次贷危机前后国际原油市场与中美股票市场间的协动性研究

本文运用基于动态条件相关的多元GARCH(DCC-MVGARCH)模型,对美国次信贷危机发生前后国际原油市场和中、美股票市场间的协动性变化进行了研究。实证结果表明在次信贷危机发生后,国际原油市场与中、美股票市场间的协动性有了明显的增强,不同市场间的波动具有明显的传导作用。国际原油市场与美国股市的协动性相对于中国股市波动性更强,说明冲击在国际原油市场与美国股市间的传导更强烈,其协动性对冲击的反应更敏感。另外,运用偏最小二乘方法(PLS)对影响国际原油市场和中、美股票市场的诸多因素在次信贷危机爆发前后对协动性解释能力的变化进行了分析,结果发现次信贷危机对这些因素的解释能力有明显的影响。     

Market opportunities and threats to the U.S. pork industry posed by traceability systems

This paper demonstrates that the U.S. pork industry is lagging its principal international competitors and major international customers in terms of developing programs for traceability, transparency, and assurance (TTA). The primary areas of weakness in U.S. TTA programs are at the producer-level and in the area of providing consumers quality assurance regarding inputs used in producing pork products. We conclude that the U.S. pork industry may diminish its competitive advantage in world pork markets if it fails to enhance its TTA programs.     

How does homeland security affect U.S. firms' international competitiveness?

This paper frames the issue of homeland security and its relationship to the international competitiveness of U.S. firms in general. This is largely a conceptual statement, identifying the areas of national security (homeland security) that are key to business, and exploring the management concerns of business to the new threats and opportunities that have arisen.We establish the point that homeland security is a purposeful, conscious, and rational response to terrorist events that is an emergent and evolving systems phenomenon. This systems approach is an especially useful way to look at the implications of homeland security in its relation to business. We then look specifically at the kinds of costs and risks that are generated for U.S. international business (exports, imports, incoming and outgoing investments) as a result of this phenomenon. Management strategies for dealing with these costs and risks are explored for U.S. firms.Our conclusion is to demonstrate the scope of analysis that is needed to understand and to managerially cope with the homeland security problem. We show the value of using theory from various disciplines for analyzing a multi-dimensional problem like this. And finally we are able to recommend some policy dimensions for both companies and the U.S. Government toward mitigating the negative impacts of the homeland security problem.     

Expert Views on Biological Threat Characterization for the U.S. Government: A Delphi Study

Biological threat characterization (BTC) involves laboratory research conducted for the purpose of biological defense. BTC research is important for improving biological risk assessment and informing resource prioritization. However, there are also risks involved in BTC work, including potential for escape from the laboratory or the misuse of research results. Using a modified Delphi study to gather opinions from U.S. experts in biosecurity and biodefense, this analysis explores what principles and safeguards can maximize the benefits of BTC research and ensure that it is conducted safely and securely. Delphi participants were asked to give their opinions about the need for BTC research by the U.S. government (USG); risks of conducting this research; rules or guidelines that should be in place to ensure that the work is safe and accurate; components of an effective review and prioritization process; rules for when characterization of a pathogen can be discontinued; and recommendations about who in the USG should be responsible for BTC prioritization decisions. The findings from this research reinforce the need for BTC research at the federal level as well as a need for continued review and oversight of this research to maximize its effectiveness and reduce the risks involved. It also demonstrates the need for further discussion of what would constitute a “red line” for biothreat characterization research—research that should not be performed for safety, ethical, or practical reasons—and guidelines for when there is sufficient research in a given topic area so that the research can be considered completed.     

Managing Risk at the Tucson Sector of the U.S. Border Patrol

This article describes a risk analysis used to inform resource allocation at the Tucson Sector of the U.S. Border Patrol, the busiest sector for alien and drug trafficking along the Southwest land border with Mexico. The model and methodology that underlie this analysis are generally applicable to many resource allocation decisions regarding the management of frequently occurring hazards, decisions regularly made by officials at all levels of the homeland security enterprise. The analysis was executed by agents without previous risk expertise working under a short time frame, and the findings from the analysis were used to inform several resource allocation decisions.     

