UNCERTAINTY,PERSISTENCE, AND HETEROGENEITY: A PANEL DATA PERSPECTIVE

The purpose of this paper is to review newly developed identification and estimation tools that are relevant for the analysis of dynamic dependence structures of income risk. I present an application to nonlinear permanent–transitory models of household income using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), but the empirical approach is more generally applicable. Household income processes are of interest because the size of shocks, the nature of their persistence, and cross‐household heterogeneity are all important to understand how income inequality varies with age and cohort and how it translates into consumption inequality. I argue that going from an econometrics of autocovariances to an econometrics of flexible distributions is feasible and has the potential to reveal richer aspects of risk—for example, nonlinear persistence of unusual shocks.     

EMERGENCE AND PERSISTENCE OF INEFFICIENT STATES

We present a theory of the emergence and persistence of inefficient states based on patronage politics. The society consists of rich and poor. The rich are initially in power, but expect to transition to democracy, which will choose redistributive policies. Taxation requires the employment of bureaucrats. By choosing an inefficient state structure, the rich may be able to use patronage and capture democratic politics, so reducing the amount of redistribution in democracy. Moreover, the inefficient state creates its own constituency and tends to persist over time. Intuitively, an inefficient state structure creates more rents for bureaucrats than would an efficient one. When the poor come to power in democracy, they will reform the structure of the state to make it more efficient so that higher taxes can be collected at lower cost and with lower rents for bureaucrats. Anticipating this, when the society starts out with an inefficient organization of the state, bureaucrats support the rich, who set lower taxes but also provide rents to bureaucrats. We obtain that the rich–bureaucrats coalition may also expand the size of bureaucracy excessively so as to generate enough political support. The model shows that an equilibrium with an inefficient state is more likely to arise when there is greater income inequality, when bureaucratic rents take intermediate values, and when individuals are sufficiently forward‐looking.     

NEGOTIATED TRANSFER PRICING AND CONFLICT RESOLUTION IN ORGANIZATIONS

An experiment was conducted to test hypotheses about conflict related to negotiated transfer pricing. A business game with repeated decision periods was used to simulate transfer pricing negotiations between corporate divisions. When the evaluation of division executives emphasized corporate profits rather than divisional profits, there was more smoothing and integrative problem solving and less aggressive-competitive behavior, relations between the divisions were better, and more cooperation was observed to occur in other decisions unrelated to the transfer pricing. Moreover, corporate profits from the transfer product and its derivative product tended to be larger. All of these effects were most pronounced when the transfer product was important to both divisions as a source of profits.     

MULTI-MACHINE,MULTI-PRODUCT PRODUCTION SCHEDULING AND INVENTORY CONTROL

This paper deals with a multi-machine, multi-product lot size determination and scheduling problem. The model developed here considers not only the usual inventory-related operational cost, but also the costs that depend on under- or over-utilization of available men and machines. It penalizes overtime or idle time at any facility. The solution minimizes the inventory and resource-related costs and not just inventory costs. A heuristic is developed to determine the solution from the model and to modify it, as necessary, to obtain a conflict-free, repetitive, and cyclic production schedule for an infinite horizon. Although this model is developed for a manufacturing situation, the words machine, job, and machine shop are used in a symbolic sense, and hence the model can be used in practice in a variety of circumstances.     

SHIFTING PRODUCTION BOTTLENECKS: CAUSES,CURES, AND CONUNDRUMS

We examine the phenomenon of shifting production bottlenecks from an analytic perspective. We quantify the propensity of a work center to be a bottleneck, defined as maximal queue length, using a simple Jackson production network model. Comparison of the analytic model against an empirical simulation-based model shows that the two are in good agreement. A scalar measure of bottleneck shiftiness is proposed and used to investigate several policies for mitigating shiftiness. Simulation experiments show that several commonly observed managerial policies for coping with shifting bottlenecks actually increase shiftiness, but that shiftiness declines when the capacity of nonbottleneck resources is increased.     

RELIABILITY-CONSTRAINED PRICING,CAPACITY, AND QUALITY: AN ILLUSTRATION OF ECONOMIC CONCEPTS TO POSTAL SERVICES

A model is developed from which welfare-optimal prices, capacities, and reliabilities for a service provider are simultaneously determined. Solutions are determined under conditions of stochastic demand subject to a reliability constraint on service quality. Both quality of service provided, as well as price, impact on demand for services rendered. Results indicate that (i) optimal prices are equated to the reliability-constrained marginal costs, (ii) optimal reliabilities require that the marginal benefits of increasing reliability are equated to the marginal costs of doing so, and (iii) optimal capacity allocation involves minimizing the system's expected costs subject to meeting the prespecified reliability constraint for service quality. The model is applied to postal delivery services in light of the growing competition that has emerged in this industry.     

