Size and duration of empires: Systematics of size

Areas of the world's three largest empires or states at any given time are listed at 100- or 50-year intervals, from 3000 b.c. on. Area measurement definitions and techniques are described. Major empire size has tended to increase, approaching the world's dry earth area in an approximately logistic way. This pattern suggests that a world state is still many centuries away. Sudden increases in empire size have occurred around 2800 b.c. due to emergence of cities, around 600 b.c. due to a power delegation breakthrough, and around 1600 a.d. due to a communication speed revolution. A graph of the world's largest empire areas throughout times offers somewhat novel perspectives on world history, making one realize the Western bias of many “world history” texts. Areas of 20 largest states that ever existed are listed. Subsequent papers will deal with historical periods in more detail.     

How trade/GNP ratio decreases with country size

The ratio of a country's foreign trade (i.e., exports plus imports) to its GNP has a known tendency to decrease with country size. Previous studies have used a single year's data; but trade fluctuates greatly from year to year. This paper makes available a compilation of 1953–1972 export/GNP and import/GNP figures for 110 countries. The average import/GNP figure is found to correlate strongly with population size; the simple expression, Imports/GNP = 40 $\text{P}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>?1</mtext><mtext>3</mtext>}}$, applies, within a factor of 2, in 94% of cases. No correlation with development level can be seen. The United States data throughout its history (1799–1972) follow the same inverse cube root pattern, but with a constant of 20 instead of 40. Correlation is much poorer in the case of export/GNP ration. Export and import figures are only marginally correlated to each other.     

The effect of restricted and unrestricted verdict options on juror choice

Data on the effect of limiting the number of verdict options open to jurors on the probability of acquittal are reanalyzed. Strong support is found for a model which postulates that jurors' preferences are single peaked with respect to an underlying verdict severity continuum. Limited support is found for an anchoring effect in which the addition of new verdict options affects the perceived relative fairness of other verdict options. The implication of the single-peakedness model is that some jurors will refuse to vote for conviction if the verdict (punishment) is seen as too harsh even though the defendant is perceived to be guilty of committing a crime.     

Chance in Guttman scaling

In their recent paper (1977, Social Science Research, 6, 188–196), Kenny and Rubin offer an interpretation of “chance” in Guttman scaling. Their approach is based on the matrix of probabilities p_ij, giving the chance that the ith respondent passes the jth item. It is shown that their interpretation of chance in fact corresponds to a stochastic model of a perfect unidimensional scale. An alternative condition for chance based on the matrix of p_ij's is proposed. This is then proved to be equivalent to the usual interpretation.     

Balanced designs for triads tests: Two examples from English

In this paper we study two semantic domains in English, kinship and vegetables, using a new procedure for triads testing, the balanced incomplete block design. This procedure allows the use of triads tests on larger sets of words than had previously been possible. Included is a table of balanced incomplete block designs for the use of interested researchers.     

The use of nativity data to estimate ethnic characteristics and patterns

Until recently, nativity data for the first and second generations (the foreign stock) have been the primary source of census information on white ethnic groups in the United States. With the development of an ancestry item, it is now possible to deal with all generations regardless of birthplace. The 1979 Current Population Survey provides a rare opportunity to cross-tabulate the results obtained from each system in order to determine the degree of overlap in the populations and the extent to which inferences about the social characteristics of ethnic groups are altered. The degree of overlap varies enormously among groups, but the results show that inferences based on nativity data are fairly close to those that would be obtained with the use of the ethnic ancestry item. This is an encouraging result for researchers obliged to use nativity data in working with earlier censuses.     

A stochastic model of organizational mortality: Review and reanalysis

An effort is made to integrate the research literatures of business policy and organizational sociology as they concern organizational mortality. The previous empirical studies of organizational mortality are reviewed and considered in light of current theoretical arguments. Three stochastic models are developed to test hypotheses concerning organizational mortality: the constant rate model, the Gompertz model, and Makeham's Law. The parameters of these models are estimated for 52 sets of data on organizational mortality. The findings show that Makeham's Law is the best-fitting model, although its estimation requires data with low levels of censoring. Substantively, the findings show strong support for Stinchombe's liability-of-newness hypothesis [A. L. Stinchcombe (1965), “Organizations and social structure,” in Handbook of Organizations (J. G. March, Ed.), pp. 153–193, Rand McNally, Chicago].     

White,black, and Hispanic male youths in central city labor markets

Data from the 1% 1980 Census Public Use Sample are used to estimate the determinants of employment and wage rates for out-of-school male youths residing in central cities. Separate calculations are undertaken for white, black, and Hispanic youths. Independent variables include individual, family background, and local labor market characteristics. Three basic findings emerge. First, racial inequality persists, with whites showing the best outcomes, Hispanics second, and blacks at the bottom. Second, underlying these unequal outcomes are rather different patterns of effect for personal and family characteristics by race. Note-worthy here is the Hispanic pattern of low reliance on schooling and high reliance on family. Finally, net of these effects, intercity differences are interesting and important. These include negative effects of city size and race composition effects which show white gains where blacks and Hispanics are a larger share of the population.     

Prestige versus socioeconomic status in the attainment processes of American men and women

This paper demonstrates the consequences to the researcher of choosing to analyze social mobility data with a prestige scale rather than with a socioeconomic index. First, the low intergenerational correlations reported for the International Prestige Scale are rejected when they are shown to be compatible with inadequate models of the processes of status inheritance. Second, the Duncan socioeconomic index is shown to be the preferred measure of status transmission in that it suffers from less random error than does the International Prestige Scale, particularly among men. Third, the occupational attainment processes of American men and women are described with socioeconomic scoring, and these findings are contrasted with those which obtain with prestige coding.     