Can Sisyphus Succeed? Getting U.S. High‐Level Nuclear Waste into a Geological Repository

The U.S. government has the obligation of managing the high‐level radioactive waste from its defense activities and also, under existing law, from civilian nuclear power generation. This obligation is not being met. The January 2012 Final Report from the Blue Ribbon Commission on America's Nuclear Future provides commendable guidance but little that is new. The author, who served on the federal Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board from 1989 to 1994 and subsequently on the Board on Radioactive Waste Management of the National Research Council from 1994 to 1999, provides a perspective both on the Commission's recommendations and a potential path toward progress in meeting the federal obligation. By analogy to Sisyphus of Greek mythology, our nation needs to find a way to roll the rock to the top of the hill and have it stay there, rather than continuing to roll back down again.     

Effects of the Canada-U.S. Trade Agreement on U.S. agricultural exports

This paper investigates the effects of the Canada-U.S. Trade Agreement (CUSTA) on U.S. exports of agricultural products. Econometric analysis found that CUSTA has had a large impact on many U.S. agricultural export categories. All of the consumer-oriented products (except wine and beer), five of the intermediate products, and four of the bulk products had significant CUSTA effects. It is clear that the CUSTA effects have been larger for consumer-oriented food products. There is also evidence that U.S. affiliate sales in Canada have stimulated U.S. exports of consumer-oriented products and intermediate products.     

An exploratory analysis of global managerial mindsets: a case of U.S. textile and apparel industry

Increase in business across international borders has led to many studies demonstrating the need for “global” managers. However, few operational frameworks for a global mindset have been proposed. This paper discusses the characteristics of such a global mindset in terms of conceptualization/contextualization abilities. In particular, the paradigm developed by Kefalas [Thunderbird Int. Bus. Rev. 40 (6) (1998) 547-561] was used to determine whether managers in U.S. textile and apparel industries can be defined as “globally minded”. Empirical results indicate that U.S. managers scored higher on conceptualization than on contextualization. The study demonstrates the importance of training on the development of global mindsets and the need for U.S. managers to improve their abilities in adapting to the local context, i.e., contextualization. It is recommended that global corporations should place more emphasis on the training of these skills prior to international assignments of their managers.     

以美国为参照的国际性技术外溢的经济效果研究

首先,以影响母国技术溢出和东道国吸收同化的8项指标为主要依据,使用因子分析法对26个选定国家进行综合排序,并选取了基于美国技术外溢的11个主要接受国.其次,在对技术知识存量和技术同化能力的度量方法进行描述后,将美国单独作为技术溢出方,测算了11个主要接受国通过进口贸易、FDI和人员交流3种无形(直接)外溢渠道,从美国吸收的外溢技术知识存量.最后,将11个主要接受国从美国吸收的知识存量总和的面板数据纳入广义Cobb-Douglas生产函数中进行研究.结果显示,美国的国际性技术外溢在各国经济发展中发挥了积极的作用.     

International investment motivations of U.S. wineries

This study used personal and telephone interviews of wine industry executives and observers to examine the foreign direct investment motivations of U.S. wineries. Underlying most winery motivations was the recognition that U.S. wineries sense increasing pressure to offer a competitive range of wines that meet the price/quality needs of consumers and retailers in important markets and market segments. Wineries’ marketing plans are often constrained by their ability to obtain adequate grape and juice supplies that meet important price and quality criteria, especially when domestic grape production drops. The importance of product portfolios and the industry’s resource dependence have placed tremendous pressures on U.S. wineries to coordinate winegrape and juice acquisitions, especially as retailers consolidate their supply chains. Some U.S. wineries have invested abroad in response to these pressures while others have not. Interview results suggest that foreign investments by U.S. wineries were primarily motivated by the need for greater access to stable or adequate winegrape/juice supplies, the need for more control over the winegrape costs within given quality levels, and the desire to expand wine portfolios.     

Choosing between international technology licensing partners: An empirical analysis of U.S. biotechnology firms

This paper examines the potential factors that might influence U.S. biotechnology holders’ licensing decisions regarding whom to choose as foreign licensing partners in the context of a global environment. The important explanatory factors relate to the knowledge appropriability regime of the licensee country (i.e. strength of IPR protection), familiarity through prior interaction, business similarity between partners, and prior independent experience as a licensor. U.S. biotechnology firms also license technology more to partners who have joint manufacturing, marketing, and research and development (R&D) experience. The results show that transaction cost considerations weigh heavily when choosing international licensing partners.     

