Long and happy living: Trends and patterns of happy life expectancy in the U.S., 1970–2000

This study assesses the trends and differentials in length of quality life in the U.S. population as measured by happy life expectancy in 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000. The analysis combines age-specific prevalence rates of subjective well-being from a large nationally representative survey and life table estimates of mortality in decennial Census years. Employing the period prevalence-rate life table method—Sullivan method, the analysis finds evidence for improvement in quality of life in the U.S. Happy life expectancy largely increased in both absolute terms (number of years) and relative terms (proportion of life) over time at all adult ages examined. And increases in total life expectancy were mainly contributed by increases in expectancy in happy years rather than unhappy years. Happy life expectancy is longer than active life expectancy. And there has been greater compression of unhappiness than compression of morbidity. There are substantial differentials in happy life expectancy by sex and race because of differential prevalence rates of happiness. Women and whites had longer years of total and happy life expectancies at most ages and dates, while men and blacks had greater proportions of happy life expectancies across the three decades. Although race differentials generally decreased at older ages and with time, relative disadvantages of blacks persisted.     

魏晋南北朝时期中原城市与聚落的变迁

魏晋南北朝时期的中原城市及其发展水平,主要是通过都城规划布局与都城制度反映出来的。曹魏建立五都之制,是中国古代都城史上的一个创举,其中邺城的都城布局对后世影响甚大。北魏洛阳无论在都城规划、城市布局等方面均体现出承传、变异、创新的特点,在中国古代城市发展史上占有重要地位。魏晋南北朝时期,一种以村为代表的新型聚落形态遍布于中原大地,成为除了城镇之外在乡村中最清晰可辨的实体。村的形成存在着两条不同的路径:一是从聚落到村落的演变,这是社会常态下的自然演变路径;二是从屯田、坞壁到村落的演变,这是社会动乱状态下的非自然演变路径。魏晋南北朝时期上述两个路径既互相交叉,又各有其阶段性特征。     

A dynamic macro social indicator model of changes in marriage, family, and population in the United States: 1947–1974

This paper presents an integrated 21-equation model of how marriage, family, and population conditions, as indexed by macro social indicators, affect each other and are affected by other social, demographic, and economic forces. An opportunity structures theoretical paradigm is applied to the specification of dynamic structural equations for determining changes (both trends and cyclical fluctuations) in marriage formation and dissolution, family and household composition, fertility, mortality, population growth, and population distribution. The equations are estimated on annual national data for the United States during the post-World War II years 1947 to 1972, and then they are used to make conditional forecasts of the values of some of the endogenous variables for 1973 and 1974. It is found that the equations fit the observed data well, lack demonstrable autocorrelation of disturbances, and forecast the 1973 and 1974 values usually with less than 2% error. Strategies are sketched for further refining some of the equations, and it is suggested that this model should be integrated into a larger societal model in order to estimate some of the effects of changes in demographic phenomena on other social conditions.     

Occupational stratification,job-mismatches,and child poverty: Understanding the disadvantage of Black immigrants in the US

This study examines the implications of occupational stratification and job mismatches for the welfare of children, using data from the 2005–2009 American Community Survey. The results show that Black children of immigrants have household heads that are more likely to have occupations with low SEI scores than children in US-born households. More importantly, they demonstrate that intersections between parental job-mismatches and employment in the bottom rather than upper levels of the occupational distribution have important implications for understanding poverty differences among children. Job mismatches within occupations with low SEI scores are associated with greater poverty risks among Black than White, Asian, or Hispanic children of immigrants. However, racial poverty disparities are considerably lower among children with household heads in the highest occupational strata.     

Canadian Biotechnology Start-Ups, 1991–1997: The Role of Incumbents' Patents and Strategic Alliances in Controlling Competition

Fligstein (1996) contends that organizations act to exploit the institutional context in which they are embedded so as to stabilize the competition they face. Drawing on Fligstein's theoretical analysis, we conceptualize incumbent biotechnology firms' patenting and alliance-building activities as attempts to stabilize and control potential competition and analyze how these activities shape rates of founding in the Canadian biotechnology industry. We find that increases in the level and concentration of incumbents' patenting discourage founding, particularly in human application sectors of the industry where development and approval processes are more costly and time consuming. Incumbents' horizontal alliances depress start-ups; vertical alliances stimulate start-ups. Our findings highlight how technology appropriation and strategic alliances structure the competitive dynamics and evolution of high-technology, knowledge-intensive industries.     

