中日两国生育意愿、生育水平及影响因素比较

利用中国和日本的现有资料,分析两国已婚妇女的生育意愿、生育水平、意愿与行为的差距及部分影响因素。结果显示,约十年前,两国已婚妇女的理想子女数都高于现实的总和生育率,且日本妇女期望子女数远大于其现实的生育水平。年龄、教育程度、收入水平、职业类别、闲暇时间、本人兄弟姐妹数量对两国已婚妇女的理想子女数有影响。个体生育意愿是动态的,与个体所处生命历程阶段相关。在低于更替水平的生育率下,了解真实的生育意愿和行为,掌握两者差距的特点,才能够准确预测生育水平,制定有效的人口发展政策。     

乡镇人口生育意愿现状——以菏泽市乡镇人口为例

根据菏泽市乡镇人口生育意愿调查问卷数据,分析了该市乡镇人口的生育意愿现状.调查结果表明:菏泽市乡镇人口意愿生育子女数为1.54,低于更替水平;性别偏好不明显;意愿结婚和生育时间推迟;生育目的也发生了转变.据此提出:国家应在生育政策与生育权益、家庭保障间平衡统筹,进行适当调整.     

我国城镇居民生育意愿及其影响因素研究——基于近10 年文献的调查分析

近年来国家逐渐放宽生育政策以应对中国人口生育率下降等问题,但政策的实施未能达到预期的效果。生育意愿作为生育行为的影响因素而备受重视。通过对国内自2010年以来有关生育意愿的文献回顾发现,我国居民的生育意愿子女数近年来呈降低后趋于平稳的态势,意愿生育时间逐渐推迟,动机日渐多元化,部分子女性别偏好表现为儿女双全和无所谓的双峰态势。生育意愿受多重因素影响,经济因素尤其重要。基于综述以期在新的政策背景下展望未来,深入了解人们的生育意愿。     

中国现在还需要限制生育吗?

一个国家最佳的生育率是保持在世代更替水平附近,这样有利于保持合理的人口结构,也符合十八届三中全会提出的"促进人口长期均衡发展"的目标。当今中国无论是生育率还是生育意愿都远低于更替水平。因此,中国应该适当鼓励生育以便把生育率提高到更替水平附近。世界上许多国家和地区的经验表明,当一个国家或地区的生育率过高时,政府要采取措施降低生育率,这是比较容易做到的。然而,当一个国家或地区的生育率过低时,政府要采取措施鼓励生育,却几乎没有什么效果。     

关于我国生育政策与生育水平的几点思考

通过回顾梳理现存文献和进行国际比较认为,中国的总和生育率已经大大低于更替水平,且现行生育政策仅能有效控制大约6%的育龄妇女。在低生育水平已持续了近20年、理想子女数大约仅为2个孩子、现行生育政策对个体生育行为的控制作用大大减弱的情势下,未来维持低生育水平主要取决于经济社会的发展。只要能够有效控制各类人群的第三胎生育,推行现行生育政策与＂放宽二孩、杜绝三孩＂的生育政策之间差别就不会大;而如果超生是某些人的特权,就既会大大降低生育政策的公信力,也不利于稳定适度的低生育水平。     

2000年以来我国人口生育意愿研究综述——基于数量、性别和时间三个维度

从数量、性别和时间三个维度,在空间上分为全国性调查研究和地方性调查研究两大模块,在时间上按照由远及近的顺序,对2000年以来我国人口生育意愿的相关研究进行梳理后发现:在意愿生育数量上,中国人群的意愿生育数量在1.6—1.9个的范围上下波动,大城市、东部地区和中部地区理想子女数的均值依次递增;在意愿生育性别上,性别数量双偏好(儿女双全)和无性别偏好逐渐成为主流,但各地区之间存在差异;在意愿生育时间上,女性人口的理想生育年龄较为稳定,实际生育年龄则呈增长趋势.为满足具有长远意义的对比分析需要,可构建系统性、标准化的生育意愿测量工具,并进行纵向追踪性的大型调查.     

江苏居民生育意愿和生育政策敏感性研究

为探究不同群体的生育意愿和对生育政策的敏感性,本文以江苏省18～50岁居民为调查对象,通过问卷调查收集了被调查者基本信息、生育基本情况、个人生育意愿、对生育政策的态度等内容,并采用多元有序逻辑回归和基于主成分的聚类分析展开研究。逻辑回归主要结果显示,年龄越大、已有子女个数越多的群体对“双减”、托管服务等政策的支持度越高;工作时长越长的人更希望推行托管服务、延长男性产假;工作时间越长、已有子女数和理想子女数较多的群体更希望减少过度加班。聚类结果表明,若要提升生育率,可以对低学历、中低收入群体推行定向经济补助、公租房等政策,对工作时间较长的群体实行减少过度加班、提供儿童托管服务的举措,营造长辈抚养的社会环境。研究结论对制定和落实生育促进政策、促进人口长期健康发展具有参考意义。     

