The research of population science must initiate a new situation]

The basis for initiating a new situation in population research lies in Hu Yaobang's address at the 12th National Congress when he said that the population problem is of extreme importance and that birth control is a basic national policy. The rapid population growth, he continued, influences income, food, clothing, shelter, education and work, and it might even influence the stability of a society. Thus, birth control work, particularly in the countryside, must never be lax. But if the work is done well, then population control can be successful. There already exists a good basis for population research. Since the 1970s, demography developed rapidly, whether it was in population theory, population control, disseminating information, training cadres for census work, projecting population, or in developing professional relationships on an international level. The Population Association of China, established in 1981, was followed by population associations in the provinces, cities, and autonomous regions. In the last 2 years, the Population Association of China convened 5 specialized meetings. Currently China has a Population Research Center and 217 offices, plus demographic studies at the People's University and Fudan University. In initiating a new situation in demography, one should study new situations, sum up new experiences, and solve new problems. The national policy is to control population numbers and raise population quality. This can be done by educating peasants that female babies are worthwhile, protecting mothers who bear female babies, and encouraging eugenics.     

The new point in population theory: some questions in the current demographic textbooks]

The current population theory in China emphasize that human reproduction must keep pace with the production of goods and services. The author of this paper challenges this theory and believes that the relationship between these two kinds of production, human reproduction should take the principal place. Production of goods and services must first meet the needs of people. Keeping population growth in pace with production of goods and services is of secondary importance. The demographic transition from high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and low mortality in developed country was not caused by poverty, hunger, and surplus of the labor force, and it was not the end result of forcing population growth to stay in pace with material production. Increasing productivity to provide abundant goods depend on improving the quality of the population. When the purpose of consumption is not only for survival, demands for material goods and leisure will take precedence over demands for children. An-emphasis on keeping population reproduction in pace with the production of goods and services tends to ignore the importance of increasing productivity which is the key to the improvement of living standards.     

Study thoroughly the Marxist theory on population, develop population science in China]

The Third National Population Science Congress emphasized the production theory of Marxism, the basic difference between China's population control and the old and new Malthusianism, and possible social problems caused by the one child per couple policy. The meeting was well-organized, and the participants were actively involved; it included a keynote speech, group discussions, and seminars by specialists. Most people agreed that population production should be included in the social economy and that both material and population production should together decide the development of the society. Some people believed that Malthus' population theory is antirevolutionary and totally unacceptable. Others thought that there are some positive aspects such as the coordination of population with consumer goods and his population control measures. Many valuable suggestions were made in the meeting concerning population control. This Congress also established a Chinese Population Society, passed the bylaws, and elected members of the board of directors for the Society. Vice-Premier Chen gave an important closing speech about the importance of family planning and population control.     

The Marxist outlook on population]

Marxist population theory and world population are discussed. From his study of capitalist population theory Marx concluded, "In capitalist reproduction, poverty produces population," thus rejecting Malthusian population determinism theory and developing economic determinism. According to UN statistics, world population has stabilized since the middle of this century after having doubled every hundred years for the last 300; population in the developed countries showed a positive decrease and average net population growth of the developing countries also decreased. The premise of this paper is that population grows according to social economy development. During the last several hundred years, world wealth increased much faster than population; in the last 200 years alone, the population has increased fivefold, but wealth fortyfold. In addition, world population analysis reveals an inverse relationship between wealth and population in the developed and developing countries: the poorer the country, the greater the population. From this perspective, the study of population must begin with surplus labor. Accumulation of surplus production is the foundation of continuous social development and the basis for population growth. The major difference in methods between capitalist countries and China is that the capitalist-planned fertility affects the individual family while Chinese-planned fertility has the whole nation in mind. Human fertility is determined by the economic system. Private ownership determines the private nature of fertility and public ownership determines the public nature of fertility. Thus population development is determined by the accumulation of social wealth.     

