中国的老年人口

老年人数2004年,我国0—14岁人口为27947万人,占总人口的21.5%,15—64岁人口92184万人,占70.9%,65岁及以上老年人口已达到9857万人,占7.6%,老少比为35.3%,年龄中位数为34.6岁。与国际常用标准对比,我国年龄结构的老年型社会特征日益突出。1953年和1964年第一、二次人口普查时,我国的人口年龄结构基本属于年轻型;1982年第三次人口普查时,人口年龄结构变为成年型;1990年第四次人口普查,人口年龄结构开始向老年型转变;到2000年第五次人口普查,人口年龄结构基本属于老年型;从本世纪开始,人口年龄结构的老年社会特征日益突出。寿命提高2000年我国…     

四川人口年龄结构变动趋势

人口年龄结构与人类经济活动有密切关系，它的变动几乎关系到一个地区社会经济发展的方方面面。本文根据第五次和第六次人口普查数据，对四川人口年龄结构变动趋势进行了分析。     

从第五次人口普查的主要数据看上海人口变化趋势

上海市第五次人口普查的主要数据已经公布。这些数据与正处理中的其他普查数据一道,将为今后上海的人口预测和社会经济发展规划提供重要的基准信息。在1990年四普与2000年五普的10年间,上海的社     

广西人口老龄化存在的突出问题及对策

据2000年第五次全国人口普查资料显示,我国人口年龄结构发生了较大的变化,65岁及以上人口占总人口的比重为6．96％,比1990年第四次全国人口普查上升了1．39个百分点。这表明,改革开放以来,随着经济社会迅速发展,人民生活水平和医疗卫生保健职业的巨大改善,特别是人口生育水平的迅速下降,我国人口老龄化进程加快。     

从第六次人口普查看中国人口生育变化的新特点

 全国第六次人口普查汇总资料的发布,为定量分析中国人口生育的特点和变化提供了可能,本文主要就生育水平、生育模式,以及生育变化的影响因素进行全面分析。研究发现,在生育水平持续下降的情况下,结构性因素逐渐成为左右未来中国生育水平走向的决定性因素;生育模式方面则体现出初婚初育间隔扩大,生育孩次向低孩次集中的方向发展;尽管年龄别已婚生育率的变化使得一般生育率上升9.61%,但在导致生育水平下降的各因素中,育龄妇女年龄结构、婚姻状态等人口结构因素的影响显得越来越重要。研究结果对于正确理解我国人口形势的过去和现在,科学地预见和适应未来具有重要的意义。     

经济大普查 数说新时代 以高质量经济普查服务四川高质量发展

<正>2024年1月1日起,第五次全国经济普查(以下简称“五经普”)的普查登记工作将全面开启。作为一项重大的国情国力调查,经济普查与人口普查、农业普查共同组成三大周期性全国普查项目,此前,我国已在2004年、2008年、2013年、2018年分别开展了四次全国经济普查,今年为第五次。     

50年来中国人口迁移的历史轨迹

所谓人口迁移,一般来说是指人口在不同区域之间的自由流动。迁移不仅与一个国家的人口政策密不可分,而且有其深刻的政治、经济和历史背景。一般情况下,一个国家人口迁移流动的曲线是平滑的,然而,通过建国50年来我国所进行的四次人口普查可以看出,中国近50年来人口迁移的历程却有着大起大落的被动性。本文以史为据、采用史论结合的方法,分析了我国人口迁移的历史轨迹。一、1953年,第一次人口普查——6亿人“闯关东”和“走西口”引起的人口迁移在建国初期,我国整个国民经济处于恢复时期,为了医治战争创伤,完成民主革命的任务,恢…     

内江:应对老龄化势在必行

人口年龄结构是人口群体在某一时点上的年龄分布状况,它不仅对未来人口发展的类型、速度和趋势有重大影响,而且对今后的社会经济发展也将产生很大的作用. 人口年龄明显老年化 据2010年内江市第六次全国人口普查结果,按常住人口计算:0～14岁人口占总人口的比重为16.6％,65及以上人口占总人口比重为11.8％,老少比为71.2％,年龄中位数为37.54岁;按户籍人口计算,该四项比值依次为15.5％、10.9％、70.2％、37.31岁,按照国际上通用的人口年龄类型划分标准(见下表),不论按哪种口径,四项指标均落在老年型人口指标值内,说明内江人口类型属典型的老年型.     

