Pleas,priors, and prison: Racial/ethnic differences in sentencing

Final case disposition and sentencing decisions for whites, blacks, and Chicanos are modeled with event-history data from the State of California. Dynamic analyses are used to link processing models and theories. The three-way interaction of (1) pleading guilty × (2) racial/ethnic group membership × (3) the extent of prior court experience on rates of moving through the legal system is assessed, controlling for other legitimate and nonlegitimate influences. In a jurisdiction handling large numbers of defendants representing diverse racial/ethnic and cultural groups under determinate sentencing, the timing of legal processing is shown to be critical. Results demonstrate that pleading guilty increases the speed of processing most when sentences do not involve incarceration, though this effect is not found for second or later arrests of Chicanos. Generally, theories of resource mobilization receive greater support than cultural stereotyping.     

Some models of response uncertainty for panel analysis

Data of L. M. Wiggins from three-wave panels, each with a single dichotomous response, illustrate the use of models with response probabilities that vary over occasions or over individuals, or neither, or both, with a “no interaction” combination of the two being specified for the last case, which can also be derived from the Rasch measurement model. Models more complicated than these, allowing for changes in individual parameters (interaction of occasions and persons) or serial dependence of responses are considered when the Rasch-type model does not adequately describe the data.     

Cohorts,education, and the evolution of tolerance

Normative and social structural explanations for changes in tolerance are tested using racial attitude items from 11 surveys between 1958 and 1978. Over the 20 years, while there were changes in the overall levels of racial tolerance, there were also changes in the upper and lower ends of a tolerance spectrum which differentially depended on cohort and educational effects. Regardless of the position in the tolerance spectrum, most of the change in racial attitudes resulted from across-the-board changes in all cohort and educational groups. The most racially conservative end of the spectrum was slightly eroded by increased educational attainment in the population, while the most racially liberal position was somewhat advanced by cohort replacement. In the final analysis, the normative perspective demonstrated the greater potential for applications to other, more complex, configurations of tolerance.     

Resources,homophily, and dependence: Organizational attributes and asymmetric ties in human service networks

This paper examines the effects of organizational attributes on power/dependence relations in interorganizational dyads. Exchange and homophily theories are discussed as two alternative perspectives on the processes that give rise to such effects. The data pertain to interagency ties in three community-based networks of youth service agencies and are analyzed via a new strategy of linear modeling dyadic relations. The results of the analysis suggest that size, administrative position, and justice system connections condition the extent to which an agency initiates and receives ties of influence, assistance, and support. Moreover, these relations are more frequent between agencies with similar treatment ideologies and client racial makeup. Finally, size and justice system access are found to reduce agency dependence on a network's administrative core. In the course of the discussion, a number of related issues and findings are discussed.     

Dynamic models and attainment in the workplace

The two most marked trends in recent stratification studies are: (1) the shift away from a statical approach to attainment and toward a dynamical representation of achievement, and (2) the shift away from the assumption that achievement is largely a matter of individual characteristics, and toward the view that achievement is the outcome of an employer-employee exchange of productive resources for earnings and status. This paper forges a link between these parallel trends by elaborating on previous formulations of dynamic models of achievement and applying the results to the analysis of earnings attainment in an internal labor market. The modeling section of the paper joins within a single framework the growing interest in ascertaining how a given structure of opportunity shapes achievement and in determining the different points in the career line at which individual background and resource variables impact attainment. Special attention is devoted to the problems facing researchers who wish to bring a dynamic conceptualization of achievement to cross-sectional or otherwise deficient data. Although the empirical application of the various models is largely meant to be illustrative, it is of interest in its own right because it goes substantially beyond previous efforts in this area.     