The population situation in Africa]

The population growth rate in Africa has been the highest in the world since 1970--about 2.7% annually. A lower mortality rate because of better health conditions, their tradition of early marriage and polygamy, and the predominantly agricultural economy are the main reasons. The lack of coordination of such rapid population growth with the slow economic development and backward industrial and agricultural conditions have caused a very serious unemployment problem and inhibit increases in the living standard. The vast areas of desert and equatorial forest are sparsely inhabited. The coastline, Nile delta, and the plateaus are the most densely populated areas of the world. The abnormally developed cities cause expansion of the urban population and serious problems in employment, housing, traffic, health, and education. Many leaders of African countries have begun to realize the seriousness of the rapid population growth, and a few have begun family planning programs. Most countries have no official policies concerning population control and a few even encourage population growth.     

Change of population policy and the population situation in China]

A correct population policy is very crucial to the solution of the population problem, economic development, and social progress. The real situation in China now is a large population, a high rate of population growth, and low level of productivity. Facing this situation, China's population policy should include control of population growth in quantity, a promotion of population quality, and a match between population growth and social and economic development for the final realization of the Four Modernizations. In recent years, under the leadership of the National Committee on Family Planning, together with cooperation from various offices at the local level, a great change has taken place in China's population situation. The fertility rate has declined gradually, and late marriage, delayed births, and a reduced number of births have also become popular. A change in the age structure of the population has also slowed the pace of population growth. A reduction in the ratio of women of childbearing age is also helpful in the control of population growth, and the natural growth rate for the population has declined. This change shows that family planning is working in China and great results have been achieved. To come closer to the national goal of population control, practical work should be focused on rural areas. The rural population constitutes about 80% of total population and the fertility rate in rural areas is much higher than that of the cities. If population control can be achieved in the rural areas, the overall goal of population control for the country can then be achieved more easily.     

A brief analysis of population pressure on agricultural production under the new situation]

China's agricultural industry is currently undergoing a gradual transition from its previously restrictive self-sufficient natural economy to a more commercialized system of production. This transition has already effected an increase in China's agricultural productivity. Moreover, efforts toward planned population growth have made significant headway in China's rural areas. With all these changes, the large, unskilled Chinese farm family is currently facing mounting economic troubles as the new system of commercialized farming now rewards the technically skilled and economically efficient farmer. The problems facing many large farm families in China's north central province of Shaanxi are discussed, as well as the deficiencies of the system of farmland apportionment which awards farmland according to family size, instead of family capital resources and productivity.     

Learning-by-doing,population pressure,and the theory of demographic transition

The present paper discusses the long-run effects of two interdependent relations between economic and population growth. According to a frequently used formulation of the population-push hypothesis, learning-by-doing effects in production lead to increasing returns to scale and, therefore, to a positive correlation between economic and population growth. In accordance to the theory of demographic transition the population growth rate initially increases with rising income levels and then declines. Regarding this relationship, the existence and stability of a low-income equilibrium and a high-income equilibrium will be shown in a neoclassical growth model. Under plausible conditions a demo-economic transition from the first to the second steady-state takes place. The result yields a meaningful interpretation of the population-push hypothesis, which is consistent with the empirical findings on the correlation between economic and population growth. Received March 8, 1996 / Accepted October 24, 1996     

人口学界对“以人为本”思想的理解和研究

“以人为本”思想起源甚早,国内外许多领域的专家、学者以及实际工作者对这一思想都有过阐述和研究。从我国人口学的视角出发,结合三十多年以来我国计划生育政策的实践与发展,系统地总结了国内人口学界对“以人为本”思想的理解和研究。     

宁夏银川市流动人口现状暨对策研究

本文在考察宁夏银川市流动人口动因、构成特征、职业状况等方面的基础上,研究与探讨流动人口对宁夏银川市在城市化进程与经济发展以及构建和谐社会方面的影响,试图在此基础上,提出关于对银川市流动人口发展与管理的对策。     

An analysis of the 1987 population situation in China]

