Infant mortality in London, 1538-1850: a methodological study

A review of evidence on infant mortality derived from the London bills of mortality and parish registers indicates that there were major registration problems throughout the whole of the parish register period. One way of addressing these problems is to carry out reconstitution studies of individual London parishes, but there are a number of problems with reconstitution methodology, including the traffic in corpses between parishes both inside and outside of London and the negligence of clergymen in registering both baptisms and burials. In this paper the triangulation of sources has been employed to measure the adequacy of burial registration, including the comparison of data from bills of mortality, parish registers and probate returns, as well as the use of the same-name technique. This research indicates that between 20 and 40 per cent of burials went unregistered in London during the parish register period.     

Bridal pregnancy in rural England in earlier centuries

Abstract A sample of 3,786 marriages, recorded in the parish registers of 77 rural and semi-rural parishes in 24 English counties during the period 1540-1835, is investigated. 49% of the marriages can be followed through to a maternity recorded in a baptism-entry in the baptism register of the same parish, i.e. the parish of marriage. Of these brides traced to a maternity, roughly one-third had their maternity recorded within eight and a half months of marriage and were therefore probably pregnant at marriage. When allowance is made for delayed baptisms, and for brides whose pre-maritally conceived pregnancy terminated in an abortion or stillbirth and hence went unrecorded, the proportion of 'traced' brides pregnant may approach one-half. Turning to the 51% of marriages untraced to maternities in this investigation, for a large number (perhaps two-thirds) the most likely explanation is the removal ofthe married couple from the parish of marriage before maternity occurred, for reasons unconnected with the bridal condition. It is concluded that there is direct and detailed evidence in the parish registers that more than one-sixth of all brides were pregnant at marriage, and that it can be reasonably deduced from the direct evidence that in fact about one-third were pregnant. The proportion of brides pregnant in the earlier centuries (before 1700) appears to have been only about one-half of that in the later centuries. Regionally, the highest rate in both periods appears to have been in the northern four counties. The social interpretation of these bridal pregnancy rates poses many problems for the social historian.     

Age at baptism in pre-industrial England

Abstract The adequacy of English parish registers as demographic sources has been a subject for much debate.(1) Most attention has been directed to the problem of how far the population at large continued to use the sacraments ofthe Established Church in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, especially in areas affected by urban growth or Nonconformity. But the more general problem of how far the ecclesiastical registers of ceremonies are acceptable substitutes for registers of vital events also deserves some attention.     

Age at baptism in pre-industrial England

The adequacy of English parish registers as demographic sources has been a subject for much debate.¹ Most attention has been directed to the problem of how far the population at large continued to use the sacraments ofthe Established Church in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, especially in areas affected by urban growth or Nonconformity. But the more general problem of how far the ecclesiastical registers of ceremonies are acceptable substitutes for registers of vital events also deserves some attention.     

Bridging the gap: Determining long-term changes in infant mortality in pre-registration England and Wales

Much effort has been expended in analysing a small sample of parish registers to produce national estimates of infant mortality for the period 1570–1840. However, in an age when inter-parish variations in infant mortality were considerable, national trends often obscured local and regional differences. By analysing data from the initial years of Civil Registration (1839–1846) together with infant mortality rates from a range of parishes, it is possible to assess the extent of variation and change in England and Wales during the period 1580–1840. The geographical variations in infant mortality and the age structure of infant deaths were sufficient to suggest that the most important influence on whether infants survived was disease environments.     

Estimating the Expectation of Life at Old Ages: Comments on the Article by Mitra

Family reconstitution studies assess demographic behaviour for that section of the population that remains in the parish of their birth. Although there has been considerable discussion of whether or not these non-migrants are representative of the population as a whole, the distorting effects of migration censoring have not been adequately considered. This paper shows that even when the demographic behaviour of non-migrants is identical to that of the general population, migration-censoring will significantly bias family reconstitution results. In particular, existing family reconstitution studies underestimate both age at marriage and life expectancy. The paper assesses the potential magnitude of bias introduced by migration, and suggests several new techniques for correcting the errors.     

