A semi-parametric Bayesian extreme value model using a Dirichlet process mixture of gamma densities

In this paper, we propose a model with a Dirichlet process mixture of gamma densities in the bulk part below threshold and a generalized Pareto density in the tail for extreme value estimation. The proposed model is simple and flexible for posterior density estimation and posterior inference for high quantiles. The model works well even for small sample sizes and in the absence of prior information. We evaluate the performance of the proposed model through a simulation study. Finally, the proposed model is applied to a real environmental data.     

Model-based computed tomography image estimation: partitioning approach

ABSTRACT

There is a growing interest to get a fully MR based radiotherapy. The most important development needed is to obtain improved bone tissue estimation. The existing model-based methods perform poorly on bone tissues. This paper was aimed at obtaining improved bone tissue estimation. Skew-Gaussian mixture model and Gaussian mixture model were proposed to investigate CT image estimation from MR images by partitioning the data into two major tissue types. The performance of the proposed models was evaluated using the leave-one-out cross-validation method on real data. In comparison with the existing model-based approaches, the model-based partitioning approach outperformed in bone tissue estimation, especially in dense bone tissue estimation.     

Self-exciting threshold models for time series of counts with a finite range

In this article, an integer-valued self-exciting threshold model with a finite range based on the binomial INARCH(1) model is proposed. Important stochastic properties are derived, and approaches for parameter estimation are discussed. A real-data example about the regional spread of public drunkenness in Pittsburgh demonstrates the applicability of the new model in comparison to existing models. Feasible modifications of the model are presented, which are designed to handle special features such as zero-inflation.     

A new estimation method for continuous threshold expectile model

The continuous threshold expectile regression model could capture the effect of a covariate on the response variable with two different straight lines, while intersecting an unknown threshold needed be estimated. This article proposes a new estimation method via a linearization technique to estimate the regression coefficients and the threshold simultaneously. Statistical inferences of the proposed estimators are easily derived from the existing theory. Moreover, the estimation procedure is readily implemented by the current software. Simulation studies and an application on GDP per capita and quality of electricity supply data illustrate the proposed method.     

Simultaneous estimation for semi-parametric multi-index models

Estimation of a general multi-index model comprises determining the number of linear combinations of predictors (structural dimension) that are related to the response, estimating the loadings of each index vector, selecting the active predictors and estimating the underlying link function. These objectives are often achieved sequentially at different stages of the estimation process. In this study, we propose a unified estimation approach under a semi-parametric model framework to attain these estimation goals simultaneously. The proposed estimation method is more efficient and stable than many existing methods where the estimation error in the structural dimension may propagate to the estimation of the index vectors and variable selection stages. A detailed algorithm is provided to implement the proposed method. Comprehensive simulations and a real data analysis illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

Estimation in a random effects growth curve model

This paper considers estimation under the growth curve model of Potthoff and Roy (1964) with random effects. Estimation under a multivariate model is also considered. Estimation under incomplete data and estimation of random effects are also discussed. A numerical example of data on bulls is presented to illustrate these techniques.     

Data skeletons: simultaneous estimation of multiple quantiles for massive streaming datasets with applications to density estimation

We consider the problem of density estimation when the data is in the form of a continuous stream with no fixed length. In this setting, implementations of the usual methods of density estimation such as kernel density estimation are problematic. We propose a method of density estimation for massive datasets that is based upon taking the derivative of a smooth curve that has been fit through a set of quantile estimates. To achieve this, a low-storage, single-pass, sequential method is proposed for simultaneous estimation of multiple quantiles for massive datasets that form the basis of this method of density estimation. For comparison, we also consider a sequential kernel density estimator. The proposed methods are shown through simulation study to perform well and to have several distinct advantages over existing methods.     

Local Box–Cox transformation on time-varying parametric models for smoothing estimation of conditional CDF with longitudinal data

Nonparametric estimation and inferences of conditional distribution functions with longitudinal data have important applications in biomedical studies, such as epidemiological studies and longitudinal clinical trials. Estimation approaches without any structural assumptions may lead to inadequate and numerically unstable estimators in practice. We propose in this paper a nonparametric approach based on time-varying parametric models for estimating the conditional distribution functions with a longitudinal sample. Our model assumes that the conditional distribution of the outcome variable at each given time point can be approximated by a parametric model after local Box–Cox transformation. Our estimation is based on a two-step smoothing method, in which we first obtain the raw estimators of the conditional distribution functions at a set of disjoint time points, and then compute the final estimators at any time by smoothing the raw estimators. Applications of our two-step estimation method have been demonstrated through a large epidemiological study of childhood growth and blood pressure. Finite sample properties of our procedures are investigated through a simulation study. Application and simulation results show that smoothing estimation from time-variant parametric models outperforms the existing kernel smoothing estimator by producing narrower pointwise bootstrap confidence band and smaller root mean squared error.     