Effects of repetition and consistency of personalization treatments on response rate in mail surveys

One unequivocal finding of past research has been that follow-ups improve response rates in mail surveys. Several ways to construct sophisticated data collection systems using follow-ups in combination with other response-improving techniques are discussed, giving rise to the issue of whether repetition of techniques in each follow-up is more effective than single use in the first mailing. Two experiments were conducted to examine the effects of repeated versus single implementation of personalization of the outside envelope. A consistent use of personalization procedures in each mailing obtained a higher response rate than an inconsistent one, consisting of personalization of the first mailing with impersonal follow-ups. A second experiment showed repeated personalization to be more effective than repeated impersonal mailings.     

Career mobility as a Poisson process: An application to the career dynamics of men and women in the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency from the Civil War to World War II

Poisson process models of upward mobility in job rewards are developed and estimated using event history techniques on data from one organization over a period of 80 years. The models developed permit the inclusion of independent variables which vary over a person's career and are used to analyze differences in the mobility of men and women. The main findings are (1) the career dynamics of men and women are similar in general form, both best described by a segmented, heterogeneous, and nonstationary Poisson process; (2) parametric differences exist between the models for men and women in terms of how certain independent variables affect the rate of arrival of opportunities to move up in the reward hierarchy and in terms of how others affect the rate of being given or taking advantage of such opportunities; and (3) both men and women appear to benefit by being in competition with one another for available opportunities. Theoretical interpretations of these results are discussed in relation to differences in the flow of opportunities to locations in the reward hierarchy occupied predominantly by men versus those occupied predominantly by women.     

Population growth and the birth squeeze

Birth squeezes result from an imbalance in the number of males and females in the childbearing ages, and can have a significant impact on the level and distribution of births. To measure the effects of a birth squeeze, the observed male and female age-specific birth rates were distinguished from the underlying fertility magnitudes, which reflect the mutual propensity of males and females of specified ages to have a child. The fertility magnitudes, readily expressible in terms of the birth rates, are nonetheless independent of the age-sex composition of the population, while the birth rates are affected by compositional changes. The two-sex Total Fertility Rate, TFR2, the average of the male and female TFRs, is advanced as a summary measure of fertility independent of the birth squeeze, and a simple index, U, is defined to measure the severity of the squeeze. Analyses involving stable population models, alternative population projections, and the birth squeezes found in contemporary populations documented the importance of the birth squeeze for studies of fertility. In particular, the size of the distortions introduced by the birth squeeze was seen as related to the level of fertility itself. In high-fertility populations, the birth squeeze depresses observed female age-specific birth rates, and thus conventional measures can significantly underestimate the fertility reduction needed to end population growth.     

Separating age,period, and cohort effects in white U.S. fertility, 1920–1970

Four models are developed to describe the odds transformation of period- and age-specific fertility rates as products of age, period, and cohort effects. These are applied to data for white U.S. women age 15–44 from 1920 to 1970, with equal weights given to each rate. All models which include age fit subsets of the data extremely well. Per effect, the incorporation of periods improves the fit much more than the incorporation of cohorts. It is shown that first differences are invariant in two-effect models, and second differences are invariant in the three-effect models.     

The effect of restricted and unrestricted verdict options on juror choice

Data on the effect of limiting the number of verdict options open to jurors on the probability of acquittal are reanalyzed. Strong support is found for a model which postulates that jurors' preferences are single peaked with respect to an underlying verdict severity continuum. Limited support is found for an anchoring effect in which the addition of new verdict options affects the perceived relative fairness of other verdict options. The implication of the single-peakedness model is that some jurors will refuse to vote for conviction if the verdict (punishment) is seen as too harsh even though the defendant is perceived to be guilty of committing a crime.     

Internal labor markets, promotions, and worker skill: An indirect test of skill ILMs

The determinants of intrafirm mobility within the internal labor markets (ILMs) of one large, regional bank and one small town bank are examined. The literature on the banking industry suggests that internal labor markets exist there, and that job changes within these markets are based on the development of skill rather than on seniority. It is suggested that in skill ILMs, promotions will be a positive function of the employees' duration in the present job; while in a seniority-based ILM, promotions will be a positive function of tenure with the firm prior to the present job. These findings, for men but not women, support the hypothesis that skill rather than seniority-based ILMs are present in each bank. The findings for women suggest that they work in “firm” or secondary labor markets. While the two banks are similar in the way other factors determine mobility, differences are also found which may be explained by the size and sectoral location of each bank.     