Population and social structure in a Bedfordshire parish: The Cardington listing of inhabitants, 1782

Abstract This paper describes some of the main social and demographic characteristics of a Bedfordshire parish in the second half of the eighteenth century. It is based on an analysis of the 'Listing of Inhabitants' of Cardington in 1782, and on the use of the parish registers. The listing does not allow an analysis of the entire population of the parish. Its most serious deficiency is the failure to give sufficient detail for the upper social strata of the parish population, viz. the residents of 'farm tenements' and a small number of other properties likewise poorly documented. In the main, the data given in the article refer only to the residents of 'cottage tenements'. They represent the majority of the parish population, but omit the small group at the top of village society. For the 'cottage tenement' population a number of conclusions are drawn. Within this population there was an overall excess of females over males, but the excess was slight, and the number and proportion of males and females in each age-group balanced quite closely. 43-44% of the population of known age were less than 15 years old, and almost half the population were aged between 16 and 60 years. An analysis of marital status tentatively suggests that adult celibacy was rare. The average number of residents per 'cottage' household was only a little higher than the average size of family, confirming that only a small proportion of households contained more than one family. Household and family size may have been larger among craftsmen than labourers, with the households and families of the former containing more resident offspring than those of the latter. About one in every three marriages was either a broken marriage or are-marriage. A reconstitution of certain 'cottage tenement' families tentatively suggests an average of over five baptisms per family. Yet there were only two resident offspring per family in 1782. The difference may be explained by the high level of infant and child mortality, with one-third of all baptised children failing to reach the age of 15 years, and by the high degree of population mobility, albeit over short distances.     

The impact of water supply and sanitation on infant mortality: Individual-level evidence from Tartu,Estonia, 1897–1900

Evidence from a number of historical studies has demonstrated a strong impact of the provision of clean water on mortality risks, while no clear effect has been reported in others. We investigated the relationship between water supply, sanitation, and infant survival in Tartu, a university town in Estonia, 1897–1900. Based on data from parish registers, which were linked to the first census of the Russian Empire, the analysis reveals a clear disadvantage for infants in households using surface water, compared with families that acquired water from groundwater or artesian wells. The impact is stronger in the later stages of infancy. Competing-risk analysis shows that the effect is more pronounced for deaths caused by diseases of the digestive system. Our findings suggest that it may have been possible to improve the water supply, and consequently reduce infant mortality, before the introduction of piped water and sewage systems.     

Yet another inquiry into the trustworthiness of eighteenth-century London's Bills of Mortality

This is an enquiry into how eighteenth-century London's Bills of Mortality were compiled. It concludes that while they remain tolerably accurate in aggregate, particularly when considered over a number of years, they are liable to be very misleading if particular localities or parishes are considered. They are a record of registered burials-not deaths-of most of those who had been baptised as Anglicans, so they omit some burial grounds within London, and some dissenters. Crucially, they are most misleading guides to those who had died in one parish but whose family chose to have them buried in another. Several London parishes deliberately undercut their neighbours by charging lower burial fees to attract custom; others opened extra-parochial burial grounds. St Martin-in-the-Fields offers an example of the latter from 1806, but the scale of the new burial ground was not large and it was mainly confined to those who had died in the workhouse. Much more significant was the neighbouring parish of St Anne Soho, which at its peak period in the 1760s to the 1790s was alone handling the equivalent of between 2 and 5 per cent of all Anglican burials within the total area of London's Bills of Mortality. This was only one, though perhaps a particularly egregious, London parish, while the export of corpses to one's erstwhile 'home' parish demonstrates why the Bills cannot be trusted in their detailed geography, as well as providing a warning to all English population historians confronted with a sudden fall or rise in their burial totals.     

Population statistics and population registration in Norway. Part 1. The vital statistics of Norway: An historical review

From olden times in Norway, as also in Sweden and Denmark, the church official in each parish has kept the official registers of marriages, births and deaths, and has produced the records which form the basis of Norwegian vital statistics.     

Bias in Age at Marriage in Family Reconstitutions: Evidence from French-Canadian Data

Age-at-marriage estimates from family reconstitutions may be biased downward when they are based only on marriages of people who continue to live in their parish of birth, because when the probability of migrating rises with age, younger people are selected in preference to older ones. Micro-simulations show that the bias can have dramatic effects. In this paper French-Canadian data are used to investigate the importance of the bias and to verify empirically the micro-simulation results. Although a high proportion of people moved between birth and marriage, the bias had virtually no effect, given the specific characteristics of the migrations. If one cannot avoid discussing the timing of migration before marriage, when measuring age at first marriage using only data on “stayers”, it is just possible that in most settings, it is the same for those who lived in their parish of birth, and those who had moved.     

Measures and effectiveness in controlling omission of reports on infant deaths in Shanghai metropolitan areas]

The infant mortality rate is a sensitive indicator of a country's or area's economic, cultural, and health care conditions, and in particular, it reflects the quality of health care for women and young children. Since liberation, great progress has been achieved in Shanghai's health and medical care in general as well as in health care for women and young children, and the infant mortality rate has dropped notably. However, the omission of reports on infant deaths is still a very serious problem. In order to control such omissions in reporting, the Shanghai municipal government and Department for Public Health have improved the methods of reporting deaths. Health care units are required to fill out a report on births and deaths, and census registers in the city government are responsible for registering all new births and deaths and preparing complete statistics on new births and deaths. At the end of each year, special investigators are sent to various hospitals to check on omissions of reports on infant deaths and they also help households to report infant deaths to census registers. The new measures have proved to be very effective. According to a new report released in 1980, the omission of reports on infant deaths has been reduced by 94.01% as compared with the 1972 statistics.     

