伊朗的阿富汗政策及其走向

伊朗是阿富汗的西邻,在阿富汗有着重要影响力,尤其是在语言、宗教和文化等方面。从美国发动打击阿富汗“塔利班”政权的战争后至今,伊朗在阿富汗政治和经济重建、民族和解、打击毒品走私等方面都发挥着重要作用。伊朗反对美军在阿富汗长期存在。2014年后,国际安全援助部队将大部分撤出阿富汗。伊朗会继续推动阿富汗政治、社会稳定,防止“塔利班”东山再起,参与阿富汗经济重建,但其政策也会根据地区和国际形势变化进行调整。     

外部干预、精英惯习与阿富汗国家建构困局的根源

阿富汗困局是当前国际安全议题的重要组成部分,其国内暴力活动的外溢效应在很大程度上影响着地区乃至全球安全与秩序.阿富汗的政治动荡自20世纪70年代持续至今,实现阿富汗政治稳定的关键在于完成现代国家政治体制的建构.阿富汗的国家建设是全球性力量、区域性力量和国内独特的社会文化力量之间复杂博弈的过程.通过场域理论和过程分析的重新诠释,本文认为在阿富汗国家建构的历史过程中,其政治结构包含了内外多种竞争性力量,并在多次互动过程中造就了阿富汗碎片化的政治结构.而政治结构、精英惯习和外部干预之间形成的特殊组合类型,是阿富汗国家建构进程举步维艰和极具"特殊性"的根本原因.在实践过程中,阿富汗政治结构的脆弱性与频繁的外部干预相结合,使得阿富汗长期难以形成稳定的政治秩序.     

塔利班：虽“塌”仍“利”？

近期，阿富汗举行了自塔利班政权倒台以来的第二届总统选举。数十天已然逝去，然而有关候选人之一的首任总统卡尔扎伊操纵选举、严重舞弊的各种纷争却愈演愈烈，致使阿富汗独立选举委员会迟迟未能公布最终选举结果。大选之后的阿富汗非但没有迎来人们期盼已久的和平安宁，反倒令国际社会徒增几许忧虑。这其中，塔利班可能卷土重来的阴云始终挥之不去。     

“奥巴马主义”与叙利亚危机

叙利亚危机是"阿拉伯之春"引发的一场极其复杂的地缘政治博弈,是集内战和反恐于一体、大国干涉和地区力量介入相交织的冲突,也是在美国中东战略收缩背景下发生的重大事件,因而成为观察美国中东战略和外交调整的重要视角。在"奥巴马主义"的指导下,美国坚持采用"以压促谈"的方式参与叙利亚危机进程,避免因军事卷入而重蹈伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争的覆辙,并注重发挥多边作用,试图通过力量制衡和利益置换来实现稳定叙利亚局势的目的,进而服务于美国的中东核心利益及中东政策。美国当选总统特朗普的新保守主义和孤立主义倾向,可能使"奥巴马主义"未来在美国的叙利亚政策乃至整个中东政策中得到延续。     

多维理论视域中的能源政治与安全观

关于国际能源政治及其安全的各派理论观点虽视角各异,但其相互间实际上是互为交叉和影响,并日益呈现出共同特征.随着冷战后世界经济全球化进程的加速,各国在能源领域的相互依存日渐加强,既竞争又协调成为国际能源政治的主流.由此各方越来越重视能源领域的国际合作及其国际机制的建设,主张通过国际合作与协调来实现能源安全,将维护能源安全与实现经济和社会的可持续发展、与国家的对外政治和经济关系紧密联系起来.     

对罗斯福总统就职演讲的批评话语分析

批评话语分析作为一种较新的语言研究方法,常常用于分析政治语篇。本文将以系统功能语法为基础,批评话语分析为框架,从词汇、及物性及情态三个方面对罗斯福总统第一次就职演讲进行分析,将语篇分析理论与当时美国所面临的重大经济、社会问题相结合,综合考量罗斯福总统的就职演讲中语言特色和不同之处,找出其广受欢迎、大获成功的原因。     

特朗普就职演讲的话语策略分析

美国总统的就职演讲稿历来被语言学界的学者作为分析研究的目标来对待。通过对演讲稿中人称指示以及语境等的分析,可以归纳出发言人所采取的话语策略,从而揭示其所隐藏的政治意图和传达使命。文章首先介绍了美国总统特朗普和就职演讲的语篇特点,而后从语用学的角度对该演讲稿进行综合分析,旨在揭示出总统的就职演讲时如何突出当前美国流行的民粹主义。     

宪法公投对后穆巴拉克时代埃及社会政治的影响

穆巴拉克政权的倒台开启了埃及政治重建进程。2012年岁末围绕宪法公投的政治危机乃是"一·二五"革命后,埃及社会政治力量格局演进的逻辑结果。伊斯兰主义者、世俗自由派和军方是后穆巴拉克时代左右埃及社会进程的三大力量。宪法危机的实质是未来埃及社会政治走向的大博弈,其背后是埃及宗教与世俗力量的对决以及总统与司法部门的冲突。军方在埃及政治经济事务中的利益和影响盘根错节,其在平衡宗教、世俗两派中努力保持"局势仲裁者"角色。在相当程度上,这场宪法公投危机折射出埃及乃至整个中东变局曲折复杂的演进态势及其发展前景。穆尔西访华有助于推动中埃战略合作关系迈上新台阶。     