内蒙古人口发展状况及其特征

二十一世纪的第一个十年,是内蒙古人口发展变化较大的1o年.据2000年第五次人口普查(以下简称“五普”)和2010年第六次人口普查(以下简称“六普”)资料显示,10年间,内蒙古人口显现出总人口低速增长、家庭户规模继续缩小、人口性别比基本正常、人口年龄结构已由成年型转变为老年型、蒙古族人口增长速度高于汉族人口、人口受教育程度进一步提高、人口地区分布变化较大等基本特征.     

农业普查知识链接

新中国成立以来，我国先后进行了13次全国性的普查工作。其中，人口普查进行了5次、农业普查进行了1次、工业普查（含工矿企业普查）进行了3次、第三产业普查进行了1次、基本单位普查进行了2次，经济普查进行了1次。分别是1950年的第一次全国工业普查，1953年的第一次全国人口普查，1964年的第二次全国人口普查，1982年的第三次全国人口普查，1985年的第二次全国工业普查，1990年的第四次全国人口普查，1993年的全国第三产业普查，1995年的全国第三次工业普查，1996年的第一次全国基本单位普查、1997年的第一次农业普查，2000年的全国第五次人口普查，2001年的第二次全国基本单位普查，2004年第一次全国经济普查。     

Effects of future population trends on the labor market--analyses based on projections prepared by the Institute for Research on the Labor Market and Occupations

The effects of future population trends, such as demographic aging, declining fertility, and changes in migration, on the labor market in the Federal Republic of Germany are analyzed up to the year 2000. The study is based on projections prepared by the Institute for Research on the Labor Market and Occupations. Topics discussed include demographic trends as a cause of current unemployment, labor market phases and demographic trends since 1950, the projection model used, age-specific projections of the potential labor force, and labor market projections.     

Appraisal of the factors influencing changes in the total number and composition of births by mother's age

The causes of the temporary and unexpected increase in fertility in Poland that occurred at the beginning of the 1980s are reviewed. Among the possible causes considered are a change in the number of women of reproductive age, changes in the size of the female population in selected areas due to migration, and actual changes in age-specific fertility.     

The population of the USSR

Official population data for the USSR for 1986 and 1987 are presented. Tables are included on age and sex distribution; rural and urban population; birth, death, and natural increase rates, 1970-1986; fertility and mortality by sex, 1970-1986; birth order; age-specific birth rates by rural and urban area and Union republic; age-specific death rates, 1970-1986; infant mortality, 1970-1986; life expectancy, 1926-1986; life tables; marriage and age at marriage; and divorce.     

Estimating reference ranges from stratified two-stage samples

We present methodology for estimating age-specific reference ranges by using data from two-stage samples. On the basis of the information obtained in the first stage, the initial sample is stratified and random subsamples are drawn from each stratum, where the selection probabilities in this second-stage sampling may be different across strata in the population. The variable for which the reference ranges are to be established is measured at the second phase. The approach involves maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the age-specific distributions and separate estimation of the population stratum probabilities. These are combined to yield estimates of the quantiles of interest. The issue of variance estimation for the estimated quantiles is also addressed. The methodology is applied to the estimation of reference ranges for a cognitive test score in a study of non-demented older Japanese-Americans.     

