民意调查技术的新发展

民意调查的新技术主要包括电脑辅助电话调查、网络调查等。其中电脑辅助电话调查包括电脑辅助面访和电脑辅助自调查等,网络调查可通过E-mail问卷调查和网络调研系统等进行。     

技术治理的悖论:一项民意调查的政治过程及其结果

技术治理的逻辑是通过识别和处理源源不断的问题进而把社会呈现在国家面前。它能够完成其使命吗？本文以S市C街道2014年至2016年的连续民意调查为经验对象,系统阐述民意调查为何表面上是一个统计学过程,实质却是由权力运行支配的政治过程。分析表明,在将复杂民意化简成民调数据时,技术只能保证化简程序的严谨性,化简方向则由操作者决定。民调项目的规定性源自基层权力结构,又被转移到对复杂民意的筛选、压缩和量化过程之中,生成指标体系。据此,本文揭示了技术治理的悖论--国家通过技术之眼观察社会时,看到的可能是自己的影子。     

论数字时代的刑事抽样取证

近年来,抽样取证方法逐渐从行政程序和行政诉讼领域扩展至刑事诉讼领域,尤其是数字时代海量电子数据的出现,导致刑事诉讼中大量使用抽样取证方法来认定案件事实。刑事抽样取证证据运用在性质上具有二重属性：首先,在法定的入罪门槛和法定的加重处罚门槛上,因为底线证明的要求,它不能作为一种新的证明方法而存在,除非刑事法律有特别规定,而这种特别规定的性质应该是一种可反驳的推定;其次,在跨过了法定的入罪门槛和法定的加重处罚门槛后,抽样取证证据运用作为一种新的证明方法而存在,刑事法律不应该作出特别限制。为了更好地适应数字时代的多元事实认定需求,应制定单独的司法解释,构建体系化的刑事抽样取证规则,对抽样取证的适用条件、适用范围、抽样方法、具体程序和程序衔接等进行详细规定,以规范地指导司法实践。     

协商式民意调查:协商民主的一种制度设计

协商式民意调查是调和政治平等与协商、落实协商民主理念的最基本的一种制度设计.依照严格的程序,协商式民意调查不但有助于民意的探究和改善公共决策的品质,而且通过公开协商的环节,普通公民也会逐渐提升参与公共事务的愿望、养成参与的美德、提高参与的能力和厘清对政策的认识.作为一种有效的公民参与形式,协商式民意调查对中国扩大公共参与、拓宽民意渠道和完善民主决策有着积极的借鉴意义.     

受访者推动抽样：研究隐藏人口的方法与实践

“隐藏人口”的特点是规模较小且成员一般不愿暴露身份，因此很难使用常规抽样方法对其进行研究。近年来出现了一种新的研究隐藏人口的方法——受访者推动抽样（RDS)方法，该方法在传统“雪球抽样”方法的基础上，结合社会网络分析的理论和方法，使研究者有可能根据样本对总体特征做出合理的推论。本文对RDS方法的理论渊源、基本思路、主要操作步骤和原理进行了简要介绍，并探讨了在实际操作过程中应注意的问题。     

抽样审核在医保门诊医疗费结算中的应用

目前,天津市城镇职工基本医疗保险参保人数已达到400多万人,城乡居民医疗保险参保人数近500万人。随着参保人数的增长,门诊大额医疗费结算人数急剧增加。虽然实现了门诊大额费用(以下简称门大)联网结算,简化了参保人员医疗费报销手续,规范了申报审核和结算手续,但由于医保审核人员     

临近空间的性质争议及法律定位

临近空间具有重要的应用价值,但对其性质和法律地位尚缺乏权威的统一的认识。关于临近空间的法律性质存在着不同观点,争议焦点主要集中在两个方面:一是临近空间是否应作为一个独立的法律概念存在;二是临近空间与空气空间、外层空间的关系。尽管临近空间目前尚未在实在法上取得独立的法律地位,但是其应当成为一个独立的法律概念。临近空间不宜发展成为与空气空间、外层空间相并列的第三类独立空间,而应是在当前空间二元划分之下的一个细分层次,从属于空气空间。可以通过设立临近空间的无害通过制度来调整临近空间中飞行需要与国家安全之间的冲突,其它方面则应适用空气空间法的规定。     

空间性交易成本:产业组织空间形态的演变

传统交易成本理论缺失空间维度,而威廉姆森交易成本的三个基本维度:交易主体属性、客体特征以及交易形式(频率),为空间性交易成本的产生机制提供了一个有效的分析框架.降低空间性交易成本的企业个体行为推动产业组织空间形态的演变,企业大规模生产和空间扩张时,多区位生产增加市场交易不确定性、资产专用性和市场交易频率,导致交易成本增加,促使纵向一体化组织出现,随着福特制积累方式向柔性生产转变,空间性交易成本的产生途径也有所改变,促使产业组织纵向分化与集聚,纵向一体化组织形态和产业集聚空间形态不是完全替代的关系,随着外部经济发展环境的变化,二者在一国特定的产业组织形态中所处的地位和所起的作用有所差别,这对中国产业组织发展有重要启示,现阶段,我国提高产业整体竞争力,既需要通过纵向一体化,发展大企业和企业集团,也需要通过降低空间交易成本,促进地方产业空间集聚.     

