谈人口纵向分析法

从人口学科发展的历史来看,纵向分析法晚于横向分析法;第二次世界大战后,纵向分析在人口分析中的重要性和必要性才被人口学家们承认和接受。纵向分析法在人口学中的应用始于婚姻和生育的研究。 纵向人口分析的资料来源有两个途径。一是对人口进行回顾性调查;二是对某一人口进行跟踪性的观察登记。     

试论人口学史研究的对象、意义和方法

<正> 人口学史是人口学体系中的一门学科,它研究人口学产生、发展的历史过程,探索其中的规律性,进而预见人口学未来发展的趋向。近几年来,我国学术界在人口学史领域的研究中取得了一定成果,与其它人口分支学科蓬勃发展的态势相比,人口学史领域略显冷落。本文试就人口学史研究的对象、意义、方法等问题做初步探讨。     

三十年来中国人口学方法发展的三大特点

人口学在研究方法上具有鲜明的特色,人口学方法是人口学学科体系的重要组成部分之一。按照《中国大百科全书》的界定,人口学方法是指研究人口自身发展规律和人口与社会、经济、环境诸因素间内在本质联系的方法论,以及对其数量关系进行调查、统计、分析、研究所运用的各种方法的总称。国内外经典的人口学教材和著作认为人口学方法包括人口学方法论、数据收集／调查方法、统计分析方法、数理分析方法、人口学模型、间接估计方法以及为了研究人口现象从其他学科引入的各种新方法等。     

人口系统论

一、建立人口系统论的必要性 当今世界,由于人口问题比较突出,人口学者们大都把目光移向人口的实证研究,而对人口理论则不够重视。但每门科学都需要有基本理论作为指导,人口学也不例外。为了促进人口学科及其应用的发展,必须重视人口理论研究。     

对人口学学科体系的重新认识

人口学是一门方兴未艾的朝阳科学 ,2 1世纪正是人口科学的用武之时 ,人口学科学体系构成的研究是人口学研究中的重要环节。国内外学者对人口学学科体系的认识并不统一 ,对重大人口学问题的看法也有待商榷。人口学分支学科是人口科学研究进一步深入的载体 ,是人口科学发展与创新的新的增长点     

“历史人口学”在国外

历史人口学是第二次世界大战后形成和发展起来的一门新兴边缘学科。它介于历史学与人口学之间,是两者相互渗透、相互结合的产物。历史人口学以历史上人口过程及其发展规律为主要研究对象。诸如人口数量变动,人口成分、密度和流动问题,人口再生产的历史过程,以及人口政策史、人口思想史等都属于它的研究范围。历史人口学     

略论人口结构学的研究

人口学的知识体系中有许多分支学科,诸如人口经济学、人口社会学、人口统计学、人口生态学、人口史、人口思想史、人口理论和方法、人口系统工程学、人口地理学、民族人口学等等。近两年来,我国社会科学工作者和人口理论工作者以及一些自然科学工作者,对人口学各分支学科的研究已经取得了初步成果。但是,至今人们对于人口学中的另一支分支学科人口结构学却还没有引起足够的重视。尽管,在探索人口发展规律、进行人口发展的定量分析、开展人口普查和统     

当代人口学学科体系研究

主　编　吴忠观　副主编　李永胜　刘家强西南财经大学出版社 2 0 0 0年 9月出版　　本书是国家社会科学基金“九五”规划重点项目 ,共 4篇 2 6章 ,36万字。本书系统地介绍了西方早期的人口研究到人口学的产生 ,再到当代人口科学体系形成的历史过程 ,并把当代人口学学科体系划分为方法论各分支学科 ,理论类各分支学科 ,应用类各分支学科三大类别。分别介绍了人口学方法论、人口统计学、现代人口分析技术、数理人口学、人口的社会调查方法、人口社会学、人口经济学、人口生物学、人口地理学、质量人口学、人口生态学、人口思想史、民族人口学…     

中国人口科学发展的二十年(续)

三、改革开放二十年来中国人口科学所取得的成就改革开放初期,我国人口学学科是在人口控制任务十分严峻的特定历史条件下建立的,人口学研究局限于计划生育工作,对我国人口发展的认识停留在如何有效控制人口迅速增长上,研究的范围狭窄、方法简单、理论单一。经过二十年...     