从阿富汗变局解析卡塔尔的调停外交

卡塔尔调停外交在阿富汗变局中发挥了重要作用。卡塔尔对阿富汗局势的影响始于允许阿富汗塔利班在多哈设立外交机构,随后卡塔尔又促成美国与阿富汗塔利班达成和平协议。阿富汗变局发生后,卡塔尔协助美方人员从阿撤离,展开密集外交调停,成为阿富汗临时政府与外部沟通的桥梁。卡塔尔投身阿富汗调停外交的动机包括：将油气财富转化为国际影响力;实施扈从战略,加强与美国的盟友关系;推行伊斯兰主义的价值观外交;实施国家品牌战略,增强软实力,提高国际影响力。卡塔尔的调停外交实践为小国外交的理论与实践带来了启示,然而缺乏巩固调停成果的长效机制、内外政策相悖、调停外交反噬自身等制约因素,使卡塔尔调停外交存在明显局限。     

从阿富汗变局解析卡塔尔的调停外交北大核心CSSCI

卡塔尔调停外交在阿富汗变局中发挥了重要作用。卡塔尔对阿富汗局势的影响始于允许阿富汗塔利班在多哈设立外交机构,随后卡塔尔又促成美国与阿富汗塔利班达成和平协议。阿富汗变局发生后,卡塔尔协助美方人员从阿撤离,展开密集外交调停,成为阿富汗临时政府与外部沟通的桥梁。卡塔尔投身阿富汗调停外交的动机包括:将油气财富转化为国际影响力;实施扈从战略,加强与美国的盟友关系;推行伊斯兰主义的价值观外交;实施国家品牌战略,增强软实力,提高国际影响力。卡塔尔的调停外交实践为小国外交的理论与实践带来了启示,然而缺乏巩固调停成果的长效机制、内外政策相悖、调停外交反噬自身等制约因素,使卡塔尔调停外交存在明显局限。     

The Political Gender Gap in Afghanistan

Women’s empowerment has become a salient issue in nation building in recent times. The need to secure basic human rights may well be at the core of the attention, but development experts appear to have recognized the core role of women in family and community well-being in developing countries and are beginning to tout the importance of women’s empowerment in all the aspects of development policies as reflected in the European Union’s Millennium Development Goals. This study explores political gender differences in Afghanistan, a Muslim country of extensive gender differentiation. The gender disparities we observe are not what one might have expected. Men outperform women only in those specific areas where the prohibitive structural and social limitations placed on women by the larger Afghan society would predict. We contend that these gaps would attenuate as Afghanistan’s nascent democracy deepens and extends more freedoms to Afghan women.     

Gender,visuality and violence: visual securitization and the 2001 war in Afghanistan

Visual securitization (the discursive processes by which images are assigned security implications) is integral to understanding how war and political violence is made possible. However, its insights have yet to be coupled with feminist international relations (IR) scholarship, which is alert to the connections between gender and (in)security. This article synthesizes these two research areas through Lene Hansen’s (2011) framework of visual securitization to investigate the gendered logics that underpinned the 2001 war in Afghanistan. By analyzing 123 photojournalistic images alongside American media texts and foreign policy discourse, I argue western images of Afghan women enacted a specific visuality through which they became constructed as a legitimate matter of security. The article makes two important contributions through this analysis. Firstly, it extends feminist understanding of the war in Afghanistan by demonstrating how the interplay between the visual and textual, and the gendered and racial logics operating within such interplay, visually produced Afghan women as a referent object of security. Secondly, this argument illustrates how gender can be critical in enabling the acceptance of visual securitizations, and how such securitizations can be enacted through gendered representations of insecurity and threat.     

2009年中东大选述评

2009年,以色列、伊朗和阿富汗等中东国家相继举行大选。以色列"利库德集团"时隔四年重执权柄,伊朗保守派竞选连任成功,阿富汗普什图族则再掌政权。中东大选表现出社会政治发展的转型性和国家安全的现实威胁性两大共性特征,而不同的历史文化又使其表现出政治发展道路的多样性和政治发展水平的不平衡性等个性特征。一系列大选将对"巴以和平进程"、"伊朗核问题"和"阿富汗重建"产生一定的影响。     

2009年中东大选述评

2009年,以色列、伊朗和阿富汗等中东国家相继举行大选。以色列利库德集团时隔四年重执权柄,伊朗保守派竞选连任成功,阿富汗普什图族则再掌政权。中东大选表现出社会政治发展的转型性和国家安全的现实威胁性两大共性特征,而不同的历史文化又使其表现出政治发展道路的多样性和政治发展水平的不平衡性等个性特征。一系列大选将对巴以和平进程、伊朗核问题和阿富汗重建产生一定的影响。     

Afghanistan: A Change of Course?