低生育率背景下对人口转变的再认识——基于一个统一的分析框架

无论是传统人口转变理论，还是“第二次人口转变理论”及相关理论，虽能大致描述和解释过往历史特定时期或某些阶段的人口现象，但在理论解释力与发展进程之间的包容性上存在明显局限。生育率转变是人口转变的核心，并且它的转变是一个连续的过程。影响生育率的因素是多元而复杂的，这些因素在不同的自然状况和社会发展方式下尤其是在生产方式和生活方式及相关社会制度变迁下不断发生更替和转换，共同推动着生育率转变。纵观世界人口经济发展历史，生育率转变经历了五个阶段：低自然生育力、无有效生育控制力和较高生育率阶段，自然生育力上升、低有效生育控制力和高生育率阶段，较高自然生育力、低有效生育控制力和较高生育率阶段，高自然生育力、高有效生育控制力和较低生育率阶段，自然生育力下降、极高有效生育控制力和低或极低生育率阶段。实际生育率是自然生育力和意愿生育率在有效生育控制力的调节作用下选择与平衡的结果，同时还受到人口容量约束下的节育行为影响。中国目前已经处于极低生育率阶段，实现适度生育水平促进人口长期均衡发展，关键在于保护民族生育力，提高个体生育意愿，实现经济高质量发展。     

鼓励生育将是逆水行舟

中国的低生育率现状对未来经济和社会发展将产生负面的影响。在与其他国家和地区比较的基础上,认为中国的生育意愿处于极低的水平并简要分析了背后的原因。提出中国未来生育率的三重下行压力和导致生育率难以回升的三个恶性循环链条。最后比较了东亚各国和地区以及伊朗的人口形势变化、人口政策的改变轨迹和目前的鼓励措施。在此基础上,认为中国未来提升生育率,维持人口可持续发展的任务将极其艰巨。     

新生代农民工“二孩”生育意愿与生育行为研究——基于河南省南阳市H镇的调研分析

生育意愿是影响实际生育水平的超前变量,是预测生育行为和生育水平的一个重要参数。新生代农民工"二孩"生育意愿普遍较强,为全面"二孩"政策的实施提供了广阔空间。他们的男孩偏好表现比较明显。子女的养育费用、照看孩子的精力和计生政策是影响新生代农民工生育意愿和生育行为的关键因素。应切实维护并保障女性农民工的"二孩"生育权益,加强出生人口监测和风险控制以防止"二孩"出生性别不均衡,以促进全面"二孩"政策的有效实施。     

Did the Economic Crisis Cause the Fertility Decline in Russia: Evidence from the 1994 Microcensus

Between 1989 and 1993, the total fertility rate inRussia dropped from 2.01 to 1.38, a fall ofunprecedented size in peacetime. The more commonexplanation asserts that the fertility decrease is thepopulation's response to the socio-economic crisisoccurring in the country. The alternative hypothesisstates that the fertility decrease is just acontinuation of the long-term trend, while the crisishas accelerated this process. On the basis ofindividual data obtained in the 1994 microcensus,which involved 5 per cent of Russia's population, thispaper attempts to find arguments for and against eachof the two hypotheses The analysis is based onquestionnaires of 798 thousand women born between 1959and 1975. Three indicators of fertility areinvestigated: frequency of birth in 1993, expectednumber of children, and desired number of children.These indicators are linked to 28 backgroundcharacteristics, including marital status, number ofchildren ever born, ethnicity, level of education,housing condition, and income level. The data do notreveal essential fertility differentiation by economicstatus, which would be present of the first hypothesiswere right. At the same time, a clear connection isfound between the frequency of births in 1993 and suchsocio-cultural markers as living in town orcountryside, ethnicity, and the desired number ofchildren. In addition, 1993 fertility actuallyconforms to women's opinions about the number ofchildren they intend to have. These results cast doubton the hypothesis that the economic crisis is the mainand only cause of the recent fertility decrease inRussia.     

Sub-Replacement Fertility Intentions in Austria

Combining the data of the 1986–2001 Microcensus surveys, I reconstruct trends in fertility intentions across time and over the life course of Austrian women born since the 1950s. Young adults in Austria expressed fertility intentions that were below the replacement-level threshold as early as in 1986 and women born since the mid-1950s consistently desired fewer than two children on average throughout their reproductive lives. A two-child family norm, however, still clearly dominates the fertility intentions of different age, cohort and education groups. Uncertainty about childbearing intentions is rather common, especially among younger and childless respondents. Different assumptions about reproductive preferences of undecided respondents affect estimates of the mean intended family size. Although Austrians were among the first in Europe to express low fertility intentions, their position is no longer unique. By the early 2000s, young women in a number of other European countries also expressed sub-replacement fertility intentions.     

