Comparing measures of homicide trends: Methodological and substantive differences in the Vital Statistics and Uniform Crime Report time series (1933–1975)

Several Uniform Crime Reports (FBI) and Vital Statistics (NCHS) homicide time series for the United States, 1933–1975, are compared with respect to (a) definitions and collection procedures used; (b) differences in estimating procedures; and (c) substantive differences that result from use of either series. Among the findings from this investigation are that: (1) the sampling procedures employed by the NCHS appear to be superior to those of the FBI; (2) the FBI time series most commonly employed by researchers is discontinuous prior to 1958 due to revision procedures which were instituted at that time. Analyses over time periods which began prior to this year should employ a more accurate FBI time series which is published by the Office of Management and Budget (1973). (3) The specific time period under study may lead to different substantive conclusions with different indicators; (4) the results of statistical analyses of structural equation models contained herein indicate that while the difference is not generally statistically significant, the deterrent effect of execution is consistently estimated to be greater with the Vital Statistics series. This finding has important policy implications if estimates of the number of lives saved by executing prisoners are projected and utilized by policy makers. (5) Neither series indicates serious problems of autocorrelation of disturbances with the exogenous variables employed here; and (6) use of either series for the period after 1949 appears to produce the same substantive results.     

Employment among married female college graduates

This paper investigates the effect of attitudinal factors on the employment of white married female college graduates with and without children. A model of the employment status of these women 3 and 7 years after graduation is estimated using data from the NORC longitudinal study of 1961 college graduates. Taste for housework was found to affect the employment of nonmothers only, whereas “child care ideology” affected the employment of mothers. Husband's income had a negative effect on the wife's working both in 1964 and in 1968. Age of youngest child in 1964 had a positive, and number of children a negative, impact on a mother's working in 1964. The negative effect on employment status in 1968 of the birth of a child between 1964 and 1968 was much greater for those women for whom it was a first birth than for those who already had children.     

A dynamic macro social indicator model of changes in marriage, family, and population in the United States: 1947–1974

This paper presents an integrated 21-equation model of how marriage, family, and population conditions, as indexed by macro social indicators, affect each other and are affected by other social, demographic, and economic forces. An opportunity structures theoretical paradigm is applied to the specification of dynamic structural equations for determining changes (both trends and cyclical fluctuations) in marriage formation and dissolution, family and household composition, fertility, mortality, population growth, and population distribution. The equations are estimated on annual national data for the United States during the post-World War II years 1947 to 1972, and then they are used to make conditional forecasts of the values of some of the endogenous variables for 1973 and 1974. It is found that the equations fit the observed data well, lack demonstrable autocorrelation of disturbances, and forecast the 1973 and 1974 values usually with less than 2% error. Strategies are sketched for further refining some of the equations, and it is suggested that this model should be integrated into a larger societal model in order to estimate some of the effects of changes in demographic phenomena on other social conditions.     

Aggregate male and female labor force participation functions: An analysis of structural differences, 1947–1977

The hypothesis that the structure of the forces that affect male and female labor force participation rates are distinct has been corroborated in numerous studies using microdata. This paper examines the validity of this structural distinctiveness hypothesis in the context of aggregate, time series data on male and female labor force participation in the post-World War II United States. Standard economic and sociological theories are used to specify sex-specific participation functions that contain indexes of the sex-specific general opportunity for employment, the sex-specific rates of participation in the armed forces and in postsecondary schooling institutions, the average real wage rate, the average number of hours worked, and the fertility rate. It is found that the female rate is more responsive than the male rate to the general employment opportunities and average hours indexes, but less responsive to the wage rate. Also, the female rate responds positively to the armed forces participation and college enrollment rates, whereas the male rate is negatively related to these indexes. However, no evidence is found for another component of the structural distinctiveness hypothesis, namely, that the fertility rate bears a consistent negative relationship to the female participation rate. While this relationship may have held during the early postwar years, it seems to have been substantially attentuated since the early 1960s. Prospects for convergence of the male and female participation functions are evaluated. Although current social trends suggest that the female function eventually will resemble more closely the male funtion, it is concluded that substantial sex differences are likely to persist for at least another decade. Implications of this for the structure of the labor force participation functions used in macroeconometric forecasting models are discussed.     

