感知风险对在线旅游产品购买意愿的影响分析

旅游电子商务发展迅猛,互联网购物平台的虚拟性和远程性强化了消费者感知风险,它也成为影响旅游电子商务发展的重要因素之一.文章聚焦消费者感知风险,运用SPSS 19.0及AMOS 21.0软件,构建以5个维度的感知风险为自变量、购买意愿为因变量、信任为调节变量的结构方程模型,探讨变量间相关关系.结果发现:感知风险对信任的影响差异较大,仅经济风险感知与信任呈显著负相关;感知风险对购买意愿总效应皆呈负相关;信任作为中介变量存在明显的调节作用,有效地降低了感知风险对购买意愿的负向影响.     

Life events,genetic susceptibility,and smoking among adolescents

Although stressful life events during adolescence are associated with the adoption of unhealthy behaviors such as smoking, both social circumstances and physical traits can moderate the relationship. This study builds on the stress paradigm and gene–environment approach to social behavior by examining how a polymorphism in the serotonin transporter gene 5-HTTLPR moderates the effect of life events on adolescent smoking. Tests of interaction hypotheses use data from the Family Transitions Project, a longitudinal study of 7th graders followed for 5 years. A sibling-pair design with separate models for the gender composition of pairs (brothers, sisters, or brother/sister) controls for unmeasured family background. The results show that negative life events are significantly and positively associated with smoking. Among brother pairs but not other pairs, the results provide evidence of gene–environment interaction by showing that life events more strongly influence smoking behavior for those with more copies of the 5-HTTLPR S allele.     

Life events and psychological well-being: A reexamination of theoretical and methodological issues

Longitudinal data, taken from the Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics, are used to examine the effect of specific life events on changes in psychological well-being. The paper deals with methodological criticisms raised against past research on life events and addresses several theoretical questions regarding the types of events that are most stressful. The findings indicate that a wide variety of events, including employment related events, residential moves, and household composition changes, are associated with negative changes in psychological well-being and that the context in which events occur is a major factor in determining their effect on psychological status.     

Panel data and models of change: A comparison of first difference and conventional two-wave models

The method of first differences as an approach to modeling change is described and it is compared to more conventional two-wave panel models. Substantial advantages are found to the first-difference approach, especially if there are unmeasured, unchanging predictor variables in the model. It is also argued that there are substantial problems in the interpretation of results from the conventional two-wave models. Some of the analytic results are illustrated with a number of applications to the area of stressful life events.     

基于TAM2-IDT的大学生生鲜电商消费意愿研究

近年来,生鲜电商逐渐兴起,为消费者带来了更加多样的生鲜消费模式.受制于较低的消费能力及较小的生活活动范围,大学生生鲜消费习惯与其他消费者相比,其生鲜电商普及率不高.大学生群体是未来的消费主力,校园市场有引领社会青年市场发展方向的作用.研究哪些因素影响大学生生鲜电商消费意愿,以及大学生群体消费意愿与其他群体有何不同,对生鲜电商行业发展具有重要意义.基于TAM2-IDT理论模型实证分析的结果显示,大学生生鲜电商消费意愿受感知有用性、感知信任和态度的直接影响,受感知易用性、个人创新性和社会影响的间接影响,且感知有用性和态度在其中起中介效应,其中感知信任、社会影响和个人创新性的影响作用在大学生与其他消费者之间差异明显.最后,根据研究结果对生鲜电商行业在大学校园市场中的发展提出建议.     

高校思想政治教育视域下大学生生命教育探析

近年来,社会上大学生自杀事件频发,大学生群体漠视生命、自我放弃生命的做法令人堪忧。本文首先解析生命教育在思想政治教育领域的释义,接着阐述大学生生命教育的缺失。然后在思想政治教育的背景下,探究大学生思想政治教育与生命教育的契合点,寻求大学生生命教育的实现路径。旨在呼吁高校教育体现人文关怀,实现全面发展的教育理念,呼吁大学生重视生命存在。培育正确的生命观,树立积极的人生态度,提升人生价值,进而落实以人为本的科学发展观和构建社会主义和谐社会的时代要求,展现新时代背景下思想政治教育工作的理念要求。     

罗马帝国前三朝军队干政现象原因探析

作为罗马帝国统治的重要支柱,军队在国家政治生活中发挥了巨大的作用。在朱里亚—克劳狄王朝时期,军队干政现象十分严重,主要表现是:禁卫军参与皇帝废立和公元68~69年行省军团发动叛乱。其主要原因是:帝国初期,统治基础相对薄弱;尚未建立一套行之有效的皇位继承制度;兵源素质低下,士兵待遇较差;以及皇帝对军队的过分依赖和纵容等。而到了在弗拉维和安敦尼王朝时期,军队干政现象很少发生。其主要原因是:皇权的加强和帝制的巩固;军队成份发生了改变;军人待遇和服役条件得到改善;皇帝加强了对军队的有效控制等,从而使军队在大部分时间里都保持了相对稳定。     