Aspects of the demographic situation in seventeen parishes in Shropshire 1711-60. An exercise based on parish registers

The area chosen for study was the Coalbrookdale coalfield, a fairly closely knit community north of the Severn at Ironbridge, and at that time undergoing industrialization, based on the Darby works in the Dale. It is believed to have been a fairly closed population, little affected by migration, and with little nonconformist influence. All the registers are available in printed form. There were few gaps of much significance, and they were filled by linear interpolation wherever possible. All information was recorded on standard forms and may be summarized as follows:

Baptisms show severe setbacks in 1728-9, 1741-2 and 1756-7. There is a marked excess of male baptisms. There was an increase in illegitimacy over the period, and observed levels were higher than, for instance, in recent French studies. The vast majority of children were those of local residents, a few from adjacent villages.

Marriages exhibit fewer fluctuations than baptisms. There were minor booms, in 1730 (following high mortality), and in 1756-7. The great majority of marriages were between people of the same parish. Only 11 per cent involved one or both partners not resident in the county. The proportion of marriages where one partner was not ‘of this parish’ actually falls towards the end. It is not known whether this was a real movement or due to attempts to enforce the Settlement Laws.

Burials show the most pronounced fluctuations. There were peaks of burials in 1728-9, 1741-2 and 1757-8. Children were counted separately, according to definitions used in previous studies. Over 40 per cent of all burials were those of children. Infants were counted where it was possible to check on the baptisms of buried children. In these villages about a third of the child burials were those of infants of about one year old or less. There is a tendency for child burials to rise over the period, but this may be due to more accurate registration later. Where marital status could be determined in three parishes, only 2·5 per cent of women buried were spinsters. The sex ratio of deaths is similar to that of baptisms. The ratio of male burials to females is highest in infancy and then falls. 98 per cent of those buried were ‘of this’ or of the adjoining parish.

Different fertility calculations were made giving ratios of either 5·18 or 5·43 baptisms per marriage in the related period.

The fifty years were marked by long-term growth, with three pronounced peaks of natural increase (1716-25, 1731-45, 1746-55). For the whole period there was an excess of either 40 or 46 baptisms over each roo burials.

An attempt was made to reconstruct total population at each point. A starting figure of about 11,500 people was established for 1676 from the Compton census, the hearth tax returns being found unsuitable. Various growth models were tried to see which would fit the observed facts. Constant growth rates were found unrealistic, but a formula was found which allowed for the wave-like movements during the observed period. It is shown that if baptisms ware inflated by 15 per cent to arrive at births, and burials by 10 per cent to find deaths (as in previous studies), it is possible to calculate a population of 11,500 in 1720 and roughly 20,000 in 1760, with intermediate figures tallying with the observed natural increase or desrease, and a plausible set of birth rates (between 30 and 42 per thousand) death rates (between 16·1 and 43·5 per thousand, the latter figure in 1729), and marriage rates between 4-6 (in years of disaster) up to 10·5 (in the recovery year 1730).     

Mortality inequality in two native population groups

A sample of people aged 40-67 years, taken from a longitudinal register compiled by Statistics Finland, is used to analyse mortality differences between Swedish speakers and Finnish speakers in Finland. Finnish speakers are known to have higher death rates than Swedish speakers. The purpose is to explore whether labour-market experience and partnership status, treated as proxies for measures of variation in health-related characteristics, are related to the mortality differential. Persons who are single, disability pensioners, and those having experienced unemployment are found to have substantially higher death rates than those with a partner and employed persons. Swedish speakers have a more favourable distribution on both variables, which thus notably helps to reduce the Finnish-Swedish mortality gradient. A conclusion from this study is that future analyses on the topic should focus on mechanisms that bring a greater proportion of Finnish speakers into the groups with poor health or supposed unhealthy behaviour.     

Mortality transition in the Ovamboland region of Namibia, 1930-1990

Few long-term statistical series exist that can document the mortality transition in Africa. This paper uses data from the parish registers of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in Namibia to study morality in Ovamboland between 1930 and 1990. The paper identifies significant discontinuities and reversals in the trend in mortality. Much of the mortality transition occurred in a rapid breakthrough concentrated between the early 1950s and early 1960s. Adult mortality fell more than existing model life tables would predict and the pattern of relatively high early-age mortality typical of modern Africa emerged only at this time. While a range of developments in Ovamboland contributed to the overall decline in mortality, the most important factor was the establishment, by the Finnish Mission, of a Western system of health care. In Ovamboland, the drive to 'good health at low cost' was articulated not through political institutions but through the church.     

