IRCA's impact on the occupational concentration and mobility of newly-legalized Mexican men

We examine the occupational concentration and mobility of a group of unauthorized Mexican men who received amnesty under IRCA to shed light on the role of legal status in the assimilation process. Initially these men are concentrated in a small number of traditional migrant jobs. Although their occupational mobility rate is high, it partly represents churning through these same occupations. When we consider the direction – either upward or downward – of occupational change, we find that English language ability and the characteristics of the occupation, itself, are strongly correlated with mobility before legalization. After legalization, few characteristics surpass in importance the common experience of having received amnesty. Received: 22 July 1997/Accepted: 2 February 1999     

Effect of childbearing on Filipino women's work hours and earnings

The effects of childbearing and work sector on women's hours and earnings in the 8 years following an index pregnancy were examined in a cohort of more than 2,000 women in the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey. Change in cash earnings and hours worked were each modeled jointly with sector of labor force participation using an estimation strategy that deals with endogeneity of childbearing decisions and selectivity into sector of work. Two or more additional children born in the 8 year interval significantly reduced women's earnings, while having an additional child under 2 years of age in 1991 reduced hours worked. Received: 16 July 1998/Accepted: 22 March 2001 All correspondence to Linda Adair. The authors wish to thank Family Health International and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) for their generous support. This publication was funded by USAID under Cooperative Agreement USAID/CCP-3060-A-00-3021-00 to Family Health International (FHI). David Guilkey's participation in this paper was also supported by the MEASURE Evaluation Project also with support from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under Contract Number HRN-A-00-97-00018-00. The conclusions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the policies of FHI or USAID. Helpful comments by two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editor: T. Paul Schultz.     

Brother correlations in earnings in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden compared to the United States

The correlation in economic status among siblings is a useful “omnibus measure” of the overall impact of family and community factors on adult economic status. In this study we compare brother correlations in long-run (permanent) earnings between the United States, on one hand, and the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) on the other. Our base case results, based on very similar sample criteria and definitions for all countries, show that this correlation is above 0.40 in the United States and in the range 0.14–0.26 in the Nordic countries. Even though these results turn out to be somewhat sensitive to some assumptions that have to be made, we conclude that the family and community factors are more important determinants of long-run earnings in the United States than in the Nordic countries. Received: 27 July 2000/Accepted: 7 March 2001 All correspondence to: Anders Bj?rklund. Comments from two referees, conference participants at ESPE2000 and the Canadian Employment Research Forum, seminar participants in Aarhus, Uppsala, Bonn, and Stockholm are gratefully acknowledged. We thank NOS-S for financial support. The Swedish data collection was also supported by HSFR and SFR. The Finnish data were obtained with support from the Yrj? Jahnsson Foundation. We thank Tom Erik Aab? for preparing the Norwegian data, and Esben Agerbo for computational assistance with the Danish data. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.     

A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries

In this paper we look at a panel of OECD aggregate fertility and labor market data between 1970 and 1995 and we report some striking recent developments. Total Fertility Rates (TFR) were falling and Female Participation Rates (FPR) were increasing, conforming to a well known long-run trend. Along the cross-sectional dimension, the correlation between TFR and FPR was negative and significant during the 1970's and up to the early 1980's. This seemed consistent with secular comovements. However, by the late 1980's the correlation had become positive and equally significant. We discuss our findings within the framework of standard neoclassical models of fertility and labor supply adapted to macro data, as in Butz and Ward (1979). Received: 14 April 2000/Accepted: 29 December 2000 All correspondence to Pedro Mira. Namkee Ahn is grateful for financial support received from the Bank of Spain and from Spain's Ministerio de Educación y Cultura, grant SEC97-1249. We benefited from comments by two anonymous referees and by seminar participants at FEDEA, CEMFI and ESPE-98. All remaining errors are our own. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.     

Hebrew language usage: determinants and effects on earnings among immigrants in Israel

This paper uses the 1983 Census of Israel to analyze Hebrew speaking skills and the effects of Hebrew fluency on the earnings of adult male immigrants. Hebrew fluency increases with a longer duration in Israel, the presence of children in the household, marrying after immigration, living in an area in which a smaller proportion speak one‘s mother tongue, a younger age at migration, a higher level of schooling and varies by country of birth. Earnings increase monotonically with the use of Hebrew. Speaking English as a second language is associated with higher earnings, even when country of origin is held constant. Received: 9 June 1997/Accepted: 6 November 1997     

Economic transformation and the gender earnings gap in urban China

The gender wage gap and its development in urban China is analysed utilising two large scale surveys covering 10 provinces for the years 1988 and 1995. The results indicate that from an international perspective, the gender wage gap in urban China appears to be relatively small. It is, however, increasing. Decompositions based on estimated regression-models show that somewhat less than half of the average gender wage gap can be attributed to differences in variables but much less of its increase. The earnings situation of young women and women with limited education has especially deteriorated if compared to men having the same characteristics. Received: 20 October 1997/Accepted: 7 October 1998     