Social and Economic Distress in Large Cities, 1970–1990: A Test of the Urban Crisis Thesis

This paper is a test of the urban crisis thesis, which argues that the social and economic conditions of large cities have continued to deteriorate since 1970. In addition, we examine the factors that account for differences in social distress among the cities. Finally, we investigate the regional location effect on urban social distress. In general the findings show both cross-sectionally and longitudinally that (1) the urban crisis has become worse over the years; (2) differences in social distress among cities are largely a function of economic distress, urban scale, and regional location; and (3) levels of distress have converged among cities in the old industrial North (the Rustbelt) and the South and West (the Sunbelt). In fact, the most distressed cities in the country are in the Sunbelt.     

The Variable Effects of Family Background on the Timing of First Marriage: United States, 1969–1993

Longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics for a sample of 6570 women and men observed between 1969 and 1993 are used to examine historical changes and life-course variation in the effects of family background characteristics on the timing of first marriage. Discrete-time event history analyses reveal that the inverse effect of parental resources (family income and mother's education) on the timing of first marriage has both declined over time and weakens as children age. Historical declines in the effect of parental resources on first marriage timing appear to explain the divergence between Black and White marriage patterns over this period. In contrast, the inverse effect of experiencing a nonintact family structure during childhood on the timing of first marriage remains constant over both historical time and the life course. The implications of these findings for theories of demographic individuation and life-course perspectives are discussed.     

The academic attitudes of American teenagers, 1990–2002: Cohort and gender effects on math achievement

Using data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 and the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002, I compare the academic attitudes of high school students from Generation X and the Millennial Generation. I then analyze the effects these attitudes have on mathematics achievement test scores. Compared to the earlier group, students in the later cohort were less likely to indicate academic reasons for attending school and largely perceived their friends as being less engaged academically. Students in both cohorts whose friends held academic values experienced an increase in math scores. The more students in the earlier cohort disagreed that they came to school for academic reasons, the more their math scores decreased; this relationship did not appear for the later cohort. Females in each cohort showed stronger academic attitudes than males; additionally, believing that popularity was important was associated with lower test scores for females, but not males, in the Millennial cohort.     

The Age Structure of Male Suicide Rates: Measurement and Analysis of 20 Developed Countries, 1955–1994

Publication of 19th-century age- and gender-specific suicide rates (Morselli, 1882, Table XXIX) and similar 20th-century suicide rates (World Health Organization 1956, Table 4) invited comparative study of the age structures of suicide, but Girard's 1993 article was the first detailed effort to construct a measure of age structure that would allow systematic comparative analysis of cross-national data. We replaced Girard's qualitative typology with a quantitative measure of age structures. We then tested the theory that economic development is a key to understanding the age structure of suicide. We found no difference between these structures around 1850 and those in industrialized countries more than a century later. Differences between the male age structure of suicide in the United States and the other 19 developed countries in the 1955–1994 period were measured. We also found that change in the age structure in each country between 1955–1964 and 1985–1994 was statistically significant in 19 of the 20 countries. Over this period the share of total suicides to men ages 15–44 increased in nearly all countries, while the share to men 45–74 declined. Regression analysis using measures of societal integration, the culture of suicide, and the 1955–1964 suicide rate successfully predicted the 1985–1994 age structure in 18 of 20 countries.     

从道式“人类聚居学”看中国大城市的人居环境

随着经济的发展,世界上很多国家已经完成了城市化的进程。在城市化趋势越加明显的中国,人居环境的建设正在不断地发展中,我们需要了解目前人居环境的发展现状。通过对研究道萨迪亚斯"人类聚居学"理论的研究,对中国大城市的人居环境进行探讨,力图找到适合中国大城市人居环境发展的方式。     

魏晋南北朝孔府承爵问题研究

自汉高祖首封孔腾为奉祀君,孔子后裔承袭爵位以奉宣尼祀成为中国历史上的一个重要内容。由于孔府地位的特殊性,其爵位的承袭相当严格,在正史和孔氏族谱中的记载十分详实,传承脉络也基本清晰,但魏晋时期的正史史料中却出现了一个与族谱记载不同的传承体系,使得原本明朗的爵位承袭体系蒙上了一层迷离的面纱。有必要结合相关史料,对其中缘由进行推测论证,以期这一历史迷案清晰化。     

长三角经济增长中土地贡献的现状和趋势——对长三角主要特征城市的实证分析

本文选取长三角地区有代表性的特征城市,并对其经济增长中土地要素的贡献及作用趋势进行核算和分析.结果表明,土地贡献率及其趋势与城市的经济规模和发展程度存在负相关性.本文据此提出,完善土地利用制度,制定科学和严格的城市发展规划,有助于长三角城市尽快摆脱粗放式发展,进入集约和可持续发展的良性轨道.     