Dual-language characteristics and earnings: Male Mexican workers in the United States

This paper examines income differentials between native-born white males of non-Hispanic origins and Mexican American males of varying linguistic statuses. The analysis relies on conventional modeling techniques of the earnings process and the selected use of mother tongue, English fluency, and primary language usage to categorize the Mexican American population. The findings differ among the derived groups. Among Mexican immigrants, there does not appear to be any direct economic reward for speaking English. For the U.S.-born Chicanos, there is only a small economic advantage associated with being reared as an English monolingual, and there appears to be a clear disadvantage directly associated with being a Spanish-dominant bilingual.     

Informant accuracy in social-network data V. An experimental attempt to predict actual communication from recall data

This paper seeks to discover whether the known inaccuracy of informant recall about their communication behavior can be accounted for by experimentally varying the time period over which recall takes place. The experiment took advantage of a new communications medium (computer conferencing) which enabled us to monitor automatically all the interactions involving a subset of the computer network. The experiment itself was administered entirely by the computer, which interviewed informants and recorded their responses. Variations in time period failed to account for much of the inaccuracy, which continues, as in previous experiments at an unacceptably high level. One positive finding did emerge: although the informants did not know with whom they communicated, the informants en masse seemed to know certain broad facts about the communication pattern. All other findings were negative. For example, it is impossible to predict the people an informant claimed to communicate with but did not; and it is impossible to predict who the five people are that an informant forgot to mention that she or he had communication with. Thus, despite their presumed good intentions, our findings here confirm what we have learned from six previous experiments: What people say about their communications bears no resemblance to their behavior. This suggests that other forms of data gathering, based on questions which require that informants recall their behavior, may well be suspect.     

Changes in reinforcement contingencies and the disruption of social exchange

Social exchange, reinforcement, and equity theories suggest that several forms of change in social reinforcement contingencies should disrupt social interaction. A laboratory experiment compared the disruptive effects of three forms of contingency change on social exchange in the dyad: (1) the addition of an individual contingency as an alternative reward source, (2) reduction in the magnitude of rewards from social exchange, and (3) a change from equitable to inequitable exchange. All three forms of change were more likely to induce deviation than a control condition of no change. Of the three forms of change, contingency addition produced the most sustained disruptions and reward reduction the shortest disruptions; inequity was intermediate. The same rank order, although nonsignificant, was observed for probability of initial deviation. Subjects' responses to postexperimental questionnaires suggest that reward reduction and inequity produced the kinds of emotional responses predicted by exchange and equity theories, but these reactions do not appear to mediate the effects on deviation.     

Resources,homophily, and dependence: Organizational attributes and asymmetric ties in human service networks

This paper examines the effects of organizational attributes on power/dependence relations in interorganizational dyads. Exchange and homophily theories are discussed as two alternative perspectives on the processes that give rise to such effects. The data pertain to interagency ties in three community-based networks of youth service agencies and are analyzed via a new strategy of linear modeling dyadic relations. The results of the analysis suggest that size, administrative position, and justice system connections condition the extent to which an agency initiates and receives ties of influence, assistance, and support. Moreover, these relations are more frequent between agencies with similar treatment ideologies and client racial makeup. Finally, size and justice system access are found to reduce agency dependence on a network's administrative core. In the course of the discussion, a number of related issues and findings are discussed.     

On a dynamic response model of W. F. Kempf

Kempf's model was used by W. F. Kempf and P. Hampapa (1977, “Conditional inference for the dynamic test model,” in Mathematical Models for Social Psychology (W. F. Kempf and B. H. Repp, Eds.), Chap. 3, pp. 81–100, Wiley, New York) to analyze the cross-classification of responses to four items on sex typing of children's household chores from the 1971 Detroit Area Study. The model alters the simple Rasch measurement model for dichotomous items to include transfer effects, so that responses are allowed to be serially dependent (G. Rasch, 1966, “An individualistic approach to item analysis,” in Readings in Mathematical Social Science (P. F. Lazarsfeld and N. W. Henry, Eds.), pp. 89–107, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1980; Probabilistic Models for Some Intelligence and Attainment Tests, expanded ed., Univ. of Chicago Press, Chicago). Although Kempf and Hampapa did not find strong reason to reject the dynamic model, the present analysis indicates that it should be rejected in favor of a two-dimensional Rasch model.     

Economic and other determinants of annual change in U.S. fertility: 1917-1976

Decomposition of fertility into its age, period, and cohort components demonstrates the empirical importance of age and period. Of the two, less is known about the period dimension. A new measure of fertility, specific to race and birth order, is used to estimate the effects of annual change in unemployment, the marriage and unemployment rate, as well as annual change in contraceptive sterilization and change in the proportion of couples adopting the more effective (pill and IUD) methods introduced in the early 1960s, are all important determinants of fertility change, but their impact varies greatly by birth order.     

Psychophysical measurement and the validity of the modern economic approach: A presentation of methods and preliminary experiments

The modern economic approach to human behavior and social interaction argues that people maximize the subjective theoretical quantity utility. This primary presupposition has resisted all empirical tests and a consensus has developed that it is unfalsifiable. A promising new approach to the problem is introduced in the paper through research on the psychophysical measurement of the marginal utility of money and commitment. The research reported here suggests that the utility function for money conforms to the power law and has an exponent of about .43. The paper also examines the advisability of broadening the utility function to cover social variables. An operationalization of the concept of commitment was examined using psychophysical techniques with the result that people appear to have utility for commitment, that a power function is involved, and that the exponent is in the vicinity of .36.