复杂性科学及其在经济领域中的资助和研究进展北大核心CSCDCSSCI

统计和分析了国家自然科学基金委员会(以下简称基金委)管理科学部自1986年以来对复杂性科学及其在经济领域中相关研究的资助情况,同时,对复杂性科学及其与经济科学融合所产生的复杂经济学等研究进行了梳理,系统总结和分析了国内外相关研究的进展和发展趋势,以期为该领域的研究者提供参考和启示,促进复杂系统管理的研究,进而为管理科学部的十四五学科战略规划提供参考,为国家经济治理体系的完善等提供理论储备.     

复杂性科学及其在经济领域中的资助和研究进展

统计和分析了国家自然科学基金委员会(以下简称基金委) 管理科学部自 1986 年以来对复杂性科学及其在经济领域中相关研究的资助情况,同时,对复杂性科学及其与经济科学融合所产生的复杂经济学等研究进行了梳理,系统总结和分析了国内外相关研究的进展和发展趋势,以期为该领域的研究者提供参考和启示,促进复杂系统管理的研究,进而为管理科学部的十四五学科战略规划提供参考,为国家经济治理体系的完善等提供理论储备．     

复杂系统管理理论与方法研究北大核心CSCDCSSCI

随着新一代信息技术快速发展,系统的复杂程度不断提高,在对复杂系统管理提出挑战的同时,也因系统内部个体间的交互和系统层面的演化易于观测,为该领域带来了新的研究问题.发展和扩充复杂系统管理的分析理论和方法,有助于解决复杂系统运行中涌现的突出短板,使复杂系统适应新形势下社会发展需求.本文在分析国内外研究发展态势的基础上,结合国家自然科学基金委管理科学部“十四五”规划复杂管理系统优先领域专家研讨会意见,凝练出该领域未来值得深入探索的五个方向,并给出每个方向的典型科学问题.     

复杂系统管理理论与方法研究

随着新一代信息技术快速发展,系统的复杂程度不断提高,在对复杂系统管理提出挑战的同时,也因系统内部个体间的交互和系统层面的演化易于观测,为该领域带来了新的研究问题.发展和扩充复杂系统管理的分析理论和方法,有助于解决复杂系统运行中涌现的突出短板,使复杂系统适应新形势下社会发展需求.本文在分析国内外研究发展态势的基础上,结合国家自然科学基金委管理科学部"十四五"规划复杂管理系统优先领域专家研讨会意见,凝练出该领域未来值得深入探索的五个方向,并给出每个方向的典型科学问题.     

中国商用客机后发技术追赶模式研究：复杂系统管理视角

商用客机被公认为高端装备制造业的“皇冠”,集中体现了一个国家科技、工业与经济发展的综合实力。后发国家企业如何实现此类复杂产品的技术追赶,是管理学术界迫切需要研究的复杂问题。本文基于复杂系统管理视角,以商用客机技术追赶过程为研究对象,探究复杂产品技术追赶模式。结论如下:(1)运用复杂系统思维,辨析了商用客机技术追赶的复杂特殊性问题与特征;(2)运用复杂系统的整体论与还原论,构建了以解决关键问题为导向的技术追赶模式。本研究首次将复杂系统思维引入高端装备技术追赶的研究领域,提炼了复杂产品技术追赶的特征与模式,既拓展了复杂系统管理理论的应用边界,也丰富了技术追赶理论,并对指导中国复杂产品企业的技术创新具有重大启示。     

现代管理会计理论浅析

管理会计自20世纪初问世以来,就随着经济的发展在西方国家企业中得到了推广应用和发展.近十几年,西方管理会计学科又提出了许多新的管理会计理论和方法,从而使管理会计的研究领域和应用范围进一步扩大.我国学者于20世纪80年代初,在引进西方管理会计理论的基础上,开始对管理会计理论进行研究并取得了一定的成果,但与西方国家相比理论研究成果不多,其方法在国内企业中的应用较少,理论与实际差距较大,不尽人意.     