STRATEGIC PRODUCTION COMPETENCE: CONVERGENT,DISCRIMINANT, AND PREDICTIVE VALIDITY

A resource-based construct of manufacturing competence, termed strategic production competence, is examined with respect to its convergent, discriminant, and predictive validity. The construct evaluates manufacturing performance across a comprehensive domain of competitive priorities relative to item importance and performance. Data from an earlier study of furniture firms (n = 65) are used for statistical testing. The results establish the convergent and discriminant validity of strategic production competence and show that it is positively related to business performance.     

EFFECTS OF INTEGRATING ORDER/BACKORDER QUANTITY AND PRICING DECISIONS

We consider a monopolistic situation where the retailer aims to find the profit-maximizing selling price, and the order and backorder quantity of an item. The price and demand are assumed to be inversely related. We develop a simple optimal approach, the proportion-balancing algorithm (PBA), which utilizes the proportions of cost components to sales revenue. We demonstrate that the PBA can handle three commonly used demand functions. However, applicability of the PBA depends on how the price-demand relationship is specified. A sensitivity analysis shows that the effects of changes in cost parameters on the order and backorder quantities can be very different from those of the classical economic order quantity model with backorders.     

FAIR PRICING

This paper explores the consequences of supposing that consumers see a firm as fair if they cannot reject the hypothesis that the firm is somewhat benevolent towards them. When consumers can reject this hypothesis, some become angry, which is costly to the firm. The desire to appear benevolent can lead firms to adopt third‐degree price discrimination based on the income of different consumer classes while foreswearing third‐degree price discrimination based on differences in the elasticity of demand. It can also explain why prices seem to be more responsive to changes in factor costs than to changes in demand that have the same effect on marginal cost. Lastly, if consumers experience regret or disappointment when faced by increased prices, the model can explain why prices can be more rigid in response to disasters that increase demand dramatically than they are when there is a less substantial increase in demand.     

PRICING RISK IN ECONOMIES WITH HETEROGENEOUS AGENTS AND INCOMPLETE MARKETS

Habit formation has been proposed as a possible solution to the equity premium puzzle. This paper extends the class of models that support the habits explanation in order to account for heterogeneity in earnings, wealth, habits, and consumption. I find that habit formation does indeed increase the equity premium. However, contrary to earlier results, the habit hypothesis does not imply a price for risk as largeas the one measured in the data. There are three reasons for this. First, households in a habits economy modify their consumption/savings decision. Second, they modify their portfolio choice. These two changes in behavior diminish the consumption fluctuations faced by households. Third, the composition of the set of agents pricing risk in the economy changes so that relatively better self‐insured households end up pricing risk. (JEL: D52, G12, E21, C68)     

SIMULATION AND THE CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL: A COMMENT*

This paper challenges Lewellen and Long's contention that a Hertz-type simulation generates irrelevant data for the evaluation of capital expenditure opportunities. The conclusion is reached that an estimate of an asset's “own risk” may be a vital first step in estimating its covariance properties with the market index. A method of incorporating the information generated by simulation into the capital asset pricing model is also provided.     

COMBINED PRODUCTION AND MAINTENANCE SCHEDULING FOR A MULTIPLE‐PRODUCT,SINGLE‐ MACHINE PRODUCTION SYSTEM

Traditionally, the problems of equipment maintenance scheduling and production scheduling in a multi‐product environment have been treated independently. In this paper, we develop a Markov decision process model that simultaneously determines maintenance and production schedules for a multiple‐product, single‐machine production system, accounting for the fact that equipment condition can affect the yield of different product types differently. The problem was motivated by an application in semiconductor manufacturing. After examining structural properties of the optimal policy, we compare the combined method to an approach often used in practice. In the nearly 6,000 test problems studied, the reward from the combined method was an average of more than 25 percent greater than the reward from the traditional method.     