Socioeconomic indexes and the new 1980 census occupational classification scheme

Because of their usefulness in a wide variety of research, socioeconomic scores have been revised several times to incorporate changes in the relevant components of the occupational structure and to conform with the changing census occupational classification schemes. The major purpose of this paper is to provide socioeconomic scores for the 1980 census occupational classification scheme. First, however, we review earlier versions of the socioeconomic index (SEI), summarize the relevant disparities between the 1970 and 1980 census occupational classificatory schemes, and then explain in detail the procedures used to reconcile the SEI with 1980 occupational codes. We also show that, although the 1980 occupational classificatory scheme differs radically from the 1970 occupational scheme, the socioconomic scores for 1980 occupational data replicate features found in 1970 data.     

Population growth and the birth squeeze

Birth squeezes result from an imbalance in the number of males and females in the childbearing ages, and can have a significant impact on the level and distribution of births. To measure the effects of a birth squeeze, the observed male and female age-specific birth rates were distinguished from the underlying fertility magnitudes, which reflect the mutual propensity of males and females of specified ages to have a child. The fertility magnitudes, readily expressible in terms of the birth rates, are nonetheless independent of the age-sex composition of the population, while the birth rates are affected by compositional changes. The two-sex Total Fertility Rate, TFR2, the average of the male and female TFRs, is advanced as a summary measure of fertility independent of the birth squeeze, and a simple index, U, is defined to measure the severity of the squeeze. Analyses involving stable population models, alternative population projections, and the birth squeezes found in contemporary populations documented the importance of the birth squeeze for studies of fertility. In particular, the size of the distortions introduced by the birth squeeze was seen as related to the level of fertility itself. In high-fertility populations, the birth squeeze depresses observed female age-specific birth rates, and thus conventional measures can significantly underestimate the fertility reduction needed to end population growth.     

Taxation and the value of nonmarket time

In this study, the value of nonmarket time is estimated for American families using the opportunity cost approach whereby the market wage is taken as a measure of the value of time and used to impute nonmarket income to each household. In cases where the market wage is not observed, a new estimation technique is used to obtain consistent estimates of the wage. It is shown that the nonmarket income of families increases with family money income and family size, but decreases with age and the number of job holders in the family. The implications for taxation are discussed.     

Women's employment patterns and occupational achievements

This paper suggests that employment patterns and occupational advancement are related: Those less extensively and less continuously employed will have less investment in human capital, fewer opportunities to move to higher positions in the occupational structure, and, consequently, less gain in occupational rewards over the work life. Here National Longitudinal Survey data for women 30 to 44 years of age in 1967 are used to examine the effects of women's employment experience on their status gains from their career beginnings to 1971. A small but significant effect of employment experience on status gain is found for whites, but not for nonwhites.     

Dynamic models and attainment in the workplace

The two most marked trends in recent stratification studies are: (1) the shift away from a statical approach to attainment and toward a dynamical representation of achievement, and (2) the shift away from the assumption that achievement is largely a matter of individual characteristics, and toward the view that achievement is the outcome of an employer-employee exchange of productive resources for earnings and status. This paper forges a link between these parallel trends by elaborating on previous formulations of dynamic models of achievement and applying the results to the analysis of earnings attainment in an internal labor market. The modeling section of the paper joins within a single framework the growing interest in ascertaining how a given structure of opportunity shapes achievement and in determining the different points in the career line at which individual background and resource variables impact attainment. Special attention is devoted to the problems facing researchers who wish to bring a dynamic conceptualization of achievement to cross-sectional or otherwise deficient data. Although the empirical application of the various models is largely meant to be illustrative, it is of interest in its own right because it goes substantially beyond previous efforts in this area.     

Household migration and the labor market position of married women

The present paper conceptualizes labor force participation among U.S. wives as both a determinant and consequence of household migration. A theoretical justification is provided for decomposing these relationships by occupational position of the wife. Applying log-linear models to data from the 1970 One-in-a-Thousand Public Use Sample, we corroborate previous research in that, on the average, the likelihood of interstate migration between 1965 and 1970 was greatest among families in which the wife was not employed prior to the move. However, among employed wives, those classified as professionals or managers were also found to accentuate the probability of household migration, particularly if the husband was not employed in 1965. The implication is that all types of employment by the wife need not limit family mobility as previous studies have suggested. Although migration was found to have a disrupting effect on the continuity of employment among most wives, this effect was most in evidence among wives employed in blue collar occupations. The data suggest the need for a careful reappraisal of traditional economic notions of migration, particularly as they apply to married women.     

