-third of the schools studied had stable programs. Schools with stable programs provided a broader range of services and distributed them in a more equitable manner.     

How changes in price and salary affect economic satisfaction: Information integration models and inference processes

Preliminary studies demonstrated the interactive effects of changes in salary and inflation rate on feelings of personal satisfaction, and showed that the effects of price increases in different cost categories could he described by a weighted average model. Participants in the main study were presented with varying hypothetical economic situations which included salary changes (raises) as well as specific price changes. A ratio model was found to describe how raise levels and price increases were combined. The rationality of this model was discussed in terms of how variations in price and income would affect the amount of a given commodity that could he purchased. On some trials only partial information was presented. Low ratings of personal satisfaction were produced when information about raises was missing, and high ratings were produced when information about price increases was missing. These results were discussed in terms of inferences people make when a key source of information is missing.     

Statistical power of the social network autocorrelation model

The network autocorrelation model has become an increasingly popular tool for conducting social network analysis. More and more researchers, however, have documented evidence of a systematic negative bias in the estimation of the network effect (ρ). In this paper, we take a different approach to the problem by investigating conditions under which, despite the underestimation bias, a network effect can still be detected by the network autocorrelation model. Using simulations, we find that moderately-sized network effects (e.g., ρ = .3) are still often detectable in modest-sized networks (i.e., 40 or more nodes). Analyses reveal that statistical power is primarily a nonlinear function of network effect size (ρ) and network size (N), although both of these factors can interact with network density and network structure to impair power under certain rare conditions. We conclude by discussing implications of these findings and guidelines for users of the autocorrelation model.     

Counting Us Out: A Discussion of the OPCS Disability Surveys

This paper provides a summary of the main findings of the first two OPCS reports on disability and a critique of the methodology employed. Whilst the first report highlights the systematic underestimation of the prevalence of disability which was enshrined in previous government research, it should by no means be interpreted as providing the 'true' figure. Such a project is an impossible one, since 'disability' is a social construct, and definitions dependent upon the interests, intentions and presuppositions of those with the power to define. As far as the severity scales are concerned, a wholly spurious 'objectivity' is identified. The second report, on financial circumstances, does implicitly provide official recognition that disability causes poverty. Because of the research methods employed, however, it fails even to approach an adequate quantification of the financial disadvantages experienced by disabled people. A critical understanding of the deficiencies of the OPCS surveys, in terms both of overall approach and of method, can provide a salutary example of how not to research issues of disability.     

Improved decision making about suspected child maltreatment: Results of structuring the decision process

ORBA is a method that aims to improve decision making about suspected child maltreatment in Advice and Reporting Centres of Child Abuse and Neglect (ARCCAN). It structures the process of judging and deciding and makes it explicit by distinguishing separate steps, and by identifying the necessary information to consider and the judgments and decisions to be made in each step. In this study it was investigated whether decision making in ARCANNs has become more systematic and transparent, since the implementation of ORBA. The contents of 100 case records from 2010 were analyzed, after ORBA had been implemented in all agencies, to see to what extent these records contained relevant information, and to what extent process steps and rationales for decisions could be identified. This was compared with the contents of 60 records of three agencies from 2005, before ORBA was implemented. Analyses showed that in 2010 records more often contained relevant information and process steps that ORBA prescribes than in 2005. It was salient however that rationales for judgments and decisions were still often absent in 2010. While after ORBA's introduction the process has clearly become more systematic and more transparent, compared to 2005, more improvements are still called for, specifically in explicitly motivating decisions. Explanations and implications of our results are discussed.     

Evaluating a management and organization development effort in mental health agencies.

Although the use of management and organization development techniques in health and human service settings is increasing, there are few systematic studies of their effects. Those which do exist are problematic in many respects. An 18-month program incorporating both management and organization development is described along with the results of its evaluation, which were positive and well-utilized. A discussion of the methods employed, the problems encountered, and the outcomes obtained illustrates that these evaluation efforts are needed and can be useful to program evaluators involved in planned-change efforts.     

A behavioral model of the demand for consumer durables

It is argued that models of the demand for consumer durables would be strengthened by the introduction of a behavioral element reflecting the nature of the decision making process within the individual household. A possible behavioural model is described. It is suggested that this would consist of the following elements: general economic confidence of the consumer (derived from personal expectations and attitudes to the general economic situation): general durable purchasing orientation (including willingness to devote resources to durable purchasesand house moving expectations); specific product choice considerations (including orders of acquisition of new durables: the implicit depreciation of existing equipment; perceptions of the characteristics of new products; purchase expectations). Such a model is more extensive than that normally described by others working in this field. The interaction between the different variables is discussed. It is shown that all these elements can be estimated through regular surveys and so the model can be made operational for forecasting purposes. However, it needs to be recognised that there are also unexpected even as which will affect the outcome in individual circumstances and the nature of these is also considered.     