Immigrant earnings: Language skills, linguistic concentrations and the business cycle

This study of the determinants of earnings among adult foreign-born men using the 1990 Census of Population focuses on the effects of the respondent's own English language skills, the effects of living in a linguistic concentration area, and the effects of the stage of the business cycle at entry into the U.S. labor market. The analysis demonstrates the importance of English language fluency among the foreign born from non-English speaking countries. There is also strong evidence for the complementarity between language skills and other forms of human capital. Furthermore, there is strong evidence using selectivity correction techniques for the endogeneity between language and earnings. Received: 30 November 1999/Accepted: 6 February 2001     

A reply to Walker’s note: A comment on Taşiran’s ‘Wage and income effects on the timing and spacing of births in Sweden and in the United States’

Walker (1997) criticizes one of the conclusions in my book Tas?\iran (1995), that Heckman and Walker’s very high negative wage rate and positive income effects on Swedish fertility are very sensitive. In this paper, I explain, first, that my results are not only based on the series Walker mentions, but also on other series in both SFS and HUS data sets. Second, the combined aggregate and micro wage series he criticizes is mainly derived with Heckman and Walker. Third, by discussing the points he raises for the combination strategy, I show that his revised results are also supporting my conclusion. Received: 7 June 1996/Accepted: 16 July 1997 I am grateful to Anders Klevmarken, Lennart Hjalmarsson, Bj?rn Gustafsson and Ann Veiderpass for their valuable suggestions and discussions on an earlier version of this paper. Thanks also to two anonymous referees for their comments and to the responsible editor of this journal Klaus F. Zimmermann, for his encouragement and many helpful comments. Any remaining errors are my own. Responsible editor: Klaus F. Zimmermann.     

Joint decisions on household membership and human capital accumulation of youths. The role of expected earnings and local markets

This paper analyses the effects of expected earnings and local markets conditions on the behaviour of young adults with high school diplomas. Decisions to either remain in the parental home or form a new household are modelled jointly with those of either gaining work experience or investing in a university education. Expected lifetime earnings are found to play a crucial role in determining the choice of studying and residing with parents. Poor labour market opportunities discourage young people from working and induce them to study. The cost of housing greatly influences the choice of working and leaving the parental home. Received: 23 March 2001/Accepted: 26 November 2001 All correspondence to Gianna Claudia Giannelli. Helpful comments by two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.     

The relative risk aversion hypothesis of educational choice

Analysing young people's educational choices, we derive and test implications of a relative risk aversion hypothesis: that educational choices are made so as to minimize the risk of ending up with a lower level of education than one's parents. These implications are in general different from what one would expect from human capital theory. We use a unique data set which combines data from administrative registers on young people's pathways through the educational system and their family background with survey data on their academic abilities at lower secondary school. The evidence is partly in favour of the relative risk aversion hypothesis. Received: 19 August 1999/Accepted: 10 January 2001 All correspondence to Eskil Heinesen. We are grateful to Karin Blix Mogensen and Martin B?g for excellent research assistance, and to two anonymous referees, John F. Ermisch, Martin Browning, Michael Rosholm, Paul Bingley, and participants at the conference of the European Society for Population Economics in Turin, 1999, for valuable comments and suggestions. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.     

A socioeconomic analysis of the determinants of fertility: the case of Vietnam

This paper is an economics-based quantitative analysis of the determinants of individual fertility in Vietnam, measured as the number of children ever born. In addition to the conventional linear model, two limited dependent variable models, Poisson and ordered-logit, are estimated using data from the 1988 Vietnam Demographic and Health Survery. We find, among other things, that husbands‘ characteristics are almost as important as those of wives in determining fertility, perhaps a reflection of the still dominant role of husbands in Vietnamese families. Both paternal and maternal education have important impacts on fertility. Of special interest is the evidence that supports the attitudinal effect of education over the opportunity-cost effect. Received April 22, 1996 / Accepted January 13, 1997     

Should I stay or should I go? Educational choices and earnings: An empirical study for Portugal

We analyse educational choices and earnings of individuals at two different levels in the Portuguese educational system. At each exit we consider two decisions: the decision to continue studying and the employment decision. We find empirical support for the existence of selectivity bias as the errors of the earnings functions are in general correlated with the disturbances of the decision functions. The obtained rates of return to education vary between 2.4 and 9.4 percent, depending on whether or not selectivity and quantity effects are excluded from the computations. Note that selectivity represents three quarters of this difference. Received: 5 March 2001/Accepted: 10 October 2001 I am grateful for the comments of the editor and two anonymous referees. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.     