兰州市在中国现代物流发展中的定位

兰州市现代物流的发展处于起步阶段,正确认识兰州市在我国现代物流发展中的地位,有利于合理规划兰州市现代物流业的发展。本文从全国、西北地区、甘肃省和兰州经济圈四个方面对兰州市在现代物流中的地位进行了分析和定位,旨在为兰州市物流业的发展提供依据。     

浅论“公共空间”中的“文学空间”

社会生活中的"公共空间"是多元存在的,其中也存在着一个文学空间.媒体所营造的公共空间中的文学空间是由作者、编辑出版者、读者共同参与构成的一个开放的"公共性"空间.在这个空间中可以进行自由的讨论争鸣,媒体改变了作者的创造状态.在新文学的传播中,这一空间改变了读者的审美趣味,消费习惯,这又反过来影响着报刊风格,及审美趋向.本文试图理清"公共空间"理论与文学研究的契合之处,对文学公共空间的一些理论问题作一初步探讨.     

解决居民实际问题:居委会舆情疏导的重要方式

民众社会生活状况是舆情产生的基础,民众社会生活中的问题是影响舆情的中介性社会事项,民众对社会生活的感受是舆情的重要组成部分,解决居民实际问题是通过改变人们的生活状况、改变中介性社会事项和改变人们的生活感受疏导舆情,是居委会舆情疏导的基本着力点。     

宣传和动员在社区舆情疏导实践中的作用

社区居委会以及其它社会组织是实施宣传和动员的组织资源,通常是围绕着社区建设的各项内容进行的。社区居委会舆情疏导工作则是通过宣传和动员,在潜移默化中实现舆情疏导的,从而形成基层社会和谐稳定发展的综合效应。     

Poverty,Government Policy and Public Opinion in Britain and Israel: A Comparative Analysis

What are the effects of public opinion on social welfare policies? To what extent is increased financial strain associated with stronger support for anti‐poverty policies? This article tests welfare state theory by comparing poverty, government policy and public opinion on poverty in the UK and Israel, based on rich and detailed comparable survey data on the conditions of the poor in both countries. The results show that, despite similar levels of income poverty and inequality, the poor have a considerably lower standard of living in Israel than the UK. There is considerably greater public support for the poor in Israel but limited government action to end poverty, whereas in the UK there is more limited public support for the poor but significant government action on poverty and exclusion. In both countries there appears to be only a limited connection between social solidarity with the poor and the political elite's rhetoric and action.     

Transferring HIV/AIDS Related Healthcare from Non‐governmental Organizations to the Public Healthcare System in South Africa: Opportunities and Challenges

Almost two decades after the transition to a post‐apartheid regime, South Africa is still high‐ranking in the incidence of chronic diseases like tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, diabetes and hypertension. This article explores the transition from HIV/AIDS related healthcare offered by internationally supported non‐governmental organizations (NGOs) in rural areas to the inclusion of this healthcare into the public healthcare system. This transition is part of a wider process that represents the exact reverse of healthcare reforms in Western industrialized countries. Instead of a transition from public healthcare to privatized or marketized healthcare, the transition in South Africa is from partly private healthcare to a public healthcare system in which the private commercial health sector as well as all services provided by NGOs will be integrated. In that process, many obstacles obscure intended outcomes, such as equal access to healthcare. Some obstacles are evident in the case studies of two internationally supported NGOs in the field of HIV/AIDS healthcare. We will conclude that governance structures of public and private NGO‐based healthcare are often difficult to integrate; implementation timelines and priorities do not always coincide; and the public healthcare system is still too weak to deliver good quality healthcare in rural areas without continued NGO support.     

Public/Private Pension Mix,Income Inequality and Poverty among the Elderly in Europe: An Empirical Analysis Using New and Revised OECD Data

Prior studies have suggested that higher public pensions are associated with lower income inequality among the elderly, whereas the reverse is true for private pensions. Van Vliet et al. ( 2012 ) empirically test whether relative shifts from public to private pension schemes entail higher levels of income inequality among the elderly using panel data from the OECD SOCX and the EU‐SILC databases. Contrasting earlier empirical studies using either cross‐sectional or time‐series data, they do not find evidence that shifts from public to private pension provision are associated with higher levels of income inequality or poverty among the elderly. The aim of the current article is to extend the analysis of Van Vliet et al. by: (1) adding additional countries; (2) adding additionally available years; and (3) using revised OECD SOCX data. In contrast to Van Vliet et al., we find that a greater relative importance of private pensions is associated with higher levels of income inequality and poverty among the elderly. A central explanation of the difference in conclusions stems from the revision of OECD SOCX data.     