十年来中国高校人口学研究与教育的发展——兼谈与联合国人口活动基金的合作成果

概述 中国社会科学界公认这样一个事实:十年来人口科学在中国社会科学领域内显得最活跃最开放,是恢复和发展最快的学科之一。虽然目前人口科学在中国尚属发展中的年轻学科,但经过近些年的发展,高校人口学的研究与教学工作已初具规模,初步形成了具有特色的科研和教学体系。这一成就也是与联合国人口基金的合作分不开的。     

What is applied demography?

Applied demography has recently gained recognition as an emergent specialization among practicing demographers. We argue that applied demography is intrinsically distinct from basic demography because it exhibits the value-orientation and empirical characteristics of a decision-making science while the latter exhibits the value-orientation and empirical hallmarks of a basic science. Distinguishing characteristics of applied demography are based on the context in which it places precision and explanatory power relative to time and resources as well as the fact its substantive problems are largely exogenously-defined, usually by customers. The substantive problems of basic demography, on the other hand, are largely endogenously-defined, usually by academic demographers. Moreover, basic demography is primarily concerned with offering convincing explanations of demographic phenomena and tends to view time and resources as barriers to surmount in order to maximize precision and explanatory power. This context is very different from the one in which applied demography is embedded, which views explanatory power and precision in terms of doing what is necessary to support practical decision-making while minimizing time and resources. We examine this conceptualization of applied demography in terms of the methods and materials that fall within its purview and discuss some important consequences, including research agendas and training programs. We conclude by posing several important but unanswered questions about the actual and potential scope of applied demography and discuss some of the implications inherent in these questions.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Demographic Association, 20 October 1995, Richmond, Virginia, USA.     

The contours of demography: Estimates and projections

This paper considers the scope of demography and the various research approaches that legitimately could claim the label. As a small field lacking security in academic structures, demography has been unusually sensitive to demand factors, including those associated with perceived population problems. International health is cited as an area of increased demographic presence; reasons for this development are explored. The technology for performing research in demography is improving more rapidly than in many other areas of the social sciences, and thus is helping to improve the relative standing of the field. Taking a demand-oriented approach, the paper identifies several promising research areas in which demographers will be called on to address issues of national and international concern.     

Demographics: people and markets

The basics of demography are now basic to us business as well. Demographics combine demographic data with socioeconomic and geographic factors to help business and other managers know the market for their goods and services. This pamphlet explains market, product, and site analyses, discusses data sources and resources, and includes case studies involving major corporations. Post-war population trends have had an enormous impact on consumer and labor markets, bringing home to business the importance of taking advantage of demographic shifts. Advances in computerized access to data describing changes and increased consciousness of their economic significance has spurred the application of demographic knowledge by managers and the growth of the demographics information industry. The pamphlet describes the resources and methods of demographics including the creation and use of demographic data products.     

Spatial Demography: An Opportunity to Improve Policy Making at Diverse Decision Levels

The number of applications of spatial demography has been growing mostly since the 1990s. Ranging from simple visualization to sophisticated spatial analytical techniques, these applications bring a new layer of explanation to demographic phenomena. This paper reviews demographic studies that specifically addressed space with spatial statistical models, and that focused on fertility, mortality, migration, and population models. Additionally, it summarizes different spatial datasets and software freely available, as well as the challenges that exist for the development of spatial demography applications. These challenges include confidentiality issues, scale problems, and the lack of training on spatial analysis in population centers. Although the first and second challenges involve modeling and technical solutions, the latter depends only on demographers’ commitment and willingness to promote change. Several topics for future spatially focused research are also outlined. Finally, the paper makes a strong case regarding the significant contribution that spatial demography can make to the monitoring, evaluation, and implementation of population policies.     