Of rotten kids and Rawlsian parents: The optimal timing of intergenerational transfers

This paper shows that altruistic parents with utilitarian preferences may fare better if they transfer resources to their children early in life instead of delaying the bulk of transfers until after their death. Moreover, the outcome of the analysed “family transfer game” is not Pareto-efficient in the case of bequests. However, if altruistic parents hold Rawlsian preferences, they will be indifferent between gifts and bequests, and Pareto-efficiency is always obtained. In intermediate cases of Atkinson-type welfare functions, welfare losses of bequests compared to gifts disappear as the aversion to inequality converges to infinity. Received: 3 November 1998/Accepted: 4 May 1999     

Earnings assimilation of immigrants in Norway – A reappraisal

The relative earnings growth for immigrants in Norway is computed. Unlike Hayfron (1998, this journal) we define immigrants by country of origin rather than citizenship and perform separate studies of immigrants from inside and outside the OECD region. Replicating Hayfron op.cit. we find that the earnings assimilation is considerably weaker. Further, we find that the earnings of OECD immigrants are comparable to those of natives, while Non-OECD immigrants earn considerably less than natives at the time of entry, but that their relative earnings improve gradually over time. Earnings of different immigrant cohorts converged from 1980 to 1990, indicating a non-linear rate of assimilation. Received: 7 April 2000/Accepted: 4 January 2001     

Ecosystem resilience, specialized adaptation and population decline: A modern Malthusian theory

The purpose of this article is to construct a theoretical framework characterizing the interactions among economic development, ecosystem equilibrium and possible population decline, and to discuss the population dynamics in the very long run. In our framework, economic activities bridge population and environment. On the one hand, human beings reform the environment through economic activities; on the other hand, economic activities decrease environmental resilience and increase the possibility of an environmental change in a discontinuous and irreversible pattern, as described in Arrow et al. (1995). Furthermore, a highly developed economy also causes over-specialization of human adaptation, which tends to exaggerate the impact of an environmental change on human population size. Received: 19 January 1999/Accepted: 3 July 1999     

The effect of divorce costs on marriage formation and dissolution

Exploiting the theoretical parallels between the matching of workers to jobs in the labour market and the matching of individuals in the marriage market, we use a search theoretic model of marriage formation and dissolution to examine the effect of divorce costs on both decisions. By introducing learning at both stages of the marital decision process, we show that divorce costs not only affect the probability of divorce but also the probability of marriage. Interestingly, to what extent divorce costs affect the marital status distribution depends on the information regarding the quality of the potential marriage that individuals receive while encountering marital offers. Received: 30 July 1996/Accepted: 7 December 1998     

The decisions of Spanish youth: A cross-section study

This paper presents a simultaneous model for the joint decisions of working, studying and leaving the parental household by young people in Spain. Using cross-section data from the 1990–1991 Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares, the model is estimated by a two stage estimation method. Endogeneity of the three decisions proves to be important in order to understand the dynamics of household formation. Our results also confirm a number of plausible intuitions about the effect of individual characteristics and economic variables on these decisions, and provide some new insights into the reasons for young people in Spain remaining in large numbers in the parental home. Most of the results are gender independent. Received: 18 September 1998/Accepted: 24 October 2000     

Is the male marriage premium due to selection? The effect of shotgun weddings on the return to marriage

In standard cross-sectional wage regressions, married men appear to earn 10 to 20% more than comparable never married men. One proposed explanation for this male marriage premium is that men may be selected into marriage on the basis of characteristics valued by employers as well as by spouses or because they earn high wages. This paper examines the selection hypothesis by focusing on shotgun weddings, which may make marital status uncorrelated with earnings ability. We compare the estimated marriage premium between white men whose first marriages are soon followed by a birth and other married white men in the United States. The return to marriage differs little for married men with a premarital conception and other married men, and the results suggest that at most 10% of the estimated marriage premium is due to selection. Received: 19 June 1998/Accepted: 10 July 2000     

The association between the frequency of wife assault and marital dissolution in Canada

A strong positive association between wife abuse in the first marriage and the probability of that marriage ending is documented and investigated using the 1993 Violence Against Women survey (VAWS) for Canada and controlling for the endogeneity of abuse. A sensitivity analysis suggests that systematic reporting differences are not likely to account for the findings. Received: 2 June 1999/Accepted: 13 June 2000     

Returns to education in the Irish youth labour market

Using data from two large-scale household surveys in 1987 and 1994, we estimate wage equations which show substantial increases in returns to university education for young Irish workers over the period, despite the exceptional increase in numbers with these qualifications. Returns to non-degree third level certificates and diplomas fell in relative terms, but returns to qualifications obtained by those leaving school at about 16 years of age rose. We argue that the increased return to university education primarily reflects the generalised shift in demand towards skilled labour internationally and the open nature of the Irish labour market. However, a floor may have been placed under earnings for low-skilled youth by the increased generosity of income support available to them. Received: 29 December 1997/Accepted: 7 August 1998