试评我国公共卫生管理的相关政策

文章评析了《突发公共卫生事件应急条例》的主要内容具有的理论与实践意义;结合社会突发公共卫生具体事件,揭示出我国当前公共卫生管理中存在的问题及根本原因,是主体责任的缺失;在理论上,从生命与人权的高度赞颂了党和政府对人民生命健康的关怀及社会的文明进步。     

养老保险政策的微观模拟

养老保险制度改革的方案已成为社会和学术界关注的热点, 为此, 我们提供了一个动态微观模拟模型, 用于分析我国的养老保险政策。模型通过一系列生命事件和政策实施事件更新微观个体状态, 宏观经济总量是微观个体状态的自然累积。应用长春市的微观数据, 我们进行了养老保险政策的模拟实验。实验结果表明: 实施现行的养老保险政策, 将导致养老金收支出现严重赤字;适当地延长法定退休年龄或提高养老金筹集比率, 能够使养老金收支趋于平衡, 且财政补贴趋于平滑。     

Producing adulthood: Adolescent employment, fertility, and the life course

Adolescent employment is typically framed as having either positive or negative effects. Yet cutting edge research yields apparently contradictory results; work lowers delinquency but also increases school dropout. Both opportunity cost and life course development theories could explain these results. This study investigates effects of employment on fertility among adolescent women, which pits life course development against opportunity cost theory. Using 2006 and 2007 American Community Surveys, individual instrumental variable and state-level difference-in-difference models (following the same cohort over time) control for self-selection and find a positive effect of employment on adolescent fertility. National Vital Statistics birth data confirm state-level results. Results for fertility (and some evidence for other early transitions) indicate that youth employment speeds the transition to adulthood, supporting life course theory. Findings suggest adolescent employment should be reconceived as promoting adult rather than positive or negative behavior.     

Analyzing social processes: Life tables and proportional hazards models

A number of techniques useful in describing and modeling social processes are detailed. Emphasis is placed on the analysis of changes in categorical variables as they occur in continuous time. The procedures considered are mainly non-parametric, although parametric alternatives do exist when the appropriate distributional assumptions are met. Specifically, life tables and proportional hazards models are discussed and illustrated through an analysis of first live birth intervals for a sample of white American women. The generality of proportional hazards models is outlined by considering extensions of the basic model to include competing risks, time-dependent covariates, and repeatable events.     

A multivariate analysis of response structure: Race attitudes, 1972–1977

A particular kind of latent class model is used to characterize the unobservable variable measured by six discrete indicators of racial stance in 1972 and 1977. Methods recently introduced by Clogg and Goodman, 1982, Clogg and Goodman, 1983) for the simultaneous latent structure analysis of two multidimensional contingency tables are employed in across-year homogeneity tests on the latent class proportions. Trends in multivariate response patterns over the 5-year interval are then examined by cross-classifying the predicted latent variable with selected demographic characteristics of respondents in each year. The results indicate that (1) no significant changes in the distribution of the latent variable occurred over the 5-year time period, and (2) the status of certain demographic variables as predictors of racial stance fluctuated between the two survey years.     

基本生活保障制度实践中农民的主观体验与政府信任的构建——来自贵州省的实证调查

农民对基本生活保障制度的主观体验与政府信任之间存在一定的内在逻辑。实证研究的结果表明：农民在对农村基本生活保障制度的主观体验上呈现出对制度认知的匮乏性、权利意识的淡薄性、冲突应对方式的趋消极性和暴力性、功能意识的工具性、社会参与意识的缺失性、社会公平感的低落性等特征。在这一新的制度实践中,农民对政府的信任程度偏低,且受农民的主观体验的显著影响。在所考察的一系列主观体验因素中,对制度的认知、公平意识和对冲突应对方式的选择与农民对政府的信任程度正相关,权利意识则与农民对政府的信任程度负相关。     

The social organization of criminal justice processing: An event history analysis