Semiparametric model average prediction in panel data analysis

Forecasting in economic data analysis is dominated by linear prediction methods where the predicted values are calculated from a fitted linear regression model. With multiple predictor variables, multivariate nonparametric models were proposed in the literature. However, empirical studies indicate the prediction performance of multi-dimensional nonparametric models may be unsatisfactory. We propose a new semiparametric model average prediction (SMAP) approach to analyse panel data and investigate its prediction performance with numerical examples. Estimation of individual covariate effect only requires univariate smoothing and thus may be more stable than previous multivariate smoothing approaches. The estimation of optimal weight parameters incorporates the longitudinal correlation and the asymptotic properties of the estimated results are carefully studied in this paper.     

Estimation of semiparametric regression model with longitudinal data

In a longitudinal study, an individual is followed up over a period of time. Repeated measurements on the response and some time-dependent covariates are taken at a series of sampling times. The sampling times are often irregular and depend on covariates. In this paper, we propose a sampling adjusted procedure for the estimation of the proportional mean model without having to specify a sampling model. Unlike existing procedures, the proposed method is robust to model misspecification of the sampling times. Large sample properties are investigated for the estimators of both regression coefficients and the baseline function. We show that the proposed estimation procedure is more efficient than the existing procedures. Large sample confidence intervals for the baseline function are also constructed by perturbing the estimation equations. A simulation study is conducted to examine the finite sample properties of the proposed estimators and to compare with some of the existing procedures. The method is illustrated with a data set from a recurrent bladder cancer study.     

On modelling data from degradation sample paths over time

This paper is mainly concerned with modelling data from degradation sample paths over time. It uses a general growth curve model with Box‐Cox transformation, random effects and ARMA(p, q) dependence to analyse a set of such data. A maximum likelihood estimation procedure for the proposed model is derived and future values are predicted, based on the best linear unbiased prediction. The paper compares the proposed model with a nonlinear degradation model from a prediction point of view. Forecasts of failure times with various data lengths in the sample are also compared.     

A BAYESIAN SIMULATION APPROACH TO INFERENCE ON A MULTI‐STATE LATENT FACTOR INTENSITY MODEL

The influence of economic conditions on the movement of a variable between states (for example a change in credit rating from A to B) can be modelled using a multi‐state latent factor intensity framework. Estimation of this type of model is, however, not straightforward, as transition probabilities are involved and the model contains a few highly analytically intractable distributions. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is adopted to manage the distributions. The innovation in the sampling algorithm used to obtain the posterior distributions of the model parameters includes a particle filter step and a Metropolis–Hastings step within a Gibbs sampler. The feasibility and accuracy of the proposed sampling algorithm is supported with a few simulated examples. The paper contains an application concerning what caused 1049 firms to change their credit ratings over a span of ten years.     

The Gaussian Mixture Dynamic Conditional Correlation Model: Parameter Estimation,Value at Risk Calculation,and Portfolio Selection

A multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with dynamic conditional correlations is proposed, in which the individual conditional volatilities follow exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models and the standardized innovations follow a mixture of Gaussian distributions. Inference on the model parameters and prediction of future volatilities are addressed by both maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation methods. Estimation of the Value at Risk of a given portfolio and selection of optimal portfolios under the proposed specification are addressed. The good performance of the proposed methodology is illustrated via Monte Carlo experiments and the analysis of the daily closing prices of the Dow Jones and NASDAQ indexes.     