Income and “Outcomes” for Elderly: DO the Poor have A Poorer Life?

The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between income and living conditions and well-being of elderly. The best from two worlds is used for this purpose: a Danish survey covering 1440 elderly aged 72 and 77 from 1997, connected to reliable register information on income, 1988–1996. Indicators of physical activity, social and solitary activities, social contact, functional capability, loneliness and psychological well-being are constructed from the survey. Ordered logistic models are estimated controlling for demographics, education, previous occupation and whether the elderly are still working. It is found that elderly with low income levels have poorer functional capability, lower physical activity and poorer psychological well-being whereas social contact and social activities show no relationship with income. The relationship with income vanishes for solitary activities and loneliness when adding control variables. Having established that robust relations exist between income and some measures of well-being of elderly, we turn to an investigation of causality. Simultaneous models are estimated to assess whether the income relationship can be causally interpreted for functional capability and physical activity. The results show that it cannot be rejected that the income effects are causal, although care should be taken when interpreting results. We finally address our findings in the light of current and future changes regarding the size and economic well-being of the elderly population.     

Fertility trends,excess mortality,and the Great Irish Famine

This paper has developed estimates of the age-specific mortality rates prevailing during the Great Irish Famine and has analyzed fertility trends during the 25 years before the Famine. Our calculations confirm that 1 million Irish people perished as a result of this disaster. This figure does not include the deaths among the 1.3 million emigrants who left Ireland during the Famine period. The Famine produced a significant drop in the fertility rate, and we estimate that more than 300,000 births did not take place as a result of the Famine. The effects were especially severe on the very young and the very old, a result echoed in the findings of demographic analyses of other famines. Our procedure permits a reconstruction of the Irish population by age and sex during the period 1821-1841. In addition, it yields year-by-year estimates of the birth rate over this period. We estimate that the rate fell by about 14 percent, a result robust to our assumptions regarding emigration. Economic historians have debated this issue, and we hope that our evidence, although preliminary, will be of assistance. Our analysis also permits year-by-year reconstruction of Irish population totals for the period 1821-1851. Two years are of particular interest. Virtually all recent writers, with the notable exception of Lee (1981), have suggested that the 1831 census returns overestimated the actual population resident in Ireland at that date. Our reconstruction supports the validity of the 1831 census figure. We obtain a total of 7,847,000, which is in good agreement with the disputed census figure of 7,767,000. But perhaps the most interesting figure is the population total for the end of 1845, the highest ever achieved in Ireland. We estimate that the population on the eve of the Great Famine was 8,525,000. Throughout the paper we have tried to highlight those areas in which the data are unreliable, unavailable, or distorted. We have tried to devise cross-checks for consistency and to test the sensitivity of the results to a range of assumptions. A case in point concerns the age-sex profile and volume of emigration to England, Scotland, and Wales. Additional work at the micro level would be helpful here. More solid evidence on Famine births would also be helpful. The parish registers we have sampled certainly provide a clue to trends, but we have only made a start in that respect. A much more comprehensive survey is needed to convey the national picture.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

Mortality inequality in two native population groups

A sample of people aged 40–67 years, taken from a longitudinal register compiled by Statistics Finland, is used to analyse mortality differences between Swedish speakers and Finnish speakers in Finland. Finnish speakers are known to have higher death rates than Swedish speakers. The purpose is to explore whether labour-market experience and partnership status, treated as proxies for measures of variation in health-related characteristics, are related to the mortality differential. Persons who are single, disability pensioners, and those having experienced unemployment are found to have substantially higher death rates than those with a partner and employed persons. Swedish speakers have a more favourable distribution on both variables, which thus notably helps to reduce the Finnish–Swedish mortality gradient. A conclusion from this study is that future analyses on the topic should focus on mechanisms that bring a greater proportion of Finnish speakers into the groups with poor health or supposed unhealthy behaviour.     

Famine, disease, and mortality patterns in the parish of Borshevka, Russia, 1830-1912

Scholars have projected a dismal image of nineteenth-century, rural Russia as a society repeatedly punctuated by crop failures, famine, starvation, and epidemics of famine-related diseases. But there has been no rigorous attempt, using appropriate methods, to assess the nature of demographic crises in Russia and their contribution to overall mortality and population growth. The pattern of mortality evident in the parish under examination is distinguished by an extremely high incidence of infant, diarrhoeal diseases and childhood, infectious diseases. This unfavourable disease environment and resulting high rates of infant and early childhood mortality were more closely related to fertility levels, household size, housing conditions, and weaning practices than to annual or seasonal food availablity and the nutritional status of the population. In a disease-driven society, the susceptibility to infection and the force of infection can, to a considerable extent, be determined by demographic factors, familial norms, and climatic constraints.