Presented here is an analysis of some of the manually collected data from a 1% random sample of China's population taken on 7/1/87. 1)Population growth: The population grew 6.36% from 1982-87 to give a total population of 1,072,330,000. Even though the average annual growth rate of 1.24% during these years is slower than the growth rate of the 1950s and 1960s, this does not mean that China can be complacent about it. Due to China's large population base, every year its population increases by about 13,000,000, with serious implications for consumerism, education and labor. The natural rate of growth dropped during 1982-84, but by 1987, it had increased again to 1981 levels. If China is to limit its population to 1.25 billion by 2000, the average annual growth rate must remain below 1.23%, which is lower than the figures of recent years. 2) Sex differences: the population was 51.1% male and 48.9% female. 3) Age structure: 28.68% of the population were 14 years and younger; 65.86% were between 15-64 years; 5.46% were 65 years and older. The median age was 24.2 years. The percentage of the 0-14 year bracket dropped about 7.6% from 1953-87, while the 15-64 year olds increased 6.6% and the 65 years and older group increased 1%. On the surface, a 1% increase of the aged would not present a problem to China taken as a whole. However, when densely populated areas such as Shanghai are looked at, the situation demands immediate attention. 4) Ethnic groups: 92% of the population were Han. Minorities increased 5% annually between 1982-87 to comprise 8% of the population. This rapid growth among minorities is due in part to official permission for families to bear more than one child, and to better sanitary and medical attention. 6) Population distribution: 37.1% of the population lived in urban areas, as compared with 10% in 1949. By 1990 the urban population could reach 40%, creating serious social, economic and political pressure on cities.     

Studying Marx's discussion on the position and role of population in social and economic development]

According to Marx and Engels, population is the premise for material life. The difference between man and animal is that man, in order to exist, must have a means of subsistence; thus, his 1st historical activity is to produce these means while at the same time reproduce himself. The function and position of population is to serve as the basis and primary force for all social productive activities. Population further serves as the basis for its own material production. All human relationships and functions, regardless of form or situation, influence material production. Actually, population itself is a kind of productive force as well as consuming force. Population produces material goods which ultimately are used by the population. Hence population is the unification of production and consumption. That is, population's activities consist of production and consumption. According to Marx, accumulated capital regulates population development; at the same time, population development influences the accumulation of capital. Population growth must be the basis for the realization of accumulated capital. In addition, population structure influences the accumulation of capital. Within a single nation, the larger the laboring class, the more prosperous is the country. Among countries, however, this principle is not necessarily so. Marx also believed that raising production rates is the basic way to increase accumulated capital. And, a necessary condition for raising production rates is to raise the quality of population.     

The population situation and its relation to the economy in Turkey]

In southwest Asia, Turkey is a leading nation in collecting complete data on its population through the use of a modern census. Based on available information, the development of Turkey's population can be summarized as follows: 1) in the last 20 years, Turkey's population increase rate has been 2% annually, very high by world standards; 2) the average age is young, and the population's burden coefficient is above 80%; and 3) the geographical distribution of the population is uneven. The population density in central, eastern, and southeastern parts of the country is low, while the coastal provinces near the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and Aegean Sea have a high population density. In the last 50 years, the political situation in Turkey has remained stable. The national economy has developed rapidly, and the infant mortality rate has declined as a result of advancements in medicine and health care. Since Turkey is an Islamic country, birth control and abortion are not popular. The traditional early marriage for women and high illiteracy rate among women have contributed to a rapid population growth. In the past 20 years, however, the national economy has been overburdened by a rapid population growth. Problems of unemployment, a housing shortage in cities, inadequate public health facilities, a shortage of schools, a decline in farm land and inadequate food supplies have become increasingly obvious. Economically speaking, Turkey is much better than most developing nations. With its current foundation and rich natural resources, the country needs only to reduce the natural population increase rate slightly in order to achieve a balanced economic development.     