LONG‐TERM PERSISTENCE

We study whether a positive historical shock can generate long‐term persistence in development. We show that Italian cities that achieved self‐government in the Middle Ages have a higher level of civic capital today than similar cities in the same area that did not. The size of this effect increases with the length of the period of independence and its intensity. This effect persists even after accounting for the fact that cities did not become independent randomly. We conjecture that the Middle‐Age experience of self‐government fostered self‐efficacy beliefs—beliefs in one's own ability to complete tasks and reach goals—and this positive attitude, transmitted across generations, enhances civic capital today. Consistently, we find that fifth‐graders in former free city‐states exhibit stronger self‐efficacy beliefs and that these beliefs are correlated with a higher level of civic capital. (JEL: O43, P16, O10)     

EXPECTATIONS‐BASED REFERENCE‐DEPENDENT PREFERENCES AND ASSET PRICING

This paper explores the quantitative asset‐pricing implications of expectations‐based reference‐dependent preferences, as introduced by Koszegi and Rabin (2009, American Economic Review, 99(3), 909–936), in an otherwise traditional Lucas‐tree model. I find that the model easily succeeds in matching the historical equity premium and its variability when the preference parameters are calibrated in line with micro evidence. The equity premium is high because expectations‐based loss aversion makes uncertain fluctuations in consumption more painful. Additionally, loss aversion introduces variation in returns because unexpected cuts in consumption are particularly painful, and the agent wants to postpone such cuts to let his reference point decrease. This variation generates strong predictability. However, it also causes counterfactually high volatility in the risk‐free rate, which I address by allowing for variation in expected consumption growth, heteroskedasticity in consumption growth, time‐variant disaster risk, and sluggish belief updating.     

A COMPARISON OF PRODUCTION SCHEDULING POLICIES ON COSTS,SERVICE LEVEL,AND SCHEDULE CHANGES

We consider a single product, single level, stochastic master production scheduling (Mps ) model where decisions are made under rolling planning horizons. Outcomes of interest are cost, service level, and schedule stability. The subject of this research is the Mps control system: the method used in determining the amount of stock planned for production in each time period. Typically, Mps control systems utilize a single buffer stock. Here, two Mps dual-buffer stock systems are developed and tested by simulation. We extend the data envelopment analysis (dea ) methodology to aid in the evaluation of the simulation results, where Dea serves to increase the scope of the experimental design. Results indicate that the dual-buffer control systems outperform existing policies.     

EQUIVALENCE RESULTS FOR OPTIMAL PASS‐THROUGH,OPTIMAL INDEXING TO EXCHANGE RATES,AND OPTIMAL CHOICE OF CURRENCY FOR EXPORT PRICING

Firms sometimes write price lists or catalogs for their exports, so they set prices for a period of time and do not adjust prices during that interval in response to changes in their environment. The firm sets the price either in its own currency or the importer's currency. This paper draws a simple link between the choice of currency and the pricing decision of a firm that changes prices in response to all shocks. Specifically, if the latter firm's price has a lower variance in terms of its own currency than the importer's currency, then the firm with a price list will set the price in its own currency (and otherwise it will set price in the foreign currency). This relationship is established by consideration of the firm with a price list as a special case of a firm that indexes its export price to the exchange rate. (JEL: F4, F1)     

ORGANIZATIONAL SEGMENTATION AND LABOR TRANSFER POLICIES IN LABOR AND MACHINE LIMITED PRODUCTION SYSTEMS

This paper describes a simulation study to examine the effects of different organizational structures on the performance of a dual-constraint job shop production system. A hypothetical shop in which machines and workers are constraining resources is the setting of the study. The shop consists of divisions comprised of work centers which contain machines to which workers are assigned. There are fewer workers than machines. Variations in organizational structure are achieved by segmenting a fixed number of work centers equally into varying numbers of divisions. Mean flow-time, flow-time variance, and worker transfers between divisions and work centers are used as performance measures. Changes in organizational segmentation are shown to affect the performance of the production system and the effects are dependent on the extent to which workers can be transferred between the divisions of the system.     

AN ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF THE OPTIMIZED PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY SOFTWARE AND ITS USE

During the 19805 much attention, both pro and con, was directed toward optimized production technology (OPT). Criticism was directed at the proprietary nature of the scheduling algorithms within the software. Despite these criticisms, many large companies installed OPT. Little has been written on how the software is constructed and operates. This article introduces the software, provides a discussion of how it interfaces with management, and how various algorithms are imbedded in the software function. Last, a survey of companies that had implemented the software revealed that the major users are in the automotive industry.     

MODELING LEARNING CURVE AND LEARNING COMPLEMENTARITY FOR RESOURCE ALLOCATION AND PRODUCTION SCHEDULING*

Research on learning effects in mathematical programming models for optimum resource allocation has called attention to the difficulty in solving such models in their original nonlinear form. In this paper, systematically varying sizes of linear segments are designed to approximate productivity changes along the learning curve, and a single separable linear programming model is developed. With production complementarity and learning transmission between products, a more realistic resource allocation and production scheduling problem emerges. Two cases of learning transmissions are considered, and the model design process, which defines a decision problem that can be solved by a simplex algorithm, is demonstrated.