复杂适应系统理论下数字化领导力的内涵、构成及涌现机制

为丰富数智时代的领导力研究,为企业数字化转型等组织管理研究打开新的路径,结合复杂适应系统理论,对数字化领导力的内涵、结构维度和涌现机制进行了探析。研究结果发现：数字化领导力包括数字化愿景、数字化技能以及数字化实施的影响过程,其主要影响因素包括国家政策、技术变革以及关键领导者的特质;同时,还通过运用复杂适应系统理论的“刺激-反应”模型,揭示和构建了数字化领导力的涌现机制,即包含接受刺激、演化学习、涌现、适应性反应4个环节。     

Multiagent仿真与资源稀缺下的适应行为

以信息经济学和多ａｇｅｎｔ系统理论为分析框架,借助美国Ｓａｎｔａ Ｆｅ Ｉｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅ 开发的仿真工具Ｓｗ ａｒｍ ,研究了短缺经济下个体的选择、竞争与适应行为,以及制度的进化过程．研究表明,简单的个体适应行为可以产生复杂的整体效果;个体基于历史以及相互间的信息交流导致了学习;满足一定的条件,新的制度安排将突现;个体之间信息的不对称可能使系统进化出类似道德风险和逆向选择的复杂行为．本研究有助于理解现实社会中普遍存在的占座现象;有助于解释财产权利以及制度的变迁．研究中所采用的多ａｇｅｎｔ系统仿真方法为研究复杂的社会经济系统提供了一种相对新颖的观察视角     

矿山企业耗散结构形成及突变分析研究

矿山企业发展是一个多因素、多层次、动态变化、开放发展的复杂非线性系统,在企业的发展变化中出现了许多一般系统科学难以解释的现象,本文利用复杂科学理论耗散结构和突变理论研究矿山企业持续发展中的复杂现象,为矿山企业的发展提供科学的理论依据.     

人力资源管理实务中新方法的比较研究

随着经济全球化的发展、知识经济的来临,人力资源成为竞争的关键,人力资源管理理论和实务都取得了巨大的发展和进步,产生了许多新的人力资源管理实务新方法。本文对比分析了与绩效考核和管理有关的三种人力资源管理实务新方法,指出了它们各自的优劣和适应范围。     

Criteria for selecting a production control philosophy

Logistic objectives constitute a compromise between having short leadtimes and a low volume of work in progress on the one hand and a high resource loading and due date obligation on the other. Miscellaneous production planning approaches offered today provide different combinations of logistic objectives for satisfying a manufacturing strategy. To combine the strength of the various approaches into a unified system, a new approach based on a dynamic and distributed production planning methodology is proposed. To customize the approach, various analyses and specifications have to be made and for that reason some important characteristics and criteria for analysing production control philosophies will be given.     

The social construction of the meaning of acute stressors: a qualitative study of the personal accounts of police officers using a stress counselling service

The police profession is one in which acute stressors are encountered more frequently than in other occupations. Using the personal accounts of 35 police officers attending an in-house stress counselling clinic, the aim of the present study was to provide a qualitative examination of how the institutional context of policing influenced the ways in which acute stressors signified to individual police officers experiencing felt distress. Using the framework of Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy as an analytical tool, it is argued that beliefs contributing to the experience of felt distress are related to the way in which policing as both an identity and an activity is constructed through the police organizational culture. Not only do these constructions influence the ways in which officers perceive themselves and their environments, but they also operate at the collective level to 'normalize' some emotional responses and to 'pathologize' others which, it is argued, could impact upon the outcomes of interventions such as stress counselling.     

The moderating role of social support in Karasek's job strain model

This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context.     

Job insecurity, coping resources and personality dispositions in occupational strain

This paper presents research on the relationships between the work-related stressor of perceived job insecurity and various indicators of occupational strain, taking into account employees' personality dispositions (trait negative and positive affectivity) and coping resources. Respondents were 222 Australian public servants surveyed during organizational restructuring that involved downsizing and threat to job certainty. The research was formulated within an adaptation of Osipow, Doty, and Spokane's (1985) framework of stress-strain-coping that included the possible direct as well as moderating effects of personality dispositions in reporting occupational strain (Parkes, 1990). Findings from hierarchical regression analyses indicate consistent significant independent effects of personality dispositions, coping resources and perceived job insecurity on various indicators of strain. There was also support for the moderating roles of negative affectivity and self-care in the relation between perceived job insecurity and physical strain. Implications for the role of dispositional factors, especially negative affectivity, and the utility of various coping resources in accounting for occupational strain in times of threatened job security are discussed.     