Foresight activities in the U.S.A.: Time for a re-assessment?

This article reports on a brief, informal, reconnaissance study of ‘foresight’ activities now being conducted in the private sector and the Federal government. Such activities include: external environmental assessment, internal organizational assessment, direction setting, definition, and selection of base and contingent plans, implementation, performance evaluation and feedback. The study involved the reading and analysis of the existing literature and discussions with over 50 people in diverse private and public sector organizations. The objective was to determine what foresight activities are being done, how, by whom, with what results, and what are the implications and options.     

Long-term planning in the U.S.S.R.

This article illustrates the U.S.S.R. approach to long-term planning and the relationship of cooperative planning within the Comecon countries. The conception of planning which the author puts forward is comprehensive and is illustrative of what is being attempted at the macro level in the centrally planned economies.     

Risks of Hazardous Waste Sites versus Asteroid and Comet Impacts: Accounting for the Discrepancies in U.S. Resource Allocation

Approximately $6 billion is spent annually in the United States on the cleanup of sites regulated under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA, or Superfund). The current health risks posed by such sites are thought to be quite small; the expenditures are justified primarily as protecting hypothetical future residents of these sites. Approximately 0.05% of this amount, or $3 million, is spent annually by the U.S. government on the detection of asteroids or comets that could strike the earth. Such damaging impacts do occur from time to time--most recently in 1908 in an unpopulated region of Siberia--but no person is confirmed ever to have died as a result. Anticipated impacts over the course of 1 million years would yield deaths that, when annualized, total approximately 4,000 per year. The risk reduction goal for CERCLA is 15 orders of magnitude greater than that for asteroid/comet detection. A modest increase in resources devoted to asteroid detection would greatly increase the chances of early detection of a threatening object, allowing an effective defense to be attempted. This article argues that the much lower risk-to-resources ratio for CERCLA cleanups than for asteroid and comet detection can be explained by four primary factors: (1) the regard for future generations, since CERCLA benefits mainly the unborn; (2) concrete fears, since toxics are much more feared than asteroids or comets; (3) the source of the threat, since toxic contamination is caused by human beings, unlike impacts from space objects; and (4) the greater political constituencies for hazardous waste cleanup than for space object detection.     

The benefits and costs of U.S. employer COVID-19 vaccine mandates

In 2021, the Biden Administration issued mandates requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for U.S. federal employees and contractors and for some healthcare and private sector workers. These mandates have been challenged in court; some have been halted or delayed. However, their costs and benefits have not been rigorously appraised. This study helps fill that gap. We estimate the direct costs and health-related benefits that would have accrued if these vaccination requirements had been implemented as intended. Compared with the January 2022 vaccination rates, we find that the mandates could have led to 15 million additional vaccinated individuals, increasing the overall proportion of the fully vaccinated U.S. population from 64% to 68%. The associated net benefits depend on the subsequent evolution of the pandemic—information unavailable ex ante to analysts or policymakers. In scenarios involving the emergence of a novel, more transmissible variant, against which vaccination and previous infection offer moderate protection, the estimated net benefits are potentially large. They reach almost $20,000 per additional vaccinated individual, with more than 20,000 total deaths averted over the 6-month period assessed. In scenarios involving a fading pandemic, existing vaccination-acquired or infection-acquired immunity provides sufficient protection, and the mandates’ benefits are unlikely to exceed their costs. Thus, mandates may be most useful when the consequences of inaction are catastrophic. However, we do not compare the effects of mandates with alternative policies for increasing vaccination rates or for promoting other protective measures, which may receive stronger public support and be less likely to be overturned by litigation.     