Wealth Accumulation across the Adult Life Course: Stability and Change in Sociodemographic Covariate Structures of Net Worth Data in the Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1984–1991

This paper reports microlevel Tobit regression analyses of sociodemographic covariates of the life course accumulation of total household net worth data in eight waves of five distinct panels—spanning over 6 years from late 1984 through early 1991—of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). It is found that the quadratic age–wealth relationship predicted by Modigliani's Life Cycle Hypothesis is evident in aggregate age–median wealth profiles as well as in the micro data for households with positive net worth. However, when adult status attainment variables are entered into the regression models either by themselves or in combination with marital/family status variables, the age of household head at which net worth begins to decline is far beyond the typical retirement age. In addition, the traditional criterion variables of sociological status attainment theory—educational attainment, occupational status, and earnings—are found to be positively associated with household net worth, although the net effect of occupational status generally is not statistically significant and the earnings effect is nonlinear. Further, consistent with status attainment theory, householder minority status (black, Hispanic) is negatively associated with the accumulation of net worth. It is found that both single male and single female householder status are negatively associated with the accumulation of household net worth (relative to married couple households) as is the size of the household (measured by the number of children under age 18 present). Separate logistic regression analyses show that households with zero and negative net worth are more likely than households with positive net worth to be black and have low earnings. Higher levels of educational and occupational status attainment reduce the probability of zero net worth but not the probability of negative net worth. Male- and female-headed households and households headed by Hispanics also are more likely to have zero net worth, but not negative net worth. The estimated sociodemographic covariate structures of household net worth are found to exhibit substantial stability across both waves and panels in the SIPP—although effects of the 1990–1991 recession are detectable in estimates for the 1990 panel. Possible applications of the estimated models in demographic projections of household net worth are suggested.     

产业发展的集群化、融合化和生态化分析

产业的集聚发展、相互间渗透发展以及产业持续发展构成了新世纪产业发展的主旋律。分析和探讨产业发展集群化、融合化和生态化的内在含义及其相互关联性,对把握我国未来产业发展的前景具有重要的现实意义。     

The expansion of religious affiliation: An explanation of the growth of church participation in the United States 1850–1930

This paper focuses on the period in U.S. history that experienced the most rapid rate of increase of church membership—the decades between 1850 and 1930—in order to explain synchronic and diachronic variation in those rates. Using pooled cross-sectional time series analysis, different predictions are derived and tested from theories of secularization/social control, comparative disadvantage, resource mobilization, and pluralism. The effects of spatial diffusion and the momentum of religious tradition also are estimated. Our conclusion is that religious monopoly—not diversity—fuels religious expansion. This finding is bolstered by the complementary result that ethnic homogeneity is also conducive to religious expansion. Together these results highlight the importance for mobilization of religious and ethnocultural dominance in a particular niche.     

魏晋南北朝时期隐士素质分析

魏晋南北朝时期的隐士们,因淡于名利,生活方式独特等,平均寿命较一般人长。他们著书立论,聚徒讲学,传播文化,又兼通儒、释、道三学并有融合三学的思想倾向。其归隐的心理因素有多种。     

魏晋南北朝文论中的"丽"及相关范畴

在魏晋南北朝时期,"丽"(包括"华"、"艳"、"采"、"绮靡"、"妍媚"等)被看做是诗、赋及其他所有文章的一个重要特征,尚"丽"成为一种审美风尚.这一风尚在中国美学发展史上有着独特的价值.但一味地追求"丽",也使文学创作产生了一些流弊,"丽而不淫"、"辩丽本于情性"即是对一味尚"丽"的矫正.     

论魏晋南北朝时期的“四季”诗

魏晋南北朝时期,诗歌创作获得巨大发展。那时的中国,一年四季,四季分明,不同季节具有不同的气候特点、物候特征。众多诗人感应着四季不同的物候变化,感物兴思,诗情勃发,创作了大量季节特点鲜明的四季诗。相较而言,春秋二季,气温变化最明显,物候变化最显著,人们的情思也最活跃,所以成为诗歌创作的丰收季节。而夏冬二季,气候炎热或冷寒,人们的思维活动受限,情思也就较为单一,诗歌创作也就稍逊许多。     

魏晋南北朝僧诗的历史文化价值

魏晋南北朝是中华文化大规模碰撞、交汇的历史时期,是中国传统文化儒、释、道三教相对自由发展的阶段。魏晋南北朝僧诗是在上述历史背景之下产生的多元文化混合体,这是它在中国诗歌类型发生学意义上的主要特点。对魏晋南北朝僧诗的解读可以从一个侧面印证佛教文化是如何由客体文化向中华文明主体文化的补充地位递进,以及佛教话语如何影响并转化为中国文化及民众日常思想表达形式。因此,研究僧诗,重在发掘其历史文化价值。