Transition of demographic pattern in Japan since World War II and its population problems]

After World War 2 the Japanese population increased sharply at an annual rate of 3.4% from 1947 to 1949, but the rate quickly decreased and stabilized at 1.7% by 1957. It decreased again after 1973 and fell to 1.42% by 1979. In the 1950's most Japanese were forced to use birth control and abortion because of poor economic conditions. The rapid economic development in the 1960's, the increased living standard and educational level, and the population control measures taken by their government were important factors in successfully restraining population growth. The postwar baby boom and the marked population decrease afterward created an irregular population age composition, and the increasing percentage of elderly in Japan placed a heavy burden on their government. Rapid urban developments resulted in abnormal population distribution--53.5% of the population occupying 1.7% of the land, while 7.6% of the population occupied 44.1% of the land. The Japanese government recognized the serious economic consequences of the polarized population distribution and took some corrective measures. Another economic problem, their dependence on foreign imports of natural resources and grains (except rice) is difficult to change because of the shortage of farmland and natural resources in Japan. They have made an obvious improvement in environmental protection in recent years. The next step in Japan is continuing population control and emphasis on the improvement of the population quality.     

The effect of new industries on changes in population]

Since 1978, China's Qionggang township (population, 8023; area, 3 sq. km), traditionally a fishing village on Jiangsu province's Huanghai coast, has been investing its local capital in an effort to establish several industrial enterprises including its own full-time local labor force. Currently, the rapidly expanding factory work force exceeds the number of fishermen. In addition to providing a statistically detailed chronology of the socioeconomic transition from a small fishing settlement to a rapidly growing industrial town, free-time activities, educational pursuits, and life styles of the newly formed labor force are discussed. From 1981 to 1983, Qionggang's industrial sector produced 4 metal vessels which were delivered directly to the town's fishing sector. With the town's newly generated economic wealth, commercial and public service facilities (i.e., a hospital, a kindergarten, several stores, a bank, and a credit union) have emerged. The economic development of Qionggang township has inspired other rural villages to clear and develop nearby land for similar industrial growth.     

A gold key to initiate a new situation in family planning work]

Because of the popularization of a responsible agricultural production system, the livilihood of peasants has been improving greatly, while the demands and needs of the general public are also increasing at the same time. Still under the influence of the traditional belief of carrying on one's family line and emphasis on having male children, married people prefer to have more childre, and the birth rate is now rising again. In order to solve this new problem, we need to teach the peasants national policies on population, land utilization, and food supply. In order to initiate a new situation in family planning work, we need to control this "gold key" of ideological education and propaganda. The emphasis should be placed on ideological education for cadres at all levels as well as the general public in order that they may understand the Party's strategy. Education on the national strategy should be combined with material interests of the peasants, and reward and punishment in production should also be linked up with that of family planning. Social measures are needed to reduce economic burdens of the peasants, offer better treatment for single-child households, and provide adequate care for old and retired people. Family planning projects should be consolidated and improved. Scientific management, facilities and techniques for birth control, compensation for working personnel in family planning, and other practical problems deserve immediate attention and solution.     

中国人口科学研究的新阶段——“全面建设小康社会人口与发展研讨会”综述

人口问题在全面建设小康社会中占有十分重要的地位,"全面建设小康社会人口与发展研讨会"汇集了人口理论工作者和实践工作者的最新研究成果,促进了人口发展研究的深入开展。     

Research on population theory must be integrated with China's reality]

This article is based upon a speech delivered by the author to a conference on population theory in memory of the centennial celebration of the death of Karl Marx. The conference was organized by the Institute of Population Theory of the Chinese People's University. According to the author, the only correct way to study population theory is to use the Marxist population theory as a guiding principle and integrate it with China's reality, and the format of dogmatism should not be adopted. The work on population theory studies should be established on a political and scientific foundation. The Chinese people should have a clear understanding of the goal of limiting China's population figure to under 1.2 billion at the end of this century. To reach this goal, the general public must be educated and understand to close relationship between family planning and the economic and social development of all of China. Family planning is a absolute necessity for the fundamental interests of China as a nation and as a people. Technical personnel and scientific theorists should be trained and organized in order that their work may satisfy the needs of China's reality. Family planning work should also be handled according to China's current situation.