The situation in Afghanistan today is not what the international community was planning it to be, 7 years ago when the Bonn Agreement was signed. Deterioration of security, weak governance, corruption, high narcotic production and trade, slow reconstruction process and consequent people’s disappointment are some of the features of that situation. Kabul and its international partners had a very little success in restoring peace and security, and a new phase of strategic re-thinking is in process. This article analyzes the different aspects of Afghan reconstruction and military intervention, their strengths and weaknesses, and outlines some urgent actions to be taken by all concerned actors.

The (in)security of gender in Afghanistan’s peacebuilding project: hybridity and affect

In this article I draw on a feminist approach to hybridity to explore interview data and observations from my field research in Afghanistan. I argue that there is a logic of masculinist protection influencing the affective environment of the peacebuilding project there. The combination of a perceived patriarchal context in Afghanistan and security routines protecting civilian internationals (and Afghan elites), which rely on hypermasculine signifiers, help to create and perpetuate the conditions in which the female (for both internationals and Afghans) is marked with insecurity. I point to hybridity between the foreign and female experience, as well as resistance and reflexivity within my research. Throughout I explore fragments of power hierarchies that cut through the meaning of gender, rendering the female state a disempowering one, always referenced in some uncertain, hybrid way as protected or in need of protection.     

Afghanistan – The End of the Bonn Process

The Afghanistan of the new millennium represents a significant test of the latest attempts to allow the coexistence of Western law principles and Islamic law – an issue that has been accompanying the East–West relations since the first colonial relations. The meaning of the path followed by Afghanistan is fully and clearly outlined when we consider that from 1996 to 2001 the Talibans turned this country into an emblem of the strict enforcement of the shari'a and of a radical contrast to Western countries. The presence of Osama bin Laden turned Afghanistan into the base of a global network of Islamic extremism, which interpreted religion as a motive and a justification for the most heinous actions, aiming at countering global powers. After 11 September 2001, and the subsequent rapid repulse of the Talibans, the international community undertook to support the reconstruction of a country devastated by 23 years of war, immediately giving back the country sovereignty to the representatives of the Afghan people. The still undergoing process of reconstruction of democratic state structures was not therefore entirely ``imposed' from outside of Afghanistan; it was rather mediated by a national political class that is acquiring increasing legitimacy through the carrying out of democratic elections. A reconstruction process of Afghanistan on a sound basis cannot but take into consideration the history of a population that always and successfully opposed foreign rules, and that twice in the 20th century, in 1929 and in 1973, rejected the state visions inspired to the experiences of other countries. The history of Afghanistan is strewn with moments of confrontation and fight against ``modernity', in which ethnic and tribal dynamics always prevailed. These dynamics, although fragmented, were marked by a strong national identity, also based on the religious bond. However, it must be recalled that the constitution passed on January 2004, in compliance with the guidelines provided for in the Bonn Agreement of December 2001, represents the seventh constitutional charter Afghanistan has adopted over the last 80 years (1923, 1931, 1964, 1977, 1987 and 1990). The country therefore owns a remarkable judicial inheritance that also includes a significant tradition of protection of rights.     

The specter of failure: rendering Afghan women as sites of precarity in empowerment regimes

This article analyzes how the category of “Afghan women” and discourses of precarity intersect within the women’s empowerment regime in Afghanistan. By examining an NGO that seeks to empower women through writing, I argue that staff members draw upon precarity as a go-to logic to describe the state of Afghan women writers’ successes under conditions of insecurity and limited communication. Specifically, it is writers’ desires to subvert their social orders and to carve out their own futures that staff members and writing coordinators frame as subject to potential destruction. While recent work has highlighted the importance of recognizing the precarious lifeworlds of vulnerable populations, this article points to the potential implications of a hyper-recognition of precarity – namely, the obscuring of the complexities of individual women’s past and present realities. Through analyzing the pedagogies of one empowerment NGO working with women in a post-9/11 Afghanistan, I show how the logic of precarity is concerned with the vulnerability of women’s desires and sentiments, rather than their material and political vulnerabilities. It is thus deeply inflected by a historically situated “common sense” about which potentialities and aspirations are inherent to Afghan women.     

阿尔及利亚原教旨主义组织研究

自20世纪八十年代末以来，阿尔及利亚饱经内乱和内战之苦，由伊斯兰原教旨主义势力挑起的这场空前浩劫，已夺走了该国10多万无辜的生命。进入新千年以来，阿尔及利亚国内和解进程曾一度取得了令人瞩目的成就，但近两年来，该国安全局势再度严重恶化，恐怖袭击时有发生，特别是2007年4月11日和12月11日发生在首都阿尔及尔的恐怖爆炸事件，总伤亡人数近300人，引起了国际社会的高度关注。阿国内安全局势的动荡与反复，从一个侧面反映了阿政府和人民与伊斯兰极端势力斗争的长期性、艰巨性和复杂性。本文试图从历史、现状等多个角度，来透视阿伊斯兰原教旨主义势力的发展轨迹。