Bringing the cops back in: A study of efforts to make the criminal justice system more responsive to incidents of family violence

This paper examines the ways in which the criminal justice system typically responds to incidents of violence between adult members of the same household and then using a three equation, nonrecursive time series model considers the impact of efforts in one locale to improve law enforcement practices. Three questions are addressed: (a) can the apparent underreporting of domestic violence by police be improved; (b) can the quality of information funneled from police to the District Attorney's office be enhanced; and (c) can the number of offenders held accountable for their actions be increased?     

Canonical analysis and optimal criterion validity scaling

This article suggests methods for forming linear composites which will have either optimum (maximum) criterion validity or an optimum ratio of valid to reliable variance. These methods may be of interest to researchers whose data contain substantial systematic but invalid components. These techniques are formally related to canonical correlation analysis, and the output from standard canonical correlation computer programs can be directly used in forming the composites.     

Scaling the prestige,authority, and income potential of college curricula

This paper develops the concept of “targeted education,” a theoretical ranking of college curricula, into a multidimensional framework. The new scales, based on the traditional stratification dimensions, prestige, authority, and income, are then used in a study of sex differences in the process of occupational achievement among men and women with college degrees. The targeted education scales predict occupational prestige and wages 7 years after the college degree, and they point out interesting differences between male and female attainment processes. In general, targeted education has a greater quantitative impact for men's occupational outcomes than for women's prestige and income, but results also suggest significant qualitative differences between men and women. A large proportion of women target their education toward, and end up in, an under-employed labor pool for the primary and secondary school system.     

Changes in reinforcement contingencies and the disruption of social exchange

Social exchange, reinforcement, and equity theories suggest that several forms of change in social reinforcement contingencies should disrupt social interaction. A laboratory experiment compared the disruptive effects of three forms of contingency change on social exchange in the dyad: (1) the addition of an individual contingency as an alternative reward source, (2) reduction in the magnitude of rewards from social exchange, and (3) a change from equitable to inequitable exchange. All three forms of change were more likely to induce deviation than a control condition of no change. Of the three forms of change, contingency addition produced the most sustained disruptions and reward reduction the shortest disruptions; inequity was intermediate. The same rank order, although nonsignificant, was observed for probability of initial deviation. Subjects' responses to postexperimental questionnaires suggest that reward reduction and inequity produced the kinds of emotional responses predicted by exchange and equity theories, but these reactions do not appear to mediate the effects on deviation.     

Some considerations concerning the functional form of earnings

The problem of choosing the correct functional form of earnings has plagued studies of social inequality and labor market segmentation. Although this choice has often been made on superficial grounds, the results presented in the current paper demonstrate that this choice has very significant implications for the empirical findings that emerge from the study of earnings determination. Four functional forms of earnings are compared: dollar earnings, earnings rank based on social perceptions as calibrated by P. Coleman and L. Rainwater (1978, Social Standing in America, Basic Books, New York) the natural logarithm of earnings, and the best-fitting power function transformation of earnings as estimated by the Box-Cox technique. Evaluation of a generalized earnings determination model on a sample of private sector employees produces very similar results across these four functional forms of earnings. More divergent results are obtained when the models are compared across subsamples based on class, economic sector, and gender. Significant contrasts between earnings coefficients across groups are much more likely when utilizing log earnings or the Box-Cox power transformation than when using either dollar earnings or perceived earnings. In addition, the contrasts observed for log earnings and Box-Cox earnings are frequently in the opposite direction of those observed for dollar earnings or perceived earnings. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for theoretical developments in the study of social inequality and labor market segmentation.