Introduction to Special Section on Sensitivity Analysis and Summary of NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis

This guest editorial is a summary of the NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis held June 11–12, 2001 at North Carolina State University and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Office of Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis. The objective of the workshop was to learn across disciplines in identifying, evaluating, and recommending sensitivity analysis methods and practices for application to food‐safety process risk models. The workshop included presentations regarding the Hazard Assessment and Critical Control Points (HACCP) framework used in food‐safety risk assessment, a survey of sensitivity analysis methods, invited white papers on sensitivity analysis, and invited case studies regarding risk assessment of microbial pathogens in food. Based on the sharing of interdisciplinary information represented by the presentations, the workshop participants, divided into breakout sessions, responded to three trigger questions: What are the key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods applied to food‐safety risk assessment? What sensitivity analysis methods are most promising for application to food safety and risk assessment? and What are the key needs for implementation and demonstration of such methods? The workshop produced agreement regarding key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods and the need to use two or more methods to try to obtain robust insights. Recommendations were made regarding a guideline document to assist practitioners in selecting, applying, interpreting, and reporting the results of sensitivity analysis.     

Job stress, job strain, and psychological withdrawal among Dutch university staff: towards a dualprocess model for the effects of occupational stress

This study examined the antecedents of job strain (emotional exhaustion, health complaints) and withdrawal behaviour (e.g. lowered organizational commitment) among a cross-sectional sample of 131 academic staff members of the law department of a large Dutch university. Conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1989) provided the theoretical background for this study. Strains and withdrawal behaviours were expected to be most prominent among those who reported having few resources and/or who reported high job demands. Structural equation modelling revealed that this was indeed the case. As predicted, differential patterns of effects emerged for job demands and job resources. Analysis of the effects of four job-specific stressors revealed that especially the structural aspects of a staff member's teaching task (e.g. the number of students in their classes) contributed strongly to perceived job demands. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed.     

Distinguishing traumatic, vicarious and routine operational stressor exposure and attendant adverse consequences in a sample of police officers

Problems in studying occupational stress within the police service are identified and the paucity of work on operational duties as potential stressors are discussed. The present study reports the results of a factor analysis of operational stressors (N = 601 serving British police officers) that revealed three factors: exposure to death and disaster; violence and injury; sexual crime. These were demonstrated to be reliable scales and were included in logistic regression models together with a range of demographic and psychological variables. Models were applied to men and women separately, which showed there to be different predictors of the likelihood of suffering distress (measured by the General Health Questionnaire, GHQ) in terms of the officer's gender and operational role. Overall the model for women officers was better at predicting psychological distress than that for men. These findings are related to aspects of the police occupational culture. Further discussion is offered that conceptualizes police operational stressors as traumatic, routine and vicarious. Finally, some implications are drawn for the provision of stress intervention in the light of this differentiation.     

Dermal Uptake of 18 Dilute Aqueous Chemicals: In Vivo Disappearance‐Method Measures Greatly Exceed In Vitro‐Based Predictions

Average rates of total dermal uptake (K_up) from short‐term (e.g., bathing) contact with dilute aqueous organic chemicals (DAOCs) are typically estimated from steady‐state in vitro diffusion‐cell measures of chemical permeability (K_p) through skin into receptor solution. Widely used (“PCR‐vitro”) methods estimate K_up by applying diffusion theory to increase K_p predictions made by a physico‐chemical regression (PCR) model that was fit to a large set of K_p measures. Here, K_up predictions for 18 DAOCs made by three PCR‐vitro models (EPA, NIOSH, and MH) were compared to previous in vivo measures obtained by methods unlikely to underestimate K_up. A new PCR model fit to all 18 measures is accurate to within approximately threefold (r = 0.91, p < 10^?5), but the PCR‐vitro predictions (r > 0.63) all tend to underestimate the K_up measures by mean factors (UF, and p value for testing UF = 1) of 10 (EPA, p < 10^?6), 11 (NIOSH, p < 10^?8), and 6.2 (MH, p = 0.018). For all three PCR‐vitro models, log(UF) correlates negatively with molecular weight (r² = 0.31 to 0.84, p = 0.017 to < 10^?6) but not with log(vapor pressure) as an additional predictor (p > 0.05), so vapor pressure appears not to explain the significant in vivo/PCR‐vitro discrepancy. Until this discrepancy is explained, careful in vivo measures of K_up should be obtained for more chemicals, the expanded in vivo database should be compared to in vitro‐based predictions, and in vivo data should be considered in assessing aqueous dermal exposure and its uncertainty.     

Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition,Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision‐making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision‐making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit‐cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management.     

UNIX系统性能监控简述及shell系统资源统计程序

本文简要阐述了unix系统中(主要以IBM的AIX为例)进行系统性能管理的几种命令行工具,并通过编写shell实例程序,运用其中提到的工具实现系统资源利用率的统计程序,为做好unix系统管理和调优提供参考.