Crimes are social events that involve citizens and control agents interacting over time. Prior work neglects the dynamic and interactive qualities of these criminal events. Drawing from the work of Hawley and others, it is suggested that the processing of criminal events is a routine activity socially organized in time and space. Dynamic modeling techniques developed by N. Tuma are applied to longitudinal data collected on over 10,000 criminal events in California cities and used to model rates of transition from arrest to case disposition resulting from police release, prosecutor denial of complaint, or going to court. As the work of Hawley predicts, city size has much to do with the way criminal events are processed. For example, in larger cities it is demonstrated that crime specialists are processed more slowly than nonspecialists, and that each successive police processing of crime specialists results in slower rates of transition relative to nonspecialists; in smaller cities, it is demonstrated that black suspects are processed more quickly than whites, and that each successive police processing of black suspects results in faster rates of transition relative to whites. The former findings are explained in terms of rationalized intelligence gathering, the latter in terms of stereotyping and the harassment of minorities. The systematic form of the observed temporal changes, notwithstanding a large number of legal and extralegal variables taken into account, leads us to believe that we have identified important patterns of police activity. These and other findings convince us that the social organization of criminal justice processing deserves further study.     

Black people don't exercise in my neighborhood: Perceived racial composition and leisure-time physical activity among middle class blacks and whites

Using a sample of middle class blacks and whites living in urban and suburban areas, this article focuses on how perceptions of the racial composition of neighborhoods influence leisure-time physical activity. Using an ordinal representation of an underlying continuous indication of the perceived percentage of blacks and whites within an egocentric neighborhood, the results show that black men are significantly less likely to be physically active in neighborhoods perceived as predominately white. Alternatively, they are more likely to be physically active in neighborhoods perceived as racially diverse and predominately black. Conversely, for black women, white women, and white men, physical activity increases as the perception of one's neighborhood becomes increasingly white. Black women are significantly less likely to engage in physical activity in neighborhoods perceived as predominately black and urban. Drawing upon the intersectionality framework, I discuss how perceptions of criminalization and safety lead to different levels of leisure-time physical activity for middle class black women and men relative to their white middle class counterparts.     

The effect of informal caregiving on social capital investments

Social capital is a resource derived from a person's social network and is important for various outcomes. Social capital declines over time and requires investments to avoid further declines or to increase the stock. However, certain life events can negatively affect social capital. This paper analyzes how informal caregiving, defined as unpaid assistance to persons who cannot perform the usual activities of daily living without help, affects social capital investments. Drawing on the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) with data for 15 years, I apply fixed-effects (FE) regressions to estimate the effect of changing caregiving status (extensive margin) and the effect of an additional hour of caregiving (intensive margin) on social capital investments. The results show that caregiving negatively affects investments in social capital for weak and strong ties unrelated to the care task. Furthermore, caregiving increases investments in strong ties that are care related.     

社会性别公正发展下女博士生导师状况评析

女性博士生导师作为高知识分子的顶尖人才,其发展状况不仅是一个社会学问题,也关系到人才发展战略问题。教育部2009年的统计数字显示,女性科研人员占博士生导师、硕士导师的比重偏低,整个分层体系呈现倒T字形。科学实体的不健全以及棘轮效应、马太效应、管道渗漏效应、排队插队效应等制约了中国女性进入博士生导师领域的进程。而性别社会意识的缺乏是根本原因。建议完善博导制度,真正实现妇女在高等教育中的作用,从而促进全人类教育的发展。     

Psychiatric expansionism and social control: the intersectioin of community care and state policy

Informed by the theories of political economy and professional interests, this research argues that psychiatric commitments to community care and to scientific categorization have contributed to expanding control of the mentally ill, and that these ideological commitments run parallel to and are exacerbated by state responses to macro-economic conditions. Time series analysis of the period from 1932 to 1975 is used to assess the relative impact of deinstitutionalization, medical entrenchment, and state fiscal policy on psychiatric expansionism. The findings demonstrate that a professional interests explanation (indicated by a commitment to community and to science) provides a significant contribution to a materialist-based explanation of expanding psychiatric control.     

网络群体性事件概念解析

网络群体性事件是一定数量的网民为了特定目的围绕热点问题,在网络公共领域大规模汇聚意见进而影响现实生活的群体性事件。在历史沿革上,网络群体性事件是群体性事件的类型之一,具有规模性、冲突性、集群性、制度外行动、人民内部矛盾等特征;在要素构成上,具有鲜明的网络属性:发生空间在网络公共领域、主体是网民、客体是适合网络传播的热点事件、形式是意见的网络汇聚。     

树立健康信念 增进自我效能——浅谈健康信念模式在公共卫生社会工作中的应用

公共卫生社会工作者通过有组织的活动可以引导人们树立健康的信念,建立健康的生活模式。健康信念的树立和以下环节有关:对于疾病易感性的知觉;对于疾病严重性的知觉;对于采取行动益处的知觉;对于采取行动可能遇到障碍的知觉;自我效能。健康信念模式从主体期望的角度来描述人们的行为,可以成为卫生社会工作者指导干预、促进健康行为形成的重要理论框架。