Analyzing the Homeland Security of the U.S.-Mexico Border

We develop a mathematical optimization model at the intersection of homeland security and immigration, that chooses various immigration enforcement decision variables to minimize the probability that a terrorist can successfully enter the United States across the U.S.-Mexico border. Included are a discrete choice model for the probability that a potential alien crosser will attempt to cross the U.S.-Mexico border in terms of the likelihood of success and the U.S. wage for illegal workers, a spatial model that calculates the apprehension probability as a function of the number of crossers, the number of border patrol agents, and the amount of surveillance technology on the border, a queueing model that determines the probability that an apprehended alien will be detained and removed as a function of the number of detention beds, and an equilibrium model for the illegal wage that balances the supply and demand for work and incorporates the impact of worksite enforcement. Our main result is that detention beds are the current system bottleneck (even after the large reduction in detention residence times recently achieved by expedited removal), and increases in border patrol staffing or surveillance technology would not provide any improvements without a large increase in detention capacity. Our model also predicts that surveillance technology is more cost effective than border patrol agents, which in turn are more cost effective than worksite inspectors, but these results are not robust due to the difficulty of predicting human behavior from existing data. Overall, the probability that a terrorist can successfully enter the United States is very high, and it would be extremely costly and difficult to significantly reduce it. We also investigate the alternative objective function of minimizing the flow of illegal aliens across the U.S.-Mexico border, and obtain qualitatively similar results.     

The implications of internationalisation for the management of the vehicle components industry in Britain,Germany, Japan and the U.S.A.

The vehicle components industry, which in recent years has become subject to a more international pattern of competition, provides a good example of how internationalisation forces companies to re-appraise their strategic priorities. The industry's breadth and complexity afford rich international comparisons and suggest conclusions of broader relevance.Thirty British vehicle component manufacturers and thirty from Germany, Japan and the U.S.A. were matched on the basis of six specific components. Field research, entailing discussions with senior executives and factory visits in all four countries, was complemented with desk research analysing the industry more comprehensively.The dramatic decline in company performances, particularly in Britain, reflects over-reliance on higher-level strategies such as diversification, acquisitions, mergers and industrial consolidation, the pursuit of scale economies and the restoration of financial positions through restructuring and retrenchment. Internationalisation calls for competitive strategies that are coherent in the face of powerfully supported international rivals, and generally requires greater market focus. Secondly, basic issues such as manning levels and productivity, quality and flexible manufacturing systems have increased in importance due to radically improved international standards of best practice, established by countries such as Japan.     

相对杠杆与股票收益的相关性研究——来自中美市场的实证分析

本文结合考虑公司融资决策参考依赖特征及资本结构动态调整行为,构造相对杠杆这一新的财务杠杆度量指标重新检视了财务杠杆在资产定价中发挥的作用,并将中美市场进行对比分析.研究表明,相较于实际杠杆,相对杠杆能更好地解释股票溢价,在中美市场均表现出对股票收益的显著正向影响,但同时也存在差异性.在中国市场账面相对杠杆的股票溢价解释能力较弱,而在美国市场账面相对杠杆仍与股票收益显著正相关;在中国市场过度杠杆对股票收益的影响明显强于杠杆不足,而在美国市场两者表现出较为对称的影响;同时在中美市场以不同方式在Fama-French三因素模型中引入相对杠杆定价因子所得到的定价模型能显著提升原模型的定价能力,有更好的定价表现.     

Using simulation to illuminate process improvement opportunities in a U.S. naval aircraft overhaul facility

Fleet Readiness Center Southwest (FRC SW) is the largest aerospace industrial complex in the U.S. Navy. The FRC SW conducts maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) activities on five major airframes with many of them being more than 20 years old. With demand for the aircraft in the field high, management at FRC SW were under enormous pressure to shorten the turn-around times of aircraft – the time between an aircraft being inducted for overhaul and the time it was returned to the warfighter for use in active military operations. Leadership at FRC SW requested the development of a simulation model that would incorporate all the important aspects of the complex and variable operating environment of their MRO facility and lend insight into how various factors and changes could affect the throughput time of aircraft across the facility. This research describes how the development and use of a simulation model uncovered several significant opportunities for management at FRC SW to increase turn-around time. The model also illuminated where simple policy changes could eliminate the need for additional capital investments, and where additional capital was needed the model indicated where it would yield the greatest return.     

Trends in the wind: Lessons from Europe and the U.S. in the development of wind power

Wind power has emerged as the world's fastest growing electricity generating technology, and yet, it is a resource which remains largely untapped. Years of technological improvements have helped it to become a more viable power source, yet challenges remain in spurring its continued growth.This article examines whether the combination of government policies to curb global climate change and a deregulated electric utilities industry are enough to continue the growth of wind power. By examining lessons from both the U.S and Europe, we begin to see some of the dominant obstacles and opportunities in this burgeoning industry as well as the opportunities for non-utility firms seeking to reduce CO₂ emissions in power use.