New ways of looking at management information systems in human service delivery

The functional aspects of management information systems (MIS's) in human-service delivery agencies are critically examined from the viewpoint of a behavioral systems analysis model. This model distinguishes between MIS as an information-gatherer and as a system to control agency behavior and administrative decision-making. The choice of a particular MIS involves the consideration of the agency 's informational objectives, the extent to which the MIS exerts control over the decision-making process, and its cost-effectiveness. The behavior-analytic approach to MIS requires an evaluation of the way in which the system affects the behavior of agency personnel and, ultimately the clients.     

A revised behavioral model of consumer durable demand

A general model of consumer demand for durable goods has recently been proposed by Pickering (1978,1981). Of particular note is the use of expectations of both personal financial and general economic conditions to capture the consumer's willingness to buy. However, it is argued first that these two expectations have Jointly interdependent rather than unique contributions to consumer confidence. In addition, it is proposed that the concept of expectations should be extended to specific product attributes as well. Pickering's model is subsequently revised to incorporate the conceptual modifications.     

A protective service system

This article presents the results of a small scale study of the protective service caseload of a mid-western metropolitan area. The basic characteristics of the caseload match the national picture presented by the American Humane Association's National Study on Child Abuse and Neglect. The present study focused on the degree to which “systematic” vs. “random” forces appear to be at work in the progress of cases through the system. The overall picture is of some systematic efforts to conduct the process of referrals to community agencies but of a great deal of “randomness” in the bureaucratic closing of cases. This is a major area of concern.     

Ecologically defining the mistreatment of adolescents

Ecologically defined, the problem of adolescent/family conflict for otherwise “normal” families is a reaction to crisis in the life cycle of the family. A family's success in weathering the crisis is indicated by their successful maturation to the next stage of the cycle; we can assume that in such cases the ratio of stress to coping ability was such that the family could integrate that stress. When conflict escalates to abuse and neglect, however, the indication is that stress has outstripped coping ability, and the implication is for stress-reducing intervention quite unlike the standard existing interventions in either the juvenile justice or child welfare systems, which negatively label family members, make them adversaries, fragment their coping capabilities, and even subject them at times to situations worse than those for which they needed help originally. The interventions called for are those that support beleaguered families; that are based on conceptualizations of people as adaptable and capable of solving their own problems if they are given adequate supports.     

Racial wage differentials among young adults: Evidence from the 1990s

This study seeks to decompose wage differentials between black and white male young adults into those related to labor market discrimination and those resulting from human capital endowments. The importance of testing for significant differences in wage equations before conducting decomposition analysis is emphasized. Study results demonstrate that ignoring correction for the sample selection bias resulting from black-white differences in the probability of being employed would lead to an underestimation of the size of wage differentials. The study also shows that the results of models based on different assumptions regarding the nondiscriminatory wage structure might lead to different conclusions pertinent to the extent of labor market discrimination. Implications for public policy development are discussed. His current research interests include consumption economics, income distribution, and international comparative analyses of households' resources allocation. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Missouri at Columbia. Her current research interests include family financial distribution and wellbeing and individual and family resource management. She received her Ph.D. from Iowa State University.     

The persuasive effect of source credibility: a situational analysis.

The interactive effects of source credibility and other variables which affect the communication process are reviewed, and the extent to which these data are ordered by cognitive response and attribution theories is examined. On the basis of this review (1) situations where a credible source facilities, inhibits, and has no systematic persuasive effect are identified; (2) the explanatory power of cognitive response and attribution theory is demonstrated; and (3) a common language linking these theoretical formulations is advanced, providing a framework for investigating the persuasive mass communication process.     

Political participation: A comparative view of Israeli and American youth

This study explored the ways in which adolescents in Israel and the United States perceived government, politics, and public affairs. A series of open-ended interviews were conducted with approximately 300 high school students in each country immediately prior to the national elections in 1980–1981. Differences were found in regard to the extent to which the young people felt affected by and capable of affecting the larger political system, the extent to which voting was viewed as an important rite of passage to adulthood, and the extent to which they perceived having real choices in candidates and parties, with Israeli youth generally demonstrating more engagement in national governmental affairs. Finally, the conditions and factors that were likely to lead adolescents toward concern, interest, and participation in public affairs were offered.