影响生育的国外家庭政策分析

利用联合国公开发表的资料以及英国、加拿大和日本相关部门的官网信息．就低生育水平对不同国家家庭政策的影响以及有关国家对生育水平具有隐性或显性作用的家庭政策进行了分析。研究结果表明,低生育水平是有关国家态度转变的依据,态度的转变也带来了政策上的相应变化。三个国家的家庭政策具有明显的增强家庭养育子女经济实力、提升家庭照料子女能力以及促进家庭自身良性发展的作用。     

Desire for Marriage and Children: A Comparison of Feminist and Non-feminist Women

Research indicates that liberal gender ideologies and feminist beliefs are related to a lower desire for marriage and children, but the importance of feminist self-identification has not been assessed. In Study 1, self-identified feminist and non-feminist women were asked to rate their own and the typical woman’s desire for marriage and children. Non-feminists desired marriage and children more than did feminists. Both groups believed that the typical woman desired these more than they did. In Study 2, feminist and non-feminist women provided information about feminist beliefs as well as their own and the typical feminist’s desire for marriage and children. Consistent with the results from Study 1, non-feminists desired marriage and children more than did feminists. Feminist identity was also found to predict decreased desire for marriage above and beyond feminist beliefs. Our results indicated that stereotypes of feminists, in this context, are somewhat accurate.     

二律背反:新生代农民工生育意愿的变化趋势及其政策启示

新生代农民工作为农民工的主体,绝大部分人处于婚恋和生育的黄金阶段,其生育意愿对中国城镇化发展和人口可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。通过纵向和横向对比分析,发现新生代农民工生育意愿具有明显的现代性特征。相对于老生代农民工而言,新生代农民工生育意愿显著降低,并趋近新生代城—城流动人口;其生育意愿的性别、婚姻状况、受教育程度差异等内部分化显著弱化。而且,基于城市适应理论视角,从经济适应、社会适应、心理适应、制度适应4个维度对其影响因素进行实证分析,发现城市适应对新生代农民工生育意愿的影响呈现代际显著增强的态势。经济适应、社会适应、心理适应程度的提高会显著地降低新生代农民工期望生育子女数。这使得中国城镇化发展与新生代农民工生育意愿降低的现象并存,存在城镇化发展与人口可持续发展之间二律背反的矛盾困境。而制度适应却能显著提升新生代农民工生育意愿,这为促进城镇化发展和人口可持续发展相协调提供了可能和路径。     

The Positive Effect of Women’s Education on Fertility in Low-Fertility China

Despite pervasive evidence of more educated women having lower fertility, it remains unclear whether education reduces women’s fertility. This study presents new evidence of the causal effect of women’s education on fertility from China, where fertility has remained below the replacement level since the early 1990s. To account for endogeneity, the study exploits the timing and varying intensity of China’s higher education expansion as exogenous sources of increase in women’s education. Using data from China General Social Survey (2010–2012), findings show that each year of women’s education induced by the higher education expansion increases the number of children ever born by 10%. According to the average marginal effects, each additional year of women’s education increases the number of children ever born by 0.14, decreases the probability of having no children by 3 percentage points, and increases the probability of having two or more children by 4 percentage points. Two mechanisms drive the positive effect of education: first, education does not cause an increase in the mean age at first marriage; second, among ever-married women, education increases their demand for children. Findings from this study have important implications for China and other low-fertility developing countries.     

大城市“80后”群体生育意愿现状及差异分析——以上海静安区为例

利用上海市静安区"80后"青年生育意愿调查资料,描述了大城市"80后"群体的生育意愿现状,并运用logistic回归模型,从生育的目的、时间、数量、性别偏好四个维度分析了该群体人口社会经济特征对生育意愿的影响程度。研究发现,大城市"80后"青年群体之间在生育目的和生育时间方面并没有表现出统计学显著性差异,而在生育数量和生育性别偏好方面则存在显著性差异,受教育程度和收入水平是导致其生育意愿差异的主要影响因素。     

The Impact of Labour-Force Participation on Childbearing Behaviour: Pro-Cyclical Fertility in Sweden during the 1980s and the 1990s

During the last two decades, Sweden has experienced strong fluctuations both in its economy and in its level of childbearing. A period of high employment and increasing fertility has been followed by a period of lower employment and decreasing fertility since the beginning of the 1990s. In this paper, we use register data for Swedish women in order to examine how various types of attachment to the labour market affect women's propensity to give birth at different parities. Specifically, we show what impact changes in women's employment status have had on recorded fertility trends in Sweden. We find that women who have relatively low levels of income and women who are enrolled as students generally have lower fertility than other women. We also find that a rise in the number of women with such characteristics can explain part of the decrease in fertility during the 1990s. It is evident, however, that other factors, working at the macro level, also have to be considered when one wants to explain the fluctuating fertility of Sweden. Social policy is one such factor. In sum, we find a pattern of pro-cyclical fertility, where levels of female earnings are positively related to levels of childbearing.