Finite mixtures of quantile and M-quantile regression models

In this paper we define a finite mixture of quantile and M-quantile regression models for heterogeneous and /or for dependent/clustered data. Components of the finite mixture represent clusters of individuals with homogeneous values of model parameters. For its flexibility and ease of estimation, the proposed approaches can be extended to random coefficients with a higher dimension than the simple random intercept case. Estimation of model parameters is obtained through maximum likelihood, by implementing an EM-type algorithm. The standard error estimates for model parameters are obtained using the inverse of the observed information matrix, derived through the Oakes (J R Stat Soc Ser B 61:479–482, 1999) formula in the M-quantile setting, and through nonparametric bootstrap in the quantile case. We present a large scale simulation study to analyse the practical behaviour of the proposed model and to evaluate the empirical performance of the proposed standard error estimates for model parameters. We considered a variety of empirical settings in both the random intercept and the random coefficient case. The proposed modelling approaches are also applied to two well-known datasets which give further insights on their empirical behaviour.     

Estimation of a rare sensitive attribute for two-stage randomized response model in probability proportional to size sampling using Poisson probability distribution

This paper addresses the estimation of the mean number of individuals in the population who possess a rare sensitive attribute using Poisson distribution for the situations of (i) clustered population and (ii) stratified population with clusters are strata units. Properties of the proposed estimation procedures have been discussed when the proportion of a rare unrelated non-sensitive attribute is assumed to be known as well as unknown. Empirical studies are carried out to support the theoretical results which showed dominance over Lee et al. [Estimation of a rare sensitive attribute in probability proportional to size measures using Poisson distribution. Statistics (Ber). 2014;48(3):685–709] estimation procedures.     

On progressively censored inverted exponentiated Rayleigh distribution

In this paper, we discuss a progressively censored inverted exponentiated Rayleigh distribution. Estimation of unknown parameters is considered under progressive censoring using maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. Bayes estimators of unknown parameters are derived with respect to different symmetric and asymmetric loss functions using gamma prior distributions. An importance sampling procedure is taken into consideration for deriving these estimates. Further highest posterior density intervals for unknown parameters are constructed and for comparison purposes bootstrap intervals are also obtained. Prediction of future observations is studied in one- and two-sample situations from classical and Bayesian viewpoint. We further establish optimum censoring schemes using Bayesian approach. Finally, we conduct a simulation study to compare the performance of proposed methods and analyse two real data sets for illustration purposes.     

Small area estimation under a multivariate linear model for repeated measures data

In this article, small area estimation under a multivariate linear model for repeated measures data is considered. The proposed model aims to get a model which borrows strength both across small areas and over time. The model accounts for repeated surveys, grouped response units, and random effects variations. Estimation of model parameters is discussed within a likelihood based approach. Prediction of random effects, small area means across time points, and per group units are derived. A parametric bootstrap method is proposed for estimating the mean squared error of the predicted small area means. Results are supported by a simulation study.     

GQL estimation in linear dynamic models for panel data

In the econometrics literature, it is standard practice to use the existing instrumental variables as well as generalized method of moments approaches for the estimation of the parameters of a linear dynamic mixed model for panel data. In this paper, we introduce a generalized quasi-likelihood estimation approach that produces estimates with smaller mean squared errors when compared with the aforementioned and other existing approaches.     

Computation of an efficient and robust estimator in a semiparametric mixture model

In this article, we propose an efficient and robust estimation for the semiparametric mixture model that is a mixture of unknown location-shifted symmetric distributions. Our estimation is derived by minimizing the profile Hellinger distance (MPHD) between the model and a nonparametric density estimate. We propose a simple and efficient algorithm to find the proposed MPHD estimation. Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure and to compare it with other existing methods. Based on our empirical studies, the newly proposed procedure works very competitively compared to the existing methods for normal component cases and much better for non-normal component cases. More importantly, the proposed procedure is robust when the data are contaminated with outlying observations. A real data application is also provided to illustrate the proposed estimation procedure.     

Bernstein polynomial model for grouped continuous data

Grouped data are commonly encountered in applications. All data from a continuous population are grouped due to rounding of the individual observations. The Bernstein polynomial model is proposed as an approximate model in this paper for estimating a univariate density function based on grouped data. The coefficients of the Bernstein polynomial, as the mixture proportions of beta distributions, can be estimated using an EM algorithm. The optimal degree of the Bernstein polynomial can be determined using a change-point estimation method. The rate of convergence of the proposed density estimate to the true density is proved to be almost parametric by an acceptance–rejection argument used for generating random numbers. The proposed method is compared with some existing methods in a simulation study and is applied to the Chicken Embryo Data.