Organizational Form as a Mechanism to Involve Staff,Public and Users in Public Services: A Study of the Governance of NHS Foundation Trusts

In addition to introducing markets and market‐like structures into public services, New Labour wished to promote the involvement of users and the public in decision‐making in other ways than as individual consumers. One way was to involve the public in the governance of organizations. This could be done by removing public services from state control, and transferring them to mutual ownership; or by increasing public involvement in the governance of public bodies. NHS foundation trusts (FTs) were presented as mutuals. Our study shows FTs are not mutuals, as they continue to be owned by the state. Moreover, staff of FTs were generally not engaging with the new governance structures. In general, there was mixed experience of the new structures enabling governors to increase accountability of the hospitals to the public. On the other hand, having a membership did enhance the legitimacy of FTs, as opposed to other NHS organizations. The findings of the study are of current interest as the coalition government is continuing with the policy of FTs, and also encouraging mutuals and other forms of public involvement.     

公众对转基因作物的接受度及其影响因素:基于六城市调查数据的社会学分析

本文利用一项大规模的入户抽样调查数据,分析了中国公众对转基因作物的接受度问题。与以往基于“消费者行为研究”框架而采取“个体决策行为模型”的研究不同,本文从风险社会学的理论视角出发,试图发展一个“社会行动模型”的理论框架,以解释个体在“风险社会”中面对一项新技术时的决策行动受到哪些社会性因素的影响。结果显示,中国公众对推广种植转基因大米的接受度不高,与2002年相比有明显下降;传统的“个体决策行为模型”有一定的解释力,但其决策行为是基于有限知识基础上的“有限理性选择”,大众媒体的影响、对“专家系统”的制度性信任都是重要的影响因素。     

Middle‐Class Political Activism and Middle‐Class Advantage in Relation to Public Services: A Realist Synthesis of the Evidence Base

Since the late 1960s social policy scholarship has been concerned with the distribution of the resources or benefits across social gradients. This article presents a review of the literature on one mechanism by which inequity might be produced – activism by middle‐class service‐users enabling them to capture a disproportionate share of resources. The review used the methodology of realist synthesis to bring together evidence from the UK, the USA and Scandinavian countries over the past 30 years. The aim was to construct a ‘middle‐theory’ to understand how and in which contexts collective and individual activity by middle‐class service‐users might produce inequitable resource allocation or rationing decisions that disproportionately benefit middle‐class service‐users. The article identifies four causal theories which nuance the view that it is the ‘sharp elbows’ of the middle‐classes which confer advantage on this group. It shows how advantage accrues via the interplay between service‐users, providers and the broader policy and social context.     

New Models of Contracting in the Public Sector: A Review of Alliance Contracting,Prime Contracting and Outcome‐based Contracting Literature

The coordination of public services is an enduring challenge and an important policy priority. One way to achieve collaboration across organizational boundaries, which is being considered in public services such as the English National Health Service (NHS), is through the adoption of alliance contracting, prime provider contracting and outcome‐based contracting. This article reviews the cross‐sectoral literature concerning the characteristics of these new contractual models, how they function, their impact, and their relation to public sector governance objectives. These new contractual forms are characterized as models which, in line with the New Public Management (NPM)/post‐NPM agenda, seek to incentivize providers through the transfer of risk from the commissioners to the providers of services. Key findings are that the models are likely to incur high transaction costs relating to the negotiation and specification of outcomes and rely heavily on the relational aspects of contracting. There is also found to be a lack of convincing cross‐sectoral evidence of the impact of the models, particularly in relation to improving coordination across organizations. The article questions the reconciliation of the use of these new contractual models in settings such as the English NHS with the requirements of public sector governance for transparency and accountability. The models serve to highlight the problems inherent in the NPM/post‐NPM agenda of the transfer of risk away from commissioners of services in terms of transparency and accountability.     

The Impact of 9/11 on the Noncitizen Welfare Caseload: A Time-Series Analysis

ABSTRACT

The tragedy of 9/11 had more far-reaching social and economic consequences for the nation than those found for many individuals on that day. Between October 2001 and May 2002, Nevada witnessed a 25% increase in the total number of households on the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program, commonly referred to as welfare. During the same time, households headed by a noncitizen increased their participation in the TANF program by 40%. This study examines the differential impact of 9/11, as well as of the economy and other external developments, on noncitizen and citizen welfare caseloads in a single state. Two monthly time series models are specified that explain and compare trends in the noncitizen and citizen welfare caseloads from April 1998 to June 2002. The findings suggest that, all else constant, 9/11 had a differential impact on the noncitizen and the citizen caseloads. All else constant, 9/11 events increased the noncitizen welfare caseload whereas a similar impact for the citizen caseload was not found. The findings also strongly suggest that the business cycle shapes noncitizens' participation in public assistance programs more closely than citizens' participation. Future research should investigate the extent to which 9/11 affected the behaviors of families on welfare over the long run.