Testing Evolutionary Hypotheses with Demographic Data

An ecological evolutionary viewpoint offers new perspectives on contemporary demographic problems in general and on population–environment issues in particular. In turn, rich and detailed human demographic data can help solve problems of interest in evolutionary theory. Such data have been analyzed in greatest detail in studies of traditional and historical societies. Evolutionary approaches using historical data go beyond small‐sample anthropological studies to the application of the evolutionary approach to large datasets, and illuminate important similarities between small‐scale traditional societies and large modern populations living in evolutionarily novel environments. This article provides a concise update of the breadth of questions and hypotheses of likely interest to demographers and others that evolutionary theorists address using a variety of traditional and historical datasets. It suggests opportunities for additional collaborative work between evolutionary theorists and historical demographers and highlights topics relevant to modern demography.     

Historical Demography: Achievements and Prospects

Historical demography as a separate discipline came into existence when family reconstruction was first developed for the analysis of a pre-transition population. This paper assesses the significant achievements made in this field of population studies since then. Attention is also paid to equally significant findings obtained from aggregative analysis based on back projection, and to a large body of research results for the period of the demographic transition. In the last part of the paper, new research directions are discussed. Data issues as well as methodological ones are raised. Special attention is given to newly emerging Asian historical demography where different source materials require different methods and techniques, which in turn are expected to broaden the scope of the so far disproportionality fertility-oriented field. Finally, discussions are extended to economic, cultural and institutional aspects of the subject, with a plea not to isolate demographic analysis from other branches of historical research.     

Historical demography: achievements and prospects

Historical demography as a separate discipline came into existence when family reconstruction was first developed for the analysis of a pre-transition population. This paper assesses the significant achievements made in this field of population studies since then. Attention is also paid to equally significant findings obtained from aggregative analysis based on back projection, and to a large body of research results for the period of the demographic transition. In the last part of the paper, new research directions are discussed. Data issues as well as methodological ones are raised. Special attention is given to newly emerging Asian historical demography where different source materials require different methods and techniques, which in turn are expected to broaden the scope of the so far disproportionality fertility-oriented field. Finally, discussions are extended to economic, cultural and institutional aspects of the subject, with a plea not to isolate demographic analysis from other branches of historical research.     

人口学是一门具有广泛应用价值的很有发展前途的科学

人口学的社会认知形象不清或偏狭 ,对人口学的地位、作用和学科发展造成了不利的影响 ,也是造成我国目前人口学研究萎缩的重要原因之一。人口学是一门很年轻的、在我国还远远没有被开发的很有发展前途的科学。应以市场经济为背景 ,从深化人口学的学科研究、专业人才培养和应用开发三个方面来解决当前人口科学发展问题。     

Promises and Pitfalls of Using Digital Traces for Demographic Research

The digital traces that we leave online are increasingly fruitful sources of data for social scientists, including those interested in demographic research. The collection and use of digital data also presents numerous statistical, computational, and ethical challenges, motivating the development of new research approaches to address these burgeoning issues. In this article, we argue that researchers with formal training in demography—those who have a history of developing innovative approaches to using challenging data—are well positioned to contribute to this area of work. We discuss the benefits and challenges of using digital trace data for social and demographic research, and we review examples of current demographic literature that creatively use digital trace data to study processes related to fertility, mortality, and migration. Focusing on Facebook data for advertisers—a novel “digital census” that has largely been untapped by demographers—we provide illustrative and empirical examples of how demographic researchers can manage issues such as bias and representation when using digital trace data. We conclude by offering our perspective on the road ahead regarding demography and its role in the data revolution.     

中国人口学科国际化水平及其影响因素

国际化是学科成熟与发展的一个重要指标。但是作为世界人口第一大国,中国人口学科的国际化并没有发展到一个相对应的水平。在界定了学科国际化概念的基础上,借助问卷调查数据来分析中国人口学科国际化的现状,探讨中国人口科学继续与国际学界融合所面临的困难及其主要原因。结果表明,中国人口学的国际化明显处于不断萎缩的态势,其直接动因和深层次缘由分别是整个人口学界的国际化意识与能力的减弱,以及人口学科文化与制度本身存在的缺陷。加强国际化的学科文化建设与建立相配套的学科制度是提高中国人口学科国际化水平的重要途径。