基于vSEIdRm模型的人口迁移以及离汉交通管控对新冠肺炎疫情发展的影响分析

不同于传统( Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed)SEIR流行病传播动力学模型,本文在近期研究的Varying Coefficient Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Diagnosed-Removed (vSEIdR)模型基础上加上人口迁徙(Migration) 模块,设计开发了vSEIdRm模型,该模型考虑了跨区域人口迁徙对疫情传播的影响,并允许流行病传播参数随时间变化。本文首先对人口迁移数据进行统计分析,建立其与各省新冠肺炎疫情发展的联系。之后,基于vSEIdRm模型估计了疫情初期各省份来自武汉的输入病例数,并定量刻画了离汉交通管控的效果。研究结果显示,离汉交通管控措施有效地减少了各省份的疫情规模。     

The Effects of Variations in the Components of Change on the Size and Structure of The Australian Population: 1911-66

The main aim of the study was to estimate separately the effects of the variations in the components of population change and the effects of their mutual interactions on the size and age structure and other characteristics of the Australian population during 1911-66. The method proposed, called here the factorial projection method, is to project the population over the period under consideration, under different assumptions according to a 2×2×2 factorial design, utilizing the observed variations in fertility, mortality and migration. It was found that, apart from the effects of variations in the components occurring individually, the two factor interaction effects– the interaction effects of the changes occurring simultaneously in two of the components (viz. fertility and mortality or mortality and migration or fertility and migration)–on the population size, were considerable. The contribution of migration to the working age group was greater than its effect on the total size, and mortality improvement played a more prominent role in increasing the size of the old age population, while the reduction in fertility caused a higher proportion in the old age group and thus increased the mean age of the population both in the case of males and females. The two factor interaction effects were not negligible in changing the size of the school age population, population in the working age group and also in the old age group. But the interaction of migration and the decline in fertility was the only interaction effect which was important in changing the percentage age distribution and the mean age of the male and female population.     

Statistical materials. Part 4: natural increase of population in the USSR

Data are presented on the natural increase of the population in the USSR. Data for 1982-1983 are included on birth, death, and natural increase rates; births, deaths, and marriages by month; age-specific birth rates by urban or rural area and by Union Republic; deaths due to circulatory disease or cancer; marriage by age; and divorces by marriage duration and age of husband and wife.     

西部地区农村外出劳动力回流：动因及其对策

摘　　要:西部农村外出劳动力的回流,是当代中国农村人口流动的一个令人瞩目的社会现象。本文通过对影响农村外出劳动力回流的“推-拉”因素的分析,探讨农村外出劳动力回流的原因;并根据重庆市实地凋研数据资料,以家庭为分析单位,利用Probit模型回归分析了个人特征、家庭因素及利农政策对回流发生的影响大小。最后,提出现阶段推进农村剩余劳动力转移的对策建议。     

农村劳动力流动对中国粮食生产影响研究——基于省域动态面板数据的实证分析

随着工业化、城市化进程加快,农村劳动力流动规模快速增长,农民外出务工与转移步伐呈现加快现象。在市场化改革快速推进的趋势下,农村劳动力流动对农户粮食生产决策环境产生了重要影响,对粮食生产波动的影响日益凸现。为此,从农户供给反应行为入手,构建农村劳动力流动对粮食总产量、粮食平均产量的供给反应模型,采用省域动态面板数据,利用GMM方法实证分析农村劳动力流动对粮食生产影响的途径与程度。研究发现,农村劳动力流动对粮食总产量产生了重要影响,非农就业对粮食生产具有显著负向影响,而人口迁移对粮食生产具有一定促进作用。     

Incidence-based estimates of life expectancy of the healthy for the UK: coherence between transition probabilities and aggregate life-tables

Summary.  Will the UK's aging population be fit and independent, or suffer from greater chronic ill health? Life expectancy of healthy people represents the expected number of years of healthy well-being that a life-table cohort would experience if age-specific rates of mortality and disability prevailed throughout the cohort's lifetime. Robust estimation of this life expectancy is thus essential for examining whether additional years of life are spent in good health and whether life expectancy is increasing faster than the decline of rates of disability. The paper examines a means of generating estimates of life expectancy for people who are healthy and unhealthy for the UK that are consistent with exogenous population mortality data. The method takes population transition matrices and adjusts these in a statistically coherent way so as to render them consistent with aggregate life-tables.