Educational indicators and occupational achievement

Many sociological and economic studies assume that the variable, Highest Grade Completed in School, is by itself an adequate measure of people's education for the purpose of explaining their occupational achievement. Use of Highest Grade Completed as the sole measure of education has at least two major shortcomings. It assumes people have (1) learned the same amount of (2) the same thing in an academic year. Supplementary education indicators are identified and tested to see if they have a substantial impact on occupational prestige or earnings. Background social statuses and Highest Grade Completed are controlled for in this test. Only measures of subject matter studied in high school or college have a statistically significant relationship with occupational achievement net of Highest Grade Completed and social background variables. Highest Grade Completed is quite adequate in measuring the impact of education on occupational achievement without help from the measures of subject matter studied.     

On population comparisons using factor indexes or latent variables

Population comparisons of multivariate models using factor indexes or latent factors are demonstrated to be unsound with current methods of comparative analysis unless one is willing to assume a priori that all of the variances of the latent factors in a model are identical across all populations analyzed. This is an assumption that is probably only rarely found in comparative research. Without this assumption, comparisons are unsound regardless of whether model estimations are made from regression analysis or maximum likelihood techniques. A general method is suggested which proposes to make comparative analyses of factors possible without the assumption of equal variances across populations.     

Determinants of fertility levels and change among developed countries: 1958–1978

This article provides a multivariate cross-national test of the hypothesis that national population/family planning policies have effected levels, and changes in fertility in developed nations over the past two decades. Variation is assessed in the total fertility rates (TFR) in 1978, and in the change in these rates between 1958 and 1978, among thirty developed countries. Measures include socioeconomic development, divorce, percent in consensual unions, female labor force participation, abortion policy, and level of contraceptive use by married couples and, government population/family planning policy. Seventy percent of the variation in 1978 TFR is related to the percent contracepting, female labor force, and the population/family planning policy measures. These are the only measures with significant direct effects. A longitudinal analysis of 1958 to 1978 change in TFRs is also conducted. This model increases R² to 75%, and the three independent variables remain significant. Implications of these findings for policy makers interested in increasing or decreasing fertility rates are noted.     

Wage change in the late career: A model for the outcomes of job sequences

This paper elaborates a model for the outcomes of job sequences and illustrates its utility by an empirical analysis of the determinants of wage change for men in their late careers. We argue that job sequences represent the basic components of careers and that a focus on these sequences is useful for explaining the determinants of socioeconomic inequality over the life cycle. Our model permits us to estimate the effects on wage change of a wide array of personal resources and measures of the opportunity structure. We further assess how these types of factors differentially affect wage change for various patterns of labor market behavior and for blacks vs whites. Our empirical analysis of data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Middle-Aged Men suggests the importance of patterns of job sequences for wage change and for the explanation of racial differentials in career advancement.     

Bringing the cops back in: A study of efforts to make the criminal justice system more responsive to incidents of family violence

This paper examines the ways in which the criminal justice system typically responds to incidents of violence between adult members of the same household and then using a three equation, nonrecursive time series model considers the impact of efforts in one locale to improve law enforcement practices. Three questions are addressed: (a) can the apparent underreporting of domestic violence by police be improved; (b) can the quality of information funneled from police to the District Attorney's office be enhanced; and (c) can the number of offenders held accountable for their actions be increased?     

Separating age,period, and cohort effects in white U.S. fertility, 1920–1970

Four models are developed to describe the odds transformation of period- and age-specific fertility rates as products of age, period, and cohort effects. These are applied to data for white U.S. women age 15–44 from 1920 to 1970, with equal weights given to each rate. All models which include age fit subsets of the data extremely well. Per effect, the incorporation of periods improves the fit much more than the incorporation of cohorts. It is shown that first differences are invariant in two-effect models, and second differences are invariant in the three-effect models.